Moises Caicedo | Chelsea agree £115M fee | signed for Chelsea

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

Not wanting to interrupt your exchange but I guess you are talking about different things. One is talking about his capabilities in passing and the other about him as a controller or dictator of a match. Something we've seen Scholes do, Pirlo do, maybe Carrick too in a few games. If you control the rhythm of a football match, it isn't just that your passes are good. That is certainly necessary as well but it isn't the only thing. There is more to it, vision, tactical understanding, seeing how the spaces evolve. Difficult to measure stuff. Caicedo isn't known to be such a player (yet?). Could he be it? Maybe yes, maybe no. But currently he isn't such a player - maybe because of the way Brighton plays, maybe because other things.

I think, everybody agrees on him being a great player and could be of big use to us. Not like we would have some sort of controller right now, Eriksen might pop up with a pass here and there but he is too un-influential against the ball. Although, to be fair to Eriksen, our transitional style didn't really asked Pirlo-esque stuff from any of our players.

Yeah Eriksen isn't a controller either. He has a good feel for passing and can strike a nice pass with both feet, but he's naturally more of a creator and thus is going to be more probing than a traditional Kroos type player might be.

Honestly think the entire "controller" thing gets a bit overblown. You don't have to have a Pirlo in your midfield, but you do need players that can consistently keep possession of the ball under pressure and play progressive passes, while offering high enough work rate off the ball. Caicedo can do all of these things quite well, even if he isn't going to sit back and play a quarterback role of just spraying diagonals all game.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

I see someone that completes 93% of their long passing, to me, that means they excel at it, the amount of passes attempted could be system related too. He loves picking out the full backs to progress the ball forward, a potential instruction that cuts down the need for him to attempt long balls. I'm sure Fred's stats would improve in a team as well balanced as either, put De Jong or Kroos in utd's midfield and I'm sure their percentiles would drop marginally. I'm not saying he's a deep lying playmaker, I'm saying it's in his game to be one as he's statistically a great passer, he's also shown he handles possession under pressure well.

You're not even reading it correctly. He's 93rd percentile for long passing completion, he actually completes ~79% of them whilst being in the bottom 3rd of all midfielders in long pass attempts per game at ~4.5. Obviously that suggests he's only doing it when there are wide open options - his long passing isn't a weapon that helps unlock opposition defenses.

 

[luke511]

You're not even reading it correctly. He's 93rd percentile for long passing completion, he actually completes ~79% of them whilst being in the bottom 3rd of all midfielders in long pass attempts per game at ~4.5. Obviously that suggests he's only doing it when there are wide open options - his long passing isn't a weapon that helps unlock opposition defenses.

I am reading it correctly, he completes 79.2% of his long passes, putting him in the 93rd percentile of long pass completion %. You’re the one that hasn’t read my post properly, the amount of long passes attempted could be instruction related.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

I am reading it correctly, he completes 79.2% of his long passes, putting him in the 93rd percentile of long pass completion %. You’re the one that hasn’t read my post properly.

I see someone that completes 93% of their long passing, to me, that means they excel at it, the amount of passes attempted could be system related too. He loves picking out the full backs to progress the ball forward, a potential instruction that cuts down the need for him to attempt long balls. I'm sure Fred's stats would improve in a team as well balanced as either, put De Jong or Kroos in utd's midfield and I'm sure their percentiles would drop marginally. I'm not saying he's a deep lying playmaker, I'm saying it's in his game to be one as he's statistically a great passer, he's also shown he handles possession under pressure well.

Hrm?

 

[Bring on utd]

Who told you that?

We are in for Mount. We aren’t signing Caicedo or Rice on top of him.

We will overpay for Mount.
Chelsea will buy Caicedo.
Arsenal will buy Rice.

We will get the worst deal out of the 3.

 

[zaafi]

I am reading it correctly, he completes 79.2% of his long passes, putting him in the 93rd percentile of long pass completion %. You’re the one that hasn’t read my post properly, the amount of long passes attempted could be instruction related.

Those stats would be impressive if he was also 93rd percentile in long ball attempts, not 33rd. As @TheMagicFoolBus already pointed out, this indicates that he only does it when it's "safe" and not line breaking or defense splitting long passes.
If he's going to be a dictator, he needs to have this in his locker.

