NBA Thread 2013-2014

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PER is only useful as a very rough estimate.

Rondo, Cousins, Williams, Irving, Wall, Thompson, Nowitzki have no business being compared to Howard.

Rondo can't shoot, Cousins isn't close to Howard, Williams' years as an elite player have passed him by, Irving can't play defense, Wall has yet to play even a single full season at an elite level, Thompson is too limited a player and Nowitzki is too old.


Howard is the best big man since the Shaq/Duncan/Dirk/Garnett/Webber years and it's not close either.

Wow, what a shocker. You've just demonstrated that you haven't got a clue what you're talking about. Dwight is a better defender but Cousins is head and shoulders above him in literally every single other category and it's not even close (rebounding is a wash - offensively the gap is astronomical in what they can do). I'd wager you haven't even seen the Kings play more than once or twice all year, which goes a long way towards explaining how you can be so spectacularly wrong.

Howard really isn't that good. One of the best centers yes (in a center-deprived league), but his numbers are better than his actual impact. He's declining and still has a pretty poor offensive game outside of dunks and anything outside of 3 feet of the basket. Once his athleticism is fully depleted he'll be borderline useless.
 
Wow, what a shocker. You've just demonstrated that you haven't got a clue what you're talking about. Dwight is a better defender but Cousins is head and shoulders above him in literally every single other category and it's not even close (rebounding is a wash - offensively the gap is astronomical in what they can do). I'd wager you haven't even seen the Kings play more than once or twice all year, which goes a long way towards explaining how you can be so spectacularly wrong.

Howard really isn't that good. One of the best centers yes (in a center-deprived league), but his numbers are better than his actual impact. He's declining and still has a pretty poor offensive game outside of dunks and anything outside of 3 feet of the basket. Once his athleticism is fully depleted he'll be borderline useless.


Whoa there. Settle down. If anyone is spectacularly wrong, it's you.

First off, rebounding isn't "a wash". Howard averages 13 rebounds per game for his career. Cousins averages 10.
Offensively, Howard averages 18 points on 58% shooting. Cousins averages 18 points on 46% shooting. For all the talk about how talented Cousins is (and he is REALLY talented), that hasn't translated to being a great offensive player until this year. Having more tricks in the arsenal doesn't really matter when no one can stop the #1 trick that Howard has.


Howard is a better rebounding, 13>10.
Howard is a better offensive player, same PPG Howard shooting 12% better.
Howard is a much better defender, 3 time defensive player of the year to er, nothing.
Howard led a team starting Turkoglu, Lewis, Johnson and Lee to the NBA Finals. Cousins led a team with Tyreke Evans, Patrick Patterson and Isaiah Thomas to a 28-54 record.


Howard is a better scorer, a better rebounder, a better defender and has been on 50 win teams five times. More to the point, your Kings fan bias is showing through badly. I don't have a horse in this race. I'm just going by the facts.
 
Whoa there. Settle down. If anyone is spectacularly wrong, it's you.

I was hoping you'd say something like that. This is going to be fun. Where to start...

First off, rebounding isn't "a wash". Howard averages 13 rebounds per game for his career. Cousins averages 10.
Offensively, Howard averages 18 points on 58% shooting. Cousins averages 18 points on 46% shooting. For all the talk about how talented Cousins is (and he is REALLY talented), that hasn't translated to being a great offensive player until this year. Having more tricks in the arsenal doesn't really matter when no one can stop the #1 trick that Howard has.


Howard is a better rebounding, 13>10.

Rebounding is a wash. We're talking about them as players now. It makes no sense to go by career stats given that Howard has been in the league for much longer than Cousins, and your initial comment (which I responded to) said Cousins "isn't close to Howard." You made a nice try at diverting attention from current stats (which don't come close to telling the whole story, btw). Right now Cuz is averaging 11.6 boards in 32mpg. Dwight is averaging 12.3 boards in 34mpg. Per 36, Cuz is averaging 13.1rpg while Dwight is also averaging exactly 13.1rpg. As I said, it's a wash. Dwight averages more boards cause he gets more minutes. It's that simple - they're identical as rebounders.


Howard is a better offensive player, same PPG Howard shooting 12% better.

