I stuck a tenner on no overall majority at 8/1 today.
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
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Finally! The Mail have decided enough is enough and that May's performance today deserved some crit...
Oh.
Oh.
Largest currently happened in 1945, a 12% swing to labour when Attlee won. This would surpass it.
Yeah, I have been thinking that for the past week or two based on what I have seen from the Tories over the last few weeks.
This would require Theresa May to put her party before her own personal career. Which is pretty far fetched, the simpler and probably real explanation is that she's just shit. And the people are around her are also shit.
I might come if Corbyn wins
Don't get excited. She'll win by a huge huge margin
Come to uk to celebrate i mean
Pleasantly surprised by the level of criticism May has faced from media outlets today.
That was a swing from the previous election, I think Ibi meant overcome a poll deficit from a month or two out - in this case 20 points (Labour in 45 were ahead in polls for a couple of years). The answer to which is basically no.
So The Daily Mail paid people to pretend to be teenagers on Facebook. At last, a story their online commentators can really relate to.
I'd still be shocked if the Tories don't win but the momentum is definitely swinging - May's press conference which she was having to reiterate there were to be "no changes" or whatever it was she said showed how her to be incredibly flustered and frustrated at how things have been going. Now she's actually being forced to campaign, and people seem to be realising she isn't very good at it. She's a lacking in Prime Ministerial talent as anyone I've ever seen - for all his faults Cameron was an excellent salesman who never really faltered under pressure at all.
News outlets have rightfully highlighted her weakness/flip-flopping. One thing I'd like to see them nail her on is the hypocrisy of the whole 'strong and stable' mantra which was contradicted by the very calling of this election. If May's argument is that Corbyn is fundamentally dangerous as a potential leader of the country, then calling an election during the Brexit process and therefore giving him the opportunity to lead our exit from the EU was an incredibly stupid and risky move from her - one intended solely to boost her own hand heading into talks instead of accepting the majority she had and working within those constraints. If she wins, but barely extends the party majority at all, then she'll look rather silly for calling an election at all; it'll have been a good month or so of the period during which Article 50 has been triggered having been dedicated to a campaign that didn't change all that much at all.
News outlets have rightfully highlighted her weakness/flip-flopping. One thing I'd like to see them nail her on is the hypocrisy of the whole 'strong and stable' mantra which was contradicted by the very calling of this election. If May's argument is that Corbyn is fundamentally dangerous as a potential leader of the country, then calling an election during the Brexit process and therefore giving him the opportunity to lead our exit from the EU was an incredibly stupid and risky move from her - one intended solely to boost her own hand heading into talks instead of accepting the majority she had and working within those constraints. If she wins, but barely extends the party majority at all, then she'll look rather silly for calling an election at all; it'll have been a good month or so of the period during which Article 50 has been triggered having been dedicated to a campaign that didn't change all that much at all.
Still expect the Tories to win. But for this just shows how dreadful May is.
It's strange isn't it. She is seen as the safe pair of hands ffs. So few politicians of any real substance. Give me Ken Clarke any day over her.
The monentum is defo shifting, but Corbyn's big rallies semm mainly in his heartlands, eg Leeds, Hull etc...Is he actually focusing on swing seats which would make more sense?
If you are going to repeatedly misconstrue my posts for the purpose of making baseless attacks, don't expect a response to the comments you make.
Do you accept that such concerns over sovereignty derive from Corbyn's own declared positions? Pretty recently too, i might add.
You fail to mention British troops on the ground in Nigeria, for the purpose of anti-terror ops, and similarly the support we offer to our allies in the Baltic. Of a more direct nature, are the missions we've undertaken in Iraq against IS forces. We also know that Corbyn is highly reluctant to use drones in an offensive capacity; hell, it was a struggle for him to admit that he'd take out al-Baghdadi, let alone British fighters for Islamic State. Most if not all of these operations would come to an end.I'm not thrilled about our involvement in the Yemeni conflict either, yet with much of the West offering military support we're talking about a gesture in practical terms.
Given the context of events at the time, i don't consider Libya to be analogous with Iraq in 2003. Had we but learnt more lessons from that earlier (tragic) mistake, something better than we see before us today might have been possible. And whether it is guilt on my part or an inherent inclination toward better intervention, i'd also have wanted to explore the practicalities of UK forces helping the Yazidis in particular. We'd have offered as many as possible sanctuary afterwards of course. In terms of mindset, myself and Corbyn are separated by quite some margin.
As matters stand, May hasn't done done much either way to alter what existed previously. We are rightly more hesitant than at the beginning of the 2000s. yet i wouldn't want to see us go to Corbyn's extreme.
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In this scenario, you'd have to wonder how long she'd last as PM. If she gains 10-15 seats, that looks like a failure considering the landscape when the election was called (and the U-turn). It would almost amount to a public rejection of her bid for a "strong hand" to enter negotiations.
Oh my god what an absolute car crash. This woman will not be prime minister! She simply can't after that performance.
People in York will wipe the floor with her. Shame I am away for that weekend and won't be able to tune in.
