Keir Starmer Labour Leader

[Frosty]

What could labour do ahead of the next GE?

Put SAF in charge? Mark Drakeford? who?

The leader won't change but a coherent and radical policy programme is needed. And radical here means setting out a vision for the UK in the 2040s and dealing with challenges like reinventing the welfare state and automaton rather than thinking in terms of what left and right mean today.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

No we don’t. At all. The EU is our biggest market and the only market we can economically trade the quantities of fresh fish UK fisherman land on UK shores. For every thumb we try to put on the scales for UK fisherman, the EU will place a fist on the scales with tariffs. There’s no leverage whatsoever. We could ban all EU ships from the 12 mile exclusion zone and let UK boats hoover it all up and it will just rot on the pier.

It would require the government leveraging something outside of the fishing industry to get a favourable deal and there is absolutely zero appetite or motivation to do that and there never was. Fishing is worth very little in economic terms but it was a massively emotive subject that the government and right wing media used to get people riled up about the EU and behind Brexit and they can’t even be arsed to look after the industry when Brexit still has some political capital. Further down the line with Brexit done and dusted the Government will be more than happy to watch the UK fishing industry cease to exist so their private backers can get their grubby little hands on the UK fishing tariffs and flog them off to EU trawlers.

We don't know how it will play out, because from 2026 EU access to British waters will be at the discretion of the UK government.

 

[Pexbo]

We don't know how it will play out, because from 2026 EU access to British waters will be at the discretion of the UK government.

Right. So you didn’t read my post at all then.

No access to British waters for EU vessels = no access to EU markets for British vessels.

That’s the death of UK fisheries. The EU hold all the cards because they’re the ones buying our fish.

It’s like the FA suddenly declaring they want to stop so many foreigners playing in the Premier League and banning all foreigners and then all the clubs moaning when the billions of pounds that foreign broadcasters invest in the league suddenly dries up and they all go into administration.

 

[Balljy]

We don't know how it will play out, because from 2026 EU access to British waters will be at the discretion of the UK government.

But the EU can respond to that by taxes on our fish and not allowing our boats into EU water. The former is already the problem before we get to 2026.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

Right. So you didn’t read my post at all then.

No access to British waters for EU vessels = no access to EU markets for British vessels.

That’s the death of UK fisheries. The EU hold all the cards because they’re the ones buying our fish.

It’s like the FA suddenly declaring they want to stop so many foreigners playing in the Premier League and banning all foreigners and then all the clubs moaning when the billions of pounds that foreign broadcasters invest in the league suddenly dries up and they all go into administration.

I don't understand your perspective on this. You'd be sympathetic to the EU for being unnecessarily difficult to us and European countries?
EU countries would want access to British waters, and this gives us some leverage. You're assuming that European countries will quite happily accept that they're not allowed access to British waters in order for them to refuse to buy our fish?

 

[Fluctuation0161]

to keep you occupied - the opinion poll is in and you were right, it's equal both ways (4%). But lack of clarity seems to be a bigger problem.




Reading between the lines a bit, I'd guess the first tweet is a lot of people who think he's too left-wing, and the next one, too right-wing

That bloody Corbyn.

Someone pulled out of a give way and nearly hit me today. I shouted "bloody Corbyn".

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Thanks for this, and it really should get the Leader's office to lay out policies in detail. They haven't done so because of caution over Covid, waiting for that to blow over, and it has cost them dearly.

They should have chosen a different day for the by-election too!

They also should have chosen a different candidate for Hartlepool.

 

[Balljy]

I don't understand your perspective on this. You'd be sympathetic to the EU for being unnecessarily difficult to us and European countries?
EU countries would want access to British waters, and this gives us some leverage. You're assuming that European countries will quite happily accept that they're not allowed access to British waters in order for them to refuse to buy our fish?

They're already refusing to buy our fish as they're now cheaper elsewhere, so I'd guess that won't be a problem for them.

 

[Frosty]

They also should have chosen a different candidate for Hartlepool.

Maybe. But given the Tory MP lived in the Caymans, and the data showing that Starmer's negatives were a major issue, would that have made a difference?

 

[Drifter]

A shadow cabinet when the next election is five years away? Is this standard practise in the UK? What is the point of that?

To give the impression that they are doing something.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

They're already refusing to buy our fish as they're now cheaper elsewhere, so I'd guess that won't be a problem for them.

Do you think it might be a problem for French fisherman?

 

[Balljy]

Do you think it might be a problem for French fisherman?