Surely this is tongue-in-cheek? You can't honestly believe it all comes down to FG%. It plays a part, I'll give you that, but to suggest Dwight is better offensively is just laughable. Cousins averages 22ppg, Dwight averages 18ppg (in more minutes). Cousins has the most diverse offensive game of any center in the league. There's not another center in the league who can handle, pass, and shoot from the perimeter like he can. And that's not even taking into account how skilled he is in the low post. Does he have work to do? Absolutely, but he's the best offensive center in the game and it's not really close. Certainly Howard is nowhere near being his closest competitor. Cousins has number 1 option talent offensively - try to go all the way with Dwight as your number 1 option and see what happens.

Dwight takes 93% of his shots within 8 feet of the basket, making 61% of these shots. Most of these are dunks, putbacks and short hooks. His offensive game is still under-developed, he can't put the ball on the floor and he has no touch. He has no face-up game and can't shoot. Get Dwight out of this zone and he shoots 20%. Not to mention his abysmal FT shooting - he gets to the line 9 times a game and shot 54% on the year.
DeMarcus takes 67% of his shots within 8 feet of the basket, making 54%. Take him outside of this zone and he shoots 37%. Not massively impressive but far, far better than Dwight's clip considering how many more shots he takes from these areas. Cousins also gets to the line 8 times a game, making 75%. Another advantage to Cuz.
Now you can say that Dwight sticks to what he's good at, and that's true. He's good at dunking and put-backs. You don't build an offense around that. Cousins has a unique offensive skillset that you can build around. Dwight doesn't have half as many offensive tools as Cousins, and shooting a higher percentage on less shots is not indicative that he does. I'm surprised you'd even try to make this argument as it's clear to anyone whose watched them play that Cousins has already far surpassed Dwight offensively.

Passing - well this is a landslide. Dwight has improved in this aspect and usually makes the right pass. He's averaging 1.8apg. He can't make difficult passes on a regular basis. Cousins has the ability to make beautiful passes that very few other big men in the league can make. You can put Cuz at the high-post and run the offense through him if you wanted. He's averaging 3.2apg (in less minutes). Another obvious advantage for Cuz.


Howard is a much better defender, 3 time defensive player of the year to er, nothing.

No argument here, though Dwight's impact on the defensive end is undoubtedly wavering. He's not the defender he once was, though he's clearly still a better defender than DeMarcus. Meanwhile Cousins is steadily improving on this end, though he'll never be the help defender that Dwight is/was.

Howard led a team starting Turkoglu, Lewis, Johnson and Lee to the NBA Finals. Cousins led a team with Tyreke Evans, Patrick Patterson and Isaiah Thomas to a 28-54 record.

I don't even know what that means considering the supporting cast of the Magic was far better than anything that's been on the Kings since DeMarcus has arrived. Patrick Patterson? And the last pick in the draft? With an ownership group that was actively sabotaging the team on the court in order to drive fans away and open the door to moving the team... Numerous pathetic coaches... Yeah, Cuz really should have been bringing them to the playoffs. I won't even bring up the fact of what happened to Dwight's team in the finals or what conference they play in.


Howard is a better scorer, a better rebounder, a better defender and has been on 50 win teams five times. More to the point, your Kings fan bias is showing through badly. I don't have a horse in this race. I'm just going by the facts.

Nope. Howard is a better defender who has been fortunate enough to have been on much better teams throughout his career. Cousins is a better scorer, passer, rebounding is a wash. Feel for the game DeMarcus > Dwight. I'd also take DeMarcus intensity and attitude any day over Dwight who is more concerned about what advert he'll be on next. He's a prima donna. Cousins is immature but at least you know it's because he wants to win.

Dwight also has the fortune of having a very marketable personality which has led to him constantly being in the spotlight. Not so much DeMarcus who has gotten a bad reputation and doesn't get any of the credit he deserves nationally. This has led to the casual fan concluding that Dwight > Cousins when really it hasn't even been close to the truth for quite a while now.
 
This doesn't pertain to the Dwight comparison so I'll put it in spoilers for anyone that wants to avoid it. Just puts into context what sort of season DeMarcus has had and what PER can, and does, mean. I don't take credit for the post as it wasn't written by me.

So, with ESPN coming out with an article once again rehashing the same old tired is he a bad guy or misunderstood stuff, I decided it was time for me to pick thing sup and start unleashing some numbers into the fray.

