I was referring to the Saud family and their theocratic associates.
Middle East Politics
- Thread starter Raoul
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I was referring to the Saud family and their theocratic associates.
How do you know this ?
Yeah 100% no Shits given by the family.
Because once you peel away the PR veneer, you have the same man responsible for masterminding a brutal campaign against the Yemeni people, spearheading calls to go to war with Iran, attempted to incite a sectarian civil war in Lebanon, and continues to support extremist insurgents in Syria. His ascension to power was nothing but a Game of Thrones-esque grab for power which is not without precedence in Saudi history.
And what makes you think the Saudis will pivot under his leadership?
Other than the Western PR guff that someone like you eat right up.
That's a very lopsided way of looking at it. The Saudis and Iranians are obviously engaged in a grand sectarian handbags in the region and both of their respective behaviors have been aimed at balancing the opposite side. The Saudis aren't going to tolerate the Iranians setting up shop on their border by way of their Houthi proxies. Likewise Khamenai has his tentacles all over region from Yemen to Lebanon, to Iraq to Syria so its obvious the Saudis are going to seek their own alliances to balance that out - in this case with the US, Israel etc.
And what makes you think the Saudis will pivot under his leadership?
Other than the Western PR guff that someone like you eat right up.
I don't know how much he will pivot Saudi policy, but there is a growing realization that the kingdom is going to have to divest off of fossil fuels and start investing in other areas in order to balance their revenue over the long run. So if MBS wants to build relationships with other countries/industries/companies etc then that's likely positive step. He is from an entire different generation and like Kim, has the ability radically transform the regional landscape. Whether he does or not is up to him.
Because the Saudi ruling family depend on the wahhabi clerics and institutions to legitimise their rule in the eyes of the people. The extremist groups like Al Qaeda and others are against the rulers of all these Arab countries for obvious reasons - they are allies of the West etc. The Saudi rulers have a pact with the wahhabis and salafis. They allow them to impose strict rules such as making women cover up compulsorily etc and in return the wahhabis support and legitimise the rule of the Sauds.
Now what has happened is, MBS doesn't want protests and unrest from the people. He also wants some progress to attract foreign investment and diversify the economy. Oil is not going to last forever. That's why they want to diversify the economy and build a new city out of scratch. All these liberal measures being taken like hosting WWE, allowing women to drive and opening theatres is done to make people happy and quell any potential unrest. At the same time, MBS will do what the wahhabis want such as bomb Yemen, oppose Shias all over the ME, oppose Iran, oppose the Syrian rulers.
MBS and the Sauds are playing a big PR stunt. It is obvious if you pay close attention. It's a giant show.
Thanks for the backgrounder Nikhil. I'd never heard of the Wahabis until just now. Very helpful indeed.
MBS is not going to turn Saudi Arabia into the Vegas strip in 6 months. They are a conservative society and even with a reformer, it will at least an entire generation propelled by a younger generation of Saudis who don't identify with the old ways, to take them to the next level. One thing is for sure - constantly branding everyone in Saudi as an Al-Qaeda supporter won't help the process along.
A genuine reformer would have engaged in at least some form of diplomatic initiative. If the Obama administration were able to come to some form of agreement with the Iranians, then there's no reason the Saudis couldn't. Instead our champion 'reformer' decides to double down on the Iranians, start a devastating war in Yemen that's caused nothing but death and famine, and attempted to re-ignite the sectarian bloodshed that devastated Lebanon decades ago. The fact that he's also humming the same tune as the likes of Trump, Kushner and Netanyahu says all you need to know about him. It certainly doesn't help brushing all Saudis are Al-Qaeda sympathisers, but normalising glorified PR merchants such as MBS as some kind of benevolent reformers will do nothing to curtail the increasing threat on stability in the region.
What incentive does he have to change course on Iran policy when Khamenai has been expanding throughout the region over the past decade and now onto Saudi's doorstep. The incentive for MBS is to strenghten alliances with anti-Iranian forces (The US, Israel, Europe) and strenghten whatever existing relationship there are with non Iran friendly states.
Oh no, I didn't mean people in KSA are Al Qaeda supporters. I meant Al Qaeda in the ME in Iraq, Syria, Yemen etc have always been opposed to the Saudi rulers.
It'll be interesting to see what happens now. I think the world moving away from oil which results in the Arab countries trying to diversify their economies will have one of two outcomes - great success with large economies like South Korea and Japan, or it leads to instability and resentment if things don't go well like how people feel in North Africa in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia.
MBS wanting a nuclear bomb is a scary thought. They'll probably get it from Pakistan, the same way North Korea got the know how and the tech. The one thing the world doesn't need right now. SA may actually use it on Iran if they could. They are an authoritarian regime that is not accountable to its people.
What incentive did the Obama administration have?
You also make the Iranians sound like the Mongolians, invading territory en masse and devastating everything in their path. They're not going to turn up at the Saudi's door steps, nor will the US allow it to get that close. I mean hell the US invaded Iraq the moment the Saudis soiled themselves after Kuwait, why would the Iranians tempt fate, especially since half the region and the States are desperately waiting for any excuse?
A genuine reformer would always exhaust the diplomatic option first, not double down on belligerence which is precisely what MBS has been doing.
The US is in a different position than the Saudis. As the world's most powerful state and one with allies and equities in the region, it has the ability to reach out to Iran to make a deal. The Saudis, who are generally on even par with the Iranians, are going to respond by attempting to balance the Iranians - both geopolitically and militarily. MBS is simply piggybacking on what the US (and Israel) are doing with their anti-nuke policy for the Iranians. He has no incentive to make friends with the Iranians as long as others are going after them.