All hail Comrade Jeremy, dictator in waiting of the British isles!!
Her goose would be cooked if she only gained that many, it'll have been an emperor's new clothes moment.
The narrative is fascinating. The strong and stable leader who's going to be going up all the rest of Europe in negotiations, who's afraid to have a leadership debate and flip-flops in 24hrs in the face of public outcry. I wonder how far this can go?
Losing to Jeremy Corbyn is like losing the PL to Liverpool. It's unthinkable. But if she does do it, it'll be hilarious (the complete opposite of the scousers winning the league).
Aye, her party will quite clearly see that she's not very good at all if she can barely etch out a majority against Corbyn. If, and it's a big if, Labour get in a leader post-Corbyn who's genuinely very good and becomes well-liked by the country as a whole, May will be toast. Especially in the wake of Brexit - if it goes terribly, the government of the time will be out, and even if it goes fairly well, I suspect a lot of people will still be disappointed when they don't see any material, noticeable improvement to their lives, and they'll blame the government anyway.
Quite honestly though, May being a shite speaker is nothing new. I remember on the night of the 2015 election she was on BBC/ITV and her determination to avoid answering anything was bizarre, bordering on fascinating. The major EU leaders must be pissing themselves laughing right now at the prospect of facing up to someone who seems scared of conflict.
To be fair, it would marry well with the narrative in British politics since Brexit. An unnecessary referendum that went against their intention followed by an unnecessary GE that went against their intention. A full circle of idiocy.
I'm interested to see how the small Tory to Labour swing affects voting in Scotland - presuming Labour appear stronger again, we may see more unionist voters sticking with Labour, which I'd argue benefits the SNP overall.
Corbyn assures worried Tories the day after his shock victory by offering them another vote...in 2022.
Subsamples in polls have shown the gap closed to both being at around 20%, but those are tiny samples so big margin of error.
I'd rejoice but who knows which Tory then assumes the throne. And I'm not convinced it won't be a landslide Tory win anyway.
If the result is a minor Tory gain, I wonder if Corbyn goes at all. He should irregardless, but he'll see that as a victory.
Labour now 10 points ahead in Wales according to Yougov, which is a reversal of a 10 point Tory lead just a month ago.
Well to be fair this was yesterdays front page.
I'm very surprised they used the phrase dementia tax.
Labour were mostly around 15-18% anyway, so aye, unless the SNP are nearing 50% again, that might be a little off. Still though, I could see a small swing Labour's way up here. Dugdale wasn't brilliant last night and Sturgeon/Davidson dominated the debate, but I'd also argue Dugdale managed to come out better overall than the other two - Davidson especially, who had an awful start. She certainly didn't do herself any damage and in some areas people may stick with Labour.
Aye, personally I'd say with how weak is any Labour leader who loses this should go - they're only looking good currently because of how awful their polling was for a while. Still a long way to go if they hope to win.
Nevertheless, think Corbyn should also get some praise - his manifesto, while probably not well-costed at all, seems to have gone down fairly well and is being perceived by many as a breath of fresh air in contrast with May's particularly gloomy approach. He's campaigning quite effectively right now.
That's Mail on Sunday though, different (pro-Remain) editor. Still Tory, but less ridiculous.Well to be fair this was yesterdays front page.
I'm very surprised they used the phrase dementia tax.
the Mail on Sunday were remoaners? Never knew that.
Well, there is that too!
The thing is, she and the Tories have had the inside track regarding Brexit so far so should have some idea what is to come from Brussels during the negotiations. And if, as some predict, it is likely to be a car crash for the UK, then would the Tories want to be the party held to account?
Politically, though her career as PM would be over, wouldn't it make sense for them, as a party, to pass the responsibility to Labour, so they would be held accountable for the inevitable fallout of a potentially bad Brexit for the UK (hypothetically assuming that's what actually happens of course!). The Tories could then ride to the rescue, get a massive majority, and probably govern for years.
I highly doubt that the actual powers that be in the Conservative party care too much about her long term career, more of the long term interests of their own party. She was never elected by the public anyway.
I just fail to understand why they called a snap election when they already had a (albeit slim) working majority in the house of commons. I highly doubt the EU leaders care how big her majority is.
I get the feeling that the Tories are playing the long game. And the more I see from May and her campaign, the more it makes me think that maybe, just maybe, this is the case.
She really bolloxed this question up
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNews/status/866718865178320896/video/1
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNews/status/866718865178320896/video/1
Surely a conspiracy too far though, no? Very convoluted. A simpler answer is she's arrogant and inept.
Ah, Corbyn should retire in glory. Crossed 50% in the caf poll.
Not really a conspiracy theory. Just a feeling that the Tories are not really trying too hard to win based purely on what I see.
I did also agree with the previous poster that she may also just be a bit shit too!
Keep calm and poll voting intentionWere people polling in the middle of WW2?
fecking nerds.
irony
Last nights attack will almost certainly hand the election to the Tories.
Yeah, he's running an excellent campaign so far.