We'll start with these. These are the stats for all of the league's starting centers this season -- in cases where mucked up teams like the Bucks had all kinds of starters, I went with the guy who has started the most games. In the case of Philly/Cleveland I took both Hawes and Varejao over any of the short term jokes who might have been options. In the case of New Jersey and Atlanta I left off Horford and Lopez entirely since they had only played in 22 and 19 games respectively and calling any of their replacements "starters" was kind of ridiculous.

Sorted by PER
Cousins PER: 26.3 Stats: 32.0min 22.2pts (.497FG .726FT (.558TS)) 11.6reb 3.0ast 1.5stl 1.3blk 3.5TO
Jeffersn PER: 22.5 Stats: 34.6min 21.6pts (.506FG .685FT (.529TS)) 10.4reb 2.1ast 0.9stl 1.1blk 1.6TO
Drumm PER: 21.9 Stats: 32.1min 13.0pts (.619FG .417FT (.597TS)) 12.8reb 0.4ast 1.2stl 1.7blk 1.3TO
Duncan PER: 21.6 Stats: 29.2min 15.2pts (.494FG .726FT (.537TS)) 9.8reb 3.1ast 0.6stl 1.9blk 2.2TO
Howard PER: 21.6 Stats: 34.0min 18.5pts (.590FG .548FT (.600TS)) 12.3reb 1.8ast 0.9stl 1.8blk 3.3TO
Pekovic PER: 20.7 Stats: 30.8min 17.4pts (.540FG .747FT (.582TS)) 8.7reb 0.9ast 0.6stl 0.4blk 1.6TO
JoaNoah PER: 20.1 Stats: 34.9min 12.5pts (.482FG .484FT (.537TS)) 11.1reb 5.2ast 1.2stl 1.5blk 2.4TO
ChrBosh PER: 19.7 Stats: 31.8min 16.4pts (.520FG .821FT (.601TS)) 6.6reb 1.1ast 1.0stl 1.0blk 1.5TO
PaGasol PER: 19.4 Stats: 31.4min 17.4pts (.480FG .736FT (.522TS)) 9.7reb 3.4ast 0.5stl 1.5blk 2.4TO
Vucevic PER: 18.8 Stats: 31.8min 14.2pts (.507FG .766FT (.536TS)) 11.0reb 1.8ast 1.1stl 0.9blk 2.0TO
DFavors PER: 18.6 Stats: 30.1min 12.9pts (.512FG .667FT (.549TS)) 8.8reb 1.2ast 1.0stl 1.5blk 1.7TO
DJordan PER: 17.9 Stats: 35.5min 10.3pts (.670FG .449FT (.632TS)) 13.8reb 0.9ast 1.0stl 2.4blk 1.5TO
MGasol PER: 17.7 Stats: 33.0min 14.1pts (.461FG .783FT (.517TS)) 6.9reb 3.6ast 1.0stl 1.3blk 1.9TO
RLopez PER: 17.6 Stats: 33.0min 14.1pts (.461FG .783FT (.517TS)) 6.9reb 3.6ast 1.0stl 1.3blk 1.9TO
MBogut PER: 17.4 Stats: 26.4min 7.6pts (.627FG .344FT (.610TS)) 10.1reb 1.7ast 0.7stl 1.9blk 1.5TO
Varejao PER: 17.4 Stats: 28.3min 8.6pts (.494FG .685FT (.527TS)) 10.0reb 2.2ast 1.1stl 0.7blk 1.2TO
MGortat PER: 17.3 Stats: 32.7min 13.0pts (.539FG .683FT (.565TS)) 9.4reb 1.7ast 0.5stl 1.5blk 1.5TO
Chandlr PER: 17.0 Stats: 30.6min 9.1pts (.601FG .619FT (.619TS)) 9.8reb 1.1ast 0.7stl 1.2blk 1.3TO
Dalembt PER: 16.6 Stats: 20.1min 6.5pts (.568FG .717FT (.602TS)) 6.6reb 0.5ast 0.5stl 1.2blk 1.2TO
Sullingr PER: 16.5 Stats: 27.3min 13.1pts (.424FG .774FT (.493TS)) 8.1reb 1.6ast 0.5stl 0.6blk 1.6TO
Hickson PER: 16.3 Stats: 26.9min 11.8pts (.508FG .517FT (.521TS)) 9.2reb 1.4ast 0.7stl 0.7blk 1.9TO
SHawes PER: 15.5 Stats: 31.2min 13.3pts (.454FG .781FT (.551TS)) 8.3reb 3.0ast 0.5stl 1.2blk 2.2TO
Valancns PER: 15.3 Stats: 27.9min 10.8pts (.525FG .761FT (.573TS)) 8.5reb 0.7ast 0.3stl 0.9blk 1.7TO
Plumlee PER: 14.7 Stats: 24.8min 8.3pts (.513FG .560FT (.525TS)) 7.9reb 0.5ast 0.6stl 1.2blk 1.4TO
Hibbert PER: 14.3 Stats: 30.1min 11.2pts (.453FG .771FT (.513TS)) 6.9reb 1.2ast 0.4stl 2.3blk 1.9TO
Pachulia PER: 13.9 Stats: 25.0min 7.4pts (.416FG .865FT (.496TS)) 6.3reb 2.5ast 1.0stl 0.2blk 1.7TO
JaSmith PER: 12.5 Stats: 26.8min 9.7pts (.465FG .780FT (.495TS)) 5.8reb 0.9ast 0.4stl 0.9blk 0.9TO
Perkins PER: 6.1 Stats: 19.7min 3.4pts (.442FG .559FT (.467TS)) 5.0reb 1.1ast 0.4stl 0.5blk 1.6TO


