That's an all too depressing read.
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
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It's a fascinating analysis of the polling. I'm trying not to get my hopes up based on how much the polling companies models are adjusting to raise the Tory vote share, but after seeing that, a hung parliament wouldn't totally shock me. Based on those raw numbers, we're around the margin of error.
Former Deputy Assistant Commissioner at the Met, Lord Paddock, said on LBC yesterday that he didn't think increased numbers would have altered the attacks. He was more concerned about any further cuts though, which even if there were any planned they'll now be quietly binned i imagine. And they'd already begun increasing the number of armed officers again IIRC.
More good poll analysis
https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-b...-5-steps-to-making-sense-of-the-latest-polls/
https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-b...-5-steps-to-making-sense-of-the-latest-polls/
Corbyn's bang on when he says we're going to have to look again at our relationship with Saudi Arabia. But that's a far more nuanced and therefore difficult narrative vs 'He opposed anti-terror legislation'. If we're thinking about what's more likely to cut through in the final few days of the campaign, there isn't really a contest.
Absolute Legends - The Bob Crow Brigade show support for Corbyn.
https://www.indy100.com/article/bri...remy-corbyn-vote-labour-election-2017-7771246
https://www.indy100.com/article/bri...remy-corbyn-vote-labour-election-2017-7771246
A hung Parliament & a free MP (or rebellion) vote on Brexit might be very interesting.
Won't be holding my breath like...
Won't be holding my breath like...
I would be happy with any result that calls bullshit on May's "mandate".
I'd be flabbergasted if it's a hung parliament. If I had to call it now I'd say Tory majority 50-70.
Same. Think I'll put a small tipple on it.
Why ?
Also I think I'm right in saying that the lack of armed officers isn't the problem, it's everyday policing and intelligence gathering thats the issue.
Edit - Also worth looking at this interview
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No, this is where i tell you that they answered on behalf of a prospective government, and were asked what they would seek as Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary. It is also quite possible for them to hinder and degrade a Trident renewal, while still classifying it one's manifesto as a deterrent.
But he has linked the attacks to Libya (the Tunisia beach massacre before that), not to mention the small matter of a migrant crisis. It is also the case the intelligence services have been talking to government about going back in for a few years at least.
Corbyn talks about instability and the dangers inherent to such, yet he doesn't go any further. An honest answer, would be that he seeks to bring about no tangible improvement directly.
She manages to say both 'We can't be half in half out of Europe' and that she will fight hard to be half in half out of Europe within 3 mins.
More internet monitoring is going to sort that out, innit?
He has linked these attacks to the instability caused by previous PMs who thought their crusades, unlike every previous one, would indeed "fix" the region.
To appropriate the logic of your favoured PM candidate, no intervention is better than bad intervention, and given recent history, almost every intervention in that region has gone wrong. Which was precisely the point you dodged with your comment- this is not a problem a British PM can fix, it is a Libyan problem worsened by British (and other) intervention.
But your last line is correct, and is an improvement over people with grand plans, that look at best stupid, at worst catastrophic in hindsight (and the same to anyone with foresight).
In light of events, demands of the party, take your pick.
We've got people here posting about the bobby on the beat, sight which was a bloody rarity even during the boom years of Labour. It's not even where the Met wants to have its people. Intelligence gathering is another matter, however, but one that neither of us knows the answer to. We still can't follow absolutely everybody on the watchlist.
There do need to be more armed officers away from our largest cities in my view, so as to bridge the gap in capability/response times. Parity it wont' be, however we can do better than at present.
Counter-extremism is the thorny one, yet possibly the most important as well. I've read suggestions by Muslims on this forum that government would shy away from (well except UKIP perhaps). On the one hand, a government might to deal with a rogue Imam/mosque; on other, such religious leaders represent the first line of defence.
What's he got to lose currently?
It's good politics. She wants to paint him soft on terrorism, he's got her with her pants down on that one. She let 20,000 police officers go in the last 7 years. Considering we've suffered from 2 terrorist attacks in 2 weeks, i'm be shouting it from the rooftops.
He's nothing to lose.
He's right, though. She was an atrocious Home Secretary and she's proving to be an even worse PM.
Exactly, it's exactly what he should be doing.
He does have something to lose though. If some polls are right and the gap is narrowing he could well get a result, even if he loses, that allows him to stay on. It isn't a zero-sum game for him any more.
Not sure this is a subject where Corbyn isn't incredibly vulnerable.
That's just clever media the Tories do it a lot. Over play the issue to keep it in the news cycle. She now has to respond
How is Corbyn vulnerable on this? May is the one who is incredibly vulnerable on the issue. Pressing her on it is a good move IMO.
He's on camera saying he's uncomfortable with the shoot to kill policy and boasting about opposing anti-terror legislation. On the basis that 90% of people aren't going to research the nuances of both these statements, it's rather obvious why he's vulnerable on this issue.
Besides the police numbers issue as an important point. But calling on her to resign 3 days away from polling day just looks silly. Why make something that could gain traction a joke by doing that?
If that is true, and Corbyn gets proper air time with those comments i.e. BBC, Sky then that could be a political masterstroke. He needs to go in heavy handed and show he would be tougher on security and put money in where it needs to go.
He could also say I'd rather delay spending on Trident and commit a large sum in the billions to police budget.
He could also say I'd rather delay spending on Trident and commit a large sum in the billions to police budget.
So you think that Libya was part of the same Bush/Blair in Iraq? No nuance or recognition of the Arab Spring taking place, just a Christian crusade huh? My last point, demonstrates the duplicity of your favoured runner in this race. A man, moreover, who would not intervene to prevent massacre so as to maintain his own supposed moral superiority. Do you imagine that Libya is existing in a vacuum? The West's sodding off (wrongly) after the intervention has only mean that others have done so, to our cost. Being non-interventionist in 2017 does alter that fact.
Not sure I should laugh given the reason he's saying this but...
Delaying Trident costs a lot more money.
Can't believe a potential PM would even consider being even slightly uncomfortable with a shoot to kill policy when Brazilian electricians still freely roam the streets of this country. And as for his views against indefinite detention without charge, well...
This seems dumb.
Look at his twitter, the last 10 posts are all about Police cuts.
They there was his speech yesterday that got no air time, but some said was his best speech over his career (I am pained to admit I haven't watched it).
Great politics.
She is the PM and was the home secretary for the past 7 years... It's beyond stupid of her to campaign on security in the light of recent events. Corbyn needed to come out with a statement like that because the media isn't doing much questioning of said campaign.
Took me a second. Ouch.
I'm now convinced it's the best thing Corbyn could have done.