She looks like a little 12v battery full of ghee
India politics thread
- Thread starter Shiva87
- Start date
She looks like a little 12v battery full of ghee
It is totally untrue and old line to say because no one can form government in India with out Muslim voters.
just see voting analysis in UP election, BJP done well in areas where farmer protest happen also done good where Muslim voters are more. Even Muslim party AIMAI (or whatever their name) got less vote and NOTA.
So basically other party need to rethink about their strategy and seriously need to do work at ground level.
Just watch AAP party they do good work in Delhi and now they got Panjab as well. So basically do good work and you might able to compete him.
In past 15 years Modi work on his image, and lots of people see him as progressive leader. some one has to come up with same image and new idea.
And please don't call about assassination, its look so childish.
Yup. Seeing a lot of increased hatred after this movie was released. Won't be surprised if this leads to a riot.
India's The Birth Of A Nation moment
BJP is not losing power for at least another a decade or two. The country is just too radicalised. Even after the Farm Laws debacle they won the Farmer votes. All was forgiven for the greater good i.e Hindutva.
BJP seems to be immune to rising prices and inflation as well. Even the Covid mishandling didn't cause a dent. I genuinely don't see a way out.
Even if Congress had a different leader and got rid of the Gandhis nothing will change.
Hindutva is here to stay. Its too deeply embedded in the social fabric of this country.
Calling the next decade or two is too early. 2024 is pretty much decided though.
The country is headed towards a civil war, and you can hope that the people wake up after seeing the horrors of that. Eventually, once these policies start hurting the upper middle class, and the rich, which it will eventually, I hope that the tone will change - not just in general discussions, but also in news debates
2024 is not yet decided mate, Modi has to do lot more to win it.
Remember their will be post COVID effect and also there will be anti incumbency after 10 years in power, and generally people do root for change after 10 years.
If I am not wrong than Pandit Nehru and Indira Gandhi are only 2 PMs who remain more then 10 years in power.
So it will not easy for Modi as it sound or you think.
Its not premature at all. Modi is not getting defeated. There is currently no leader who can challenge him. Its wishful thinking that someone new will emerge in a few years and will be able to take on Modi.
There isn't going to be a bigger calamity than Covid for this government. Literally everyone lost a relative/friend/family member due to Modi's carelessness, yet he won emphatically.
The underprivileged classes are ready to sacrifice anything for Hindutva. The middle and upper classes are even more militant.
Sher pala hai toh kharcha uthana padega mindset.
Hopefully I can feck off far away from this country before it becomes any more extremist and bigoted.
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/tr...on-the-kashmir-files/articleshow/90220573.cms
Same prick did nothing to allow Parzania to be screened in Gujarat
Same prick did nothing to allow Parzania to be screened in Gujarat
I doubt many people have the stomach to sit unemployed for 10-15 more years just so that the government can trouble Muslims. The reason Modi has been winning is thanks to lack of opposition, not because of their work. Have a debate with anyone, and there final argument is, "I agree with what you've said, but who will you vote for?"
As is, Modi's fandom will die by 2029, he'll be 80ish as well. And I'm not sure how many rich people want to see the country represented by Yogi.
Exactly this. It's funny how some still don't understand this. I have friends/family in India who have similar feelings. They don't want to vote for the gandhi led Congress anymore. AAP is the only hope but jury is still out on them whether they can topple Modi in national elections.
If hindutva was the sole reason, BJP would have won in Bengal and Delhi as well. More questions have to be asked against Congress rather than just sympathizing with Rahul or Gandhi parivaar.
Don't think that's the case. Its just a convenient excuse to hide behind. Well, I'm not a bigot but if not Modi then who?
In 10 years it'll be if not Yogi then who?
Even if the a new leader emegers it'll take 6 months for the Godi Media to run a smear campaign and dismiss the guy as incompetent and unfit for leadership with a catchy nickname. And the same excuses pop up again. If not Modi/Yogi then who?
Congress is fecking worse than BJP. They are happy to kill a entire political organisation with years of rich history and plunge the country into fascism as long as they dont lose power.
I hope a new opposition emerges and Congress and th Gandhi family is dead and buried forever.
