I think this is well worth thinking about in terms of a future for labour:
Labour’s heartlands may be gone for ever. It needs to find new ones
Labour’s heartlands may be gone for ever. It needs to find new ones
Next Labour leader - Starmer and Rayner win
- Thread starter Kaos
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What are you basing this on? Myself and most of my social circle are millennials and all but a few would identify as centrists. I’d also describe 9/11 as very much a millennial crisis as it has shaped the world for half our lives...
I also think you are misrepresenting the side you like, the majority of whom are still condemning the electorate for being too stupid to vote for Labour’s failed socialist manifesto and failed (three times now) leader. There are also plenty of people in this group who describe leave voters as morons, if not more than in the centrist group...
Nerds....... but no really, I'm going off voting patterns(Mostly of Millennials in the UK & US). The Labour Party has over the last two elections been running on a platform of left social democracy(So not centrism)and both times has won the under 40 vote, something similar has happened in the US, with Bernie Sanders and millennial voters.
Keir Milburn book Generation Left is great on this. Here's a decent talk from him
Also I would argue that ''common sense'' isn't so much how people political identify(Most people don't really have a realised political identity) but among many things, what is political possible. Lots of the older generation view labour plans as types of fairytales, the idea of planting 2 billion trees in 20 years(Which is completely possible btw), is for the old voters no different then promising to build a warp drive from Star Trek. The common sense of older generations(Which is formed by the political crisis they've experienced) stops them from believing that big projects can be achieved by the state and that the only solution is the free market(Although when it comes to climate change, older people has simply checked out now and gone full death cult, ''burning the planet to own Greta'').
So unless you and you're mates voted Lib Dem or Green in the last two elections(Which would mark you out from most millennial voters)then you voted for a party that has completely gone against this free market common sense of the past 40 odd years(Or if you're Scottish you voted for a pro ''left'' independence party).
9/11 didn't shape the millennial generation in the same way as it did the older generations.Centrist foreign policy after 9/11 of mass surveillance, foreign intervention, drone bombs and the resulting Clash Of Civilisations gave Centrist politics(Politicians of the Baby Boomer and Gen X generations)a common sense of good guys vs bad extremists(Centrists talked about bombing Libya as if they were Churchill fighting Nazi Germany). For millennials, 9/11 resulted in the ''war on terror'' which yes has been with us for most of our lives, but its been the background noise and if anything created something of a anti intervention politics(In the case of Labour Party, it was something closer to a anti imperialist foreign policy)
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Can't see what Salma Hamid as done wrong.
Blairs analysis. As ever, refreshingly clear thinking.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...not-make-itself-feel-better-its-about-winning
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...not-make-itself-feel-better-its-about-winning
I’d argue you have missed the most important influences of all -mass university attendance and structural changes in the economy (amplified by, but not caused by, the financial crisis). You now have a large cohort of young, educated people (there is a correlation between education level and political identification) who have less purchasing power than similar age cohorts of the past.
No need to throw in 9/11 etc here. The Pinch by David Willetts is good on the inter generational divide and in fact predicted it back in 2010.
A very good analysis.
I don't agree with Blair's politics but he's streets ahead of any current UK politician.
Does anyone listen to that war criminal nowadays.
Labour won among the under 40s, but it's not like they were the universal choice. Just over 1/2 of the under 40s voted for those other than Labour, so putting these generations into neat little boxes linked by grand narratives doesn't hold up to much scrutiny IMO.
The most noticeable millennials in the political arena are generally leftists, but most people in most generations go unnoticed. A majority of millennials voted for Labour, but how many of those did it because they were firmly in favour of Labour's leftist position (as opposed to the multitude of other factors like being anti-Brexit, anti-Boris Johnson, etc.)? That's a much more complicated story that people just gloss over with their own assumptions.
Even amongst generations there's quite noticeable divisions, e.g. twice as many (voting age) men in Gen Z voting for the Conservatives compared to girls. And those differences grow further when you split e.g. millennials by education. The broad patterns do exist but we overlook the millions of people that don't fit that pattern to suit our own narratives.
