I'm inclined to agree but it's far from certain. If English teams have been taking the Europa League a bit more seriously in recent campaigns, there wouldn't be the slightest doubt who gets 4 spots.
Italy vs England vs Germany (UEFA Coefficients Race)
- Thread starter Mrs Smoker
- Start date
Crossie, I'm a bit confused. I thought we were guaranteed 4 places for 16/17 at the start of this season based on the previous 5 seasons (2010/11, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15).
If that's the case then the 2011/12 results still count for next year and England comfortably retain their 4 spots for the 2017/18 CL campaign. The maths you're doing (If I'm right) determines how many spots in the 2017/18 regular league season England will have for the 2018/19 campaign and would still have to include next years coefficient results to be complete.
I feel like I'm not expressing myself very well.
(2010/11) + (2011/12) + (2012/13) + (2013/14) + (2014/15) = No of teams in competition 2016/17 (4 CL spots guaranteed to 2015/16 league)
(2011/12) + (2012/13) + (2013/14) + (2014/15) + (2015/16) = No of teams in competition 2017/18 (4 CL spots guaranteed to 2016/17 league)
(2012/13) + (2013/14) + (2014/15) + (2015/16) + (2016/17) = No of teams in competition 2018/19 (CL spots available in 2017/18 league still to be determined)
If that's the case then the 2011/12 results still count for next year and England comfortably retain their 4 spots for the 2017/18 CL campaign. The maths you're doing (If I'm right) determines how many spots in the 2017/18 regular league season England will have for the 2018/19 campaign and would still have to include next years coefficient results to be complete.
I feel like I'm not expressing myself very well.
(2010/11) + (2011/12) + (2012/13) + (2013/14) + (2014/15) = No of teams in competition 2016/17 (4 CL spots guaranteed to 2015/16 league)
(2011/12) + (2012/13) + (2013/14) + (2014/15) + (2015/16) = No of teams in competition 2017/18 (4 CL spots guaranteed to 2016/17 league)
(2012/13) + (2013/14) + (2014/15) + (2015/16) + (2016/17) = No of teams in competition 2018/19 (CL spots available in 2017/18 league still to be determined)
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When you look at the points due to drop out over the next two seasons... And factor in Leicester are quite possibly going to struggle in the cl next season then the 4th place is as good as gone
In some ways the pl becomes more interesting as you now have us city arsenal spurs chelsea and Liverpool fighting for three spots rather than four... Plus of course the West Ham / Leicesters as well
Does shoot down the myth about the pl being the best in the world though
Most competitive... Possibly
Moat lucrative... Almost certainly
Best... Jog on
In some ways the pl becomes more interesting as you now have us city arsenal spurs chelsea and Liverpool fighting for three spots rather than four... Plus of course the West Ham / Leicesters as well
Does shoot down the myth about the pl being the best in the world though
Most competitive... Possibly
Moat lucrative... Almost certainly
Best... Jog on
You did and you're right. The effect is always delayed by a season. If England lose the 4th CL spot to Italy next season (2016/17), it'll affect the league in the season afterwards (2017/18), when teams would play for only 3 CL spots for the then following season (2018/19).
So how is it working out now with Juve out and Man City in?
Lazio are the only threat really now. But we guaranteed a team in the quarters for Europa.
Lazio are the only threat really now. But we guaranteed a team in the quarters for Europa.
That this is celebrated, is nauseating.
How times have changed. Not so long ago, EPL fans celebrated having four teams in the quarterfinals and there was speculation that all four would make it to the semifinal if they avoid each other. Now people are happy if there are four in the CL at all.
I'd love it for England to lose a place or two, it could help us too in a weird way. No more top 4 complacency.
In other news, Italy, no more.
In other news, Italy, no more.
Well done Tottenham, you disappointed whole of England. For shame.
So if I've got this right then we still have at least an extra 0.25 to go on our coefficient (1 point each for participating in the quarters for Liverpool and City). That means that once the 11/12 season is wiped at the start of next campaign England will have at minimum a 0.536 head start in the competition for 18/19 places: (England = 59.785, Italy = 59.249).
Still could do with getting at least one team through the next round in order to consolidate the future though. If English teams lose every game from here on out then next year we'd need to beat Italian teams by a margin of 1.476 to maintain at least parity going into competing for places for 19/20.
Still could do with getting at least one team through the next round in order to consolidate the future though. If English teams lose every game from here on out then next year we'd need to beat Italian teams by a margin of 1.476 to maintain at least parity going into competing for places for 19/20.
The QF participating bonus has already been applied, so removing 11/12 for 18/19 places, as of now England has 59.534 and Italy 59.082.
I guess this season showed what a huge outlier last season was for Italy and that the panic about England maybe losing the 4th CL spot is a bit exaggerated. Serie A has lost ploints on the other leagues in 4 of the last 5 seasons. Still, England's last season was such a big feck up that they need to continue to win points back on Italy the next seasons to make up for it.
