And if things do kick off where would Iranian support come from?
Iran v US confrontation
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They wouldn't have much support other than from themselves.
Not Turkey or Russia?
The actual details of what happened are clouded in confusion and counterclaims, which is always the way in the days/weeks after these kinds of events. Very hard to draw any conclusions based on the little we know for sure.
Beyond that, it makes more sense to me for the Iranians to be behind it. While Bolton and perhaps Pompeo are up for a war with Iran, I don’t think Trump or the Pentagon are, and I think the Iranians believe the same. The sanctions are strangling Iran, Trump keeps going on about a deal, and a botched campaign against Iran would lose him the election. On the other hand, the Iranians have plenty of reasons to conduct this kind of operation. They have made threats which they now have to back up, they really don’t have many other options to hurt American interests in the region, save through their Iraqi, Lebanese and a Yemeni proxies.
They may receive some tepid support from Russia but not enough to protect them from a conflict with the US.
LBJ did not know the Gulf of Tonkin incident had been false.
Right but I’m just weighing the balance of probabilities.
President Johnson commented privately: "For all I know, our navy was shooting at whales out there."
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/congress-approves-gulf-of-tonkin-resolution-aug-7-1964-226732
If they’ve no support it would be somewhat foolish to draw the US into a war. I’m not liking where this is going.
In fairness to the Iranians, they have been set up to react after Trump's sanctions and his ditching of the Iran deal. Rohani put a lot of stock into all of that working in the latter Obama days and now that Trump has reversed it all, the hardliners in Tehran have the upper hand in terms of how to deal with the US.
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Yes, the set up is why this is worrying.
There was intel which McNamara withheld from him, which is what I'm referring to.
Yes, and I was adding within that context that it is not necessary for the president to be involved in a deceptive operation. There are numerous stories about the military and intelligence services keeping certain things from this president in particular.
Ultimately it’s an incident that happened 55 years ago in a completely different context, its only relevance to this is to show that it’s possible the US launched a false flag operation, which is something I’d accept anyway. I’m far more interested in the immediate context here.
In terms of what this is all about, I still deem it the most likely scenario that Trump is after a new nuclear deal of his own making (which he won't get), and his incompetence and a mishmash of interests in Washington have lead the US into a tricky situation. Way too aggressive to back down, too little to back it up. If the Iranian regime indeed calculates with Trump not being prepared to launch a full scale war, and that calculation proves to be correct, then Iran has quite a bit of leeway to make life uncomfortable for the US in this crisis. In that case, it's hard to imagine they'd accept a solution short of a humiliation that evens out theirs.
It would also mean the Iranian regime are superior strategists to the clowns in Washington. Which is not the most outrageous claim, admittedly.
It would also mean the Iranian regime are superior strategists to the clowns in Washington. Which is not the most outrageous claim, admittedly.
This is probably spot on. The inevitable result of when a thin skinned reality TV narcissist encounters a messianic fanatic. Miscalculations are inevitable.
Hm, on the one hand, yes. On the other, it wasn't all that different the last time, when the head honcho came from a respected political dynasty.
Edit: Libya should count too, which was in between.
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I'm a shade puzzled why you've put attack in quotation marks. One was sunk, how is that not an attack? I'm not commenting on who did it, I genuinely don't know.
Liberal hero
I will do my duty Not to vote for any Democrat who votes for war, no matter the consequence.
This is absolute Bullshit.
EDIT:
So the Democratic party is better?
The choice is Evil...and Evil.
I'm out.
This is absolute Bullshit.
EDIT:
So the Democratic party is better?
The choice is Evil...and Evil.
I'm out.
Under the table perhaps. But I've read that iran is quite well liked in the middle east, her neighbours would cower in fear if Iran falls. Refugees, terrorist, instability, and all that. Add to that the hizbollah and iran proxy near israel. It could get really ugly for the middle east. The best case is they get destroyed like iraq and the aftermath is scarier than a conventional war
If somehow by miracles the iranian manages to hold themselves the us would suffer economically and god knows what that'll do to the global economic
For me this is a very good indications that it's a false flag. With the us in full alert and horny mode if it's indeed iran you can bet the pentagon would push through and launch a counter offensive sooner than just posturing and ready for talks if iran wants to talk.
Iran would be a much tougher nut to crack than Iraq was, should we go in on the ground. It wouldn’t take miracles to stymie a land invasion of that place.
She will fall. Nobody doubt that. Just a matter of how long. Only question is what's next
Fall why? How many troops exactly are America going to commit to combat the 523,000 regular Iranian troops and the potential 11 million people they can call up to the militia in this extremely proud and nationalistic country with one of the oldest histories on the planet? Oh and its one of the most mountainous countries in the world.
America can certainly bomb the shit out of them, but I have no idea why people think an invasion is in the slightest bit plausible. America would have to commit massive numbers to it, would suffer outrageous casualty levels in the guerilla style combat the Iranians have been training for for decades. There's about zero chance that the US public would stomach that, and even if they did there's no guarantee America would succeed any more than they did in Vietnam.
Hit the nail on the head there.
I’m puzzled too. I was trying to tread carefully and I think I treaded too carefully.
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No point saying you’re out. One of the two parties are going to win and one is much worse than the other. One will leave you under the rule of the US and one will leave you under the rule of Russia. If it’s Russia you prefer then fine, if it’s not then you need to vote...or leave the country.
Late night post from me, apologies. I think I need some sort of breathalyser thing on the laptop that cuts the power when triggered.If we vote to kill innocent people..children, then we have sided with Evil.
I will vote Bernie and for anyone that does not vote for murder.
That is what I meant.
That’s ok then.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trum...iran-tanker-pompeo_n_5d072ea3e4b0985c419ff17d
Casting the Trump administration’s credibility gap into sharp relief, allies like Japan and Germany have demanded more “credible” evidence to support the U.S. claim.
Casting the Trump administration’s credibility gap into sharp relief, allies like Japan and Germany have demanded more “credible” evidence to support the U.S. claim.
America trying bullying as per usual. The world would be a better place if Columbus never found usa. The simpsons had the right Idea with the glass dome
Would it?
Soviets would probably have overrun Europe, Imperial Japan might have continued to go from strength to strength. European Empires might have even gone on a little longer without US pressure.
US isn't perfect and has done plenty of harm, but let's not act like they're a sole source of evil in the world who have never done anything good. It's a very narrow way to view things .. I get US bashing is very popular and all but still.
There are so many things ridiculous about that statement I'm not sure it's even worth to respond to. Your conveniently glancing over the bulk of world history there.
Don't be so quick to judge.
A glass dome over the United States would be a massive net positive for the world. For one thing it saves the rest of us from the Kardashians. Trying my new anti imperialist Jimmy Fallon routine
A glass dome over the United States would be a massive net positive for the world. For one thing it saves the rest of us from the Kardashians. Trying my new anti imperialist Jimmy Fallon routine
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That'll depends on how you define fall.
It's not a Trump problem. It's an American problem. Look at Adam Schiff?
How do you define fall?
It depends on the goal. It would be possible to defeat the conventional military and bring down the current regime. You can't do guerrilla warfare with ships, aircraft and tanks, and most of their equipment is outdated and/or out of service. Their current military has almost zero experience of modern conventional conflict and hasn't the means to train for it.
The problem is what happens after that phase and without accepting total war it would be pretty much impossible to make any headway. You would assume given the last 20 years the US goal would be to install their own puppet regime. They could do it, but it would be extremely unlikely to last in a place like Iran.