It will, yes. and that will come up in the negotiations. The situation at the moment is that we are free to fish in our waters but can't sell a proportion of our fish anywhere whereas the EU can buy from elsewhere as they can buy from any other country they have an arrangement with. We can offer a deal for our waters, but we are now no different from other trading partners outside of the EU so we have to try and beat the other deals as well.

The EU would have short term issues in moving the trade elsewhere, but that would happen over a period of time anyway due to taxes with us being out of the EU if it were cheaper or more efficient to move fishing elsewhere.

 

[finneh]

I know but I didn't vote, my whole viewpoint has been from way before the referendum that leaving the EU couldn't possibly succeed. I have not changed my opinion one iota. It's like trying to get 200mph out of a moped, it ain't happening.

Whilst I'm apathetic to the debate I'm curious: are you willing to put your cock on the block and actually provide some forecast?

I could prophesise that Apple shares would perform poorly over the next five years and that would be a justifiable forecast. However if Apple shares doubled in that period I could comfortably point out another tech firm whose shares quintupled in that period as proof of Apples poor performance.

Whilst your forecasts of doom may be correct; I'm curious as to whether you could make several economically quantifiable predictions as to where UK economic metrics will be comparatively in 2, 5, 10, 20 years?

It's easy to make unquantifiable hunch based statements, especially ones where statistical gymnastics can retroactively prove said hunch correct. It's more interesting (and difficult) to actually be correct though?

 

[TwoSheds]

The FTSE is still climbing nicely regardless, and I'm sure we'll see a review of services in time. The EU needs our financial services.
With free trade deals signed with other countries, the opportunities for further growth are there.



Yep, this is a concern.




Temporarily.



It's far from any old shite.

The FTSE has feck all to do with the real economy but let's see. I suspect the red tape bullshit and extra cost is here to stay for a long while yet, particularly if we keep breaking the existing agreement before negotiations even start on services.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

The FTSE has feck all to do with the real economy but let's see.

That statement makes no sense.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

What's false about it?

Look at Hartlepool as an example. Starmer has underperformed the 2019 election when Corbyn was leader. By every metric.

If a "Corbyn hangover" was the problem but Starmer was working to solve it, then surely Starmer would have at least matched the 2019 performance.

 

[Mogget]

It depends what definition you are working from. Pro woke is you feel up to date and in touch with issues to do with social and racial discrimination.

People who dislike ‘wokism’ find it nauseating. People who get irate and irrational about issues that dont really affect them - eg white upper class brits smashing up london due to racism against black people on another continent. Bit of a strong reaction considering the disconnect. For me it also encompasses people who react to any differing opinion with an air or superiority, dismissiveness or belittlement. Cancel culture. Adding an ‘ist’ or ‘phobe’ to a precursor as a label to shut people down. Telling people they are talking ‘nonsense’ for holding a different view. Like the 18 year old fool in the local boozer who lectured me about all the ‘carbon we create’ then said i was clueless c**t for pointing out we cant ‘create’ carbon merely transform or transfer it due to the law of mass conservation.

The problem with this is its basically a form of bigotry. People dont like it. It creates polarisation. The left employ it much atm and it shuts down political conversation but doesnt allow any persuasion. Twitter is a left wing echo chamber. But you cant stop people voting, and its a trend that will have to be bucked to stop the disenfranchisment.

Thats just my thoughts anyway

This post accidentally sums up the whole issue. People don't like "woke-ism" because it's a form of bigotry?

If only they felt the same way about actual bigotry eh

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

This post accidentally sums up the whole issue. People don't like "woke-ism" because it's a form of bigotry?

If only they felt the same way about actual bigotry eh

maybe it’s because it’s just stupid terminology.

 

[Berbasbullet]

This post accidentally sums up the whole issue. People don't like "woke-ism" because it's a form of bigotry?

If only they felt the same way about actual bigotry eh

Spot on, people just don’t like having their views questioned, if anything ‘wokeism’ creates political debate.

 

[Gehrman]

Spot on, people just don’t like having their views questioned, if anything ‘wokeism’ creates political debate.

I think woke has becoming such dilluted term that it's virtually meaningless. But I feel it seems to me that the "extreme woke" would rather have people no-platformed and fired rather than engage in debate which grants the perception that some of them are indeed intolerant of any "dissent".

Bigotry means

" obstinate or unreasonable attachment to a belief, opinion, or faction; in particular, prejudice against a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular group."

