Keir Starmer Labour Leader

Ubik said:
At the risk of re-litigating this yet again and boring everyone - the Tories took the lead when they exchanged their very unpopular leader for a more popular one. Labour's fall in support prior to that was by at least a 2-1 margin to remain supporting parties. Labour's hedging position prior to moving to the second referendum (a policy pushed for by McDonnell and Abbott, not just Starmer) was unpopular among all voters. Saying they would re-negotiate Johnson's deal in the election and leave with that was not going to win them back many Leave voters.
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Actually no, not if you look at the timings.

It was July 2019, just before the Labour polls began to drop, when they proposed, via letter to its members, there should be a second referendum on "deal or no deal". This coincided with the Tories adopting a new leader with a pro Brexit stance.

The only boring conversations are those without nuance attempting to blame the Tory landslide on Labour leadership and policy alone.
 
Berbasbullet said:
They were damned either way on brexit in my opinion, typical that the tories bring about an awful and destructive project and somehow come out smelling like roses. :lol:
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All those Russian donors to the Tory party must be rubbing their hands together right now. Don't some of them also hold ownership in UK media outlets?
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Actually no, not if you look at the timings.

It was July 2019, just before the Labour polls began to drop, when they proposed, via letter to its members, there should be a second referendum on "deal or no deal". This coincided with the Tories adopting a new leader with a pro Brexit stance.

The only boring conversations are those without nuance attempting to blame the Tory landslide on Labour leadership and policy alone.
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Here is a record of all polls carried out during that parliament - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

As you can see, Labour's support drops well in advance of the date you just gave. The support mainly goes to remain parties.

I'm not denying Brexit impacted the vote, I was responding to your post which suggested it was the prime cause for the poll shift. I also don't think the policy prior to the second referendum would've fared any better, and could easily have fared worse.
 


This is a decent and fair assessment of Starmer’s time in charge. The tweet itself isn’t quite correct though, it goes back about two decades.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
All those Russian donors to the Tory party must be rubbing their hands together right now. Don't some of them also hold ownership in UK media outlets?
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I’m not sure, but it’s a bit concerning that they have clear donations to political parties (whether that’s Tory or not).
 
Ubik said:
Here is a record of all polls carried out during that parliament - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

As you can see, Labour's support drops well in advance of the date you just gave. The support mainly goes to remain parties.

I'm not denying Brexit impacted the vote, I was responding to your post which suggested it was the prime cause for the poll shift. I also don't think the policy prior to the second referendum would've fared any better, and could easily have fared worse.
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I have seen that. Both Labour and Conservatives are level in July. Both parties had lost ground before that date to the Brexit party and LD's (before they crashed). So my point stands.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...ection#/media/File:Uk2022polling15average.png
 
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Fluctuation0161 said:
So you understand you misrepresented the polling data? And are now trying to deflect. OK, cool.
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That's bold :lol:

Fluctuation0161 said:
Actually no, not if you look at the timings.

It was July 2019, just before the Labour polls began to drop, when they proposed, via letter to its members, there should be a second referendum on "deal or no deal". This coincided with the Tories adopting a new leader with a pro Brexit stance.

The only boring conversations are those without nuance attempting to blame the Tory landslide on Labour leadership and policy alone.
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THAT is misrepresenting polling data. I'm not even sure what I'm supposed to have misrepresented, my posts seem pretty even handed?
 
This type of infighting and cult like behavior is all to common under Starmer leadership and why Labour will never be serious opposition.

Talk about missing an open goal!
 
Sunak looks like he’s going to raise tax for the rich, meanwhile Starmer’s spokesperson has said Labour oppose any tax rises right now. Outflanked by the Tories on the left again, phenomenal.
 
esmufc07 said:
Any tax increases aren’t going to affect only the rich.
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I’d suggest you go look at what Starmer’s #1 pledge was in his leadership campaign. Labour is not supporting any tax rises at the moment, even just for the richest 5%, when it looks like Sunak is going to introduce some to the disgruntlement of many Tory MPs.
 
Anyone expecting well anything from Labour in the next 4 years has only themselves to blame. Save yourself some time and just Google the manifesto the day before the next election.
 
BobbyManc said:
I’d suggest you go look at what Starmer’s #1 pledge was in his leadership campaign. Labour is not supporting any tax rises at the moment, even just for the richest 5%, when it looks like Sunak is going to introduce some to the disgruntlement of many Tory MPs.
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Do you really believe for a second that Sunak is going to tax the top 5%, ie the very group of people who fund and provide the most support to the Tory party, while not taxing everyone else? Really?

Are you new to politics?
 
Kentonio said:
Do you really believe for a second that Sunak is going to tax the top 5%, ie the very group of people who fund and provide the most support to the Tory party, while not taxing everyone else? Really?

Are you new to politics?
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I said Labour have stated they are against any tax rise at the present (not even just on the top 5%, which is an abandonment of Starmer’s #1 pledge), meanwhile the Tories look like introducing some - the details of which are unknown yet. If you’d like to point out where I said Sunak is only going to tax the top 5%, please feel free to point out where I did so - however, I assume you’ve misread my quoted post so I’ll await your apology :)
 
You don't generally want to raise taxes (or cut spending) during an economic recovery, unless you're particularly into the "household budget" analogy.
 
BobbyManc said:
I said Labour have stated they are against any tax rise at the present (not even just on the top 5%, which is an abandonment of Starmer’s #1 pledge), meanwhile the Tories look like introducing some - the details of which are unknown yet. If you’d like to point out where I said Sunak is only going to tax the top 5%, please feel free to point out where I did so - however, I assume you’ve misread my quoted post so I’ll await your apology :)
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If I did misread your post then I'll certainly apologize, I'm not just trying to be a dick.

As for Starmer right now though its important to realize that it doesn't really matter what principled stands he takes at the moment. That might be uncomfortable reading, but its true. Right now Labour don't win any points based on what they actually do, they win points by the Tories fecking up and losing them. Starmers only job right now is to look like a genuine potential national leader and to show Johnson up at PMQs each week.

Considering what a horrible, horrible position Labour were in after the last election, we have to be pragmatic about this stuff. It's going to be 4 years before Labour are up in front of the electorate. In the meantime 90% of the public will never even know or care about the details of Labour's political stances at the moment. It simply doesn't matter that much. What does matter is avoiding getting sucked into a pointless position (bearing in mind that Labour have no power to actually change anything or even stop the Tories from changing anything) which could result in the media turning on them and the national media narrative becoming once again anti-Labour.

What Starmer is doing is working. The Tories are reeling and looking abysmal. As Napoleon said 'Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake'.
 
Sweet Square said:
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Mason is also blindly assuming that all government investment reaps rewards. There have been countless projects that have come in late and over budget, and ended up being a net drain on the economy.
 
Ubik said:
You don't generally want to raise taxes (or cut spending) during an economic recovery, unless you're particularly into the "household budget" analogy.
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Not at all. For one, you have to take into account the existing tax system of a state and its inadequacies, so blanket rules like that don’t really work. Secondly, there’s clearly an argument to be made for increasing taxes in line with government expenditure.
 
Kentonio said:
If I did misread your post then I'll certainly apologize, I'm not just trying to be a dick.

As for Starmer right now though its important to realize that it doesn't really matter what principled stands he takes at the moment. That might be uncomfortable reading, but its true. Right now Labour don't win any points based on what they actually do, they win points by the Tories fecking up and losing them. Starmers only job right now is to look like a genuine potential national leader and to show Johnson up at PMQs each week.

Considering what a horrible, horrible position Labour were in after the last election, we have to be pragmatic about this stuff. It's going to be 4 years before Labour are up in front of the electorate. In the meantime 90% of the public will never even know or care about the details of Labour's political stances at the moment. It simply doesn't matter that much. What does matter is avoiding getting sucked into a pointless position (bearing in mind that Labour have no power to actually change anything or even stop the Tories from changing anything) which could result in the media turning on them and the national media narrative becoming once again anti-Labour.

What Starmer is doing is working. The Tories are reeling and looking abysmal. As Napoleon said 'Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake'.
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This is basically a big post saying Starmer has to not do anything, aside from perform well at PMQs which has an insubstantial influence on public opinion at best, lest he incur the wrath of the media. Which Labour leader got elected on such a strategy? Attlee didn’t. Wilson didn’t. Blair didn’t. This is such a pivotal moment in politics. You keep saying ‘let the Tories make mistakes’, but that’s being their modus fecking operandi for a while now. It’s not going to be much use in a few years when they’ve fecked Johnson off and put Sunak in charge - who in the publics eye’s has done very well during the pandemic and is untainted by whatever cock-ups Boris or Hanock and co make - and reinvented themselves again with the help of a compliant media.
 
Kentonio said:
If I did misread your post then I'll certainly apologize, I'm not just trying to be a dick.

As for Starmer right now though its important to realize that it doesn't really matter what principled stands he takes at the moment. That might be uncomfortable reading, but its true. Right now Labour don't win any points based on what they actually do, they win points by the Tories fecking up and losing them. Starmers only job right now is to look like a genuine potential national leader and to show Johnson up at PMQs each week.

Considering what a horrible, horrible position Labour were in after the last election, we have to be pragmatic about this stuff. It's going to be 4 years before Labour are up in front of the electorate. In the meantime 90% of the public will never even know or care about the details of Labour's political stances at the moment. It simply doesn't matter that much. What does matter is avoiding getting sucked into a pointless position (bearing in mind that Labour have no power to actually change anything or even stop the Tories from changing anything) which could result in the media turning on them and the national media narrative becoming once again anti-Labour.

What Starmer is doing is working. The Tories are reeling and looking abysmal. As Napoleon said 'Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake'.
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A few points:

1. To be fair he is looking like a genuine future British PM by completely ignoring the state starving to death Mercy Baguma. I guess the black lives moment has passed (also Corbyn's Labour wasn't great on asylum issues either and the EU is catastrophic on it)
2. Literally no one cares about PMQs. It doesn't matter in the slightest. Corbyn beat Johnson regularly and comfortably at PMQs and yet had terrible personal polling versus him
3. Whatever you think of Corbyn and his politics it undeniably shifted the narrative around austerity and government spending. The gamble Starmer's team are taking is that you don't attempt to shift politics at all whilst in opposition and this makes you more electable. But the counter-factual is that if Labour lose the next election they will have done sweet fa to shift politics whatsoever.
4. On top of this, there is no indication that the politics Starmer's Labour want is good for the nation at large. Every indication thus far is that it's a project built entirely around appealing to the voters in Northern seats that went Labour->UKIP->Tory. Especially turning up the nationalism, patriotism and small-c conservatism dial. This would be just about bearable if it was a means to getting voters that FPTP necessitates winning onside for a radical project. E.g. Corbynism without the (correct) anti-imperialism. But there is no evidence this is a subterfuge or a cover for anything. This is all that it is. Ambitious CO2 targets by 2030? Hmm lets wait and see how that polls with swing voters in Dudley.
5. Pointless positions like opposing wearing masks in schools until the Conservatives support wearing masks in schools, at which point Labour supports it too?
6. The media narrative is not aggressively anti-Labour because Labour is not a threat to those that control/influence it any more. This goes across the board. Now that Labour is not offering radical change The Guardian and Observer can go back to supporting it and pretending they do.
7. Reeling to a steady 40% in the polls
 
BobbyManc said:
This is basically a big post saying Starmer has to not do anything, aside from perform well at PMQs which has an insubstantial influence on public opinion at best, lest he incur the wrath of the media. Which Labour leader got elected on such a strategy? Attlee didn’t. Wilson didn’t. Blair didn’t. This is such a pivotal moment in politics. You keep saying ‘let the Tories make mistakes’, but that’s being their modus fecking operandi for a while now. It’s not going to be much use in a few years when they’ve fecked Johnson off and put Sunak in charge - who in the publics eye’s has done very well during the pandemic and is untainted by whatever cock-ups Boris or Hanock and co make - and reinvented themselves again with the help of a compliant media.
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PMQ's isn't about swaying public opinion, its about formulating the media narrative. All those political journalists from all sides are watching it weekly, and watching Boris look like a fumbling fool who is getting eviscerated week after week by a calm, calculating Starmer. That then effects their perceptions and how they report political news.

As for 'in a few years' all that is just speculation and supposition. The Tories have been in power for a decade now and the same things are happening to them that happen to all governments who stay in power too long. Corruption seeps in, incompetent people rise to powerful positions via cronyism and the whole thing starts to creak at the seams. The Tories can't just reinvent themselves, because it would require the whole party to change, and that simply isn't going to happen.
 
Kentonio said:
PMQ's isn't about swaying public opinion, its about formulating the media narrative. All those political journalists from all sides are watching it weekly, and watching Boris look like a fumbling fool who is getting eviscerated week after week by a calm, calculating Starmer. That then effects their perceptions and how they report political news.

As for 'in a few years' all that is just speculation and supposition. The Tories have been in power for a decade now and the same things are happening to them that happen to all governments who stay in power too long. Corruption seeps in, incompetent people rise to powerful positions via cronyism and the whole thing starts to creak at the seams. The Tories can't just reinvent themselves, because it would require the whole party to change, and that simply isn't going to happen.
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It’s cute that you think reality influences how political journalists write. The second they perceive Starmer to be pursuing policies that threaten their interests, any glowing write-ups of how forensic he is will disappear as quickly as they arrived. Do you think Johnson only became a bumbling fool recently?