Amongst the 28 starting centers Cousins is:
1st in PER
1st in Points
4th in Rebounds
6th in Assists
1st in Steals
12th in Blocks
1st (last) in Turnovers


To give you some idea what a 26.3 PER means, its the 27th best PER season by a center in the modern NBA era (1980 onwards). Of the 26 better PER seasons:
11 belong to Shaq (made an All NBA team all 11 seasons (First, Second or Third)
6 belong to Admiral (made an All NBA team all 6 seasons (First or Second)
4 belong to Duncan (made an All NBA team all 4 seasons (First)
2 belong to Amare (made an All NBA team both seasons (Second)
1 belongs to Moses (made an All NBA team (First)
1 belongs to Hakeem (made an All NBA team (First)
1 belongs to Yao made an All NBA team (Second)

No center in the modern history of the NBA has EVER posted a PER as high as DeMarcus Cousins' this season, and not made All NBA.

The gap between Cuz's current season and the highest rated PER season by a center in the modern era (Admiral's 1993-94 MVP year at 30.7PER) is 4.4PER. The gap between Cuz's current season PER and his nearest competitor is 3.8PER.
 
I was hoping you'd say something like that. This is going to be fun. Where to start...



Rebounding is a wash. We're talking about them as players now. It makes no sense to go by career stats given that Howard has been in the league for much longer than Cousins, and your initial comment (which I responded to) said Cousins "isn't close to Howard." You made a nice try at diverting attention from current stats (which don't come close to telling the whole story, btw). Right now Cuz is averaging 11.6 boards in 32mpg. Dwight is averaging 12.3 boards in 34mpg. Per 36, Cuz is averaging 13.1rpg while Dwight is also averaging exactly 13.1rpg. As I said, it's a wash. Dwight averages more boards cause he gets more minutes. It's that simple - they're identical as rebounders.




Surely this is tongue-in-cheek? You can't honestly believe it all comes down to FG%. It plays a part, I'll give you that, but to suggest Dwight is better offensively is just laughable. Cousins averages 22ppg, Dwight averages 18ppg (in more minutes). Cousins has the most diverse offensive game of any center in the league. There's not another center in the league who can handle, pass, and shoot from the perimeter like he can. And that's not even taking into account how skilled he is in the low post. Does he have work to do? Absolutely, but he's the best offensive center in the game and it's not really close. Certainly Howard is nowhere near being his closest competitor. Cousins has number 1 option talent offensively - try to go all the way with Dwight as your number 1 option and see what happens.