" obstinate or intolerant devotion to one's own opinions and prejudices : the state of mind of a bigot "

of course we know that what usually comes to mind is a homophobe or racist.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Right. So you didn’t read my post at all then.

No access to British waters for EU vessels = no access to EU markets for British vessels.

That’s the death of UK fisheries. The EU hold all the cards because they’re the ones buying our fish.

It’s like the FA suddenly declaring they want to stop so many foreigners playing in the Premier League and banning all foreigners and then all the clubs moaning when the billions of pounds that foreign broadcasters invest in the league suddenly dries up and they all go into administration.

OK, but is that right?

I mean lets leave the whole EU good Brexit bad argument to one side for a moment. I heard a French fisherman say exactly this on the news yesterday.

Is this a general rule we should apply across the board. We buy it therefore we are allowed to go and get it ourselves and keep the money from it even if the resource is inside another country's territory. I thought we didn't agree with doing that anymore?

 

[Jezpeza]

Spot on, people just don’t like having their views questioned, if anything ‘wokeism’ creates political debate.

Political debate creates political debate.

Shutting people down does not. Hence why anyone voting UKIP or eurosceptic being branded and dismissed a xenophobe or racist resulted in those people voting brexit. They were never persuaded not to.

I dont think people see it

 

[Berbasbullet]

Political debate creates political debate.

Shutting people down does not. Hence why anyone voting UKIP or eurosceptic being branded and dismissed a xenophobe or racist resulted in those people voting brexit. They were never persuaded not to.

I dont think people see it

But a ‘woke’ person saying to you for example “you shouldn’t say that because X Y Z” is political debate. Is that shutting you down or is it just challenging you?

I feel like we’re both kinda generalising a lot to be fair, people who vote UKIP etc will no doubt have had people explain to them why they’re voting for a racist party.

 

[Jezpeza]

But a ‘woke’ person saying to you for example “you shouldn’t say that because X Y Z” is political debate. Is that shutting you down or is it just challenging you?

I feel like we’re both kinda generalising a lot to be fair, people who vote UKIP etc will no doubt have had people explain to them why they’re voting for a racist party.

Well this is the debate. I think there are multi facets to the term woke. The XYZ thing is political debate yes. Discussing/challenging perceptions is part and parcel. You should never fall out with people for a difference of opinion.

But ultimately in a digital age people look to the loudest voices which tend to be the ones clamouring for people to be deplatformed and cancelled and sacked for 11 years old tweets etc. Identity politics. That stuff is all over the news daily.

In the context of this thread I think that those people have become associated with Labour whether rightly or wrongly, positively or negatively and i just don't think that is appealing to voters at the moment.

 

[TwoSheds]

That statement makes no sense.

Please explain. Would you not consider the best marker of the economy as Gross Domestic Product? So how does that relate to the FTSE?

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

But a ‘woke’ person saying to you for example “you shouldn’t say that because X Y Z” is political debate. Is that shutting you down or is it just challenging you?

I feel like we’re both kinda generalising a lot to be fair, people who vote UKIP etc will no doubt have had people explain to them why they’re voting for a racist party.

Do people actually label themselves as ‘woke’ or embrace the tag if other people identify them as ‘woke’?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Whilst I'm apathetic to the debate I'm curious: are you willing to put your cock on the block and actually provide some forecast?

I could prophesise that Apple shares would perform poorly over the next five years and that would be a justifiable forecast. However if Apple shares doubled in that period I could comfortably point out another tech firm whose shares quintupled in that period as proof of Apples poor performance.

Whilst your forecasts of doom may be correct; I'm curious as to whether you could make several economically quantifiable predictions as to where UK economic metrics will be comparatively in 2, 5, 10, 20 years?

It's easy to make unquantifiable hunch based statements, especially ones where statistical gymnastics can retroactively prove said hunch correct. It's more interesting (and difficult) to actually be correct though?

I don't think anyone can give figures. To improve your economy you have to reduce your trade barriers and make it easier for people or countries to trade. The UK had the best deal a country could have hoped for with the EU and their geographical proximity. The agreement that has been negotiated has many trade barriers but then as has been said all along the UK are no longer a part of the club .

To consider Brexit a success then surely it has to make the UK better off than it was in the EU. I do not see how this is possible and the government is trying to pull the wool over people's eyes by saying we're going to have these fantastic trade deals with country x or y. At the end of the day the UK's trade will still be 70%+ with the EU and the USA so whatever minor improvement they can gain from trading with other countries, which they were doing whilst in the EU will never make up for all the barriers they've erected with the EU.