 

[aeh1991]

We are in for Mount. We aren’t signing Caicedo or Rice on top of him.

We will overpay for Mount.
Chelsea will buy Caicedo.
Arsenal will buy Rice.

We will get the worst deal out of the 3.

It's really frustrating.. especially since a midtable club without CL would get the better player over us AND we basically would finance that. Imagine we pay 70m and they spend the same amount on Caicedo..

 

[luke511]

Hrm?

Zing, an obvious typo.

 

[Member 58925]

Yeah Eriksen isn't a controller either. He has a good feel for passing and can strike a nice pass with both feet, but he's naturally more of a creator and thus is going to be more probing than a traditional Kroos type player might be.

Honestly think the entire "controller" thing gets a bit overblown. You don't have to have a Pirlo in your midfield, but you do need players that can consistently keep possession of the ball under pressure and play progressive passes, while offering high enough work rate off the ball. Caicedo can do all of these things quite well, even if he isn't going to sit back and play a quarterback role of just spraying diagonals all game.

Also controlling in this system doesn't necessarily have the requirements as systems that use a more traditional deep lying playmaker. ETH's system requires the energy to counter press and make quick passes between the lines when the ball is one, as well as carry the ball in space. Caicedo absolutely has that skillset.

 

[Member 58925]

It's really frustrating.. especially since a midtable club without CL would get the better player over us AND we basically would finance that. Imagine we pay 70m and they spend the same amount on Caicedo..

On the other hand we're all too familiar with the pitfalls of handing out monster salaries and transfer fees to compensate for the fact that we had a s*** project.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Zing, an obvious typo.

Is it? Because 79.2% on 4.5 attempts per game doesn't scream "elite long passer". If you are going solely off of completion rate that is more or less meaningless - which is what you were doing in the post I quoted anyway.

Here's what an elite long passer looks like:

 

[luke511]

Is it? Because 79.2% on 4.5 attempts per game doesn't scream "elite long passer". If you are going solely off of completion rate that is more or less meaningless - which is what you were doing in the post I quoted anyway.

Here's what an elite long passer looks like:

MacAllister attempts the same amount of long passes per 90, which suggests it’s a tactical instruction. Being in the 93rd percentile for your long pass completion % isn’t meaningless.

 

[WeePat]

Is he a journalist? Looks like a kid with his mum's phone.

He claims to have sources, and he’s not the only random Chelsea twitter account that claims this. He’s just a kid with a YouTube channel though. No idea why his stuff he gets posted here as some kind of important news we have to pay attention to.

 

[Bebestation]

Is it? Because 79.2% on 4.5 attempts per game doesn't scream "elite long passer". If you are going solely off of completion rate that is more or less meaningless - which is what you were doing in the post I quoted anyway.

Here's what an elite long passer looks like:

Who is that?

 

[edcunited1878]

Also controlling in this system doesn't necessarily have the requirements as systems that use a more traditional deep lying playmaker. ETH's system requires the energy to counter press and make quick passes between the lines when the ball is one, as well as carry the ball in space. Caicedo absolutely has that skillset.

As does Mount. Caicedo has to play more and more, he won't get that with Casemiro.

 

[edcunited1878]

We are in for Mount. We aren’t signing Caicedo or Rice on top of him.

We will overpay for Mount.
Chelsea will buy Caicedo.
Arsenal will buy Rice.

We will get the worst deal out of the 3.

Mount is a different player and need from Caicedo and Rice. Casemiro is older yes, obviously, but he's far and away the better player than these two. In another season or 2, United will look for better players than Caicedo and Rice, the players will be there.

 

[luke511]

As does Mount. Caicedo has to play more and more, he won't get that with Casemiro.

He can play alongside Casemiro, like Fred has been doing. Combine that with covering for Casemiro when he’s suspended, injured or tired, that’s plenty of minutes.

 

[zaafi]

MacAllister attempts the same amount of long passes per 90, which suggests it’s a tactical instruction. Being in the 93rd percentile for your long pass completion % isn’t meaningless.

It doesn't suggest it's a tactical instruction. It suggests neither of them are particularly great long ball passers, which is the truth. Any professional footballer can ping a long ball if they have space to play the ball into. The challenge arises when they don't, and Caicedo does not have the ability or the vision to consistently make these passes.