The additional EL spot through the fair play ranking hurt England quite a bit this year by the way and as far as I know the fair play qualifying is gone now. For the country coefficient that ranking has always been a punishment (I remember it when Klopp's Mainz team made it for Germany and also went out in the qualifying rounds, which hurt the coefficient a lot). Without West Ham and just looking at the regular 7 English participants, England would be on 14,1 points already for this season and not just on 12,4. And that's in a season where English clubs have still been underwhelming and you'd expect them to do better. Which shows that it shouldn't be such a big problem to keep Italy behind England.
It's still close of course, but Italy has some way to go and need to improve quite a bit to threaten the Bundesliga and the Premier League over the next years.
The additional EL spot through the fair play ranking hurt England quite a bit this year by the way and as far as I know the fair play qualifying is gone now. For the country coefficient that ranking has always been a punishment (I remember it when Klopp's Mainz team made it for Germany and also went out in the qualifying rounds, which hurt the coefficient a lot). Without West Ham and just looking at the regular 7 English participants, England would be on 14,1 points already for this season and not just on 12,4. And that's in a season where English clubs have still been underwhelming and you'd expect them to do better. Which shows that it shouldn't be such a big problem to keep Italy behind England.
It's still close of course, but Italy has some way to go and need to improve quite a bit to threaten the Bundesliga and the Premier League over the next years.
Whats the situation now?
Next year is going to be tough for English football with Leicester and Spurs in the champions league.
Next year is going to be tough for English football with Leicester and Spurs in the champions league.
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html
We're slightly ahead of Italy. Since Crossie's post, the Italian teams got knocked out while Liverpool and City progressed.
I wanted us to lose the 4th spot place for that reason tooI'd love it for England to lose a place or two, it could help us too in a weird way. No more top 4 complacency.
In other news, Italy, no more.
It just becomes top 3 complacency.
It'll always be the aim to win the league with CL qualification being the minimum requirement. No reason to wish England loses the 4th spot.
More than Germany! Woohoo!
Total dominance by Spain, hats off! The only Spanish teams that went out of competitions did so against Spanish rivals. Wow.
Ranking before the Europa Legue SF return legs (hope I get it right this time):
1 Spain 104.713
2 Germany 80.177
3 England 75.909
4 Italy 70.439
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2016.html
Ranking before the Europa Legue SF return legs (hope I get it right this time):
1 Spain 104.713
2 Germany 80.177
3 England 75.909
4 Italy 70.439
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2016.html
We even managed to nearly feck up the coefficient by being awful for 3 years.
Taking the numbers of right now, the next CL/EL campaigns see countries starting with the following coefficients (points from the to be deducted 2011/12 campaign in brackets).
1 Spain 83.856 (-20.857)
2 Germany 64.927 (-15.250)
3 England 60.659 (-15.250)
4 Italy 59.082 (-11.357)
Club-wise, it'll be interesting if Shaktar will overtake United or if you can defend the 20th position:
20 Manchester United 82.181
21 Shakhtar Donetsk 81.976
1 Spain 83.856 (-20.857)
2 Germany 64.927 (-15.250)
3 England 60.659 (-15.250)
4 Italy 59.082 (-11.357)
Club-wise, it'll be interesting if Shaktar will overtake United or if you can defend the 20th position:
20 Manchester United 82.181
21 Shakhtar Donetsk 81.976
I think Spurs should be fine. Leicester on the other hand might struggle to hold onto some of their players this summer.
Another European season in which Spain is running away in terms of UEFA coefficients ...
1 Spain 23.642 (as far as I know without the 3/6 points for the CL finalists)
2 Germany 16.428
3 England 14.250
4 Italy and Russia each 11.500
6 France 11.083
7 Portugal 10.500
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/ccoef2016.html
In terms of association ranking 2016 (relevant for CL/EL season 2017/18 if I understand it correctly), this means:
1 Spain 105.427
2 Germany 80.177
3 England 76.284
4 Italy 70.439
5 Portugal 53.082
6 France 52.749
7 Russia 51.082
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2016.html
1 Spain 23.642 (as far as I know without the 3/6 points for the CL finalists)
2 Germany 16.428
3 England 14.250
4 Italy and Russia each 11.500
6 France 11.083
7 Portugal 10.500
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/ccoef2016.html
In terms of association ranking 2016 (relevant for CL/EL season 2017/18 if I understand it correctly), this means:
1 Spain 105.427
2 Germany 80.177
3 England 76.284
4 Italy 70.439
5 Portugal 53.082
6 France 52.749
7 Russia 51.082
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2016.html
The Mighty PL, wont be long before Italy overtakes as well. The football here is just horrible.
If English teams had taken the EL seriously, Italy would struggle (at least much more) to overtake.
Yeah that's it! English teams just dont take it seriously, teams like West Ham, Southampton who fight for EL places in the PL, and when they finally get to the qualifiers, they cant even beat fodder, but oh they didnt take it seriously. Tottenham did well, but if they took Dortmund seriously, they'd beat them. Liverpool must have been the only one that took it seriously, they got to the final. But then again, they just didnt take it seriously in the final, hence Sevilla won.
Exactly. I imagine EL semifinals would always have 4/4 English teams if only they cared. I can't see any English team ever losing to a team from outside of England, if taken seriously.