To make matters worse the UK seem to be doing their utmost to make sure they upset their potential markets. All trust with the EU has virtually evaporated, Biden is watching the NI situation, they've managed to piss off Norway regarding the fish and insulted Australia. Additionally they have a complete numbskull as their trade secretary who still hasn't managed to finish photocopying the trade deals the EU negotiated for the UK.

I do not see any way leaving the EU will improve the UK. It's not a hunch. I have seen no argument from the Leave side how possibly the Uk can be better off and we've been arguing this for over five years.

 

[Mogget]

Well this is the debate. I think there are multi facets to the term woke. The XYZ thing is political debate yes. Discussing/challenging perceptions is part and parcel. You should never fall out with people for a difference of opinion.

But ultimately in a digital age people look to the loudest voices which tend to be the ones clamouring for people to be deplatformed and cancelled and sacked for 11 years old tweets etc. Identity politics. That stuff is all over the news daily.

In the context of this thread I think that those people have become associated with Labour whether rightly or wrongly, positively or negatively and i just don't think that is appealing to voters at the moment.

Except it's absurd people find this more unappealing than the Tories and what they've done to this country in the last few years.

 

[Jezpeza]

Except it's absurd people find this more unappealing than the Tories and what they've done to this country in the last few years.

Probably. But Starmer fails to expose this. This week for instance, a seat is up in a by election yet He prattles on about wallpaper so looks like he had nothing to say (labour do) and he just comes across as running a pathetic smear campaign. Perhaps Labour just didnt learn from the last election and assumed Hartlepool was going to be a safe bet?

 

[F-Red]

yet He prattles on about wallpaper so looks like he had nothing to say (labour do) and he just comes across as running a pathetic smear campaign.

I think it's a little more than wallpaper being an issue, more the concept that if a PM is getting donors to pay for a refurb then the links to systemic cronyism and corruption was rife through the pandemic suddenly become all the more true. A smear campaign is an effort to damage or call into question someone's reputation, by propounding negative propaganda about it. The Tory parties reputation around cronyism doesn't need anyone to create propaganda when they do it so openly.

 

[Jezpeza]

I think it's a little more than wallpaper being an issue, more the concept that if a PM is getting donors to pay for a refurb then the links to systemic cronyism and corruption was rife through the pandemic suddenly become all the more true. A smear campaign is an effort to damage or call into question someone's reputation, by propounding negative propaganda about it. The Tory parties reputation around cronyism doesn't need anyone to create propaganda when they do it so openly.

All valid but the public perception is rarely based on in depth study and analysis. Lots of people dont follow politics closely and just get short snippets from the news or have a think just before they vote. The Tories, love or hate them, understand this and have a good front man and are very good at short snappy points, full of slogans. Again, Waffling on for 20 minutes about ministerial conduct code doesnt win votes. Few people care about that, or cronyism, they care about things they can personally quantify like tax, jobs, cars, plans for the economy

 

[decorativeed]

Do people actually label themselves as ‘woke’ or embrace the tag if other people identify them as ‘woke’?

I don't think so. It has become a derogatory label for someone who cares about social issues, or simply gives a shit about people other than themselves and those like them.

 

[Buster15]

I don't think anyone can give figures. To improve your economy you have to reduce your trade barriers and make it easier for people or countries to trade. The UK had the best deal a country could have hoped for with the EU and their geographical proximity. The agreement that has been negotiated has many trade barriers but then as has been said all along the UK are no longer a part of the club .

To consider Brexit a success then surely it has to make the UK better off than it was in the EU. I do not see how this is possible and the government is trying to pull the wool over people's eyes by saying we're going to have these fantastic trade deals with country x or y. At the end of the day the UK's trade will still be 70%+ with the EU and the USA so whatever minor improvement they can gain from trading with other countries, which they were doing whilst in the EU will never make up for all the barriers they've erected with the EU.

To make matters worse the UK seem to be doing their utmost to make sure they upset their potential markets. All trust with the EU has virtually evaporated, Biden is watching the NI situation, they've managed to piss off Norway regarding the fish and insulted Australia. Additionally they have a complete numbskull as their trade secretary who still hasn't managed to finish photocopying the trade deals the EU negotiated for the UK.

I do not see any way leaving the EU will improve the UK. It's not a hunch. I have seen no argument from the Leave side how possibly the Uk can be better off and we've been arguing this for over five years.

