Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic



IRGC claims responsibility for attacks tonight on the Erbil, claiming they've targeted espionage centres. There are reports that the US consulate in Erbil was also targeted, but the missile likely intercepted. Also reports of an attack by Erbil airport.

I've also just read that this is the first time in years that IRGC directly claims responsibility for an attack inside Iraq. It feels like an unsettling escalation.
 
jadaba said:


IRGC claims responsibility for attacks tonight on the Erbil, claiming they've targeted espionage centres. There are reports that the US consulate in Erbil was also targeted, but the missile likely intercepted. Also reports of an attack by Erbil airport.

I've also just read that this is the first time in years that IRGC directly claims responsibility for an attack inside Iraq. It feels like an unsettling escalation.
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Erbil has been hit before though: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Erbil_missile_attacks

It may be a routine tit-for-tat attack within the escalation threshold.
 
VorZakone said:
Erbil has been hit before though: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Erbil_missile_attacks

It may be a routine tit-for-tat attack within the escalation threshold.
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I appreciate the clarification, seems IRGC did indeed explicitly claim responsibility for that strike (and possibly others in Iraq).

It may be tit-for-tat, they've now stated it's in response to Israeli assassinations of IRGC leaders. Also now for what it's worth the US is saying that the consulate was not impacted.
 
jadaba said:
I appreciate the clarification, seems IRGC did indeed explicitly claim responsibility for that strike (and possibly others in Iraq).

It may be tit-for-tat, they've now stated it's in response to Israeli assassinations of IRGC leaders. Also now for what it's worth the US is saying that the consulate was not impacted.
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We'll have to wait for more details but it's always good to remember that Israel/Iran have been doing this stuff for years. And Iran's regime is a lot more cautious than people think. But they obviously have to retaliate, otherwise they look weak. But they never tend to exceed the "escalation threshold".
 
Reports of gunfire on the Israel Egypt border, Israeli news is saying it's between some armed Egyptian men and the IDF.....
 
VorZakone said:
We'll have to wait for more details but it's always good to remember that Israel/Iran have been doing this stuff for years. And Iran's regime is a lot more cautious than people think. But they obviously have to retaliate, otherwise they look weak. But they never tend to exceed the "escalation threshold".
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I now wonder how desperate the Iranian regime is now by stirring up shit through their proxies and now by themselves everywhere after over a year of Mahsa Amini protests. This thing stinks as much as the situation in Argentina was in the years prior to the Falklands War.
 
the_cliff said:
Reports of gunfire on the Israel Egypt border, Israeli news is saying it's between some armed Egyptian men and the IDF.....
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Supposedly it’s Egyptian drug smugglers, but could be wrong.
 
Iranians firing missiles at Iraqi Kurdistan. Killed a Kurdish billionaire who allegedly was helping mediate oil deals with Israel.
 
^ and also his wife and 2 children, one of them was yet to even turn 1 year old.

How IRGC isn't recognized as a terrorist organization in Canada (despite killing tens of Canadians in PS752 airliner) and the EU is beyond me.

Canada especially is these days filled with IRGC families and affiliates bringing stolen money of Iranian people to Canada, it's actually disgusting. I had to leave that place ...

Hope Iraq has the balls to drag the terror Islamic Regime in Iran to the UN Security council over invading its sovereignty.
 
Hanks said:
^ and also his wife and 2 children, one of them was yet to even turn 1 year old.

How IRGC isn't recognized as a terrorist organization in Canada (despite killing tens of Canadians in PS752 airliner) and the EU is beyond me.

Canada especially is these days filled with IRGC families and affiliates bringing stolen money of Iranian people to Canada, it's actually disgusting. I had to leave that place ...

Hope Iraq has the balls to drag the terror Islamic Regime in Iran to the UN Security council over invading its sovereignty.
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Yeah I don't see that happening. Frankly Iraq doesn't want this smoke, and would very much rather both the US and Iranians feck off out of their territory and not use their country as a proxy battleground, and rightly so. They can fire missiles at each other without sucking in Iraqi civilians as collateral.
 
Hanks said:
^ and also his wife and 2 children, one of them was yet to even turn 1 year old.

How IRGC isn't recognized as a terrorist organization in Canada (despite killing tens of Canadians in PS752 airliner) and the EU is beyond me.

Canada especially is these days filled with IRGC families and affiliates bringing stolen money of Iranian people to Canada, it's actually disgusting. I had to leave that place ...

Hope Iraq has the balls to drag the terror Islamic Regime in Iran to the UN Security council over invading its sovereignty.
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The irony.
 
