Italy vs England vs Germany (UEFA Coefficients Race)

Mrs Smoker

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It was mentioned a lot of times during the last year that England could easily drop to fourth place in UEFA Country Coefficients table. One more poor year and sure, could happen, Italy is close. And that's really bad news for City, Arsenal and Chelsea. So, will try to track the progress of English and Italian teams in Champions League and Europa League here during the season.

Currently, England stands strong. 8 out of 8 teams still in, and only West Ham United might be in trouble tonight. On the other hand, it's almost certain that Italy will continue it's European campaign with 5 teams, as Sampdoria lost their first game 0-4 at home.

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Win 2 points (1 in qualifications)
Draw 1 point (0.5 in qualifications)

Group stage (CL): 4 points
Knock-out round (CL): 5 points
Quarter final (CL and EL): 1 point
Semi final (CL and EL): 1 point
Final (CL and EL): 1 point

So, United for example could in theory get --- 2 (po) + 16 (gs) + 9 (ko) + 5 (qf) + 5 (sf) + 3 (f) = 40 points. Which is actually more than what Barcelona could get for instance.

Well, think so at least. Please let me know if something's off here...
 
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Last season was a bit of a freakishly positive year for Italy because all their teams were surprisingly successful in the Europa League while both England and Germany lost a team in the Europa League qualifiers, which hurt the coefficient. I doubt it'll happen again and both England and Germany should continue to fight for 2nd place. That being said, if Italian teams continue to get great results in the Europa League, it won't be a fight only between England and Italy for 3rd place, but a 3way fight with Germany every bit as threatened to drop to 4th as England is.

But unless Sampdoria pulls off a miracle tonight and overturns the 4-0 home loss, Italy is a bit fecked. It hurts so much to lose a team before the EL group stages. If only 5 Italian teams collect points but all their points are divided through 6, they don't stand a chance to repeat last season's points total. And that's what they need to threaten England or Germany.
 
So, the difference is just 4 points (less than it). Last year Italy won 5.5 points more than England.

I don't think that it'll be repeated, but the danger will be bigger next year when 11-12 points will get removed. When that happens (in the summer), Italy is actually higher than England in coefficients, so from now on England should do at-least as good as Italy (in fact 0.07 points better) in order to defend the fourth place. It won't be an easy job based on the pathetic performance English clubs have given in the last few years.

One other thing, is that for each English club the points they win get divided by 8, while for Italian clubs will get divided by 6. West Ham being there (fair play or for what reason they are there) might actually work in Italy's favour.

Without season 11-12 (repeating again, gets removed in te next summer), the table looks:
1. Spain 63.356
2. Germany 50.356
3. Italy 48.915
4. England 48.846

England needs to match Italy this season, or the fourth place will be gone soon enough. And then next season win at-least 2 more points than Italy.

On the other hand, kudos to Spain. Far far better than any other league.
 
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Mrs Smoker said:
Nope. Italy will be divided by 6, the number of clubs at the beginning of Euro season.
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Yep, you're right. England gets divided by 8, while Italy by 6. On other words, an Italian team winning a game wins more point than an English team doing so.

Sampdoria getting eliminated is good for England.

Edited my post to point how the results are without 11-12 season which will get removed one year from now. EPL directors should be very afraid on how things are going (and it was clear from the beginning). They should start immediately from this season altering the schedules (team that play in Europa should be left to play in EPL in next Monday) and creating other favorable things for European participants.

'The bestest ever league ever in the universe ever' brand will suffer when EPL loses the fourth place.
 
On one hand, part of me wishes that England loses that place. It might work as a kick in the arse for us, and don't let us become complacent and content with just top 4 position. Well, it will be top 3 then!
 
West Ham does not seem to take EL serious, might go out tonight and feck up the 4 CL spots come the end of the season.
 
Man-United said:
West Ham does not seem to take EL serious, might go out tonight and feck up the 4 CL spots come the end of the season.
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Sampdoria are definitely going out though.
 
If Lazio drop into EL then I could see Italian clubs getting a lot of points there. Fiorentina and Napoli are both very good teams, well above average level in Europa League, and could again go very far in the competition. Both were in semis last year and this could repeat. Liverpool and Tottenham as per usual will drop to Steaua and Almaty.
 
