NBA Thread 2013-2014

Scheming is right. They will all re-sign when Pat Riley improves the roster. The problem I see is apparently LeBron wants a max contract which means Wade and Bosh will have to take even bigger cuts to sign any decent quality free agent. I thought LeBron might take a cut but it doesn't look that way.
 
Looks like Riley will have ~$55m of cap space to work with. That could mean the possibility of signing James + Wade + Bosh + another good player (Lowry?). Although James doesn't seem like he wants to take a pay-cut to return to Miami, unlike Wade and Bosh.

The Heat will still have the mid-level exception of $2.5m to work with. They also have Norris Cole as an asset in case they're thinking about trading him (especially if they get Lowry).

Chalmers is almost certainly leaving. Gutted for him, not only because he's leaving, but because he had his worst play-off performance at the worst possible time for him (contract-wise). Battier will most likely retire.

Allen, Lewis and Birdman could return for the minimum. Haslem will re-sign too, and he will also take a pay-cut but will get more guaranteed money.

A possible line-up (a bit optimistic probably) for next year could look like:

James
Wade
Bosh
Lowry
Allen
Birdman
Haslem
Lewis
Napier
Cole or somebody he'll be traded for
a $2.5m player
and a few players signing for the minimum to complete the roster.
 
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This is always the issue when you hire a former star player to coach especially one who did not cut his teeth as an assistant. These sort of power moves worked for Kidd when he was a star player. He was able to get Byron Scott fired when he was with the Nets. But it completely backfired on him this time. Also a weird year when it comes to coaching moves. The Knicks and the Warriors have a bidding war for someone who never coached which leads to Kerr getting 5 million a year, Tyronn Lue losing out on the Cavs job but, ends up becoming the highest paid assistant coach ever and Fisher getting 5 million a year from the Knicks.
 
gooDevil said:
It's like supporting Real.
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I wish there was a salary cap in football.

Meanwhile, it looks like Lowry is a bit of an optimistic target as Lebron is not willing to leave that much money on the table (probably a couple of millions max), which means the big 3 (+ Haslem) will only allow Miami to be under the salary cap to qualify for the $5.3m full mid-level exception (in addition to another $2m option) instead of taking big cuts to allow Miami to sign another quality free agent. (Bosh is said to accept something in the region of $15-16m which is $6-7m below the max).

Ariza's name is coming up now as a more realistic target.
 
Apparently Gasol and Pat Riley were in contact to discuss a possible deal.

The Heat are claiming now (in their talks with free agents) that they have ~$12m to offer after tying the big three (even with James earning the max), but it looks unlikely to me, and perhaps it's just meant to attract the attention of the big free agents to engage them in a serious discussion. Also, even if they had that 12m, if they spent on one player, they will have a really hard time filling the roster, as I heard it will possibly deny them the right to use the other exceptions, and will basically leave them with only the veteran minimum to work with.
 
How low do you think they can get Wade and Bosh to go?

Looks like they were on roughly 19 mil each last season. Wade has surely lost a lot of his value, he's not the same player he was at the beginning of his last contract. How much would another team pay for his services, 12 mil, 14 mil?

If Wade would take 10 mil and Bosh maybe 12 or 14 then it would certainly open a bit of space.

Considering Wade and Bosh opted out I have to think they're doing so to keep the 'Big 3' together in Miami while bringing in the best player they can with the money they save.

http://espn.go.com/nba/salaries
 
gooDevil said:
How low do you think they can get Wade and Bosh to go?

Looks like they were on roughly 19 mil each last season. Wade has surely lost a lot of his value, he's not the same player he was at the beginning of his last contract. How much would another team pay for his services, 12 mil, 14 mil?

If Wade would take 10 mil and Bosh maybe 12 or 14 then it would certainly open a bit of space.

Considering Wade and Bosh opted out I have to think they're doing so to keep the 'Big 3' together in Miami while bringing in the best player they can with the money they save.

http://espn.go.com/nba/salaries
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The most credible reports so far point out to the possibility of Bosh earning a salary starting at ~$14-15m, and Wade earning a salary starting at $13-14m. The reports of them accepting 11 and $12m turned out to be rubbish.

James on the other hand is not budging, and wants every penny of the max salary (starting at $20.7m). All 3 are most likely going to take ~$49m.

