If you have time, can you explain the election (as you see it)?
Yeah sure.
So this is the fourth general election since Iraq has become a ‘democracy’. It’s a PR system using 18 of Iraq’s governates as the constituencies. And as such Iraqi politics has relied on a coalitions and alliances compromising of broad groups to form governments.
Considering Iraq is a majority Shia nation, the bigger blocs are Shi’a affiliated. This year the key players are the bloc led by the incumbent Prime Minister Abadi, a bloc made up of the Iranian-backed Shi’a Miltias led by Hadi Al-Ameri, and then there’s the bloc led by the firebrand nationalist cleric Muqtada Al Sadr. There are some smaller coalitions comprising of Sunnis and Christians but the best they can hope for is to negotiate a position of power should the other coalitions come up short. The Kurds meanwhile are doing their own thing in the north where they’re trying to consolidate their strongholds, completely disinterested in Baghdad.
The mood going into this election is complete disillusionment and apathy, and from what I hear the turnout is as low as 21%. Think it’s just gotten to the point Iraqis are sick of the corruption, perpetual war and economic collapse.
I think Abadi expected a relatively comfortable victory because of his tenure overseeing the defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq but corruption has pretty much damaged his chances. He’s also seen as the most friendly towards the US (he’s the US’ preference) which you could argue has also done him no favours, especially considering the sentiment towards Trump in Iraq (him saying we’re not a proper country and how he was going to take our oil as compensation), and with the ripping up of the Iran deal and moving the Israeli embassy to Jerusalem, it’s not a good time to be a US stooge. As of now Abadi seems to be in third place behind the Shia militia coalition (PMF) and Al-Sadr’s coalition.
So right now it seems to be between the PMF and Al-Sadr. The PMF is unsurprisingly Iran’s preference, and enjoy a substantial core of support from Iraq’s Shia population since their militias have been credited as the genuine bulwark against ISIS, but are met with apprehension from the Sunni and secular demographic who fear their sectarian inclination. Needless to say the US isn’t too hot on them either considering their close ties to Iran and the faction’s general hostility towards the US (one of their leaders even suggested turning on the US military personnel in Iraq after the Jerusalem embassy fiasco).
Then there’s the wildcard candidate Moqtada Al Sadr and his alliance who as of now are currently leading. Sadr is an interesting one, he’s a Shia cleric who is the son of a very influential Shia cleric in Iraq that Saddam had assassinated. He really came to prominence during the early occupation of Iraq where his faction served as the main insurgency in the South where they battled US forces in a guerilla campaign. However despite being a Shia cleric, he’s a staunch nationalist that appears to run on a non sectarian banner and claims to be independent of Iran, at times publicly condemning the excessive influence they hold in the country. I’d imagine he’s become popular because he’s run on an anti corruption platform (his party managed to temporarily shut down government last year to protest rampant corruption), and because he boasts appeal from Iraq’s minorities on account of his seemingly secular nationalism (his main partner in the alliance is Iraq’s communist party if that’s any indication). The trouble is the guy is an absolute unpredictable headcase and I’m pretty sure he’s somewhere on the autistic spectrum, so he’s about as qualified to be Iraq’s prime minister as any of us.
I can’t really you tell how it’ll end, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Abadi clutches on to power even if his coalition loses.
Edit: Just realised Al-Sadr himself cannot become prime minister. Will be interesting to see who he choses though, the Iranian or US stooge?