Middle East Politics
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
The inevitable crackdown could get ugly this time.
Regime will be watching closely. Through two revolutions (1905-11 Constitutional Revolution and 1979 Islamic Revolution) and two other mass protest movements (Tobacco protests of the early 1890s and Oil Nationalization era of early 1950s) the bazaaris played a major role in driving things and were generally allied to the ulama in opposition to foreign interests and the regime through which that influence was perceived to flow. Now the ulama are the regime, and the bazaari alliance is looking fragile.
What's the story here ?
Abdullah and his son are obviously deep in preparation for the liberation of Palestine.
The original Haaretz article is behind a paywall, but this gives the gist of it:
Axis of Least Resistance: Bashar al-Assad now Israel's ally, claims media analysis
Worth noting that Netanyahu is returning to Moscow next week amid reports that the long-touted Russia-Israel deal to limit the Iranian presence in Syria is close to completion.
Axis of Least Resistance: Bashar al-Assad now Israel's ally, claims media analysis
Israel is keen for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to remain in power and defeat the opposition now that Tel Aviv holds leverage with him through Russia, according to a report in Israeli daily Haaretz.
Six years after the start of the Syrian conflict - triggered by the regime's crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2011 - Israel "is acting as if it is now reformulating its policy and becoming reconciled to Assad's continued rule", wrote Zvi Bar'el on Tuesday.
This marks a departure from Israel's initial position in which it remained largely neutral in the conflict, with the exception of providing limited assistance to fringe rebel groups near the border, in the hope of establishing a Syrian buffer zone. Airstrikes inside Syria are meant to contain Iran's military footprint there.
According to Bar'el - citing Israeli foreign ministry sources - the Israeli establishment has long been split even on whether or not to denounce Assad.
These "diplomatic acrobatics", wrote Bar'el, convinced Syrian rebel leaders "that Israel wanted Assad to remain in power...[and] they were right".
Position papers drafted by the Israeli army and the foreign ministry over the past two years "didn't actually voice support for the Syrian president, but their assessments show that they viewed his continued rule as preferable or even vital for Israel's security".
The new shift in Israel's position is primarily linked to the close relationship between Tel Aviv and Moscow, Assad's most important international ally.
The Russians, wrote to Bar'el, have given Israeli a great say on what happens in Syria, with Moscow giving Israel "a free hand to attack Hizballah and Iranian targets in Syria".
In addition, Israel's goal to oust Iran from Syria can only be achieved in agreement with Assad via Russia: "the only power capable of limiting Iran's operations there and perhaps even getting it to leave."
This has "added the Israelis to the unofficial coalition of Arab states that support Assad's continued rule", added Bar'el, in reference to Egypt, which has provided backing for the Syrian regime.
In return, Israel has reportedly promised Moscow not to undermine Assad's rule.
Haaretz's analysis echoes reports last week that Russia and Israel had reached a deal to allow Syrian forces to take rebel territory in southern Syria, as long as Iranian troops do not participate in the offensive and stay 24 kilometres back from Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Israel seized a large swathe of the Golan Heights and adjacent areas from Syria in a war with Arab states in 1967. It annexed that territory in 1981, a move never recognised by the international community.
Since 19 June, Russia-backed regime forces have ramped up their bombardment of southern Syria's Daraa, as Damascus seeks to regain the opposition territories.
The region borders Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and is considered to be the cradle of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad seven years ago that sparked the civil war.
The regime has chipped away at rebel-held territory in Daraa since the escalation began almost two weeks ago.
Both Israel and Jordan have said they will not take any Syrian refugees, as the conflict despite the conflict already displacing tens of thousands.
The Syrian conflict began when the Baath regime, in power since 1963 and led by President Bashar al-Assad, responded with military force to peaceful protests demanding democratic reforms in 2011.
It triggered an armed rebellion fuelled by mass defections from the Syrian army.
According to independent monitors, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in the war, mostly by the regime and its powerful allies, while millions have been displaced both inside and outside of Syria.
The brutal tactics - pursued mainly by the regime - have included the use of chemical weapons, sieges, mass executions and torture against civilians have led to war crimes investigations.
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/n...t-resistance-bashar-al-assad-now-israels-ally
Six years after the start of the Syrian conflict - triggered by the regime's crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2011 - Israel "is acting as if it is now reformulating its policy and becoming reconciled to Assad's continued rule", wrote Zvi Bar'el on Tuesday.