$49m + $2m (Cole) + $1m (Napier) + ~$5m (minimum for 10 players which have to be deducted when you're under the cap) = $57m. With the cap this year being $63m, that leaves Miami with only $6m to work with (don't forget they're re-signing Haslem too and that's $2.5m minimum).

The Heat realistically don't really have any room to work with. All this talk about Lowry, Deng, or even Gasol imo (unless he's willing to play for the mid-level) are just the usual media bs.

Unless Pat Riley works wonders with some quality FAs (convincing them to take big pay-cuts), the Heat are not going to improve hugely over last year.

Worth noting here though is that Wade and Bosh's future is almost 100% sealed (with both signing long contracts). They're both staying in Miami. It's only James that is still not yet guaranteed to re-sign, and the possibility is still open that he may only sign one or two year extension.

Away from Miami, the Pacers made a good deal today, signing C.J. Miles for a 4-year contract worth $18m. They also offered Stephenson a 5-year contract worth $44m, but apparently he thinks he's worth far more, and the negotiations stalled..

The Cavs on the other hand are said to be offering Hayward a 4-year near max deal, which is a questionable move imo, and may put an end to the speculation of James going back to Cleveland.
 
How about this for a rule:

You have to sign with the team that offers you the most money (per year over the life of the contract with 4 years max or some such).

That would sort out all this nonsense about stacking teams by players cutting salary, and would get the lower teams in the game quickly.
 
Danny1982 said:
The most credible reports so far point out to the possibility of Bosh earning a salary starting at ~$14-15m, and Wade earning a salary starting at $13-14m. The reports of them accepting 11 and $12m turned out to be rubbish.

James on the other hand is not budging, and wants every penny of the max salary (starting at $20.7m). All 3 are most likely going to take ~$49m.

$49m + $2m (Cole) + $1m (Napier) + ~$5m (minimum for 10 players which have to be deducted when you're under the cap) = $57m. With the cap this year being $63m, that leaves Miami with only $6m to work with (don't forget they're re-signing Haslem too and that's $2.5m minimum).

The Heat realistically don't really have any room to work with. All this talk about Lowry, Deng, or even Gasol imo (unless he's willing to play for the mid-level) are just the usual media bs.

Unless Pat Riley works wonders with some quality FAs (convincing them to take big pay-cuts), the Heat are not going to improve hugely over last year.

Worth noting here though is that Wade and Bosh's future is almost 100% sealed (with both signing long contracts). They're both staying in Miami. It's only James that is still not yet guaranteed to re-sign, and the possibility is still open that he may only sign one or two year extension.

Away from Miami, the Pacers made a good deal today, signing C.J. Miles for a 4-year contract worth $18m. They also offered Stephenson a 5-year contract worth $44m, but apparently he thinks he's worth far more, and the negotiations stalled..

The Cavs on the other hand are said to be offering Hayward a 4-year near max deal, which is a questionable move imo, and may put an end to the speculation of James going back to Cleveland.
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Can't the afford to go over the cap? Surely it would be worth it financially if they win more championships.
 
gooDevil said:
Can't the afford to go over the cap? Surely it would be worth it financially if they win more championships.
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They would want to, but the rules don't allow it. If the big 3 (or 2 of them) take pay-cuts, and the Heat try to pursue FAs with the cap space that's left, they will only have one exception to work with (correcting myself here as I stated above they had none), and that is a $2.7m exception. The rest of the roster can only be filled with the veteran minimum.
 
gooDevil said:
How about this for a rule:

You have to sign with the team that offers you the most money (per year over the life of the contract with 4 years max or some such).

That would sort out all this nonsense about stacking teams by players cutting salary, and would get the lower teams in the game quickly.
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I think that's would be too much control over players' decisions. The NBA might as well handpick the team for every player to ensure total equality. Besides, what's wrong with players sacrificing money to win? Money-grabbers in Sports used to be hated for their, well, money grabbing.

And by the way, no need to worry here. The Heat are not signing any big name (beside the big 3 if they sign) this Summer. Lowry, Pau, Deng, are all going to sign somewhere else. The Heat are actually looking more in the lines of Nelson, Carter, ...etc.

EDIT: And as we're speaking here, Lowry agreed to sign a 4-year $48m contract with Toronto.
 