As usual, a very clear and correct assessment.
The biggest problem here is that loads of people actually believe that Brexit is done and dusted. And to a degree, the pandemic has obscured the emerging issues.
And of course the government had and still has the electorate on-side, increasingly so.
I liken Boris to the Pied Piper of Hamlin, and the electorate to the rats. He plays his tune and they (well most of them) follow enchanted by him in an act of blind faith.
How it will end remains to be seen....

 

[Gehrman]

I don't think so. It has become a derogatory label for someone who cares about social issues, or simply gives a shit about people other than themselves and those like them.

There are plenty of people who identify themselves as woke. Like some writers for the Guardian, Jack Dorsey, BLM(you weren't allowed to join their Reddit unless you were Woke), most people who are deeply into intersectionality, people who wax about CRT and unconcious bias training and the endless people on Twitter.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

All valid but the public perception is rarely based on in depth study and analysis. Lots of people dont follow politics closely and just get short snippets from the news or have a think just before they vote. The Tories, love or hate them, understand this and have a good front man and are very good at short snappy points, full of slogans. Again, Waffling on for 20 minutes about ministerial conduct code doesnt win votes. Few people care about that, or cronyism, they care about things they can personally quantify like tax, jobs, cars, plans for the economy

So the problem lots of people not being "woke" enough, in the true sense of the word. Because they don't take the time to fully understand the issues?

Our PM taking money, off the books, from private donors for a refurb is effectively a bribe. We've also had billions of pounds worth of contracts go to friends of the Tories, some of which have been ruled unlawful by a high Court judge and some of these companies have barely any trading history. If this was happening in another country we would be talking about the massive levels of corruption.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56125462

Yet UK media outlets are enabling people (including you by the looks of it?) to think it is only "wallpaper" or a "smear campaign" against the Tories.

 

[Jezpeza]

So the problem lots of people not being "woke" enough, in the true sense of the word. Because they don't take the time to fully understand the issues?

Our PM taking money, off the books, from private donors for a refurb is effectively a bribe. We've has billions of pounds worth of contracts go to friends of the Tories, some of which have been ruled unlawful by a high Court judge. If this was happening in another country we would be talking about the massive levels of corruption.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56125462

Yet UK media outlets are enabling people (including you by the looks of it?) to think it is only "wallpaper" or a "smear campaign" against the Tories.

I think you are missing the point that valid as that is non of it matters in the public perception and winning of votes.

Its this sort of morally elite sneering at the ‘thick plebs’ that has currently disconnected labour from the footfall in elections

 

[decorativeed]

There are plenty of people who identify themselves as woke. Like some writers for the Guardian, Jack Dorsey, BLM(you weren't allowed to join their Reddit unless you were Woke), most people who are deeply into intersectionality, people who wax about CRT and unconcious bias training and the endless people on Twitter.

I'd say those people are massively outnumbered by those who use it as an barbed insult against others.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

I think you are missing the point that valid as that is non of it matters in the public perception and winning of votes.

Its this sort of morally elite sneering at the ‘thick plebs’ that has currently disconnected labour from the footfall in elections

If major corruption wasting billions of pounds of taxpayers money doesn't matter then it is either because people have been told not to care about it or they don't know about it.

Contract that with the public response to "benefit scroungers" or "costly immigrants".

The variable is the media coverage.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

As usual, a very clear and correct assessment.
The biggest problem here is that loads of people actually believe that Brexit is done and dusted. And to a degree, the pandemic has obscured the emerging issues.
And of course the government had and still has the electorate on-side, increasingly so.
I liken Boris to the Pied Piper of Hamlin, and the electorate to the rats. He plays his tune and they (well most of them) follow enchanted by him in an act of blind faith.
How it will end remains to be seen....

You're right, very little has emerged so far because the pandemic has been obscuring the problems that would have appeared more evident in normal circumstances.
Unfortunately for the UK it needs a strong opposition and an unbiased press to keep the government in check and it has not had that for a long time. I fear where it is all leading.

 

[Jezpeza]

If major corruption wasting billions of pounds of taxpayers money doesn't matter then it is either because people have been told not to care about it or they don't know about it.

Contract that with the public response to "benefit scroungers" or "costly immigrants".

The variable is the media coverage.

Yes but thats it. Ultimately, flogging a dead horse to expose it isnt winning any political points its wasting time. It has been covered but ultimately Keir scored an own goal as it allowed Boris to reveal labour themselves spent £500’000 of tax payers money on said flat.

What do people find more quantifiable/relatable - some rich guys donation for a flat in westminster or what their taxes deducted from their wageslip went on?

Would probably have been better to use that PMq’s on other topics