So I guess that'd mean like, circa 370-390 Conservative seats.
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
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So I guess that'd mean like, circa 370-390 Conservative seats.
Yes, somebody from ICM was explaining this on the TV yesterday.
YouGov tend to include youth turnout in their predictions, whereas ICM tend to believe that younger people won't turn out as much. Youth turnout has been low in UK general elections for the last 40 years. If the other elections are anything to go by, the Tories should be home and dry. If however, the youngsters really do turn and vote for Corbyn as they've said they will, it could be a bit closer.
Some research company called Qriously has Labour winning by 3 points 
I really think that they will. more than that, i believe they will turn out in greater number than the overestimates.
I see this has been brought to our attention because Nate Silver's making the mistake of talking about UK elections again...Some research company called Qriously has Labour winning by 3 points
Some research company called Qriously has Labour winning by 3 points
Some silly United forum has a Labour majority with the Tory's getting less than 15% of the vote.
Could happen.
We'll see man. After the 2015 election, Brexit and Trump, we know that anything can happen in politics.
I will probably get laughed at for this but:
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
I doubt that they are as reliable as other polls, worth posting though i guess.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
I doubt that they are as reliable as other polls, worth posting though i guess.
Just doing some research in their previous polling and i have to admit it looks encouraging.
I checked their EU referendum numbers, they had Leave winning by 12. So the best you can say for that is that they were the same wrongness as most others but in the opposite direction.
It's the hope that kills you.
ANNOWNNCE CORBUN
Will be interesting to see if the anti-monarchy Corbyn changes the national anthem once he's in. I think this tune stands a good chance:
I was more interested in this.
"In 2014, Qriously won Advertising Age's award for the "worst name in ad-tech", after voting in a poll, where it beat Vungle, Nanigans, AdsWizz, and Burt."
"In 2014, Qriously won Advertising Age's award for the "worst name in ad-tech", after voting in a poll, where it beat Vungle, Nanigans, AdsWizz, and Burt."
That's an impressively bad list of names.
I honestly don't know where i stand on the monarchy, i don't see the royal family as a particularly bad thing, but i don't see them as particularly useful either.
I'm anti-monarchy in principle but it's not something I particularly care about right now. For the most part the current lot are okay, and they're basically glorified celebrities who do lots of public engagements.
I'm still immune.
It's walking to the polling station that it usually grabs me though. With a bit of luck it'll be pissing it down and I may survive with my pessimism intact.
Great CGP Grey Video on the Royal Family
Then a less great, but interesting, rebuttal.
And then... just, your own opinions.
I'd prefer to have a President. But if people want to keep the queen... meh
This is it, I don't really have a preference. I just think they are there and always have been, but if they were to go then i wouldn't lose much sleep over it. I am much more concerned with social inequality and the fallout from Brexit (i fecking hate that word)
The Garden of Earthly Delights triptych charts the 3 stages of the Corbyns on election day 2017.
If you lot change your anthem make it something cool like maybe a The Who number
Yeah, you are totally right.
Their existence or not just isn't an issue right now
But David Beckham would be a great President
it would probably be 'jerusalem' but it could be any song used to signal patriotism from the times when we were the biggest bastards on the planet.
Imagine him giving a christmas speech in his CK briefsDid i read somewhere on here that the SNP are more likely to get in to bed with the tories?
I am just thinking of scenarios. Lab - Green coalition is my favourite i think, but there could be a Labour - Green - SNP. There could be Tory - Lib dem, Labour -Lib Dem. Tory - SNP. Tory - Green. There could even be Labour - Green - SNP. I know Corbyn said that he is here to win but realistically a coalition is his best shot you would think.
Also, realistically if the snp holds the vast majority of their seats in Scotland it makes at least some sense for them to join Labour you would think.
I am just thinking of scenarios. Lab - Green coalition is my favourite i think, but there could be a Labour - Green - SNP. There could be Tory - Lib dem, Labour -Lib Dem. Tory - SNP. Tory - Green. There could even be Labour - Green - SNP. I know Corbyn said that he is here to win but realistically a coalition is his best shot you would think.
Also, realistically if the snp holds the vast majority of their seats in Scotland it makes at least some sense for them to join Labour you would think.
I don't understand why you'd have such strong feelings about the title of the leader of the country really.
Being a President wouldn't change anything to do with the PM's role.