This marks a departure from Israel's initial position in which it remained largely neutral in the conflict, with the exception of providing limited assistance to fringe rebel groups near the border, in the hope of establishing a Syrian buffer zone. Airstrikes inside Syria are meant to contain Iran's military footprint there.
According to Bar'el - citing Israeli foreign ministry sources - the Israeli establishment has long been split even on whether or not to denounce Assad.
These "diplomatic acrobatics", wrote Bar'el, convinced Syrian rebel leaders "that Israel wanted Assad to remain in power...[and] they were right".
Position papers drafted by the Israeli army and the foreign ministry over the past two years "didn't actually voice support for the Syrian president, but their assessments show that they viewed his continued rule as preferable or even vital for Israel's security".
The new shift in Israel's position is primarily linked to the close relationship between Tel Aviv and Moscow, Assad's most important international ally.
The Russians, wrote to Bar'el, have given Israeli a great say on what happens in Syria, with Moscow giving Israel "a free hand to attack Hizballah and Iranian targets in Syria".
In addition, Israel's goal to oust Iran from Syria can only be achieved in agreement with Assad via Russia: "the only power capable of limiting Iran's operations there and perhaps even getting it to leave."
This has "added the Israelis to the unofficial coalition of Arab states that support Assad's continued rule", added Bar'el, in reference to Egypt, which has provided backing for the Syrian regime.
In return, Israel has reportedly promised Moscow not to undermine Assad's rule.
Haaretz's analysis echoes reports last week that Russia and Israel had reached a deal to allow Syrian forces to take rebel territory in southern Syria, as long as Iranian troops do not participate in the offensive and stay 24 kilometres back from Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Israel seized a large swathe of the Golan Heights and adjacent areas from Syria in a war with Arab states in 1967. It annexed that territory in 1981, a move never recognised by the international community.
Since 19 June, Russia-backed regime forces have ramped up their bombardment of southern Syria's Daraa, as Damascus seeks to regain the opposition territories.
The region borders Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and is considered to be the cradle of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad seven years ago that sparked the civil war.
The regime has chipped away at rebel-held territory in Daraa since the escalation began almost two weeks ago.
Both Israel and Jordan have said they will not take any Syrian refugees, as the conflict despite the conflict already displacing tens of thousands.
The Syrian conflict began when the Baath regime, in power since 1963 and led by President Bashar al-Assad, responded with military force to peaceful protests demanding democratic reforms in 2011.
It triggered an armed rebellion fuelled by mass defections from the Syrian army.
According to independent monitors, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed in the war, mostly by the regime and its powerful allies, while millions have been displaced both inside and outside of Syria.
The brutal tactics - pursued mainly by the regime - have included the use of chemical weapons, sieges, mass executions and torture against civilians have led to war crimes investigations.
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/n...t-resistance-bashar-al-assad-now-israels-ally
Worth noting that Netanyahu is returning to Moscow next week amid reports that the long-touted Russia-Israel deal to limit the Iranian presence in Syria is close to completion.
Here are some of the details of that proposed Russia-Israel deal reported in the Washington Post last week:
● Iranian-backed forces will stay at least 80 kilometers from the Israeli border on the Golan Heights.
● Israel will have tacit Russian permission to attack threatening Iranian targets in Syria, so long as Russian troops aren’t harmed. Israel has exercised this freedom of action in recent weeks to strike secret Iranian bases and block Tehran’s attempt to open a Syrian “second front” against Israel that would complement Hezbollah in Lebanon.
● Assad’s army, backed by Russian air power, will consolidate control in southwest Syria and retake posts on the Jordanian border. Jordan favors Assad’s control of the border because it might allow truck traffic to resume, boosting the cash-strapped Jordanian economy. Opposition forces in the southwest apparently will be left to fend for themselves. As thousands of new Syrian refugees flee toward a closed Jordanian border, a new slaughter of trapped civilians is possible.
● Russian military police will patrol areas of southwest Syria and perhaps other regions, in an effort to stabilize those zones. But a European diplomat cautions that any expectation that Russian power will mean security is “based on wishful thinking rather than reality.” The United States, for now, will retain its garrison at al-Tanf, in southern Syria, to block any Iranian advance there.
● Russia and the Assad regime will expand their outreach to Syrian Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, in areas where the Kurds have partnered successfully with U.S. Special Operations forces to defeat the Islamic State and restore stability. U.S. commanders hope American troops can remain for 18 more months or so. But Trump has voiced his impatience with this mission.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...d3beccdd7a3_story.html?utm_term=.31fbd7e4a5f9
● Iranian-backed forces will stay at least 80 kilometers from the Israeli border on the Golan Heights.