Dwight takes 93% of his shots within 8 feet of the basket, making 61% of these shots. Most of these are dunks, putbacks and short hooks. His offensive game is still under-developed, he can't put the ball on the floor and he has no touch. He has no face-up game and can't shoot. Get Dwight out of this zone and he shoots 20%. Not to mention his abysmal FT shooting - he gets to the line 9 times a game and shot 54% on the year.
DeMarcus takes 67% of his shots within 8 feet of the basket, making 54%. Take him outside of this zone and he shoots 37%. Not massively impressive but far, far better than Dwight's clip considering how many more shots he takes from these areas. Cousins also gets to the line 8 times a game, making 75%. Another advantage to Cuz.
Now you can say that Dwight sticks to what he's good at, and that's true. He's good at dunking and put-backs. You don't build an offense around that. Cousins has a unique offensive skillset that you can build around. Dwight doesn't have half as many offensive tools as Cousins, and shooting a higher percentage on less shots is not indicative that he does. I'm surprised you'd even try to make this argument as it's clear to anyone whose watched them play that Cousins has already far surpassed Dwight offensively.

Passing - well this is a landslide. Dwight has improved in this aspect and usually makes the right pass. He's averaging 1.8apg. He can't make difficult passes on a regular basis. Cousins has the ability to make beautiful passes that very few other big men in the league can make. You can put Cuz at the high-post and run the offense through him if you wanted. He's averaging 3.2apg (in less minutes). Another obvious advantage for Cuz.




No argument here, though Dwight's impact on the defensive end is undoubtedly wavering. He's not the defender he once was, though he's clearly still a better defender than DeMarcus. Meanwhile Cousins is steadily improving on this end, though he'll never be the help defender that Dwight is/was.



I don't even know what that means considering the supporting cast of the Magic was far better than anything that's been on the Kings since DeMarcus has arrived. Patrick Patterson? And the last pick in the draft? With an ownership group that was actively sabotaging the team on the court in order to drive fans away and open the door to moving the team... Numerous pathetic coaches... Yeah, Cuz really should have been bringing them to the playoffs. I won't even bring up the fact of what happened to Dwight's team in the finals or what conference they play in.




Nope. Howard is a better defender who has been fortunate enough to have been on much better teams throughout his career. Cousins is a better scorer, passer, rebounding is a wash. Feel for the game DeMarcus > Dwight. I'd also take DeMarcus intensity and attitude any day over Dwight who is more concerned about what advert he'll be on next. He's a prima donna. Cousins is immature but at least you know it's because he wants to win.

Dwight also has the fortune of having a very marketable personality which has led to him constantly being in the spotlight. Not so much DeMarcus who has gotten a bad reputation and doesn't get any of the credit he deserves nationally. This has led to the casual fan concluding that Dwight > Cousins when really it hasn't even been close to the truth for quite a while now.


Basically your entire arguments rests on the premise that what Cousins is doing this year is going to be what he does every year. I used career stats because I think it gives a better feel of what a player is capable of.

All that stuff about Cousins having more skills and being a better shooter is undoubtably true. But it doesn't mean anything if it doesn't translate to efficient offense. Dwight only takes shots close to the basket but he misses far less shots than Cousins. That matters. He's limited on offense but he is incredibly good at the thing he is limited too.

Until this year, Cousins shot 43, 45 and 46 percent. For a supposedly top level center, that's appallingly bad. Shaq never shot less than 56%. David Robinson didn't shoot below 50% until he was 35 years old. Tim Duncan has never shot below 48%. Garnett's worst full season was 47%.


I'm a huge fan of Cousins. He is immensely talented and if he can keep up this season for the next 6-8 years, he will be very fun to watch and good for the league. But he's not as good as Howard yet. Put it this way, there was a lot of debate in basketball circles about whether Cousins deserved a max contract last year. On the other hand, half a dozen teams were maneuvering their roster for a shot at paying Howard the max. Saying that Cousins has been better than Howard for quite a while now just shows your bias.
 
Basically your entire arguments rests on the premise that what Cousins is doing this year is going to be what he does every year. I used career stats because I think it gives a better feel of what a player is capable of.

All that stuff about Cousins having more skills and being a better shooter is undoubtably true. But it doesn't mean anything if it doesn't translate to efficient offense. Dwight only takes shots close to the basket but he misses far less shots than Cousins. That matters. He's limited on offense but he is incredibly good at the thing he is limited too.

Until this year, Cousins shot 43, 45 and 46 percent. For a supposedly top level center, that's appallingly bad. Shaq never shot less than 56%. David Robinson didn't shoot below 50% until he was 35 years old. Tim Duncan has never shot below 48%. Garnett's worst full season was 47%.