Being a President wouldn't change anything to do with the PM's role.
Nah, the SNP would be committing political suicide if they formed a government with the Tories.
Fairly sure that Sturgeon said she wants to work with Corbyn to keep the Tories out.
Coalitions require hung parliaments anyway, can't see that this time.
Coalitions require hung parliaments anyway, can't see that this time.
I am looking at it like this:
based purely off of the 2015 GE, Labour seats won + SNP seats won = 314 total. The thing with that is though that the SNP are predicted to lose several of those seats....but the Lib Dems are almost certainly going to perform better than in 2015.
I am thinking that perhaps a labour - SNP - Lib dem coalition with Corbyn at the helm is an actual possibility.
Could you imagine PM May and deputy Sturgeon? They'd be an even more awkward couple than the Cameron-Clegg marriage.
Italian referendum - predicted a 60-40 and it was a 59-41)
South Korea election
Top candidate - poll showed 39.6% and he got 41.8%
2nd place - poll showed Ahn to get 21.2% and he got 21.4%
They were wrong on the 3rd place candidate by 6 points
Turkey referendum - Predicted yes to win but were wrong on the margin by 7 points.
Dutch election - Predicted PVV to win but were off by 7 seats in total seats won.
Brexit - Poll showed Leave to get 56% but Leave got 52%
South Korea election
Top candidate - poll showed 39.6% and he got 41.8%
2nd place - poll showed Ahn to get 21.2% and he got 21.4%
They were wrong on the 3rd place candidate by 6 points
Turkey referendum - Predicted yes to win but were wrong on the margin by 7 points.
Dutch election - Predicted PVV to win but were off by 7 seats in total seats won.
Brexit - Poll showed Leave to get 56% but Leave got 52%
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It is, but only if the Tories don't make a majority.
Which they almost certainly will.
so...that indicates that they are at worst ok then?
Please vote Conservatives so you can stop lazy w@nkers taking a cut of your hard earned money whilst they sit on a sofa all day getting fat and smoking a 100 a day.
Don't believe the NHS Labour hype either. They may pledge more money now, but what that really means is less money later, as interest payments spiral out of control. Think 20 years of stable NHS, than a 5 year high, followed up a 15 year crash. The same applies to all big spending pledges, it only comes back to bite.
Also, Labour think they will get more money from the rich which sounds great, but the rich are financially free and will just move away from tax and take their business with them. This means no tax, rather than some and plenty of lost jobs.
Voting Labour will just weaken the Brexit negotiation and we'll be on more years of uncertainty. Who would you rather negotiate with a women on a mission, or Corbyn too scared to even have a nuclear deterrent even though highly unlikely it would ever be needed. Corbyn will bend over and take it. May will make you say yes just to shut her up. Think how your girlfriends or wives break you down. Happy wife, happy life and all that.
There is really no intellectual reason to vote Labour. They don't balance the books, they don't even have a stable party let alone potential government. Their party has walked out on mass against Corbyn. Those closest don't trust him, so why should you?
Be wise, vote Conservatives, or lib dem if you must as a way of offset. Labour is a joke and should be treated as such.
There you go, the sensible opinion ahead of tomorrow
Don't believe the NHS Labour hype either. They may pledge more money now, but what that really means is less money later, as interest payments spiral out of control. Think 20 years of stable NHS, than a 5 year high, followed up a 15 year crash. The same applies to all big spending pledges, it only comes back to bite.
Also, Labour think they will get more money from the rich which sounds great, but the rich are financially free and will just move away from tax and take their business with them. This means no tax, rather than some and plenty of lost jobs.
Voting Labour will just weaken the Brexit negotiation and we'll be on more years of uncertainty. Who would you rather negotiate with a women on a mission, or Corbyn too scared to even have a nuclear deterrent even though highly unlikely it would ever be needed. Corbyn will bend over and take it. May will make you say yes just to shut her up. Think how your girlfriends or wives break you down. Happy wife, happy life and all that.
There is really no intellectual reason to vote Labour. They don't balance the books, they don't even have a stable party let alone potential government. Their party has walked out on mass against Corbyn. Those closest don't trust him, so why should you?
Be wise, vote Conservatives, or lib dem if you must as a way of offset. Labour is a joke and should be treated as such.
There you go, the sensible opinion ahead of tomorrow