● Israel will have tacit Russian permission to attack threatening Iranian targets in Syria, so long as Russian troops aren’t harmed. Israel has exercised this freedom of action in recent weeks to strike secret Iranian bases and block Tehran’s attempt to open a Syrian “second front” against Israel that would complement Hezbollah in Lebanon.
● Assad’s army, backed by Russian air power, will consolidate control in southwest Syria and retake posts on the Jordanian border. Jordan favors Assad’s control of the border because it might allow truck traffic to resume, boosting the cash-strapped Jordanian economy. Opposition forces in the southwest apparently will be left to fend for themselves. As thousands of new Syrian refugees flee toward a closed Jordanian border, a new slaughter of trapped civilians is possible.
● Russian military police will patrol areas of southwest Syria and perhaps other regions, in an effort to stabilize those zones. But a European diplomat cautions that any expectation that Russian power will mean security is “based on wishful thinking rather than reality.” The United States, for now, will retain its garrison at al-Tanf, in southern Syria, to block any Iranian advance there.
● Russia and the Assad regime will expand their outreach to Syrian Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, in areas where the Kurds have partnered successfully with U.S. Special Operations forces to defeat the Islamic State and restore stability. U.S. commanders hope American troops can remain for 18 more months or so. But Trump has voiced his impatience with this mission.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...d3beccdd7a3_story.html?utm_term=.31fbd7e4a5f9
Through Haaretz' twitter you can bypass the paywall
Through Haaretz' twitter you can bypass the paywall
Thanks!
Through Haaretz' twitter you can bypass the paywall
Does it work like this with NY times as well?
Don't think so. Just a few free articles per day.
60 years tomorrow since the Iraqi monarchy was overthrown:
The long-time pro-British strongman Prime Minister Nuri al-Said tried to escape disguised as a woman, but was caught and shot before his body was mutilated and dragged through the streets of Baghdad behind a car. The Crown Prince 'Abd al-Ilah suffered a similar fate, his body was apparently cut to pieces. The 23 year-old King Faisal II was shot and his body hung up on a lamp-post. The rest of his family was shot with him.
The revolution sparked panic in the West that the entire region was about to fall under Nasserist and by extension Soviet influence - Syria had joined Nasser's Egypt to form the United Arab Republic earlier in the year. So American and British troops were sent to Lebanon and Jordan respectively to stabilize the regimes there (Lebanon was in the midst of a minor civil war).
In terms of its international impact it was the biggest crisis in the region between 1956 (the Suez War) and 1967 (the 6-Day War), although the Yemen Civil War of the 60s was by far the bloodiest episode the region saw in that period. But contrary to Western fears, the new Iraqi regime distrusted Nasser, and the feeling was mutual - plans to have Iraq join the UAR never came to fruition. In fact, it set Iraq on the path to Ba'thist rule almost exactly a decade later.
The long-time pro-British strongman Prime Minister Nuri al-Said tried to escape disguised as a woman, but was caught and shot before his body was mutilated and dragged through the streets of Baghdad behind a car. The Crown Prince 'Abd al-Ilah suffered a similar fate, his body was apparently cut to pieces. The 23 year-old King Faisal II was shot and his body hung up on a lamp-post. The rest of his family was shot with him.
The revolution sparked panic in the West that the entire region was about to fall under Nasserist and by extension Soviet influence - Syria had joined Nasser's Egypt to form the United Arab Republic earlier in the year. So American and British troops were sent to Lebanon and Jordan respectively to stabilize the regimes there (Lebanon was in the midst of a minor civil war).
In terms of its international impact it was the biggest crisis in the region between 1956 (the Suez War) and 1967 (the 6-Day War), although the Yemen Civil War of the 60s was by far the bloodiest episode the region saw in that period. But contrary to Western fears, the new Iraqi regime distrusted Nasser, and the feeling was mutual - plans to have Iraq join the UAR never came to fruition. In fact, it set Iraq on the path to Ba'thist rule almost exactly a decade later.
Two articles pushing back on the much-touted idea of leveraging Russia to limit Iranian influence in Syria:
https://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-think-tanks-bark-and-the-irgc-moves-on/
https://m.jpost.com/Opinion/The-myt...rom-Iran-562269/amp?__twitter_impression=true
https://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-think-tanks-bark-and-the-irgc-moves-on/
https://m.jpost.com/Opinion/The-myt...rom-Iran-562269/amp?__twitter_impression=true
The idea Russia can curb Iran in the region is a myth. Russia have absolutely no say in Iranian involvement in Syria.