Balu said:
Last season was a bit of a freakishly positive year for Italy because all their teams were surprisingly successful in the Europa League while both England and Germany lost a team in the Europa League qualifiers, which hurt the coefficient. I doubt it'll happen again and both England and Germany should continue to fight for 2nd place. That being said, if Italian teams continue to get great results in the Europa League, it won't be a fight only between England and Italy for 3rd place, but a 3way fight with Germany every bit as threatened to drop to 4th as England is.

But unless Sampdoria pulls off a miracle tonight and overturns the 4-0 home loss, Italy is a bit fecked. It hurts so much to lose a team before the EL group stages. If only 5 Italian teams collect points but all their points are divided through 6, they don't stand a chance to repeat last season's points total. And that's what they need to threaten England or Germany.
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Disastrous results in the UEFA Cup/Europa League and the decline of AC Milan and Inter post-Mourinho has royally screwed Serie A over; a whole bunch of inexperienced and low-ranked teams suddenly qualified for CL and failed. Just compare what that meant for their seeding in qual. rounds, this season again they're represented by an unseeded side.

Since the introduction of the CL play-off and its champion & league routes:

(scorelines on aggregate)
* denotes seeded

PREMIER LEAGUE
09/10: Arsenal* 5-1 Celtic
10/11: Tottenham* 6-3 BSC Young Boys
11/12: Arsenal* 3-1 Udinese
12/13: -
13/14: Arsenal* 5-0 Fenerbahçe
14/15: Arsenal* 1-0 Besiktas
15/16: Man Utd*

LA LIGA
09/10: Atlético Madrid 5-2 Panathinaikos*
10/11: Sevilla* 3-5 Braga
11/12: Villarreal* 3-1 Odense BK
12/13: Málaga 2-0 Panathinaikos*
13/14: Real Sociedad 4-0 Lyon*
14/15: Athletic Bilbao 4-2 Napoli*
15/16: Valencia*

BUNDESLIGA
09/10: Stuttgart* 2-0 FC Timisoara
10/11: Werder Bremen* 5-4 Sampdoria
11/12: Bayern Münich* 3-0 FC Zürich
12/13: Gladbach 3-4 Dynamo Kyiv*
13/14: Schalke* 4-3 PAOK 4-3
14/15: Bayer Leverkusen* 7-2 FC København
15/16: Bayer Leverkusen*

SERIE A
09/10: Fiorentina 3-3a Sporting Lisbon*
10/11: Sampdoria 4-5 Werder Bremen*
11/12: Udinese 1-3 Arsenal*
12/13: Udinese 2-2 (4-5p) Braga*
13/14: AC Milan* 4-1 PSV Eindhoven
14/15: Napoli* 2-4 Athletic Bilbao
15/16: Lazio


Side note, this once again highlights the lack of dynamism in the PL. 12/13 would've been Tottenham again, I believe, if Chelsea hadn't won the CL and/or finished outside the top-4.
On the other hand it also showcases the strength in depth of the top half of La Liga, having a different side qualify each year (except for chokers Sevilla) and most of the time unseeded as well -- though in some years they were fortunate with the opponent despite this.

These Italian teams didn't really take to the EL either it seems, last two seasons saw an improvement on that front.
 
There are three main reasons for this.

1 - English teams' attitude to the Europa League is terrible, and needs to change fast. Effectively, teams in the Europa League are contributing nothing to the coefficient, which means that teams in the CL need to be competing at the business end all the time to maintain standards. Compare that to Spain, who seem to win the Europa League every year, and it's not hard to see the impact.

2 - Man City. They've basically been rubbish in Europe over the course of 5 (is that right?) seasons now and have dragged down the coefficient with them. This is likely to be seen as a bit biased, but it's pretty accurate too - they certainly haven't helped anyway.

3 - Liverpool. Just because I wanted to throw them in, but also partially because of how rubbish they were last year. So let's all blame Liverpool.
 