Hanks said:
^ and also his wife and 2 children, one of them was yet to even turn 1 year old.

How IRGC isn't recognized as a terrorist organization in Canada (despite killing tens of Canadians in PS752 airliner) and the EU is beyond me.

Canada especially is these days filled with IRGC families and affiliates bringing stolen money of Iranian people to Canada, it's actually disgusting. I had to leave that place ...

Hope Iraq has the balls to drag the terror Islamic Regime in Iran to the UN Security council over invading its sovereignty.
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Nothing would come of it as Russia would protect Iran.
 
Kaos said:
Yeah I don't see that happening. Frankly Iraq doesn't want this smoke, and would very much rather both the US and Iranians feck off out of their territory and not use their country as a proxy battleground, and rightly so. They can fire missiles at each other without sucking in Iraqi civilians as collateral.
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Unfortunately, there's no chance of getting rid of Iran from Iraq. There are too many religious and military ties, particularly in the Najaf/Karbala/Babel areas. A good number of Iraqi politicians have varying degrees of Iranian backing as well, just as they do in Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere.
 
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Raoul said:
Nothing would come of it as Russia would protect Iran.
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Nevermind that, the notion that Iraq would go out of its way to grass Iran to the UNSC would be impossible considering how strongly embedded Iranian influence still is within Iraq, as well as the influence of the militias there. That and the poor optics considering the US/Israeli campaign in Gaza.
 
Raoul said:
Unfortunately, there's no chance of getting rid of Iran from Iraq. There are too many religious and military ties, particularly in the Najaf/Karabala/Babel areas. A good number of Iraqi politicians have varying degrees of Iranian backing as well, just as they do in Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere.
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In the short term its unlikely, nearing impossible yes. However attitudes from Iraq's shia population have shifted drastically regarding Iran, with polling suggesting the majority of Iraqi Shias now hold unfavourable views towards the Islamic republic. I recall the protests in Basra where the Iranian consulate was burned on the back of a water dispute. I think increasing Iraqi nationalist sentiment, coupled to millions of Iraqi shias waking up to the realisation that their standard of life has not improved under Iranian stewardship, and the fact they're merely being used as proxy pawns or as a means to bypass sanction, makes it hopeful that the country can rid its shackles from Iran.

The militias still hold considerable power and influence and won't be disappearing anytime soon, but I feel like Iran's excessive presence isn't a guaranteed mainstay in the future. Though that reality only becomes a possibility if US influence also wanes.
 
Kaos said:
In the short term its unlikely, nearing impossible yes. However attitudes from Iraq's shia population have shifted drastically regarding Iran, with polling suggesting the majority of Iraqi Shias now hold unfavourable views towards the Islamic republic. I recall the protests in Basra where the Iranian consulate was burned on the back of a water dispute. I think increasing Iraqi nationalist sentiment, coupled to millions of Iraqi shias waking up to the realisation that their standard of life has not improved under Iranian stewardship, and the fact they're merely being used as proxy pawns or as a means to bypass sanction, makes it hopeful that the country can rid its shackles from Iran.

The militias still hold considerable power and influence and won't be disappearing anytime soon, but I feel like Iran's excessive presence isn't a guaranteed mainstay in the future. Though that reality only becomes a possibility if US influence also wanes.
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I don't think the Iranian presence in Iraq is related to the US presence. It was ramped up because of the US during the war years, but there's a deeper cultural and religious connection between Iranians and Iraqis, and since Iraq is itself majority Shi'a and as such, always guaranteed a Shi'a PM, the connections will always be strong. This is despite the fact there is strong strain of Iraqi nationalism within the Iraqi Shi'a political structure that balances out the pro-Iranian factions.
 
Raoul said:
I don't think the Iranian presence in Iraq is related to the US presence. It was ramped up because of the US during the war years, but there's a deeper cultural and religious connection between Iranians and Iraqis, and since Iraq is itself majority Shi'a and as such, always guaranteed a Shi'a PM, the connections will always be strong. This is despite the fact there is strong strain of Iraqi nationalism within the Iraqi Shi'a political structure that balances out the pro-Iranian factions.
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I disagree with you there completely. To say the instability caused by the US invasion didn't help Iranian influence in Iraq is simply far from the truth. After the Khomeini revolution in Iran and the Iraq-Iran war Saddam was largely successful in ousting Iranian influence from Iraq. I'm not saying he was right or that he was a good leader the massacres he committed against the Shia Iraqi's were terrible and he deserved everything he got in the end but the difference between Iranian influence in Iraq during Saddams era and now is night and day. There's a reason the majority of the Shia Iraqi's welcomed the US invasion.
 