Iranian militias had been fighting in Syria long before Putin got involved.
Iranian militias had been fighting in Syria long before Putin got involved.
U.S. recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights would have no benefit.
It is true to say that previous peace talks were predicated on the idea that the Golan Heights had lost its strategic value. That is no longer the case. But, in my opinion, the change of circumstances would fail to justify U.S. recognition. No doubt the sands of the Middle East will shift again, and peace talks will resume.
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Far beyond any military/strategic value, keeping the Golan has always been about water.
Lebanon is currently in an economic crisis and hired McKinsey & Company to state the obvious.
Anyways good news for the future I hope.
Anyways good news for the future I hope.
Um, ok. I think all the principles outlined in Israel's Declaration of Independence should find expression in the Basic Laws, not just a selection.
Syrian Civil War appears to be winding down for the moment, the regime is back in control of the south-west - Dera’a and the Golan - and looks set to focus its attention on the last major (non-Kurdish) rebel stronghold in Idlib:
Syria's Assad set to recover Golan frontier as surrender deal agreed: sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...an-frontier-as-rebels-surrender-idUSKBN1K90V1
The areas that seemingly remain beyond the regime’s reach for the time being are the Turkish-backed rebel areas around the north of Aleppo and obviously the US-backed Kurdish zone in the northeast. But with Russia currently on good terms with both Turkey and the US it seems more likely that some kind of mutual acceptance of the status quo will suffice with these areas for the time being. And although the forthcoming offensive on Idlib is going to be horribly bloody probably, it looks like the major danger of a renewed escalation lies with the looming Israel-Iran/Hezbollah conflict.
Syria's Assad set to recover Golan frontier as surrender deal agreed: sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...an-frontier-as-rebels-surrender-idUSKBN1K90V1
The areas that seemingly remain beyond the regime’s reach for the time being are the Turkish-backed rebel areas around the north of Aleppo and obviously the US-backed Kurdish zone in the northeast. But with Russia currently on good terms with both Turkey and the US it seems more likely that some kind of mutual acceptance of the status quo will suffice with these areas for the time being. And although the forthcoming offensive on Idlib is going to be horribly bloody probably, it looks like the major danger of a renewed escalation lies with the looming Israel-Iran/Hezbollah conflict.
The future Kurdistan has done well in all of this.
An interesting analysis of the nation-state legislation in the WSJ. Having read a translation of the legislation published by the Times of Israel, I came to some of the same conclusions.
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5312792,00.html
Also, nicely timed
Israel Passes Controversial Law Muzzling Police on Criminal Investigations
Police and prosecutors won't be allowed to state the reason they opted to close investigation ■ Opposition slams law as attempt to whitewash Likud Party politicians who have been under investigation
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...ing-police-on-closed-criminal-cases-1.6289358
This is a really good, comprehensive article on the idea of Israel (and in comparison Slovakia and Estonia) as an “ethnic democracy” which “meets the minimal and procedural definition of democracy, but in quality...falls short of the major Western civic (liberal, consotiational and multicultural) democracies.” Well worth the read, it’s a model that can be applied in varying degrees to a lot of the states that were born out of the collapse of the Russian, Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, and will probably have a growing relevance in this century:
https://poli.hevra.haifa.ac.il/~s.smooha/download/TheModelofDemIsraelasJewDeminNN.pdf
(Should note the article is from 2002 and so some details, such as the respective Jewish and Arab birth rates, are no longer accurate)
https://poli.hevra.haifa.ac.il/~s.smooha/download/TheModelofDemIsraelasJewDeminNN.pdf
(Should note the article is from 2002 and so some details, such as the respective Jewish and Arab birth rates, are no longer accurate)
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@Raoul
Pre the Afghanistan invasion, did Afghanistan\Taliban flat out refuse to hand over Bin-Laden, or was it more a "nah, can't find him" type of approach? They must have known what was coming. Also I didn't think that Taliban and the Mujaheedin cared that much about a Saudi, after all these guys are mostly tribal, and the whole concept of "death over the West" was alien to them pre the madrassas and general feckery from Saudi-Arabia.
Granted, the invasion would have happened no matter if they handed him over in a pack with bowties, considering he was behind the first attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor.
