India politics thread
- Thread starter Shiva87
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Changing the base year for calculating GDP happens regularly as a matter of course, in fact the decision to change the base year was taken by the Congress government. Never has this been an issue, but now that they've got nothing to talk about congress is creating controversy over the stupidest things.
This is the lakshman rekha, is she wins that's it.
Did you read the article you shared?
"But it is hard to see a systematic bias in the latest mistakes"
"The new database may be dodgy, but the old sources had flaws too."
"But in the overhauled figures, which draw on mca21, the service sector is actually smaller than it was in the old figures"
Out of context seems to be a recurring theme here.
To sharpen the statistical focus, India’s data-gatherers tried to carry out a big survey of service companies in 2016-17. They set about contacting over 35,000 enterprises, drawn from a list of registered companies that file accounts online with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs under an initiative called “mca21”. But the online list did not match on-the-ground realities.
Many (12%) of the companies could not be traced. Others (5%) had closed since the list was compiled. Yet others (21%) were not service companies after all. And many bosses were reluctant to answer or sign off on the survey.
That throws fresh doubt on India’s gdp figures, which have drawn heavily on the same mca21 source since an overhaul in 2015. That overhaul, many feel, has overstated recent growth rates. (It also led to a politically convenient downward revision of growth under the previous government.) The gdp flap, combined with the government’s attempt late last year to suppress embarrassingly bad jobs figures, have badly damaged the credibility of Indian statistics.
"old one had flaws so we are gonna introduce even more flaws and make it more dodgy"
Great plan there.
Introducing new data sources is standard practice. GDP base price is supposed to be changed every 5 years. The entire para you quoted is followed by this sentence
"But in the overhauled figures, which draw on mca21, the service sector is actually smaller than it was in the old figures". After the senationalist headline the next line reads "But it is hard to see a systematic bias in the latest mistakes". I mean you have the context staring right at you but you choose to ignore it. Why would you even look at data when you've already made your mind up. I haven't given you any data, the article you shared proves my point
Statistics/sampling is an imperfect science, but have you ever heard BJP questioning growth figures? Say what you want about them, they'll never drag the country through the mud just to get to power. Its not even as if the govt. hasnt made any mistakes in its tenure(demo) why not take them to task over those decisions instead of inventing castles in the air.
The economist isn't the Cngress, and they aren't the only ones questioning the growth numbers.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...-needs-to-be-cleared/articleshow/68581012.cms
THe point of that Vidared's graphic that you questioned was that *if* the GDP figures were correct, it should be reflected in other numbers. But those other numbers look equal or worse than the numbers of UPA-2 (not UPA-1), which was widely acknowledged to be a dismal govt with terrible GDP numbers (by their own estimates).
That man needs a meeting with Yogi, Yogi would have sorted him out.
I wish someone would make a tv programme which would show stories like this across the borders in India and Pakistan. This could be a person anywhere in India or Pakistan, or even Bangladesh. The 99% all face the same difficulties.
That's true. You could mute this video and only have subtitles, you wouldn't be able to to say which south Asian country it is.
The article you quoted says: "I just think that we need now to essentially clean up, find out what in fact is the source of confusion with the new GDP numbers, with the revisions etc. I would say setting up an impartial body to look at it is an important step to resorting confidence," he said. Rajan doesn't really question the numbers, he says that they need to be investigated. The economist has actually done the investigation and if you look at the article coolredwine quoted(which actually supports my point instead of negating it), they say that the service sector has shrunk in the new methodology so if anything the numbers would've been even better if we stuck to old data.
Now lets look at the graphic again. What does it tell us: That indians arent buying scooters, thats nothing in isolation, that could easily mean that we're buying more cars or we're using the metro systems built all over the country. Quote the figures for car consumption or metro/monorail construction if you want to be fair. And if you scroll down to the bottom the largest indicators in absolute terms is petrol consumption and road building. Crude oil import is a 100billion dollar item, a 2 percentage swing in the growth rate would mean a 2billion dollar swing in actual terms. They've very cleverly used percentage growth numbers instead of actual numbers. I mean how easy would it be quote actual figures and compare the growth in dollar terms instead of being smart with the data. Now see we aren't saying that the growth has been better than UPA2 its been more or less the same.