You keep missing the point. Being a top percentile in something is meaningless when the attempts are low. For instance, if Sancho plays 90 minutes for a whole season and during those minutes he completed 3 out of 3 successful dribbles, that would put him in the 99th percentile, but that doesn't make him a great dribbler.
It gets impressive when both the completion rate and the attempt rate is equally in the top percentile.

 

[edcunited1878]

He can play alongside Casemiro, like Fred has been doing. Combine that with covering for Casemiro when he’s suspended, injured or tired, that’s plenty of minutes.

We haven't seen anything from Caicedo that shows he can play as an 8 a la Eriksen or Rabiot or Mount. Yes, there are matches he can fit in besides Casemiro, but towards the end of last season, when in possession, United had Casemiro on his own with Bruno and Eriksen above him as part of a 1-2 central mid trio, rather than a 2-1 (with Bruno being that 1 floating around).

I don't think Caicedo has enough g/a threat to play always alongside Casemiro.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

MacAllister attempts the same amount of long passes per 90, which suggests it’s a tactical instruction. Being in the 93rd percentile for your long pass completion % isn’t meaningless.

Why do you assume it's a one way street tactically and that it's not a deliberate instruction by De Zerbi because he understands the limitations of his midfielders? I've never seen anyone cite a teammate's limited passing stats as a defense for shortcomings as if it were some sort of contagious affliction.

Genuine question - do you think that if Caicedo were attempting ~9 long balls per game he'd maintain the same completion percentage? If a player attempted 10 long passes for an entire season and completed 9 of them would you call him elite at long passing because his completion rate was 90%? You can't possibly argue that long pass completion percentage is independent of volume.

Who is that?

Enzo Fernandez's last year from the PL and CL. CL stats include his time at Benfica, as a caveat.

 

[luke511]

We haven't seen anything from Caicedo that shows he can play as an 8 a la Eriksen or Rabiot or Mount. Yes, there are matches he can fit in besides Casemiro, but towards the end of last season, when in possession, United had Casemiro on his own with Bruno and Eriksen above him as part of a 1-2 central mid trio, rather than a 2-1 (with Bruno being that 1 floating around).

I don't think Caicedo has enough g/a threat to play always alongside Casemiro.

United had problems against competitive sides away from home playing Casemiro on his own with Bruno and Eriksen ahead, this is where utd lost the most points (along with having no cover for Casemiro). That's where the value of Fred's defensive work in midfield was realised, and Caicedo has the ability to do everything Fred can at a more consistent level. If we want to close the gap on city, solving the away from home dilemma is vital and Caicedo is a potential solution especially with Fred leaving. He won't always play there, he could even play as a RB and advance into midfield, just having him in midfield as defensive solidity in the hard games could be a huge benefit..

 

[luke511]

It doesn't suggest it's a tactical instruction. It suggests neither of them are particularly great long ball passers, which is the truth. Any professional footballer can ping a long ball if they have space to play the ball into. The challenge arises when they don't, and Caicedo does not have the ability or the vision to consistently make these passes.

You keep missing the point. Being a top percentile in something is meaningless when the attempts are low. For instance, if Sancho plays 90 minutes for a whole season and during those minutes he completed 3 out of 3 successful dribbles, that would put him in the 99th percentile, but that doesn't make him a great dribbler.
It gets impressive when both the completion rate and the attempt rate is equally in the top percentile.

I think it does, I've seen them both capable of pinging delightful long passes, it's a subjective call. okay so if Portsmouth's Matt Taylor is in the lowest 10% for attempted long shots, but highest 90% for long shots scored, that's meaningless is it? It's not as black and white as that, tactics and player preference certainly play a part, if a player long pass success rate is impressively high, that indicates he can play a long pass very accurately, there shouldn't be a correlation where the lower the amount of long passes attempted, the less meaningful the success rate is.

 

[luke511]

Why do you assume it's a one way street tactically and that it's not a deliberate instruction by De Zerbi because he understands the limitations of his midfielders? I've never seen anyone cite a teammate's limited passing stats as a defense for shortcomings as if it were some sort of contagious affliction.

Genuine question - do you think that if Caicedo were attempting ~9 long balls per game he'd maintain the same completion percentage? If a player attempted 10 long passes for an entire season and completed 9 of them would you call him elite at long passing because his completion rate was 90%? You can't possibly argue that long pass completion percentage is independent of volume.