You have to dismiss it as speculation because I suspect you concede that if that is indeed what happens - Sunak becomes leader - all of a sudden Starmer’s strategy of positioning himself as competent as a contrast to Johnson but without setting the narrative on policies, looks a bit pointless. It’s treated as virtually an open secret among political journalists that Johnson is unlikely to be leader come the next election. If it is Sunak, you’d be a brave man to predict a strong showing for Labour based on Starmer’s current efforts.
 
BobbyManc said:
It’s cute that you think reality influences how political journalists write. The second they perceive Starmer to be pursuing policies that threaten their interests, any glowing write-ups of how forensic he is will disappear as quickly as they arrived. Do you think Johnson only became a bumbling fool recently?
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It’s one thing to be a bumbling fool and it’s quite another to be a bumbling fool who is openly humiliated in front of their party on a weekly basis.

You have to dismiss it as speculation because I suspect you concede that if that is indeed what happens - Sunak becomes leader - all of a sudden Starmer’s strategy of positioning himself as competent as a contrast to Johnson but without setting the narrative on policies, looks a bit pointless. It’s treated as virtually an open secret among political journalists that Johnson is unlikely to be leader come the next election. If it is Sunak, you’d be a brave man to predict a strong showing for Labour based on Starmer’s current efforts.
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You’re basically giving the Tories a massive amount of respect that they don’t deserve. Stop fearing them so much and have a little faith that Starmer might actually know what he’s doing.
 
Kentonio said:
It’s one thing to be a bumbling fool and it’s quite another to be a bumbling fool who is openly humiliated in front of their party on a weekly basis.



You’re basically giving the Tories a massive amount of respect that they don’t deserve. Stop fearing them so much and have a little faith that Starmer might actually know what he’s doing.
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It’s not about giving the Tories respect, it’s about recognising facts. They are yet to drop below 40% in spite of all their sins. Sunak is popular and has come out of this with a lot of credit, especially among political journalists who you say set the narrative. The edge Starmer has v Johnson does not replicate itself v Sunak. His biggest selling point would be nullified instantly. Rather than calling for blind faith in Starmer, his supporters should be engaging with these issues rather than burying heads in the sand.
 
BobbyManc said:
It’s not about giving the Tories respect, it’s about recognising facts. They are yet to drop below 40% in spite of all their sins. Sunak is popular and has come out of this with a lot of credit, especially among political journalists who you say set the narrative. The edge Starmer has v Johnson does not replicate itself v Sunak. His biggest selling point would be nullified instantly. Rather than calling for blind faith in Starmer, his supporters should be engaging with these issues rather than burying heads in the sand.
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The Tories problems do not rest solely with Boris. Boris is just a symptom of the much deeper problems they have.

But I know you guys love spending your time wailing and beating your chests about how terrible Starmer is, so don’t let me get in your way.
 
Kentonio said:
The Tories problems do not rest solely with Boris. Boris is just a symptom of the much deeper problems they have.

But I know you guys love spending your time wailing and beating your chests about how terrible Starmer is, so don’t let me get in your way.
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Pretty telling there’s never really much of substance in your responses, just inane stuff about trusting Starmer. Like the time Blair’s right-hand war criminal Al Campbell criticised Starmer for his vapid opposition and everyone continued to pretend it was just bitter leftists who find fault with his strategy.
 
BobbyManc said:
Pretty telling there’s never really much of substance in your responses, just inane stuff about trusting Starmer. Like the time Blair’s right-hand war criminal Al Campbell criticised Starmer for his vapid opposition and everyone continued to pretend it was just bitter leftists who find fault with his strategy.
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I’ll judge him on his own performance, I don’t need you or Alastair Campbell to tell me how he’s doing. Right now he’s cut through a 24 point Tory lead, has kept Labour clear of any major negative press, and is doing just fine.

If you miss Corbyn and his high minded moral stances while Labour fell apart, then I really don’t have much time for your opinions.
 
Kentonio said:
I’ll judge him on his own performance, I don’t need you or Alastair Campbell to tell me how he’s doing. Right now he’s cut through a 24 point Tory lead, has kept Labour clear of any major negative press, and is doing just fine.

If you miss Corbyn and his high minded moral stances while Labour fell apart, then I really don’t have much time for your opinions.
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If only Rebecca Long Bailey had won. Labour would be 20 points clear and Johnson's government would have fallen by now.
 
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