I'm a huge fan of Cousins. He is immensely talented and if he can keep up this season for the next 6-8 years, he will be very fun to watch and good for the league. But he's not as good as Howard yet. Put it this way, there was a lot of debate in basketball circles about whether Cousins deserved a max contract last year. On the other hand, half a dozen teams were maneuvering their roster for a shot at paying Howard the max. Saying that Cousins has been better than Howard for quite a while now just shows your bias.

I'd imagine Cousins will improve, not regress. He still has areas he can work on, it's scary how good he can be if he gets better - I have no doubt that he will.

I agree that he hasn't been efficient enough, a lot of this stems from the fact that he tries to do so much. It's a double edged sword. He has improved on that this year and will continue to do so. He still turns it over too much, but that's understandable as he handles it a lot on breaks etc..

We'll just agree to disagree re Howard. I think he's already a better player. He can do far more things on the court to help his team win. The debate re the max contract boiled down to Cousins character and not his skill set, to be fair. His talent clearly warrants a max level contract considering he's only 23 (fun fact - look up what all the great big men in history were putting up at 23 - and many of them on losing teams - and it becomes clear that Cousins is something very special).

Which players can continue at anything close to their peak level after their athleticism goes?

To be fair I didn't say anyone could play near to their peak level after losing their athleticism. I said Howard would be borderline useless. That's because he has no real skills to speak of - everything he does relies on his athleticism. You can't say the same about LeBron who has a fantastic all-round game. Sure his athleticism elevates him to one of the GOAT, but he'd still be a good player if he was just an average player. You can't say the same for Dwight IMO. He has nothing to fall back on once his athleticism goes.
 
The NBA should set up some sort of draft for supporters instead of players to ensure that each team gets a fair share of fans. Who do I sell this idea to?
 
Madness in the first quarter of Heat-Grizzlies. Zach Randolph is shooting 8 for 8, including his 2nd three pointer this season!

Grizzlies shooting 78%, Miami shooting 86% from beyond the arc (6 for 7).

Only 32-31 at the end of 1st quarter though.
 
Have a feeling that Mavs go over Spurs today. I love Dirk but I hope they don't, because I'm still rooting for Suns to make the play-offs.
 
What's your take, Danny? Think the Spurs are gonna beat the Heat this year?
Any team coming from the West will beat the Heat.

Heat is only going to the finals if Indiana beat themselves. I can even see an upset by Chicago/Brooklyn if they met Miami on the way. Not saying they're the favorites, but it will be a nervous series.

I really hope Wade is back for the playoffs (and by the playoffs I mean even the first round).
 
Any team coming from the West will beat the Heat.

Heat is only going to the finals if Indiana beat themselves. I can even see an upset by Chicago/Brooklyn if they met Miami on the way. Not saying they're the favorites, but it will be a nervous series.

I really hope Wade is back for the playoffs (and by the playoffs I mean even the first round).

So is this an issue of "Without a healthy Wade we can't win" or are there other issues?
 
So is this an issue of "Without a healthy Wade we can't win" or are there other issues?
Oh without Wade Miami are screwed. Totally screwed. Won't make the finals even if Indiana tried to beat themselves.

My statement was even with Wade. Wade will not come back 100% anyway, we all know that. He's already had a knee problem, another knee problem, an Achilles/ankle? problem, and now a hamstring (I think a back problem too)... But Wade is a must for the Heat to even have chance at a final appearance.

The winner of the final will be a West team this year regardless.
 
Someone did an interesting breakdown on the flopping problem. I can't remember if it was on reddit or a Jalen Rose grandland podcast though.
 
I think they'll win the East, and if Wade is back and at 75% at least for the Finals they'll beat the Spurs/Thunder. If not they'll probably lose.
So you think they'll win the East even without Wade?!

Indiana are the number 1 seed right now. They have a game against a Wade-less Heat tomorrow, with their squad fully rested. They should be the favorites to win it, which means they should finish the season as the number 1 seed, and with game 7 at Indiana I can't see Miami being the favorites. Unless Indiana's collapse continues (and they give up the number 1 seed), they have the edge imo.

By the way, remember the Lakers in 2011, when they were chasing a 3-peat and everybody was talking about them being the favorites just because "they were the defending champs", even though they didn't have a great season? What happened in the playoffs?