Modi has created wounds that won't heal for decades. It could become very ugly.
Hardly surprising.
The courts have previously ruled decades ago that mosques aren't essential to Islam. They've also used reversed logic is banning beef by saying it isn't essential in Islam to consume beef when the actual rationale should have been whether non-consumption of beef is essential to hinduism and whether that would apply to non-hindus aswell.
(
)100% have to agree. Modi will always revert to nationalism and the populist approach to win the majority of the Hindu vote, and he and the BJP will always win as long as the majority rides along with him. He doesn’t need the minority vote. It’s going to take a special leader from congress or AAP to oust the BJP and no one has emerged yet. But it’s okay, modi’s transformation from cold calculated politician to Yogi may finally change things!
Yeah these elections were the litmus test for me. How much more economic hardship can the government unleash? Everything is the most expensive its ever been. Its an open secret that petrol is going to skyrocket. Masses just don't care anymore.
Punjab as usual bucked the trend, but I’m very disappointed that farmers elsewhere didn’t punish the BJP for their long-standing and petty opposition to the farmers protest.
Smear campaign can run to only a degree. For RaGa, it was irreversible, and it's stupid of Cong to project him as the face as no matter what he does, how right he may have been about some things, people wont vote for him. It's been painfully obvious for quite a while.
On the flip side, smear campaigns haven't been successful against Kejriwal, and while he's not as great as people project him to be, media hasnt really been able to run a sustainable campaign against him.
I was having a conversation with my mom just yesterday, and she was asking about political inclinations of my friends (nearly everyone is anti-BJP) - and the question she asked was "who do they vote for" and that's a significant proportion of the Modi fan base. My parents won't vote for anyone except BJP in LS, but they are more than happy to vote for AAP in VS, which highlights the lack of options at national level.
Congress is much better than the BJP when in power. The issue is they are horrible at setting the narrative
The reactions are exactly as expected. See the plight of Kashmiri pandits of 1990 and take revenge on your neighbour in 2022 just because they share the same religion.\
Edit: On a sidenote, why the feck are people taking 5 yr olds to a movie like Kashmir files?
Any chance of Amita Bachan standing for a political party? That's the only way i can see BJP being defeated.
He is too old for anything.
BJP cannot be defeated, at national level. The entire country will need to go into financial depression with industries and jobs completely getting wiped out, for that to happen.
Amount of marketing and funding this movie is getting is depressing.
BJP will never lose as long as the Gandhi family stays in Congress.
BJP didn't win UP just due to Hindutva. Scroll is as liberal and anti BJP as any publication and they captured the UP election better than any other news media.
https://scroll.in/article/1019221/f...y-failed-to-dislodge-the-bjp-in-uttar-pradesh
Modi is relying on welfarism to tackle economic downturn for the poor. That will work with the old but with aspirational young who want more than bare minimum. So if economy doesn't pick up then eventually BJP will be out, especially if there is even a resemblance of proper opposition at national level then.
It is the middle class who should be revolting now given they are getting nothing. Let's see if that happens or not. Unlikely IMO.
Well you can think whatever it is, but truth is you can't win election only on base of Hindutva.
They can. The BJP will get around 40% of poplar vote again which will be enough for 300 plus seats.
From my experience living in central India and being in touch with the poor, the middle class and rich I feel
Around 20% of the population seem to be completely into the 'Hindu khatre me hai' thing. This ranges from most Muslims are bad and they will eventually take over, or Congress only favors Muslims (minority appeasement), or believing that the Delhi riots were anti hindu riots started by Muslims and TMC committed a Hindu genocide in Bengal.post elections.
10% of the population are right wingers who aren't your typical.Muslim hating guys but believe Modi is genuinely doing a good job. They completely fail to see the disasters such as a 4-hour notice pockdown, the migrant crisis that followed it, the deaths on the streets due to covid or the mass graves by rivers. The fail to see the mess the economy is in or the Chinese incursion at our border. They feel Modi has done brilliantly to tackle Covid, is doing a great job with the economy and is a very well respected and powerful PM who foreign leaders look upto.