Enzo Fernandez's last year from the PL and CL. CL stats include his time at Benfica, as a caveat.

I can't be assed having the same dispute with two different people on a Friday night, I'll leave it as this. Caicedo's passing completion % is in the top bracket percentile for short, medium, and long. He attempts a lot of short passes, a fair amount of medium, a smaller amount of long whilst maintaining a great pass completion %. That indicates that he is a great passer that accurately finds his man in every field, he just prefers to go short than long because of the system he plays in and the options available in that system.

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

Also controlling in this system doesn't necessarily have the requirements as systems that use a more traditional deep lying playmaker. ETH's system requires the energy to counter press and make quick passes between the lines when the ball is one, as well as carry the ball in space. Caicedo absolutely has that skillset.

Yep, he's very progressive and has great feet as well. I think too many are thinking of him as some Ndidi type destroyer that would only be able to play if Casemiro was out, or if we were parking the bus. Caicedo could do everything Fred does besides Case except miles better without the brain farts.

 

[bucky]

Those stats are very underwhelming for a supposedly game controller and passing maestro.
I suggest you take a look at Frenkie de Jong or Kroos' passing stats.
Caicedo, while he has a lot of other abilities and insane potential, is so far from these players when it comes to dictating the play, and not really his style as others have pointed out as well.

Comparing a 21 year old Caicedo to one of the best players of his generation and another, who is 5 years older than him, and in his prime is very silly and kind of pointless.

It doesn't suggest it's a tactical instruction. It suggests neither of them are particularly great long ball passers, which is the truth. Any professional footballer can ping a long ball if they have space to play the ball into. The challenge arises when they don't, and Caicedo does not have the ability or the vision to consistently make these passes.

You keep missing the point. Being a top percentile in something is meaningless when the attempts are low. For instance, if Sancho plays 90 minutes for a whole season and during those minutes he completed 3 out of 3 successful dribbles, that would put him in the 99th percentile, but that doesn't make him a great dribbler.
It gets impressive when both the completion rate and the attempt rate is equally in the top percentile.

Success rate is more important than attempts. De Jong averages 6.25 attempts, while Caicedo attempts 4.56 long passes. Hardly a significant difference or enough to make conclusions about how good of passer he can be.

Those stats would be impressive if he was also 93rd percentile in long ball attempts, not 33rd. As @TheMagicFoolBus already pointed out, this indicates that he only does it when it's "safe" and not line breaking or defense splitting long passes.
If he's going to be a dictator, he needs to have this in his locker.

Looks like he has it in his locker and has room to improve:

 

[zaafi]

Comparing a 21 year old Caicedo to one of the best players of his generation and another, who is 5 years older than him, and in his prime is very silly and kind of pointless.

Why is that? There are not many players in football able to dictate the tempo of the game, and it's not a coincident these players are some of the best midfielders in the world. Caicedo isn't one that dictates the game. He might do that in the future, but he isn't right now, which is what we're discussing. Who else should I compare him to? Sean Longstaff?

You're also forgetting these players were in the top percentile stats at Caicedo's age and even younger, which is why Kroos was a starter in Bayern's midfield at the age of 20, and Barca snapped up Frenkie de Jong at 22. These players showed their dictating abilities at a young age. It's not very likely you suddenly get these abilities, even if it has been done before.

Success rate is more important than attempts. De Jong averages 6.25 attempts, while Caicedo attempts 4.56 long passes. Hardly a significant difference or enough to make conclusions about how good of passer he can be.

Yes and no. Success rate doesn't matter a lot if the volume is low.
We weren't just talking about long passing, though, as there are more aspects than that to dictating. Look at his ball carrying, his quick turns and how efficiently he evades press. Fantastic dribbling ability on top of that. Again, Caicedo is nowhere near.
I'm not even sure what the point you're trying to make here. Are you implying Caicedo is as good passer as De Jong?

Looks like he has it in his locker and has room to improve:

Look at the players in that list who are even above him. Obviously room to improve, but that graph shows nothing.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

I can't be assed having the same dispute with two different people on a Friday night, I'll leave it as this. Caicedo's passing completion % is in the top bracket percentile for short, medium, and long. He attempts a lot of short passes, a fair amount of medium, a smaller amount of long whilst maintaining a great pass completion %. That indicates that he is a great passer that accurately finds his man in every field, he just prefers to go short than long because of the system he plays in and the options available in that system.

