Horse racing tips

I dipped out of the utd match to watch myself loosing 35 quid in the 1000 guineas only to return to the match and see us losing 1-0 (thus losing me another 50 quid). Not a great day but I'm sure Nearco bet a little more than me on Moonlight Cloud.
 
I did indeed. At the price range I tend to operate in losers, and more losers than winners, are inevitable. In any event the winner is bred to stay a lot further and is worth a bet for the Oaks at around 7/2 if that's still available.
 
The Punchestown Festival starts tomorrow and in the 5.30 I really like the look of Golden Silver at 11/2. The first four from the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham all re-oppose but this is my selections favourite track, he won the race last year and the favourite, Sizing Europe, ran poorly here last season after winning at the Festival.
 
Nearco said:
The Punchestown Festival starts tomorrow and in the 5.30 I really like the look of Golden Silver at 11/2. The first four from the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham all re-oppose but this is my selections favourite track, he won the race last year and the favourite, Sizing Europe, ran poorly here last season after winning at the Festival.
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Ahh Golden Silver, I quite fancy this one myself but Sizing Europe is one of my favorite horses so i may just watch this one.

I remember the first time I watched Golden Silver run, it broke my heart because I had a fortune on Forpaddytheplasterer
 
Racing at Chester today, beautiful little track. General points:

- very tight doesn't suit big galloping horses
- C&D winners do especially well
- low draw in sprints vital

1.45 Odds on fav in hcap Captain Bertie (4/6) - Lay.
2.20 Odds on O'Brien fav - Lay.
2.55 I think Nathaniel could make up into a very smart animal 13/8 (nap)
3.30 Lottery. Likely fav Sea Odyssey very badly drawn. Fahey's 7/20 with his 2YOs this year.
4.05 Beachfire will start fav but has too much weight for me. Thin Red Line C&D but question mark over going.
4.35 Probably go to unexposed sort Robert the Painter and Oneladyowner both fit the bill and both well drawn.
5.10 Fav ought to win - Nibani. Couple of outsiders for a punt Granny McPhee (CD) and Inspira (C2).
 
If anyone is interested in putting a flutter on the Kentucky Derby Saturday, I would look for a mudder. They are supposed to have thundershowers in Lexington. I've been fancying the Aidan O'Brien entry so far.
 
I can't see Master of Hounds being good enough for that race. He was some way below the best 2yos over here last year. Whereas Uncle Mo was one of the best American juveniles for ages. Won't have a bet in the race though as I'm not familiar with the form.

No bets at Chester although it will be interesting to see St Nicholas Abbey in the Ormonde. Hope he gets his mojo back. I was impressed with Wonder of Wonders on Wednesday and think she's worth a bet for the Oaks at around 8/1. Her pedigree is beyond immense and I think 1000 Guineas winner Blue Bunting won a poor renewal the other day and is way too short. The fancied animals in that race either didn't stay because the head wind made it harder towards the end of the race or didn't like the ground.

I think First Lieutenant could be a future Gold Cup winner. I loved the way he stormed up the hill in the Baring Bingham at the Festival and think he's worth a small wager in the 6.05 at Punchestown. Bit worried about the small field and shorter trip but he should be favourite nevertheless.
 
Changed my mind about that horse, Nearco, after doing a little more research. You're correct. Weather is going to make a lot of diff tomorrow.
 
Dick Turpin in the 3.45 at Newbury. His stablemate, Canford Cliffs, is odds-on but hasn't run for ages and my fancy has two decisions over him and has had a run this season. He also looks like he's improved from 3 to 4.
7/2 is a fair price.
 
Overdose. This Hungarian sprinter is a speed machine and with our 5f animals being a poor bunch I think he could win the Temple at Haydock today by a street. 3/1 is very fair.
 
Big weekend coming. I'm against the Queen's horse in the Derby. He's criminally short and I've gone with Pour Moi and Seville to get him beat. The former is trained by Europe's best trainer who seems to fancy him. The latter has a big chance of reversing form with the favourite over the Derby trip.
 
The Dante was a farce of a trial and I still can't help but feel Carlton House might be a doubtful stayer. Both the french horses for me, Vadamar particularly overpriced at 20/1. Fallon deserting Native Khan for Recital which is interesting.
 
That could be with future rides in mind as much as anything else. I can't have Recital at all. Not convinced about his resolution and his abilty to handle the track.
 
Yeah, I think it's more about Fallon positioning himself, can't stand the bloke he should have been banned for life. I notice that Magnier has not only got the Ballydoyle crew but Pour Moi as well. Not convinced about the French pair, Pour Moi took a lot of time to settle at St Cloud, excuses for Vadamar but his winning form is on soft. The Irish all look short of top-class. Carlton House may not even show up. I'm going for classic form - Native Khan 3rd in the Guineas just behind Dubawi Gold (who should have won the Irish 2000 but for (yet another) bum ride from Hughes). Ante post since I think Carlton House might not go.
 