Pre the Afghanistan invasion, did Afghanistan\Taliban flat out refuse to hand over Bin-Laden, or was it more a "nah, can't find him" type of approach? They must have known what was coming. Also I didn't think that Taliban and the Mujaheedin cared that much about a Saudi, after all these guys are mostly tribal, and the whole concept of "death over the West" was alien to them pre the madrassas and general feckery from Saudi-Arabia.
Granted, the invasion would have happened no matter if they handed him over in a pack with bowties, considering he was behind the first attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor.
They allegedly wanted evidence he was behind 9/11 before being willing to hand him over to a third country. Dubya, still enraged by the 9/11 attacks, was at that point in no mood to barter with the Taliban (who he didn't consider honest brokers in the first place), so he opted to in go in to remove the Taliban, AQ, and find Bin Laden. The Taliban then tried another a last ditch attempt to use Bin Laden as a negotiating tool to stop the bombing (this was a week into the campaign) but Dubya/Cheney and team at that point likely interpreted that as a stall tactic and simply proceeded with the campaign.
He's back in business I see....
https://www.eater.com/2018/5/9/17336380/richard-spencer-white-nationalist-credit-card-declined
Thought this cnut was dead.
@2cents
Reading through articles and comments, there seem to be divided opinions among critics of the nation-state law about how significant it will be in practice. Some say it's mainly a symbolic, populist move that will deepen the inner-Israeli divide, but won't change much in terms of actual policies. Others see serious long-term consequences, like enabling new forms of legal discrimination, or at least paving the way for later developments of that kind. What do you expect?
Reading through articles and comments, there seem to be divided opinions among critics of the nation-state law about how significant it will be in practice. Some say it's mainly a symbolic, populist move that will deepen the inner-Israeli divide, but won't change much in terms of actual policies. Others see serious long-term consequences, like enabling new forms of legal discrimination, or at least paving the way for later developments of that kind. What do you expect?
Well it would seem to depend on the ebb and flow of the conflict and the evolution of Israeli politics. As has been pointed out, the law seems entirely consistent with the raison d'etat as it’s been understood by all Zionist factions since the Declaration of Independence, and its actual wording is not essentially different from elements of the constitutional preambles of quite a few other countries. For all the problems and forms of discrimination Israeli Arabs continue to face, their situation has improved significantly over the decades, and by most accounts the Netanyahu governments of the last eight years or so have done quite a bit more to promote development and investment in Arab areas than their predecessors, despite the hardening of Zionist attitudes and much inflammatory rhetoric aimed at the Arab population in that time (even from the PM himself). So I don’t expect this new law to signal the beginning of a rolling-back of Arab rights to the much worse times of the past. My basic understanding is that the interpretation of the basic laws remains subject to the Supreme Court (very open to being corrected here though, this is not something I know a great deal about), and there currently seems little reason to suspect that the Supreme Court will interpret the new law in any light other than the spirit of the Declaration of Independence as it’s been understood since 1948.
Having said that, it’s hard to measure the significance of the intent of those who have introduced the bill. That may only become fully apparent when Netanyahu is eventually ousted and replaced from the right (something I think is at least as likely as any alternative scenarios). The law may then serve as a rallying point of some sort as pressure builds to really shift the understanding of what a “Jewish State” actually signifies. So before that happens, it would be nice to see another bill introduced reflecting these other parts of the Declaration of Independence:
“The state of Israel...will foster the development of the country for the benefit of all its inhabitants; it will be based on freedom, justice and peace as envisaged by the prophets of Israel; it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex”
(I think this is the point @Chairman Woodie made above); this would complement the Human Dignity and Liberty law of 1992 and the parts of the 1980 Jerusalem Law which protect religious rights. This could and should happen, but seems unlikely under Netanyahu.
Celebrating "Jews at the vanguard", yet arguing straight out of Carl Schmitts book - a massive antisemite. Wtf
Yes that was my point. Although I don't think the absence of a civil equality clause will necessarily harm either the individual or collective rights of minority citizens of Israel. If the absence of the clause does adversely impact on Israel's minority citizens, I think the courts would be quick to intervene.
Seems the Russians are still dangling this carrot. Like you I’m skeptical:
(Edit): a response there says that is roughly the distance from the UN line on the Golan to the Damascus suburbs.
No idea how accurate these figures are...
Iraqi invasion of Kuwait on this day in 1990:
Hard to believe its been nearly 3 decades. Remember it like it was yesterday.
The first war that was covered via the 24/7 news cycle.