Yep that's the funny thing. You clearly see that teams like West Ham and Southampton are fighting to make it into top 6 to claim European spots. To say that after that they start neglecting European competition and just don't care is quite silly.
I respectfully entirely disagree but that's a theoretical debate which we can't solve.
The thing is that English teams underestimate how much they drop UEFA coefficient points which doesn't just have an impact on the English coefficient but on the club.
With the new access and seeding rules, even Real Madrid who lead in the UEFA team ranking is in pot 2 unless they win the CL. Similarly Atletico who are 4th but will be in pot 2 unless they win the CL.
If United were to play CL next season, they'd be in pot 3. If you don't do well in the EL, Shaktar who are already in your neck could overtake you as you loose about 16 points in the 5-year calculation, they only loose about 10.
I respectfully entirely disagree but that's a theoretical debate which we can't solve.
The thing is that English teams underestimate how much they drop UEFA coefficient points which doesn't just have an impact on the English coefficient but on the club.
With the new access and seeding rules, even Real Madrid who lead in the UEFA team ranking is in pot 2 unless they win the CL. Similarly Atletico who are 4th but will be in pot 2 unless they win the CL.
If United were to play CL next season, they'd be in pot 3. If you don't do well in the EL, Shaktar who are already in your neck could overtake you as you loose about 16 points in the 5-year calculation, they only loose about 10.
But they fight for EL spot in the league, why do they do this if they do not care about the competition?
They don't underestimate anything. Everton played at 100% last season. Southampton fielded their best team against Vitesse and Midttjylland. You could make a case for West Ham stupidly fielding what was far from their best team against Astra but it's just one example.
So we've survived for another year, and actually Italy didn't do to well which has helped a lot.
But we lose 4 points for next season, which makes things very close:
And in 2018, Italy are actually ahead of us:
So we need to do better than Italy in the next two seasons to hold on to our position for around 2019/2020.
I guess the good news is that, in United, Southampton and hopefully West Ham, those are some teams that should take some Europa League points. Less sure about our Champions League teams. Come on Leicester!
But we lose 4 points for next season, which makes things very close:
And in 2018, Italy are actually ahead of us:
So we need to do better than Italy in the next two seasons to hold on to our position for around 2019/2020.
I guess the good news is that, in United, Southampton and hopefully West Ham, those are some teams that should take some Europa League points. Less sure about our Champions League teams. Come on Leicester!
With Spurs and Leicester in the CL next season, feck knows how well they'll do.
Hoping Soton and WH go deep in the EL then.
Hoping Soton and WH go deep in the EL then.
This year pretty much confirmed that Italy's last season was an anomaly. I wouldn't be too worried about England just yet, in 4 out of the last 5 seasons England was comfortably ahead of Italy and this season it hurt England quite a bit that an 8th team played in the EL qualifiers through the fair play ranking. It's easier to make points with only 7 teams in the competitions, so it should help England next season. That being said, without Chelsea and Liverpool in European competitions next season, the others really need to do well in case Italy has another strong year.
The qualifiers should already be interesting. None of Germany, England and Italy can afford to lose a club before the groupstages. Hertha could easily struggle to make it into the EL groups for Germany, the same is true for West Ham (or Southampton if United lose the FA cup final). If Juve win the coppa against Milan, Sassuolo will go into the EL qualifers. They'd also be in danger. If Milan beat Juve, Fiorentina will go into the EL qualifiers and should easily make it. Getting all teams into the group stages is highly important.
The CL qualifers are less interesting because the loser still goes into the EL groups and can make as many points as they'd make in the CL. Out of Gladbach, City and Roma, I'd say Gladbach is the most likely candidate to fail to make it into the CL, especially if they lose a few key players again.
The qualifiers should already be interesting. None of Germany, England and Italy can afford to lose a club before the groupstages. Hertha could easily struggle to make it into the EL groups for Germany, the same is true for West Ham (or Southampton if United lose the FA cup final). If Juve win the coppa against Milan, Sassuolo will go into the EL qualifers. They'd also be in danger. If Milan beat Juve, Fiorentina will go into the EL qualifiers and should easily make it. Getting all teams into the group stages is highly important.
The CL qualifers are less interesting because the loser still goes into the EL groups and can make as many points as they'd make in the CL. Out of Gladbach, City and Roma, I'd say Gladbach is the most likely candidate to fail to make it into the CL, especially if they lose a few key players again.
Wait, what do you mean? I thought that was done. Don't think that happened this year.
This season England had 8 teams in the UEFA competitions. West Ham was the 8th, they qualified through UEFA's fair play ranking. They went out in the 3rd qualifying round of the EL without reaching the group stages, therefore England had a divisor of 8 and not 6 like Italy or 7 like Spain and Germany. Take West Ham's points out of England's total and divide it by 7 instead and England would have been way better off.
My god, I didn't even realise! I thought they had already phased that out.
What the feck West Ham and Southampton. You had better do better this year god damnit.
It's now gone as far as I know. This season was the last season with teams qualifying through the fair play ranking.
This year was last in Europa for entry via fair play route which was based on last season's ranking. It has been done with from this season so in next Europa season (2016-17) there won't be teams entering via Fair Play route.