the_cliff said:
I disagree with you there completely. To say the instability caused by the US invasion didn't help Iranian influence in Iraq is simply far from the truth. After the Khomeini revolution in Iran and the Iraq-Iran war Saddam was largely successful in ousting Iranian influence from Iraq. I'm not saying he was right or that he was a good leader the massacres he committed against the Shia Iraqi's were terrible and he deserved everything he got in the end but the difference between Iranian influence in Iraq during Saddams era and now is night and day. There's a reason the majority of the Shia Iraqi's welcomed the US invasion.
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That's correct. There was limited Iranian interference in Iraq during the Saddam years, which was because Saddam was a totalitarian dictator who viciously cracked down on that sort of thing. Once the constraints of Saddam's dictatorship were removed, Iran were free to get involved inside Iraq again. But even during Saddam's time when Iran and Iraq were adversaries, the Iranians were constantly agitating to get involved in Iraqi affairs through a host of proxy organizations. For instance, the BADR brigades were created specifically to fight against Baathist elements with the likes of Mohammad Baqir and Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who both spent the period from the early 80s to the 2000s largely fighting an Iranian funded insurgency inside Iraq. After the latter Hakim's death in 2009, there were a number of Iranian splinter groups who were focused specifically on fighting the US presence in Iraq (Asa'ib al-Haq being the most notable).
 
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Raoul said:
I don't think the Iranian presence in Iraq is related to the US presence. It was ramped up because of the US during the war years, but there's a deeper cultural and religious connection between Iranians and Iraqis, and since Iraq is itself majority Shi'a and as such, always guaranteed a Shi'a PM, the connections will always be strong. This is despite the fact there is strong strain of Iraqi nationalism within the Iraqi Shi'a political structure that balances out the pro-Iranian factions.
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Not related, but US presence does serve as a rallying point for which Iranians use to justify their own presence as a counterweight. So long as the US operate within the country, especially while aiding Israel's current onslaught (which the Iraqis view with utter abhorrence), then it'll be hard to completely unshackle any Iranian influence. The mere US presence makes Iraq a target for Iranian spray and pray attacks, and when the US retaliates it only exacerbates the issue.

Iraq can only be benevolently independent if they're free from both nations, both of whom caused irreparable harm in various ways over the decades.
 
Raoul said:
That's correct. There was limited Iranian interference in Iraq during the Saddam years, which was because Saddam was a totalitarian dictator who viciously cracked down on that sort of thing. Once the safeguards of Saddam's dictatorship were removed, Iran were free to get involved inside Iraq again. But even during Saddam's time when Iran and Iraq were adversaries, the Iranians were constantly agitating to get involved in Iraqi affairs through a host of proxy organizations. For instance, the BADR brigades were created specifically to fight against Baathist elements with the likes of Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim and Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, both who spent the period from the early 80s to the 2000s largely fighting an Iranian funded insurgency inside Iraq. After the latter Hakim's death in 2009, there were a number of Iranian splinter groups who were focused specifically on fighting the US presence in Iraq (Asa'ib al-Haq being the most notable).
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Yes and that was the main reasoning behind the Iraq-Iran war and which is why the Pan Arabist Saddam was backed by the Gulf states and the US over the pan Islamist Iranian Khomeini.

Kaos said:
Not related, but US presence does serve as a rallying point for which Iranians use to justify their own presence as a counterweight. So long as the US operate within the country, especially while aiding Israel's current onslaught (which the Iraqis view with utter abhorrence), then it'll be hard to completely unshackle any Iranian influence. The mere US presence makes Iraq a target for Iranian spray and pray attacks, and when the US retaliates it only exacerbates the issue.

Iraq can only be benevolently independent if they're free from both nations, both of whom caused irreparable harm in various ways over the decades.
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Unfortunately as long as the majority of the Iraqi population is Shia then Iran will always have influence in Iraq. It is the reason why many Arab historians, scholars and leaders warned the US that invading Iraq will only empower the Iranian influence in Iraq and removing the Sunni leadership has done that. Instead of a fight between an Iraqi influenced Iraq and an Iranian one you have an Iranian one and a US one. The US have put themselves in a corner now where they can't leave as Iran will pretty much take over akin to what happened in Afghanistan.
 
the_cliff said:
Yes and that was the main reasoning behind the Iraq-Iran war and which is why the Pan Arabist Saddam was backed by the Gulf states and the US over the pan Islamist Iranian Khomeini.