Man-United said:
Yeah, that will help. Only 5 Italian teams left then who all need a lot of points to overtake England from the ranking this year.
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Yes. I expect 4 English teams to do reasonably well in the CL. Also Liverpool, Southampton and Tottenham should do fine in Europa League. West Ham are rubbish. They should be punished minus 50 points for losing to Birkirkara.
 
How's the games for the Italian and Spanish teams in their league after playing EL? Do they get extra rest or something because they never seem to rest players in EL? Maybe let the EL teams from England play in the league on monday could help?
 
Sarni said:
If Lazio drop into EL then I could see Italian clubs getting a lot of points there. Fiorentina and Napoli are both very good teams, well above average level in Europa League, and could again go very far in the competition. Both were in semis last year and this could repeat. Liverpool and Tottenham as per usual will drop to Steaua and Almaty.
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Aye, they really should give it a better go because if England loses that 4th slot, it will make it close to impossible for Spurs and Pool to get back into the UCL.
 
Ish84045 said:
Aye, they really should give it a better go because if England loses that 4th slot, it will make it close to impossible for Spurs and Pool to get back into the UCL.
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Not to mention winning EL gets you CL spot these days and for Spurs it'd be more probable to win EL than to finish in top 4. Also, winning European trophy actually gives you some glory.
 
Man-United said:
How's the games for the Italian and Spanish teams in their league after playing EL? Do they get extra rest or something because they never seem to rest players in EL? Maybe let the EL teams from England play in the league on monday could help?
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Ofcourse they rest their players. They only play full strength in the later knockout stages.
 
prarek said:
Ofcourse they rest their players. They only play full strength in the later knockout stages.
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Then they must have a much better squad than the likes of Spurs/Everton or something? Because all their teams seem to go through or pick up enough points.
 
Sarni said:
Yes. I expect 4 English teams to do reasonably well in the CL. Also Liverpool, Southampton and Tottenham should do fine in Europa League. West Ham are rubbish. They should be punished minus 50 points for losing to Birkirkara.
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Hopefully, but far from guaranteed.

Will United for sure be in pot 2, or is there any chance that we'll be in pot 2? Obviously, assuming that we'll get qualified there in the first place.

City and Arsenal haven't been able to pass the first KO stage in the last 5 years. There is a good chance that will be repeated again.
 
Sarni said:
Not to mention winning EL gets you CL spot these days and for Spurs it'd be more probable to win EL than to finish in top 4. Also, winning European trophy actually gives you some glory.
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Aye, forever slipping my mind that winning the EL gives u another avenue.

I'm sure it will incentivize them now though. It's has to.

Yeah, that "winning mentality" and its importance shouldn't be overlooked. Look at At Madrid. Won the EL a couple of times and now they're a major force in europes top league/competition. (Having Simeone helps of course!).
 
Man-United said:
Then they must have a much better squad than the likes of Spurs/Everton or something? Because all their teams seem to go through or pick up enough points.
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Its more likely that english teams haven't been able to manage their squad rotation very well. Also the style of football is different. And its not a priority tournament anyway so they probably don't even want to be there in the first place.
 
Ah, good to see someone else maintaining this too. I am also maintaining coefficients of top 4 in an excel spreadsheet :)

Although, for simplicity this link can be put in OP.

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2016.html

It was shared by @Man-United and this link gets updated regularly. Next update should be after tonight's matches.



I am hoping England can build some coefficient points on Italy this season. Currently England are around 3 points ahead of Italy. Even staying within that buffer will give England 4 places in CL for 2017-18. The tricky part is season afterwards. England had +4 on Italy in 2011-12 and that will be removed for 2018-19 season consideration. So England need to build 1 coeff point at least this season and next season combined on Italy to make sure they retain 4 places for 2018-19 too.

Sampdoria is almost out so Italy is already down to 5 teams. For England, I am not much hopeful about West Ham. More the number of teams is not always good too. England's total points will be divided by 8 throughout the season and Italy's by 6. So say Soton and West Ham don't make it to group stages, 6 teams will earn points but that will be divided by 8. So 0.75 factor group stage onwards. For Italy, 5 teams are sure in group stages CL+EL combined and will be divided by 6. So factor of 0.83.
 