Eboue said:
No issue with the Meeks deal.
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Not at all sure about Meeks myself, but I'm not sure what 7mil is really supposed to buy you anymore either.

If he can build on last season, or even keep up that pace, then it's a very good deal, even though he's a below average defender.

But his shot hasn't really been there for him except that one season, so it's also a bit of a gamble. However, if it doesn't work out I'm sure someone else would take a punt on him in a trade.
 
Danny1982 said:
They would want to, but the rules don't allow it. If the big 3 (or 2 of them) take pay-cuts, and the Heat try to pursue FAs with the cap space that's left, they will only have one exception to work with (correcting myself here as I stated above they had none), and that is a $2.7m exception. The rest of the roster can only be filled with the veteran minimum.
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So it's actually very difficult to get over the salary cap? I thought there were ways for teams like LA or NY with lots of money to go over the cap, and it just costs a huge tax bill.
 
gooDevil said:
So it's actually very difficult to get over the salary cap? I thought there were ways for teams like LA or NY with lots of money to go over the cap, and it just costs a huge tax bill.
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You can't sign anybody for more than the mid-level exception ($5.3m) if you're over the cap. That's why if they want to add a player for $8-10m then they need to stay under the cap (including that 8-10m).

If they fill out all the cap space (with existing contracts or re-signing current players) without signing a new free agent, then they're allowed to use a couple of exceptions to add players (but the $5.3m mid-level exception is as high as they can offer to a single player). That's why it's pointless for the big 3 to take pay cuts that will make room for only $5-6m, because the Heat do get a $5.3m exception even if they used all the cap space re-signing their current players. Pay-cuts will only be meaningful if they're big enough to make room for $6m+, which enables the Heat to target players costing more than $5.3m.

So teams are only allowed to go over the cap with time through the exceptions they get each year and the pay-rise the players get with each passing year on their contract. When the big 3 were first assembled the Heat were actually under the cap. 3 years later the big 3 were earning way more than what they started with, and the Heat also added a couple of players with mid-level exceptions during those 3 years, and that didn't only bring them well over the cap, but over the luxury cap, which forced them to amnesty Mike Miller to save some serious money in the fourth year.

As for those exceptions, there are quite a few, like the mid-level exception ($2.6m-$5.3m), the biannual exception (~$2m), the bird right exception (which allows you to go freely over the cap to re-sign any player that have played for you for the last 3 years)...etc.

So basically teams are allowed to go over the cap (with time), but there are certain rules, and they can't just spend anything they want on anybody they want.
 
Danny1982 said:
You can't sign anybody for more than the mid-level exception ($5.3m) if you're over the cap. That's why if they want to add a player for $8-10m then they need to stay under the cap (including that 8-10m).

If they fill out all the cap space (with existing contracts or re-signing current players) without signing a new free agent, then they're allowed to use a couple of exceptions to add players (but the $5.3m mid-level exception is as high as they can offer to a single player). That's why it's pointless for the big 3 to take pay cuts that will make room for only $5-6m, because the Heat do get a $5.3m exception even if they used all the cap space re-signing their current players. Pay-cuts will only be meaningful if they're big enough to make room for $6m+, which enables the Heat to target players costing more than $5.3m.

So teams are only allowed to go over the cap with time through the exceptions they get each year and the pay-rise the players get with each passing year on their contract. When the big 3 were first assembled the Heat were actually under the cap. 3 years later the big 3 were earning way more than what they started with, and the Heat also added a couple of players with mid-level exceptions during those 3 years, and that didn't only bring them well over the cap, but over the luxury cap, which forced them to amnesty Mike Miller to save some serious money in the fourth year.

As for those exceptions, there are quite a few, like the mid-level exception ($2.6m-$5.3m), the biannual exception (~$2m), the bird right exception (which allows you to go freely over the cap to re-sign any player that have played for you for the last 3 years)...etc.

So basically teams are allowed to go over the cap (with time), but there are certain rules, and they can't just spend anything they want on anybody they want.
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Very thorough, thanks.

So a team like the Lakers were well over this luxury cap when it first came into play, and when some of those contracts run out the Lakers won't be allowed to bring in someone else at the same value if that puts them over the first cap.

