Defo some code red danger shit.
Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
There’s some analysis in this report from a Japanese think-tank on the Iraqi elections of 2021 which attempts to explain the drop in support for the Iranian-backed parties in the predominantly Shi’i south (see p.31-33). It includes this graphic of polling undertaken during the research:
There are a lot of different areas of activity now. Is it going to escalate even further or will it simmer back down to a ‘normal’ level?
My guess is they'll simmer down to a normal level or perhaps everyone just tolerates the new status quo. A regional war is unlikely.
So predictably, the Iranian attack on Erbil targeting a 'Mossad HQ' was fabricated nonsense, and all they achieved was killing civilians. They also managed to kill a few kids in Pakistan too with their strikes there.
They must have the same people running their intelligence as the US and Israel. Whoever he/she is - he must have a hell of a booking agent.
I think it's patently obvious that Peshraw Dizayee was the intended target. No idea why, seems extra judicial.
Naturally the IRI categorises all acts as being against "Israel"/"Satan" etc.
I was suspicious of the initial reports because they were only being amplified by the usual propagandist accounts.
The insinuation was his Falcon group conglomerate was affiliated with Mossad, something which the Kurdish regional government has denied.
As to the real reasons why he was targeted? No idea. All I know is he's been heavily involved in the modern redevelopment of Erbil. I know Iraqi Kurdistan in general is a competitive hotbed for Iranian, Turkish and German building contractors, and perhaps the Iranians were getting shafted in favour of the other two, hence its possible they spitefully slapped the dreaded 'Mossad' label on him and punished him for it. Just a tenuous theory.
Apparently the Houthis just hit another American cargo ship.
Is it legit or simply something being amplified from a pro-Hamas/Iran type account ?
I don't see it escalating much, but don't see it calming down as long as Putin reigns.
I don't usually post news or listen to those accounts as most of it is none sense. This was reported on Al Jazeera Arabic and they don't usually mess around.
I think US forces will have to target all of those missile launchers in a single bombing run someday instead of going after a few there and then a few others there. It's no use targeting a few targets at the time if the Houthis can carry on with more attacks, especially when American military satellites probably see everything from above right now.
I’m surprised Iran hit targets inside Pakistan. I know Pakistan economy is bad, so I don’t think they will retaliate with anything besides calling back/expelling diplomats but it was rather bold from Iran. Will the US help Pakistan against Iran?
The Pakistani government aren't likely to do much beyond complain about it to assuage domestic sentiment since there's an insurgency within Balochistan that is against both the Iranian and Pakistani governments.
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Looks like shit about to go down
I am pretty much ignorant about what's up with Iran and Pakistan. Why are people freaked out so much about them? I mean more than Iran with any other country around there?
No not really, if true it looks like it's been coordinated between Iran and Pakistan. The balochistan separatist groups have been a problem for both Iran and Pakistan for a while now, they want their own state with parts in Pakistan and Iran. It's a bit weird that Iran bomb the group on the Pakistan side of the border and Pakistan (Apparently, not confirmed) then retaliate by bombing the group on the Iranian border. Weird that the victors are Iran and Pakistan and the Baloch are the losers on both occasions.
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What do you mean?
Not a good few weeks and months for our Velayat-e faqih friends in Iran.
They're currently beefing with each of the US, Israel, Iraq, and Pakistan.
Also, an ominous sign for the conditions to destabilize the entire region.
They're currently beefing with each of the US, Israel, Iraq, and Pakistan.
Also, an ominous sign for the conditions to destabilize the entire region.
Oh, I mean, some people in this thread were kinda giving me impressions that it was a very bad thing like it would start a regional war right there. I know a bit of history between Iran and countries like Iraq, Saudi, Syria, etc. But not much between Iran and Pakistan.
Ah ok I get you.
So if I have this correct, Iran attacked Baloch separatist camp in Pakistan. As a retaliation, Pakistan attacked Baloch separatist camps in Iran.
If that’s correct, then who/what cause are these Baloch separatists fighting for that has annoyed both neighbors? And why can’t these countries take care of them within their own territories and not go into their neighbors?
I’m sure I’m missing something here. @Raoul can you help me understand please.
If that’s correct, then who/what cause are these Baloch separatists fighting for that has annoyed both neighbors? And why can’t these countries take care of them within their own territories and not go into their neighbors?
I’m sure I’m missing something here. @Raoul can you help me understand please.
This may help explain things - Balochistan Factor in Pak-Iran Relations: Opportunities and Constraints
CNN just posted an article that explained a bit of the situation too.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/18/world/iran-pakistan-attacks-tensions-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/18/world/iran-pakistan-attacks-tensions-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html
The Baluch region stretches across border of both nations, so it would in a way make sense that both Iran and Pakistan are incentivized to hit them. Although one hitting the territory of the other seems a bit strange.
Seems clear enough that the Pakistani authorities felt they had to respond by hitting something across the border. But in any case, the two countries don't necessarily share the same Baluchi enemies in the region. Jundallah were long suspected of receiving support from Pakistan for their anti-Iranian operations, while the Baluchi separatists aiming to secede from Pakistan don't seem to have ever made Iran a target.
Makes the most sense of what I've read so far.
I do think the Pakistani response very well-judged though. Doing no more than mirror the Iranian strike makes it harder for Iran to claim Pakistan as an aggressor, yet demonstrates Pakistani capability to be equal to Iranian, and shows their own people that they have retaliated.
Considering Pakistan is a nuclear power I'm pleased to see they have chosen to try and avoid escalation.