Aside from the 3 saudi "allies" you mentioned, how many other nations in the Iranian vicinity of the middle east/ central Asia and the Caucasus are anti Iranian?
Right, so he's no different to his predecessors then. Let's not glam him up and pretend he's 'the real deal' to quote the media here.
There is obviously a difference in that he is embarking on economic policies designed to ween the kingdom off of oil and towards more sustainable industries. Part of that equation involves liberalizing domestic politics so that it makes Saudi a more attractive place for western countries to do business. That formula doesn't involve breaking bread with Khamenai since the problems between both countries run far deeper than who happens to be in charge at the moment.
Jordan, Bahrain and the UAE certainly are. It was Abdullah who coined the "Shia Crescent" phrase. Egypt to a lesser extent and will be more so the day it emerges from its latest isolationist phase and attempts to assume a greater role in the region.
Weirdly enough Azerbaijan has cold relations with Tehran and has been regularly entertaining Israeli visitors in recent years.
I also see a massive fallout between Turkey and Iran on the distant horizon.
Lol. You don't know many Saudis, do you?
In my dealings with millennial Saudis, they have been without exception the most backwards, racist, egotistical, intolerant, and misogynistic people I have ever come across. They have a sense of superiority that knows no bounds and the only thing that could possibly surpass it is their love of their monarchy. They don't want to change their ways because they believe their own hype. MBS like @Kaos has alluded to, knows this and is playing along with the West in order to score cheap PR points. All his vanity projects, like his so called futurist hub in the desert will fall flat on their arse because he and almost every Saudi in positions of influence haven't got a clue. It's what happens when nepotism and paternalistic rules of patronage reign supreme in a society that is still living in the dark ages.
They may not all support Al Qaeda, but you're living on cloud cuckoo land if you believe that they don't hold some reprehensible cultural norms which are common among all Saudis, irrespective of their religiosity. They have a ethnocentric world view, where they are at the top along with their colonial masters of Britain and latterly the US and Europe, and the rest of us (most especially Bengalis, Pakistanis and Indians, but also Filipino, Blacks and others) are merely objects for them to do as they please.
If you want a country ripe for democratic and political revolution in the Middle East, and where the young are increasingly at odds with the older generation, there's only one and it's the one that the overgrown orangutan is doing his level best to piss off.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...erusalems-old-city-under-threat-from-settlers
Christians in Jerusalem's Old City 'under threat' from settlers
Church leaders claim priests are being verbally abused and spat at while property is being vandalised in ancient walled city
Christians in Jerusalem's Old City 'under threat' from settlers
Church leaders claim priests are being verbally abused and spat at while property is being vandalised in ancient walled city
Try spinning that if you’re a Christian Zionist, or are Palestinian Christians (a bit like a certain J.Christ) the wrong type of Christian?
The Latest: US walks back claim Iran 'has' arms program
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-israel-iran-sought-nuclear-arms-54832838
Statement on Iran by the IAEA Spokesperson
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/statement-on-iran-by-the-iaea-spokesperson
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-israel-iran-sought-nuclear-arms-54832838
Statement on Iran by the IAEA Spokesperson
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/statement-on-iran-by-the-iaea-spokesperson
Netanyahu with a bit of hot air.
He's trying to push Trump over the top in case he hasn't already decided to to leave the deal.
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Lol. You don't know many Saudis, do you?
In my dealings with millennial Saudis, they have been without exception the most backwards, racist, egotistical, intolerant, and misogynistic people I have ever come across. They have a sense of superiority that knows no bounds and the only thing that could possibly surpass it is their love of their monarchy. They don't want to change their ways because they believe their own hype. MBS like @Kaos has alluded to, knows this and is playing along with the West in order to score cheap PR points. All his vanity projects, like his so called futurist hub in the desert will fall flat on their arse because he and almost every Saudi in positions of influence haven't got a clue. It's what happens when nepotism and paternalistic rules of patronage reign supreme in a society that is still living in the dark ages.
They may not all support Al Qaeda, but you're living on cloud cuckoo land if you believe that they don't hold some reprehensible cultural norms which are common among all Saudis, irrespective of their religiosity. They have a ethnocentric world view, where they are at the top along with their colonial masters of Britain and latterly the US and Europe, and the rest of us (most especially Bengalis, Pakistanis and Indians, but also Filipino, Blacks and others) are merely objects for them to do as they please.
If you want a country ripe for democratic and political revolution in the Middle East, and where the young are increasingly at odds with the older generation, there's only one and it's the one that the overgrown orangutan is doing his level best to piss off.
This.
I've worked in about every country in the ME, and with people from all the ME nations, and the Saudis are by far the most obnoxious cnuts I've ever come across.
My favourite ME country and people are Oman and Omanis.
I can't see what pulling out would achieve.
The Europeans and Russians won't follow.
It would be a stupid move for him, but I get the impression he thinks it will score him some points with his base.
Hmmm
A young Netanyahu answers questions from the Lebanese-American scholar Fouad Ajami in 1978:
Common sense dictates that the one making the claims provide the proof.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence...
i.e. they have been tried and found guilty by trump anyway and he is clearly just looking for an excuse (that Israel and I suspect the Saudis will be happy to fabricate - erm diligently find and provide)
Yep. Sounds like Iraqi WMDs saga all over again.
Are you saying then that it's justified that Saudi Arabia is dealing with Yemen in the manner it is? Or are you just being pragmatic and accepting it on those grounds?
Thread on Lebanon's first elections in nine years in which it looks like the Hezbollah-Amal alliance has gained the most: