Keir Starmer Labour Leader

sun_tzu said:
22128.jpeg


c32d6ed0-ae1d-11e9-ad5b-69a6cf063cb1


so in just under a year boris has lost 3% but remained pretty level (in / around the margin for error)
Starmer has almost doubled the corbyn vote - yet some feel hes been totally ineffective.
Click to expand...

Wait until the Brexit fallout and coronavirus enquiry. That gap might be significantly bigger by then.
 
BobbyManc said:


Interesting little analysis of Labour’s results since 2010.
Click to expand...

The chart showing vote concentration in safe seats is particularly striking, I knew the vote efficiency had gone down but didn't realise the extent, particularly compared with the Tories.

od_fig3_vote_distribution.width-800.png
 
Ubik said:
The chart showing vote concentration in safe seats is particularly striking, I knew the vote efficiency had gone down but didn't realise the extent, particularly compared with the Tories.

od_fig3_vote_distribution.width-800.png
Click to expand...

I never realised how striking the 2017 UKIP collapse was. The 2019 result is what you'd expect if they all went to the Tories in the "red wall" seats, though for some reason they split evenly in the country as a whole.
 
berbatrick said:
I never realised how striking the 2017 UKIP collapse was.
Click to expand...

Really? Their purpose was pretty much null & void post 23rd June 2016 so it doesn't surprise me that their policies didn't resonate once the referendum happened.
 
F-Red said:
Really? Their purpose was pretty much null & void post 23rd June 2016 so it doesn't surprise me that their policies didn't resonate once the referendum happened.
Click to expand...

Yes I know that, I'm talking aboust the maths of going from 17 to nothing as a 3rd party in a 2-party election.
 
berbatrick said:
I never realised how striking the 2017 UKIP collapse was. The 2019 result is what you'd expect if they all went to the Tories in the "red wall" seats, though for some reason they split evenly in the country as a whole.
Click to expand...
Behold, the Sankey

4_BES_2015-17_Sankey.png
 



Wonder what would have happened with Mcdonnell in charge from 2015 instead of Corbyn.
 
berbatrick said:
There was more terrorist sympathiser ammo for the Daily Mail on him probably.
Click to expand...

McDonnell somewhat paradoxically actually appears more radical (not that I think he is) than Corbyn but he’s a better operator and more pragmatic. He’d also have dealt with the personal vilification better I reckon. I don’t think he has the same sincerity and authenticity that Corbyn did, so his mobilising power would have been less. Ultimately I strongly doubt it would have made much difference. If I had to guess I’d say McDonnell would have done slightly worse in 2017 and given his even stronger championing of a second referendum + Remain he’d also have suffered badly in 2019.
 
H10 said:
It's pretty grim for Labour and despite the shit show from the Conservatives over the past 6 months, the fact they are still leading shows how little confidence people have in the Labour party. The fact SNP get so many seats in Scotland also takes away from the Labour count, so I can't see Labour winning any elections anytime soon. A depressing thought.
Click to expand...
Grim for labour? Not at all. Lead cut to within the margin of error not long after an historic election defeat? I think that's excellent. It's unrealistic to expect massive labour leads at this point given the rebuild needed, a fresh government, people still making up their minds and current issues. It's about as good a start as you could ask for.
 
Ubik said:
It's Skwawkbox, fairly safe to disregard.
Click to expand...

I know they're hardly reliable but I have a vague notion I've heard of them breaking a few things in the past? I've never paid too much attention to them to be honest.
 
BobbyManc said:
I know they're hardly reliable but I have a vague notion I've heard of them breaking a few things in the past? I've never paid too much attention to them to be honest.
Click to expand...
They've been given stuff by Unite and Corbyn's circle before, zero chance anyone described as soft left is going to them though. Maybe Barry I suppose.
 
Labour's issue is clearly the Labour brand not Starmer.

Starmer is polling ahead of Johnson for preffered prime minister, his problem is that the public seems to view the rest of the Labour party negatively - only sane man and all that. Anyone who thinks the evidence suggests its Starmer dragging down the Labour party and not vice versa needs to give their head a wobble.
 
Keir Starmer tells Boris Johnson: your 'chaos' puts schools return at risk

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...ohnson-your-chaos-puts-schools-return-at-risk

In one of his strongest interventions to date, which is bound to draw a furious response from Downing Street, Starmer told the Observer that two crucial weeks, which should have been spent preparing for schools to reopen, have been wasted dealing with a self-inflicted “mess” that has destroyed public confidence in government.

“I want to see children back at school next month, and I expect the prime minister to deliver on that commitment. However, the commitment is now at serious risk after a week of chaos, confusion and incompetence from the government,” the Labour leader said.

“Ministers should have spent the summer implementing a national plan to get all children back to school. Instead, the last two weeks have been wasted clearing up a mess of the government’s own making over exam results.”

Starmer added that the seriousness of ministerial failings, which led to a forced U-turn last week over A-level and GCSE grades by the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, meant a generation of children risked missing out on their education.

“Restoring public confidence and getting a grip on the Department for Education must be Downing Street’s number-one priority this week. Failure to do so will leave the government’s promise of ‘levelling up’ in tatters,” he said.
Click to expand...

This seems pretty weak to me, mainly because it's such a tenuous link to draw. Perhaps it works as an argument to the public who imagine that the government is incapable of doing more than what is currently leading the media, but honestly the exam results 'crisis' has absolutely nothing to do with the issue of schools reopening. Literally, I'm rereading those quotes and paraphrases and none of them make sense.
 
Untied said:
Keir Starmer tells Boris Johnson: your 'chaos' puts schools return at risk

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...ohnson-your-chaos-puts-schools-return-at-risk



This seems pretty weak to me, mainly because it's such a tenuous link to draw. Perhaps it works as an argument to the public who imagine that the government is incapable of doing more than what is currently leading the media, but honestly the exam results 'crisis' has absolutely nothing to do with the issue of schools reopening.
Click to expand...
How is it a tenous link? Same people who have had to deal with the A Level fiasco also have to organise schools reopening. I somehow don't think they would consider it tenous link, whilst the people at the top issue dicta and bugger off for their holidays.
 
RedChip said:
How is it a tenous link? Same people who have had to deal with the A Level fiasco also have to organise schools reopening. I somehow don't think they would consider it tenous link, whilst the people at the top issue dicta and bugger off for their holidays.
Click to expand...

Except it's not is it. The teachers and schools haven't really had any more to do than they normally would (students often appeal grades even in normal times). Ofqual have nothing to do with ensuring schools are safe to reopen. And in any case the whole thing was u-turned within 2 working days, putting all the extra work onto universities, not schools.

A coherent political argument would be: "Look at what happens when our kids are not able to be in schools: They are subjected to stress and upset by Conservative incompetence, as the government was unable to effectively manage the lack of exams. We cannot allow this incompetence to multiply and put next years students at risk of the same stresses. We must ensure exams take place next year, and to do so the government must ensure schools are safe to return to in September."

Instead the forensic argument is that the two days of stress about exam results is an important factor in the safety of schools in September.
 
Untied said:
teachers and schools haven't really had any more to do than they normally would (students often appeal grades even in normal times).
Click to expand...
You know this for a fact? Are you a teacher? Do you work in a school or have some evidence to support the idea there has been no real upheaval?

Surely, you are not claiming the levels of complaints about this year's results will have been about the same as any other year, are you?

Seems that Starmer can't win: If he doesn't complain, he is too timid, if he does the link is "tenous'.
 
RedChip said:
You know this for a fact? Are you a teacher? Do you work in a school or have some evidence to support the idea there has been no real upheaval?

Surely, you are not claiming the levels of complaints about this year's results will have been about the same as any other year, are you?

Seems that Starmer can't win: If he doesn't complain, he is too timid, if he does the link is "tenous'.
Click to expand...
Schools have been closed since March. It’s clearly nonsense to claim that the past week has been crucial in determining whether it’s safe, and Starmer isn’t even opposing anything here. He’s just saying we support the government in opening schools.
 
Untied said:
Schools have been closed since March. It’s clearly nonsense to claim that the past week has been crucial in determining whether it’s safe, and Starmer isn’t even opposing anything here. He’s just saying we support the government in opening schools.
Click to expand...
No, I think his point is that events of the past couple of weeks have impacted preparations to re-open; needlessly so: this is an additional workload schools could have done without when the prioity should be on re-opening.
 
Tibs said:
He just lacks that KO Punch...
Click to expand...
He doesn't need to land a KO punch. He wants to steadily build the impression that if Labour was in power, they would be doing things properly and sensibly, unlike the blundering Tories who keep mucking stuff up.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Starmer trying to score cheap political points on Schools without pushing for any real change, shocker.
Click to expand...
Starmer is actually trying to earn permission for Labour to be heard by the electorate, credibility that Corbyn and his student-level tactics torched..

Look, he was criticised (by the usual geniuses) for saying kids should go back to school. Not only was he right - the country can't move until schools re-open - doing so gave him the credibility to attack the govt for how badly they do it and to suggest how much more competently Labour would do it. And you can be sure with this govt, they are going to do things badly. And if the School return does goes OK, and I hope it does frankly as I have two kids, there will be something else the Tories will screw up soon enough. The autumn is littered with potential bear traps for the Tories.
 
nickm said:
Starmer is actually trying to earn permission for Labour to be heard by the electorate, credibility that Corbyn and his student-level tactics torched..

Look, he was criticised (by the usual geniuses) for saying kids should go back to school. Not only was he right - the country can't move until schools re-open - doing so gave him the credibility to attack the govt for how badly they do it and to suggest how much more competently Labour would do it. And you can be sure with this govt, they are going to do things badly. And if the School return does goes OK, and I hope it does frankly as I have two kids, there will be something else the Tories will screw up soon enough. The autumn is littered with potential bear traps for the Tories.
Click to expand...
Well, I am glad you like it. And I don't doubt he would be better in charge than Boris Johnson. I would prefer a circus monkey over Boris.

But, as I said, it seems to me like trying to win points without pushing for any serious change. It is maybe a small taste if what his premiership could be be like. If he had a chance to win back Scotland, that is. Unless the plan is to out Tory the Tories In England and sacrifice Scotland?
 
nickm said:
Starmer is actually trying to earn permission for Labour to be heard by the electorate, credibility that Corbyn and his student-level tactics torched..

Look, he was criticised (by the usual geniuses) for saying kids should go back to school. Not only was he right - the country can't move until schools re-open - doing so gave him the credibility to attack the govt for how badly they do it and to suggest how much more competently Labour would do it. And you can be sure with this govt, they are going to do things badly. And if the School return does goes OK, and I hope it does frankly as I have two kids, there will be something else the Tories will screw up soon enough. The autumn is littered with potential bear traps for the Tories.
Click to expand...

Tony Blair, 2005. 9,552,436 votes.

Uncredible student-level Jeremy Corbyn, 2019. 10,269,051 votes.
 
There's a perfect intersection between people who use the phrase "student level poltics" and people who label their own food.

Both are Tories imo.
 
Untied said:
Tony Blair, 2005. 9,552,436 votes.

Uncredible student-level Jeremy Corbyn, 2019. 10,269,051 votes.
Click to expand...

2005 - 55% of seats. 35% of the total vote.
2019 - 31% of seats. 32% of the total vote.

Unfortunately, absolute numbers only tell half the story.
 
F-Red said:
2005 - 55% of seats. 35% of the total vote.
2019 - 31% of seats. 32% of the total vote.

Unfortunately, absolute numbers only tell half the story.
Click to expand...

Exactly its not about piling on votes in student towns where people will chant ooooo jeremy corbyn
Its about a pragmatic electoral platform that will allow you to compete in marginal seats and win power

so far its good that starmer seems to be making headway in the leadership polls and over the next few weeks he will have the opportunity when the EHRC report drops to show he stands by his words of taking it seriously and moving the party forwards (Not too dissimilar to Blair bringing in a new clause 4 and that being the start of making the party more electable in line with blairs popularity in the polls)
 
sun_tzu said:
Exactly its not about piling on votes in student towns where people will chant ooooo jeremy corbyn
Its about a pragmatic electoral platform that will allow you to compete in marginal seats and win power

so far its good that starmer seems to be making headway in the leadership polls and over the next few weeks he will have the opportunity when the EHRC report drops to show he stands by his words of taking it seriously and moving the party forwards (Not too dissimilar to Blair bringing in a new clause 4 and that being the start of making the party more electable in line with blairs popularity in the polls)
Click to expand...

so just to clarify, it’s not about speaking to the electorate, which is what i was responding to, it’s about speaking to the “most valuable” section of the electorate
 
sun_tzu said:
Exactly its not about piling on votes in student towns where people will chant ooooo jeremy corbyn
Its about a pragmatic electoral platform that will allow you to compete in marginal seats and win power
Click to expand...
This is exactly why our voting system is so badly flawed. Some votes are more equal than others. It would be a fairer system if the Tories didn't manipulate constituency boundaries.

I think that proportional representation is the only thing we can agree on.
 
sun_tzu said:
the broadest part of that electorate - not just a fringe echo chamber
Click to expand...

So there's a 3% difference in total vote of the two elections we're discussing. What element is the fringe echo chamber? And the missing 3% gap is the broadest part?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.