Men Gen Zers are gamers, so of course they are tory scum.
The common sense argument isn't that people are ''firmly in favour of Labour leftist positions'' but that they are open(Due to certain political events) to the arguments of left social democracy unlike older generations(That doesn't mean they are guaranteed to vote for it). None of this is putting generations in little neat boxes and again this is one tiny part of the argument.
It is of course more complicated(We've haven't touched on work in the 21st century, the effects of being debt, the revolutionary effect of capitalism etc etc), people have produced books on this subject(I would really recommend Keir Milburn book Generation Left), so its sort of impossible to fit all this into a single forum post(Also I don't really want to spend an hour writing a post, for someone to come along and say 'well actually you missed x, so your argument is useless).
But......
The fact that a game show host is President of the most powerful country in the world and less than a month ago a bunch of former miners voted for a tory government, I wouldn't write off a very vulgar political reading of the world(The problem with vulgar marxism is that it tends to be correct).
The last is part is sort of a joke but also not really
Such a tired, lazy comment.
Personal preference with added insights.
1. RBL, cause she's not awful.
2. Nandy, cause I don't know enough to think of anything overtly toxic about her.
3. Phillips and Thornberry, cause the reasons for the failure would be darkly funny, in different ways for each.
5. Starmer, cause it would just be a depressing march to a pointless defeat.
1. RBL, cause she's not awful.
2. Nandy, cause I don't know enough to think of anything overtly toxic about her.
3. Phillips and Thornberry, cause the reasons for the failure would be darkly funny, in different ways for each.
5. Starmer, cause it would just be a depressing march to a pointless defeat.
Wouldn't it make more sense to base the decision on the new deputy labour leader on whoever is chosen to be leader?
Or just scrap the position. It adds nothing helpful.
Starmer got more nominations that David Miliband in 2010, somewhat surprising.
The PLP kindly doing their bit to make sure that if we end up with Starmer and Murray they can't avoid the blame for us choosing two fecking white men again.
RLB is terrible.
I've seen you hilariously and originally refer to her as 'wrong-daily' before. I am aware she's not your cup of tea.
Honestly, she's not perfect to me either but she's the only one I can currently imagine voting for in a general election.
She is effectively continuity Corbyn. I don’t think any leader leads Labour to victory in 2024, this period is about laying the groundwork and revitalising the party for victory after 2024. Don’t think RLB has it in her. She’s been awful in her interviews I’ve seen her in since she announced her leadership bid.
Lets see how the hustings go.
We know the science. A Labour victory on a centre or centre-left platform doesn't promise the change nations need to make to save us. It's also not going to happen, given how aware younger people are of climate change. Far too many will just vote Green if Labour doesn't commit to radical transformation.
Agree on the hustings. Apart from Phillips, who I feel I know more than enough about, I'm interested to hear their pitches.
A very good analysis indeed. As I've said previously I do agree with Blair's politics.
The only stain and it is a very big stain is the Iraq War episode.
He is always worth listening to but few do because of that.
From the quotes I've seen, nor can I.
He's equally as insightful and thought provoking in person in truth.
Worth a read
That looks a very close thing at present, given you'd think Starmer would be likely to pick up more of Phillips and Nandy's support than our Becky.
Just watched Nandy on Andrew Neil and I thought she did well. She seemed to have a well-rounded knowledge on issues across the board, unusually she didn't duck any questions, and she stood up to him when many don't seem able to.
The poll said 51-49 to RLB apparently, on second preferences.
Amongst labourlist readers. I've got a vote and I've no idea what labourlist is. I wouldn't be surprised if I were in a minority, but I doubt I'm unique.
At the risk of appearing dismissive, I wouldn't be surprised if you're a pretty insignificant minority to begin with and once we get as far as people who were bothered to respond to the polling I imagine we're talking almost exclusively members of the Labour party.
Good timing, it's just been discussed on BBC's politicslive and no one has made the point I made, so you're likely right. We'll know if the actual ballot replicates the survey of course.
So Corbyn number 2 on the way? That'll be the end of Labour then and another decade at least of Conservative government.