If you can't be arsed to have a discussion because you've been backed into a corner, then fair dos and enjoy your night. This is a textbook case of fixating on a single stat and then building a narrative around it against all other evidence - to the point where you are trying to cite limited long passing numbers of a totally different player as some sort of reflection on Caicedo's abilities.

Caicedo is a wonderful player. He's also a fair fecking ways from being an elite passer. Maybe he'll get there someday but putting him in the top bracket already is fecking ludicrous.

 

[edcunited1878]

United had problems against competitive sides away from home playing Casemiro on his own with Bruno and Eriksen ahead, this is where utd lost the most points (along with having no cover for Casemiro). That's where the value of Fred's defensive work in midfield was realised, and Caicedo has the ability to do everything Fred can at a more consistent level. If we want to close the gap on city, solving the away from home dilemma is vital and Caicedo is a potential solution especially with Fred leaving. He won't always play there, he could even play as a RB and advance into midfield, just having him in midfield as defensive solidity in the hard games could be a huge benefit..

I don't think we've seen anything of Caicedo, at the moment, that indicates he can be as flexible as Fred when it comes to positions, let alone being a more consistent level near the box and going into the box.

The away issue is much more mental and seeing out the first 20 minutes and keeping shape and concentration while sticking to the tactical plan.

The experimenting of Caicedo playing multiple positions in central midfield, let alone RB, is something Mount is already accustomed to. I think Caicedo will be a good player in the years to come, but given his potential fee and optimal position (which is already covered by Casemiro for at least the next 2 season), he would be a depth signing.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Comparing a 21 year old Caicedo to one of the best players of his generation and another, who is 5 years older than him, and in his prime is very silly and kind of pointless.



Success rate is more important than attempts. De Jong averages 6.25 attempts, while Caicedo attempts 4.56 long passes. Hardly a significant difference or enough to make conclusions about how good of passer he can be.



Looks like he has it in his locker and has room to improve:

Oh good, guess Chelsea should expect a lot more for Ruben Loftus-Cheek then.

Also the bolded is absurd. They are equally important and crucially neither is definitive absent broader context.

 

[luke511]

If you can't be arsed to have a discussion because you've been backed into a corner, then fair dos and enjoy your night. This is a textbook case of fixating on a single stat and then building a narrative around it against all other evidence - to the point where you are trying to cite limited long passing numbers of a totally different player as some sort of reflection on Caicedo's abilities.

Caicedo is a wonderful player. He's also a fair fecking ways from being an elite passer. Maybe he'll get there someday but putting him in the top bracket already is fecking ludicrous.

Hardly been backed into a corner It’s more to do with having to type the same thing out twice, ceebs. You make it sound like controlling tempo is a mythical superpower only held by the 99th percentiles. The two things I’ve said is passing is a strength of his and controlling the tempo “is in his game”. The way he’s played for Brighton this season indicates it is in his game, and his highly accurate passing ability short, medium and long backs that up. At no point have I said he’s an elite passer in the De Jong and Kroos top bracket club.

 

[luke511]

Pretend he’s got long brown hair with olive skin and you might see it boys

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Hardly been backed into a corner It’s more to do with having to type the same thing out twice, ceebs. You make it sound like controlling tempo is a mythical superpower only held by the 99th percentiles. The two things I’ve said is passing is a strength of his and controlling the tempo “is in his game”. The way he’s played for Brighton this season indicates it is in his game, and his highly accurate passing ability short, medium and long backs that up. At no point have I said he’s an elite passer in the De Jong and Kroos top bracket club.

Never said that - just would argue that a player who can control and dictate play from deep probably shouldn't be below average in too many passing attributes?

He was 75th percentile in total passing distance and 67th in progressive passing distance. That difference alone tells you that he's a safe passer rather than an aggressive one - and citing long passing completion over a small sample size is just silly. Or again, would you call a player who completed 9/10 long passes for the year elite because he was 99th percentile in long pass accuracy? Interesting how you have definitely not been backed into a corner but also have not actually answered the question.