Unfortunately as long as the majority of the Iraqi population is Shia then Iran will always have influence in Iraq. It is the reason why many Arab historians, scholars and leaders warned the US that invading Iraq will only empower the Iranian influence in Iraq and removing the Sunni leadership has done that. Instead of a fight between an Iraqi influenced Iraq and an Iranian one you have an Iranian one and a US one. The US have put themselves in a corner now where they can't leave as Iran will pretty much take over akin to what happened in Afghanistan.
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I don't think its as simple as that thankfully. Younger (Shia) Iraqis are overwhelmingly more secular and less partisan than their elders, who historically have been pretty receptive to Iranian influence following decades of Sunni dominated Ba'athi oppression. But now they've experienced the corruption and waning quality of life issues under Iranian sponsorship, I feel that influence will wane in forthcoming generations, irrespective of sectarian demographics.
 
Kaos said:
Not related, but US presence does serve as a rallying point for which Iranians use to justify their own presence as a counterweight. So long as the US operate within the country, especially while aiding Israel's current onslaught (which the Iraqis view with utter abhorrence), then it'll be hard to completely unshackle any Iranian influence. The mere US presence makes Iraq a target for Iranian spray and pray attacks, and when the US retaliates it only exacerbates the issue.

Iraq can only be benevolently independent if they're free from both nations, both of whom caused irreparable harm in various ways over the decades.
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Well the US has minimal troops in Iraq at the moment and those in country are only there because the Iraqi government have invited them to remain there to assist with training and as a residual rapid reaction force in case ISIS becomes a problem again. I don't think that will in any way assuage the Iranians from curtailing their activities inside Iraq since they would like to control and influence the Iraqi government to the greatest extent possible and continue using Iraq as a transit point to funnel weapons into Syria and eventually to Hezbollah and beyond. There's simply too much at stake for the Iranians to disengage from Iraq, irrespective of whether the US are there or not.
 
Kaos said:
I don't think its as simple as that thankfully. Younger (Shia) Iraqis are overwhelmingly more secular and less partisan than their elders, who historically have been pretty receptive to Iranian influence following decades of Sunni dominated Ba'athi oppression. But now they've experienced the corruption and waning quality of life issues under Iranian sponsorship, I feel that influence will wane in forthcoming generations, irrespective of sectarian demographics.
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I disagree with that completely. In fact, the young Shia Iraqis blame the US/Saddam more than Iran for their misfortune. Just wondering where you've heard this from ?
 
Kaos said:
I don't think its as simple as that thankfully. Younger (Shia) Iraqis are overwhelmingly more secular and less partisan than their elders, who historically have been pretty receptive to Iranian influence following decades of Sunni dominated Ba'athi oppression. But now they've experienced the corruption and waning quality of life issues under Iranian sponsorship, I feel that influence will wane in forthcoming generations, irrespective of sectarian demographics.
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It will take a few more years for the social norms demanded by the younger Shia generation to gain traction within Iraqi politics. Overall, the sectarian divide will probably dissipate over time, but it won't happen overnight.
 
the_cliff said:
I disagree with that completely. In fact, the young Shia Iraqis blame the US/Saddam more than Iran for their misfortune. Just wondering where you've heard this from ?
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My own personal experiences, as well as those of my family. But there also does seem to be polling data that suggests increasing secular sentiments amongst Iraqi youth: https://enablingpeace.org/youth-views/

And yes they still blame the US/Saddam more for their misfortune (which I'd actually agree with), but I don't think its outlandish to suggest there's a change in sentiment regarding Iran's influence too.
 
Raoul said:
It will take a few more years for the social norms demanded by the younger Shia generation to gain traction within Iraqi politics. Overall, the sectarian divide will probably dissipate over time, but it won't happen overnight.
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In the short term no, nothing seismic will happen. But Iraq isn't destined to forever be an Iranian pawn.
 
Kaos said:
My own personal experiences, as well as those of my family. But there also does seem to be polling data that suggests increasing secular sentiments amongst Iraqi youth: https://enablingpeace.org/youth-views/

And yes they still blame the US/Saddam more for their misfortune (which I'd actually agree with), but I don't think its outlandish to suggest there's a change in sentiment regarding Iran's influence too.
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Interesting, maybe I am leaning to personal experience with Iraqi Shias as those I've come across and most reports on Arab tv show they see Iran as the saviours against the US and Arab 'puppet' leaders of the Gulf meanwhile with the Sunnis it's the opposite.
 
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