Timeform rate them:

Carlton House 136p
Native Khan 134p
Seville 133p
Recital 133
Pour Moi 129p
 
:lol: Fallon in court over dumping Native Khan, they should award punitive damages and stop the cnut from riding anything at Epsom (including second fav in the Oaks).
 
I was on the second. Ballydoyle fecked the race up totally by having pacemakers they didn't use. The winner will never win another Group 1.
 
Frankie didn't exactly cover himself in glory, got boxed in and unbalanced the filly barging out. Murtaugh nicked it but the winner battled on well when it looked as if Wonder of Wonders would swallow her up.
 
A friend told me about a tip on pour moi, just won £345!
 
Yeah, very nice result. I only backed him because of the trainers views.

They all count though.
 
I'm far from convinced about the running of either of those classics. Run them again and I think you'd get different results (certainly the Oaks). The pointer would be that the 3YOs aren't great and will be caned by their elders later on (except maybe Frankel).
 
It was a slowly run affair today and I think Pour Moi could turn out like New Approach. i,e a good Derby winner who won despite the way the race was run. Being out the back in a paceless affair was not ideal.
 
Back in the late 70's a guy called Stewart Simpson wrote a book called Always Back Winners. In it he concentrated on punting Handicappers rather than the big races. I read it about ten years after it came out and it has formed the cornerstone of my approach to betting on handicaps ever since.

One of his key tenets was looking out for fast finishing winners, horses who would only lead inside the last furlong but who still managed to win by a length or more. He figured that these animals had a lot in hand and that the handicapper wouldn't raise their mark high enough to stop them winning again under similar conditions.

Obviously horses who qualify don't win every time but given that I'm concentrating on competitive events the prices I deal in (6/1+) means I don't need a great strike rate.

Acclamazing runs in the 3.15 at York today. He won a 6f handicap at Newmarket in April by almost three lengths and is worth a bet at around 8/1. Ideally it would have been better if he'd won that race by a bit less but he's still worth a punt today. I'm going each way as he's a hold up animal who found trouble in running in his last race (over 7f rather than 6 so he wasn't a bet then).
 
Watched that Nearco, I had a five on Forjatt, cam nowhere, seems there is a stewards enquiry for the places.

Got £10e/w on King Lizard in the 3.30 @ kenilworth and £2e/w on Dinkum Diamond in the 3.30 @ sandown.
 
Had a cracking start to the day with 3 winners and 3 places in my first 9 bets, was up £45. After a few stinkers I'm currently down about a fiver after 28 bets.

£5win Bartons Spy 4.00 @ Bath next bet.
 
Cheers, took 8/1 on that. up £60 now had Sea Moon @ York too.

still a few minor races to go, you winning Dec?
 
No bets today, unusual at Royal Ascot.

I fancy a few tomorrow though. Music Show and I'm a Dreamer are boh worth backing in the 3.05. This is a race where the first and second favs are seriously overrated animals and because they are always underpriced it's a race with a great betting shape.

In the Hunt Cup at 4.05 Eton Forever is around 16/1 and although his draw isn't great he's worth an each way bet. He looked a handicapper to follow in April before running in a conditions event next time out. Some bookies will do 5 places for this race.
 
Favourites coming in at Ascot unusually. You'd expect Schmoos and So You Think (too short to back) to continue that - the rest looks wide open.
 
Don't really get involved with 2yo's but hoping So You Think is something special. His pacemaker today is a decent animal and I may be tempted by the forecast.

If he does win nicely I expect he'll go for the Eclipse and Workforce might be a nice price for that.
 
Shumoos has to be taken on at the prices especially with his poor draw also in 3, was def bias yesterday in favour of those drawn high. The american runner looks the interesting one, looked impressive on debut.
 
The ground is actually a tad faster in the middle of the track according to the going stick. In the Hunt Cup if the pace horses aren't drawn stand side it wont be an advantage.
 
Awful after timing i know - but a good start for me :)

Strong Suit @ 10/1

2 Sajjhaa @ 7/2 Stake

3 Eton Forever @ 16/1

4 Bronze Prince @ 14/1

5 Gypsy Robin @ 7/1

6 Cape Dollar @ 14/1
 
Had an ew on Dever Dream in the next (305pm) at Ascot.
 
Backed Fame and Glory today at 5/2. It's not a great price but he will go a lot shorter in running during the race given how nicely he normally travels. For that reason I have more on him than normal and will lay a third of my stake off in running at 6/4 (hopefully)
 
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