Pretend he’s got long brown hair with olive skin and you might see it boys

Ah yes, the final nail in the coffin of any argument - a 2 minute youtube compilation of him playing against a team with a limited midfield.

 

[VP89]

Pretend he’s got long brown hair with olive skin and you might see it boys

You're suggesting it's a race issue?

 

[luke511]

Never said that - just would argue that a player who can control and dictate play from deep probably shouldn't be below average in too many passing attributes?

He was 75th percentile in total passing distance and 67th in progressive passing distance. That difference alone tells you that he's a safe passer rather than an aggressive one - and citing long passing completion over a small sample size is just silly. Or again, would you call a player who completed 9/10 long passes for the year elite because he was 99th percentile in long pass accuracy? Interesting how you have definitely not been backed into a corner but also have not actually answered the question.



Ah yes, the final nail in the coffin of any argument - a 2 minute youtube compilation of him playing against a team with a limited midfield.

Show me these below average stats in many passing attributes please?

If a deep midfielder attempted 10 long passes in one season and completed 9 of them, I’d say fair play you can find a man but why the feck are only doing it 1 every nearly four games? The two scenarios aren’t comparisons at all. 4.5 completed long passes a game is as good as Macallister who is being touted as a talented passer and I’ve actually seen being compared to Scholes this season (not my opinion), it’s not a criminal value especially with the context that Caicedo does it more accurately and excels in the short and medium fields.

 

[bucky]

Why is that? There are not many players in football able to dictate the tempo of the game, and it's not a coincident these players are some of the best midfielders in the world. Caicedo isn't one that dictates the game. He might do that in the future, but he isn't right now, which is what we're discussing. Who else should I compare him to? Sean Longstaff?

You're also forgetting these players were in the top percentile stats at Caicedo's age and even younger, which is why Kroos was a starter in Bayern's midfield at the age of 20, and Barca snapped up Frenkie de Jong at 22. These players showed their dictating abilities at a young age. It's not very likely you suddenly get these abilities, even if it has been done before.

Yes and no. Success rate doesn't matter a lot if the volume is low.
We weren't just talking about long passing, though, as there are more aspects than that to dictating. Look at his ball carrying, his quick turns and how efficiently he evades press. Fantastic dribbling ability on top of that. Again, Caicedo is nowhere near.
I'm not even sure what the point you're trying to make here. Are you implying Caicedo is as good passer as De Jong?

Look at the players in that list who are even above him. Obviously room to improve, but that graph shows nothing.

You wrote that him being in the 33rd percentile in terms of long passes attempted indicates that he is not capable of line-breaking or defense splitting long passes. That graph indicates that he is closer to Bruno Guimarães, who is pretty good at that sort of thing, than not being able to do it.

I don't keep forgetting that players like Kroos or de Jong looked fantastic passers, but again comparing Caicedo to Kroos and de Jong is silly, because they are among the absolute best midfielders of their generation, when Caicedo is just getting started with his senior career. Kroos was playing as an attacking midfielder for Munich, when he was 21 and he hadn't even fully established himself yet. For example, Kroos was attempting 48.2 passes per 90 mins at the time compared to Caicedo's 64.5 passes per game.

If Caicedo wasn't press-resistant, then he wouldn't have a place in that Brighton team. It's that simple. My point is that Brighton don't have a de Jong or Kroos in their team. Nonetheless they are one of the best teams in possession in Europe. Players like Caicedo enable them to be that team. To be able to control games via possession you need good passers in your team, Caicedo helped them significantly to control games with his passing.

Saying that that graph shows nothing is quite odd. And when I'm looking at the players above him, all of them are older.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Show me these below average stats in many passing attributes please?

If a deep midfielder attempted 10 long passes in one season and completed 9 of them, I’d say fair play you can find a man but why the feck are only doing it 1 every nearly four games? The two scenarios aren’t comparisons at all. 4.5 completed long passes a game is as good as Macallister who is being touted as a talented passer and I’ve actually seen being compared to Scholes this season (not my opinion), it’s not a criminal value especially with the context of the that Caicedo does it more accurately and excels in the short and medium fields.

Well, there's the 33rd percentile in long passes we've discussed. His creative numbers are underwhelming - and given that Brighton were such a possession machine last year, I'm pretty confident that they've already been inflated to an extent.

