Italy vs England vs Germany (UEFA Coefficients Race)

Italy really got tough draws:

Roma - Real
Juve - Bayern
Fiorentina - Tottenham
Lazio - Galatasaray
Napoli - Villareal

They could easily be down to two teams in the next round, maybe even less. Napoli is the only team I definitely expect to go through.

The German sides got screwed in the EL:

Wolfsburg - Gent
Bayern - Juve
Dortmund - Porto
Augsburg - Liverpool
Schalke - Donetsk
Leverkusen - Sporting

I hope we can get 4 teams through, both in the CL and Dortmund and hopefully one of Schalke or Leverkusen, but it'll be tough. Not a single team has it easy.

English clubs had more luck in the EL than in the CL

Chelsea - PSG
Arsenal - Barca
City - Kiev
Tottenham - Fiorentina
United - Midtjylland
Liverpool - Augsburg

United, Liverpool and City should comfortably go through, Tottenham's chances are 50/50 in my opinion, Chelsea is a slight underdog and Arsenal need a big surprise.

Definitely an exciting draw though.
 
United may prove me wrong but I wouldn't underestimate Midtjylland. They may not go through but scrape draws or even one win via set pieces.
 
This round will be extremely interesting. It could end up being a disaster for any of the 3 competing leagues. If all Italian teams were to go out England and Germany wouldn't have to worry anymore basically. United, Liverpool, and City should all go through so I guess England got the best draw due to EL. For the German teams anything can happen really, with Augsburg most likely to go out, and Wolfsburg probably most likely to progress. But the EL draw for the German teams isn't too good really.
 
Crossie said:
United may prove me wrong but I wouldn't underestimate Midtjylland. They may not go through but scrape draws or even one win via set pieces.
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Yeah, they're pretty great at parking the bus and hitting teams on set-pieces. That being said, United are huge favourites. I think Augsburg can surprise Klopp as well, but that doesn't mean that Liverpool aren't massive favourites to go through.
 
Think both England in Germany will have 4 teams through to the next rounds (United, City, Liverpool, Spurs; Bayern, Wolfsburg, Dortmund, Leverkusen) with Italy just having Napoli through. Spain will probably have 6 of their 7 go through, further cementing them in the top spot.
 
@Balu Somebody in the United - Midtjylland thread suggested United to go through by an 1-1 away and 0-0 at home. :lol:

Although I also consider United to be big favorites, such a scenario would come close to my thoughts when Alex Frei showed United's name today. FCM were runners-up in my "don't wanna play them" list for today's draw, because we're pathetic in defending counters and set-pieces. Tuchel has to have a serious word with our lot during the training camp.
 
It's kind of ridiculous that the PL is at risk of losing the 4th CL spot, with all of the money in the league.
 
Crossie said:
United may prove me wrong but I wouldn't underestimate Midtjylland. They may not go through but scrape draws or even one win via set pieces.
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Fecking jinx! Or scourge of bookies.
 
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html

This seems to be including today's matches.

and_it_s_gone_by_celeith-d5div3y.jpg
 
Need City to win tomorrow. Hopefully Villarreal and Spurs go through in the Europa.
 
Kasper said:
Nah, this is the one for 2017/18. You habe to include 11/12 for this year as well and England is still ahead of Italy in that case.
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Oops, my mistake. Guess the 4th spot should be save for another season then, unless a couple of upsets happen.
Next season looks quite grim though, especially considering Leicester and Spurs are very likely to make top4.
 
do.ob said:
Oops, my mistake. Guess the 4th spot should be save for another season then, unless a couple of upsets happen.
Next season looks quite grim though, especially considering Leicester and Spurs are very likely to make top4.
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:lol: Barcelona vs Leicester.

That'll take some getting used to.
 
Mrs Smoker said:
Not that bad, Italians were poor as well.
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Cheers. England will probably stay ahead of Italy for this season but English teams have to do something special in Europe within the next 15 months to stay ahead of them next season. The removal of the 11/12 season from the lists will swing this massively in Italy's favour.
 
Samid said:
Cheers. England will probably stay ahead of Italy for this season but English teams have to do something special in Europe within the next 15 months to stay ahead of them next season. The removal of the 11/12 season from the lists will swing this massively in Italy's favour.
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http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html

Current list with 2011/12 gone. Behind Italy as it stands with 0,8 points, but the teams that play in the EL next season has to perform and not do like WH and Saints.
 
Samid said:
Cheers. England will probably stay ahead of Italy for this season but English teams have to do something special in Europe within the next 15 months to stay ahead of them next season. The removal of the 11/12 season from the lists will swing this massively in Italy's favour.
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England can still make up a bit of ground this season. The Tottenham - Fiorentina tie is huge for England. Roma is basically out, Juve and Napoli are in a dificult position to go through. It could happen that only Lazio is left for Italy while City, Liverpool, United and Tottenham can all collect quite a few points for England, maybe Chelsea as well.
 
Really good night. Napoli potentially going out.