If your point was that the GDP has got depressed because of demonetisation/GST then I would even agree with you. But you're questioning the actual numbers. I'm not even bringing in assets like Jan Dhan account, road construction, rural electrification, increase in renewable energy production, toilets, Smart city, startup program etc etc. because they're there for everyone to see.
TL;DR: Use stats only if you know how to interpret them.
The affordable housing projects are all locatable by google and they've been implemented in Pune at least, which is where I live.
http://smartcities.gov.in/content/innerpage/list-of-projects.php
My startup has claimed benefits from the startup india schemes and have been given financial grants by the Mh Govt (which is a BJP govt)
https://www.startupindia.gov.in/content/sih/en/government-schemes.html
All these things are easily verifiable. I'll just give the justification for other stuff as well, just in case someone else feels the need to come after me and because I've got nothing better to do.
Jan Dhan Accounts: https://www.firstpost.com/business/...or-success-of-other-products-too-6636101.html
Rural Electification:
https://www.financialexpress.com/ec...successes-this-year-says-this-report/1380269/
LPG connections
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...sed-by-89-households/articleshow/66930092.cms
Rural Roads:
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/rural-road-building-picked-up-speed-under-nda-1555258597435.html
Toilets:
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/under-nda-more-toilets-less-open-defecation-1552842931107.html
Renewable energy:
https://mercomindia.com/solar-installations-3-gw-25-gw-4-years-pm-modi/
A massive amount of work has been done, and a massive amount of work still needs to be done before India can call itself developed. I don't necessarily think Congress won't be able to do this, but if they try and do stupid shit like NYAY then the progress will be much slower than what it could.
Having said all this, I understand why most people dislike the Modi govt. but the reasons aren't because he hasn't been able to deliver economical growth its more to do with his brand of politics. Just say that you don't like them because of nutters like Sadhvi Pragya and I'll be in wholehearted agreement with you.
Has he got a new team advising him ? or is someone from BJP/RSS sabotaging him ?
He seems to have lost the plot entirely.
I agree. I'm getting vibes that they're trying to undermine him, I don't know why though. The only viable alternatives for the PM position under BJP would be the baldie from UP and Amit himself.
Has he got a new team advising him ? or is someone from BJP/RSS sabotaging him ?
He seems to have lost the plot entirely.
Gadkari considers himself the RSS' choice and a consensus candidate if NDA needs outside support.
Where he gets such delusions I don't know, but he is close to a section of RSS leadership. OTOH, he has literally zero base outside his city.
http://www.forbesindia.com/article/special/whats-going-on-with-indias-automobile-sector/53527/1 Lowest sales in 8 years but Indians are buying more cars.
NO!
Thats just 2019 and you haven't given me metro rail growth and absolute numbers for growth, just a convenient half statistic that you think makes your point. Okay, this is going nowhhere, if you're claiming that the GDP numbers are inflated then the actual growth is like what? 3%? So would you agree that if we're having so slow growth there will be large scale social unrest and BJP will get voted out of power? Then the easiest solution is to wait for the poll results.
http://www.forbesindia.com/article/special/whats-going-on-with-indias-automobile-sector/53527/1 Lowest sales in 8 years but Indians are buying more cars.
All the news agencies questioning the veracity of exit polls now. Hope they don't go back to blaming the voting machines, if the exit polls are proved right. I know Kejriwal would be blaming the voting machines, if no one else
All hail Dear Leader.
I'll be surprised if NDA wins more than 300 seats.
All the news agencies questioning the veracity of exit polls now. Hope they don't go back to blaming the voting machines, if the exit polls are proved right. I know Kejriwal would be blaming the voting machines, if no one else
Where are you from mate in India?
Pune, Maharashtra
ThatsGreat
They would be esctatic with ,300
Hopefully BJP gets atleast 362 seats. With 2/3rd majority it can amend most of the constitution if not all of it.
Will they finally build the temple though?
Congrats to the RSS.
Just saying ki India today in their exit poll has shown them to be 339-365 Seats.