Short update as the qualification rounds are now over and Southampton just went out against FC Midtjylland (bit strange that it is so silent here, after West Ham went out there was an uproar of indignation here how they've let the league down). That leaves
Germany 7/7
England 6/8
Italy 5/6
teams in the competition.

Both England and Germany gained advantage over Italy because United and Leverkusen qualified for the CL group stages, which gains extra points, while Lazio (against Leverkusen) went out.

Generally I think PL teams will do well in the CL, while the Bundesliga will have a good EL year (with Dortmund+Schalke and maybe Leverkusen or Wolfsburg joining later) - Italien teams are hard to judge, they did well last year in the EL but Lazio looked really weak against Leverkusen and they've already lost Sampdoria in the qualification rounds, so we'll see.
 
Roma and Leverkusen will be fighting it out for the runner up spot in Barcelona's group and Juve despite being pot 1 seeded have City and Sevilla so it's not impossible that we could have no Italian teams in the knockout stage.
 
Amethyst said:
Roma and Leverkusen will be fighting it out for the runner up spot in Barcelona's group and Juve despite being pot 1 seeded have City and Sevilla so it's not impossible that we could have no Italian teams in the knockout stage.
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But that could be a bad thing too, both will finish 3rd at least and then can go far in the EL, which will give them good points. That's why I don't like the idea of teams "dropping down" to EL, you shouldn't get a huge amount of points, when you fail to qualify from your group.
 
Would be an absolute farce if we lost the 4th CL spot considering the financial advantage of the league.

I don't think it will happen though it certainly is feasible.
 
It's interesting that the sum of points from one country is divided by the amount of teams eligable for the european competitions.
I thought at first that the PL will have an advantage from the fact that West Ham got a qualify spot through the fair play system but looks like it may be a disadvantage with them crashing out so early as Englands divident is now 8 with only 6 teams still in the competitions, while Germany is 7/7 and Italy is 5/6.
 
The whole system is a cluster feck, but there you go. It seems to just about work.

As far as I can work out, Italy also get the "advantage" of having 5 out of 6 teams guaranteed Group Stage football. As a top 3 league, England are only guaranteed 5 out of 7 (or 8).

As soon as you get to the Group Stage you start picking up points.. Despite crashing out at the Group Stage, Birmingham City (of the Championship) picked up a respectable 10.05 points during their 2011-12 Europa League campaign, whereas United 'only' got 16.05 through the Champions League and Europa League
 
rcoobc said:
As far as I can work out, Italy also get the "advantage" of having 5 out of 6 teams guaranteed Group Stage football. As a top 3 league, England are only guaranteed 5 out of 7 (or 8).
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6 out of 7. If the 4th placed team loses the CL playoffs, they go directly into the EL group stages. Similar to how Italy's 3rd placed team, Lazio, directly went into the EL group stages after losing the CL playoffs against Leverkusen.
 
Balu said:
6 out of 7. If the 4th placed team loses the CL playoffs, they go directly into the EL group stages. Similar to how Italy's 3rd placed team, Lazio, directly went into the EL group stages after losing the CL playoffs against Leverkusen.
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Hmm, for some reason I thought we had 2 teams going through the EL qualifiers...

They must have changed it. In 2012-13 we had:
Tottenham go in at the Group Stage
Newcastle go in at the Playoff Stage
Liverpool go in at the 3rd Qualifying..
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my mistake.

Edit:

Last year we had:
Everton go in at the Group Stage
Tottenham go in at the Playoff Stage
Hull City go in at the 3rd Qualifying..
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So it must have been a recent change, or maybe it's because Spain have 5 teams in the Champions League this year (they've lost 1 Europa League team as a result).

We'll see if it goes back to normal next year. Usually the top 3 nations have 3 Europa League teams, only 1 of which come in at the Group Stage.
 
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rcoobc said:
Hmm, for some reason I thought we had 2 teams going through the EL qualifiers...
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Yeah, they changed it this season. It was different until last season. But I think it was also different for the 4th-6th placed leagues in UEFA's 5 year ranking. They also had two of the 3 EL teams in the qualifiers, so it was 4 out of 6 and 5 out of 7 guarenteed before.
 
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