So they could, say, sign someone like Carmelo and bring themselves up to the cap, and then use their Bird Rights to re-sign Gasol even though that would put them into the luxury cap.

I never really thought about how that would encourage a team to hold onto players. If you're Washington you could wait till Wall's contract was up, sign other expensive players to bring you to just under the cap, and then use your Bird Rights to resign him, right? You could pull the same trick against when Beal's contract is up.

Of course this assumes Washington can afford to pay the taxes on this and the players want to resign. But since your own team can re-sign you for more money that's a very strong incentive as well.

The league is becoming extremely competitive in a lot of ways because of these caps. Yes someone still has to lose a lot of games because the league is a zero-sum game, but the quality of players on the lower teams is certainly higher than what it used to be, imo.

I predict that coaches salaries will go way up in the future, because they will be one of the few factors you can throw money at to fix, and someone like Pop is worth so much to the Spurs it's hard to put a dollar sign on it.

If you could get the next Pop at a young age, he would probably be worth more to a franchise than the highest paid basketball player.
 
gooDevil said:
Very thorough, thanks.

So a team like the Lakers were well over this luxury cap when it first came into play, and when some of those contracts run out the Lakers won't be allowed to bring in someone else at the same value if that puts them over the first cap.

So they could, say, sign someone like Carmelo and bring themselves up to the cap, and then use their Bird Rights to re-sign Gasol even though that would put them into the luxury cap.

I never really thought about how that would encourage a team to hold onto players. If you're Washington you could wait till Wall's contract was up, sign other expensive players to bring you to just under the cap, and then use your Bird Rights to resign him, right? You could pull the same trick against when Beal's contract is up.

Of course this assumed Washington can afford to pay the taxes on this and the players want to resign. But since your own team can re-sign you for more money that's a very strong incentive as well.

The league is becoming extremely competitive in a lot of ways because of these caps. Yes someone still has to lose a lot of games because the league is a zero-sum game, but the quality of players on the lower teams is certainly higher than what it used to be, imo.

I predict that coaches salaries will go way up in the future, because they will be one of the few factors you can throw money at to fix, and someone like Pop is worth so much to the Spurs it's hard to put a dollar sign on it.

If you could get the next Pop at a young age, he would probably be worth more to a franchise than the highest paid basketball player.
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No, guys like that have cap holds. The Lakers would need to renounce Gasol's rights in order to offer Carmelo the max.
 
gooDevil said:
Bastards! Damn lawyers think of everything.

So are there no functional cheats around it?
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Nope. And they made it even more difficult to "cheat" with the new CBA in 2011.

Quick update on free agency for Miami.. For the first time since the big 3 were assembled, it looks more likely now that James is going to leave, and probably the biggest sign for that is that Bosh is seriously considering leaving Miami too now, and may be even started discussing that with a couple of teams already (most notably Phoenix with the idea of teaming up with Lebron there).

The things that led to this unexpected turn of events (compared to how things looked a year ago) was the Heat amnestying Miller (bad move in term of building confidence for the team that the owner is committed to success whatever it takes), Wade playing only 55 games in the regular season raising serious questions about his future, Miami's disappearance act in the finals, and the fact that Pat Riley failed so far to attract any good free agents, as most of them has already signed with other teams.

Riley's job is looking even more difficult (in his negotiations with FAs) now that there are serious doubts about the big 3 returning to Miami, intact, which complicates things further for Miami.
 
If Miami let Bosh walk and resigned Wade to a small enough deal (around 10mil) then they could offer Melo the max.

I guess James has to decide which teammates he'd prefer next season, weird to see the game working that way.
 
gooDevil said:
If Miami let Bosh walk and resigned Wade to a small enough deal (around 10mil) then they could offer Melo the max.

I guess James has to decide which teammates he'd prefer next season, weird to see the game working that way.
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It looks like James' main problem is with Wade ('s health), not Bosh. Also it's looking pretty likely now that Carmelo is staying with the Knicks. Could make it official (the agreement) on Monday.

And Wade is not ready to go as low as $10m. Reportedly $13m is as low as he would start (a 4 year deal) with.

Only thing that could keep James in Miami now would be the lack of other viable (and better) alternatives, as not many teams can offer him the max.
 
LeBron in Phoenix? I just don't see it. Still think he'll sign in Miami.
 
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