I'm glad you agree that volume matters - and my point with Caicedo remains that if he were especially good at it, why would a manager as smart as De Zerbi ignore that? Why wouldn't he be attempting more long passes per game if it was such a weapon?

I feel exactly the same way about MacAllister - and agreed that the Scholes comparisons are fecking ludicrous.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

You wrote that him being in the 33rd percentile in terms of long passes attempted indicates that he is not capable of line-breaking or defense splitting long passes. That graph indicates that he is closer to Bruno Guimarães, who is pretty good at that sort of thing, than not being able to do it.

I don't keep forgetting that players like Kroos or de Jong looked fantastic passers, but again comparing Caicedo to Kroos and de Jong is silly, because they are among the absolute best midfielders of their generation, when Caicedo is just getting started with his senior career. Kroos was playing as an attacking midfielder for Munich, when he was 21 and he hadn't even fully established himself yet. For example, Kroos was attempting 48.2 passes per 90 mins at the time compared to Caicedo's 64.5 passes per game.

If Caicedo wasn't press-resistant, then he wouldn't have a place in that Brighton team. It's that simple. My point is that Brighton don't have a de Jong or Kroos in their team. Nonetheless they are one of the best teams in possession in Europe. Players like Caicedo enable them to be that team. To be able to control games via possession you need good passers in your team, Caicedo helped them significantly to control games with his passing.

Saying that that graph shows nothing is quite odd. And when I'm looking at the players above him, all of them are older.

That graph very obviously does a poor job of differentiating players by their individual quality and therefore is more or less meaningless. Unless Hojberg, Tielemans, and Bentancur are among the best players in the league now?

 

[luke511]

Well, there's the 33rd percentile in long passes we've discussed. His creative numbers are underwhelming - and given that Brighton were such a possession machine last year, I'm pretty confident that they've already been inflated to an extent.

I'm glad you agree that volume matters - and my point with Caicedo remains that if he were especially good at it, why would a manager as smart as De Zerbi ignore that? Why wouldn't he be attempting more long passes per game if it was such a weapon?

I feel exactly the same way about MacAllister - and agreed that the Scholes comparisons are fecking ludicrous.

It might be because the managers preference is for them to try and keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, keeping it precise and increasing their chance of holding onto possession. It’s a loose presumption going off a statistic but it makes sense. I’d be interested to see Brighton’s long ball attempts as a total.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

It might be because the managers preference is for them to try and keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, keeping it precise and increasing their chance of holding onto possession. It’s a loose presumption going off a statistic but it makes sense. I’d be interested to see Brighton’s long ball attempts as a total.

Welp, you may be onto something - Brighton were 19th in long pass attempts last year.

That said, I still would push back on the notion that Caicedo's passing range has been held back by the team's tactics as I think that's a bridge too far, but I apologise for being flippant before.

Having said that you've convinced me and I fully support Chelsea going all out for Caicedo!

 

[bucky]

Oh good, guess Chelsea should expect a lot more for Ruben Loftus-Cheek then.

Also the bolded is absurd. They are equally important and crucially neither is definitive absent broader context.

Maybe he is a better player than people give him credit for?

It's not absurd. Long-passing is simply not that important in terms of keeping control of a game via possession. All of Dunk (11.9 att, 65.2%), Groß (9.78 att, 46.5%), Webster (8.05 att, 70.2 %), Colwill (7.79 att, 70.8%), March (6.89 att, 54.3%), Veltman (5.84 att, 59.2%) and Mac Allister (4.61 att, 68.2%) attempted more long passes per game than Caicedo (4.56 att, 79.2%), while some of them are significantly worse than Caicedo at completing them. Weirdly, it didn't have an impact on Brighton being an excellent team at keeping possession.

That graph very obviously does a poor job of differentiating players by their individual quality and therefore is more or less meaningless. Unless Hojberg, Tielemans, and Bentancur are among the best players in the league now?

It is designed to showcase two specific metrics that the poster I was responding to mentioned one of. It wasn't a commentary on the overall quality of all of those players. By the way, why are you cherry-picking worse players and not the best, who also happen to stand out in that graph? Tielemans problem isn't what he does on the ball, rather that he is lazy and unfit for 90 minutes, which is fairly crucial for a footballer. Højbjerg has been a good player for Spurs in the past and he is an underrated passer.