Lazio are the only real threat now unless Napoli do something special.
 
If Bayern kick Juve out then this will have been a horrible year for Italy. Would be great for England and Germany!
 
Lyricist said:
England most likely down to 4 after the return fixtures of the CL as well though.
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Italy are very likely to be down to 1. As Italy is nearest to England for that '4 CL places' spot, that's OK. I still think Chelsea will go through. On other side, Juve are capable of winning at Bayern.
 
The difference between England and Italy as of now is 3.6 coefficient points. Assuming Juve and Roma both go out now and without getting any point in return legs, Lazio alone will have to make up those 3.6 coefficient points. Italy started with 6 teams so Lazio need to get 22 points including bonuses. If they win every match from now on in Europa, including final, the max they get is 17. We are also assuming here that English teams get no point from here on which is not likely. So 4 spots for 2017-18 are secured for PL. PL teams though should really use this opportunity to capitalize so as to negate last season when Italy gained 5.5 coefficient points on England. Otherwise England may start slightly behind Italy next season which will determine 2018-19 spots.
 
The Man Himself said:
Italy are very likely to be down to 1. As Italy is nearest to England for that '4 CL places' spot, that's OK. I still think Chelsea will go through. On other side, Juve are capable of winning at Bayern.
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Definitely all true. I was stupid to respond like that as the "England dominating Europe once again" comment was clearly tongue in cheek. I'm glad that Italy is probably down to 1 as I personally want the Bundesliga to keep its 4th CL spot. So as long as one of Italy or England do badly this season I'm happy and won't care much about the other one (for longer Bundesliga security it has to be Italy because with all the money that is in English football there's no way they'll stay behind in case they fall back).

I can definitely see Chelsea turning it around as well and I'm also a bit worried about the Bayern Juve return leg. Augsburg Liverpool as well was extremely close and Schalke were quite the embarassment in the return leg. So I've got mixed feelings about the last 3 days of football but for now the best thing is that Italy will probably have a bad year that won't help them with catching up.
 
Game over for Italy, no way that they are going to make the needed difference this season. And while if we remove points of the fifth season (which get removed in the summer) England has the same amount of points as Italy, England will gain more points from now till the end of the competition than Italy, so will start with more points next season.
 
So if everything was frozen now England would start next season with a .255 handicap in the race for the 2018/19 fourth place spot. We're guaranteed a further 5 points in the Europa league though since we have a nailed on quarter finalist.

After that Lazio and City probably make it through, Chelsea is a bit of a toss up, Spurs a slight underdog and Arsenal, Juventus and Roma all likely go home. All in all I reckon next season starts as a wash or with England at a slight advantage.
 
So, minimum possibility, City are going through and one of United/Liverpool, how many points is that? (And it's divided by 8 for us, right?)

Or does it depend on winning the legs as well?
 
So, minimum possibility, City are going through and one of United/Liverpool, how many points is that? (And it's divided by 8 for us, right?)

Or does it depend on winning the legs as well?
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you get two points for a win, one each for a draw and one point just for showing up in the quarters. If City win and go through thats 3 extra points, and 5 for our guaranteed europa quarter finalists.

Yeah, its divided by the number of teams fielded in both competitions so that adds up to a single point being added on to our coefficient.
 
Last night, one Italian team lost and went out, one German team won and progressed. That results in UEFA country coefficients for CL 2017/18 as follows:

1 Spain 77.285
2 Germany 62.356
3 Italy 58.915
4 England 58.659

With (as of now) 6 English and only 2 Italian teams left, it looks as if England could defend 4 spots, even if Chelsea quits the competition tonight and taking into account that at least one English team (United or Pool) gets knocked out in the Europa League.

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html

Edit: The club ranking is very interesting too, although obviously subject to more change.

1 Real Madrid 166.628
2 Bayern München153.521
3 FC Barcelona 152.628
4 Chelsea 135.781
5 Atlético Madrid 133.628
6 Benfica 115.383
7 Paris Saint-Germain 108.416
8 Juventus 107.054
9 Arsenal 104.781
10 Borussia Dortmund 103.521
11 Schalke 95.521
12 Valencia 93.628
13 Zenit St. Petersburg 93.216
14 FC Porto 92.383
15 Manchester City 91.781
16 Napoli 90.054
17 Bayer Leverkusen 87.521
18 FC Basel 86.715
19 Sevilla 81.128
20 Manchester United 80.781
21 Tottenham Hotspur 73.781

Teams in Italics are no longer in European competitions.

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2016.html
 
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Crossie said:
Here's the update for the CL campaign 2017/18:

1 Spain 77.999
2 Germany 62.641
3 Italy 59.082
4 England 58.909

It looks as if what started as a competition of three for 4 CL spots, England, Italy and Germany, has become a competition of two, England and Italy.

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html
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England will be fine, I guess. Liverpool and City will progress to the next round in their competitions. Lazio is the only Italian team that can progress in Europe; Juventus will most likely lose.
 
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