And the remaining 10% are the if not Modi then who. Rahul.Gandhi's image is completely gone, so is the Congress' after the corruption allegations post UPA-2. They don't have enough political acumen to understand that at this time anyone would be better than Modi.
Throw in all the welfare schemes for the poor, and I feel that BJP can go on like this and remain in powert for another decade. Unless we see a grand opposition coilation with all of them agreeing not to field candidates against each other, there is no chance. The local parties are the last hope. BJP has zero presence south of karnataka. If the like of Shiv Sena (Maharashtra), TMC (Bengal), SP (UP), Congress (MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh), AAP (Delhi, Punjab) AIMIM (Telangana), Communists (Kerala), NC (Kashmir), etc come together and run uncontested elections (no major opposing candidate apart from BJP's) then there might be a chance. This is still a very small chance but seems like the last hope. If not now then I can't see any one apart from BJP being in power for another 20 years.
Yeah I'm subscribed to the Scroll.
Welfarism was a part of the equation, yes.
Mostly used to woo the underprivileged castes. But the UC Hindus voted for BJP en masse. There hardcore base of voters didn't erode even a little bit despite the hardships.
Also welfarism was mainly concentrated in UP. They won Uttrakhand, Manipur and Goa as well.
Economy will pick up eventually, the worse is behind us, some sectors will struggle yeah but its not going to be as bad as the covid lockdowns. If the covid shocks were unable to change the political landscape, I dont know what will.
BJP will keep winning unless the country becomes Venezuela. Even then hardcore Hindutva cultists will find reasons to vote for them.
This is never going to work though.
Too many cooks. Eventually such a huge collation will succumb due to internecine conflicts and inefficiency.
I suspect they will try to make it work. Given Akhilesh Yadav invited Mamta Banerjee to campaign for him.
That is where Amit Shah with suitcases full of cash comes into picture. They call it Chanakya neeti.
BJP has infinite money. We don't even know where all it is coming from.
The A and A are now the richest men in Asia. I am sure they don't mind giving back to the party that has helped them to this position.
Electoral bonds. Legalized way of bribing political parties.
The issue with this is the 40% vote base you're talking about feels more comfortable voting for BJP as they prefer one party rather than a coalition. Plus gives media the opportunity to run with the headline that all opposition leaders coming together to bring Modi down.
The issue with Congress has been that they haven't been able to nail BJP on one thing. Sure, BJP makes a lot of feck--ups, but while campaigning, focus on one thing rather than jumping from one point to another every 3 months.
If I were them, I'd say, stop caring about Rafale, even Covid and what now, and just focus on unemployment and inflation. These are the 2 things you can run a campaign on for next 5 years, and something voters will definitely remember unless Modi somehow manages to get the numbers down significantly.
The problem with this is basically Hindi belt is a massive guaranteed haul for BJP vs Congress, and a very good haul against regional parties when it is a Lok Sabha election.
UP minimum 60/80 seats, we know from 4 different elections now.
Bihar (with JDU) minimum 30/40 seats.
Jharkhand minimum 10/15 seats.
Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, HP, Uttarakhand, Haryana - straight fight vs Congress - minimum sweep of 75/85 seats.
Delhi - bare minimum 5/7.
Gujarat - guaranteed full sweep of 25 seats.
This gives it a floor of 195 seats to start from.
It should get at least 15 and upto 35 (/48) in Maharashtra against the 3 parties*, and at least 15 and upto 25(/40) in Bengal against TMC. Guaranteed sweep of NE for about 15 more seats. Adding to 195, we are already at 240 seats. Only 40 away from majority. Still we have Karnataka, Orissa, Telangana, Andhra, and Jammu (3 guaranteed seats) left, from these it can easily pick up a couple of dozen seats.
Only in Punjab, Kerala, and TN can we expect it will not do well.
And all these are minimums based on 2014/19. It sometimes struggles against regional parties and even Congress in state elections. But when Modi is directly on the ballot, there is no chance for anyone, and especially for Congress.
They dont try. Anyone's guess why it doesn't want to.
Unless there is some kind of catastrophic economic crisis, there is no chance Modi is losing in 2024.