I'm not on about chasing the title chasers. They're going to drop fewer points. We are likely to see them pull away from the pack, because that is how football works.
You brought up the five point gap to fourth, which is Spurs, and said to extrapolate that over 38 games. I would be very surprised if we're 15-20 points off fourth at the end of the season. By last season's tallies, that would see us around 10th.
You simply can't take a snapshot of the league, 12 games in, extrapolate that over 38 games, and expect it to remotely resemble the final standings. That would have Spurs in fourth on 82/83 points. In all likelihood, the team in fourth is going to have somewhere in the region of 70 points.