...and the 23rd goes in with 3 mins left. 
Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020
- Thread starter Levo
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looked good up until the last 15 minutes. Imploding a little. Needs to stop or he will skip out of the 5 quickly..
fingers crossed!
gonna be tight
Unless Justin Thomas eagles the 18th which is unlikely we have got this
Fancy the DC Defenders to easily beat the spread (-8) against LA this sunday in the XFL (1.95). DC comfortably won their opening 2 games, LA lost their opening 2. LA replaced the D coordinator and if not for some lucky big plays last week, and poor offence from Dallas, it wouldn't have been close.
DC on the other hand are fairly consistent and Cardale Jones is playing well. Even on the Road, i cant see them as just over a TD favourite. No spreadsheets from me, but i'm on this one based on what i've seen so far.
got the other 3 spreads in an acca, but of course the one I was confident of is now massively failing.. 20-0 down with an unanswered 28 points needed to get to the spread.
I didn’t want that £400 anyway. Fecking betting.
Birdie would feck it, dead heat
Had a winner with Roma, Wolfsburg, PSG, Atletico Madrid, Sporting, Braga, FC Porto, Malaga, Gent, AEK Athens and Boca Juniors who have just gone 3-0 up with 5 minutes left @34.20
Ajax, Rangers and APOEL fecked up my others. Also needed some bookings in the United game for my BetBuilders. But a good week nonetheless.
Ajax, Rangers and APOEL fecked up my others. Also needed some bookings in the United game for my BetBuilders. But a good week nonetheless.
Wilster 2-0 FT, unders won. +1 lost. +1 was really good annoyingly, were the better team for a large part of the game, draw was probably fair overall but couldn't take their chances and conceded on the counter twice. Probably due to fatigue from the Copa game midweek, which was a worry.
Game Choice Reasoning Outcome Bayern - Paderborn Muller to score @2.03 Paderborn is really a very fragile team. The odds for Lewa to score are veryvery low, so... Vilafranquense - Farense Farense to win @2.10 LigaPro is a very extensive and leveled league, but Farense needs a result to get out of the recent inconsistent patch of results because they need points to make sure they will be promoted, which is their season goal. Aves - Vitória SC Vitória HT @2.20 Aves is the weakest team on the PT Premier League, while Vitória still dreams about reaching top4, so my guess is that they will have a strong start in order to try and solve the game ASAP. CSKA - Rapperswil Over 4.5 @2.35 (small punt) These russian team friendlies either finish with little or lots of goals. No midterm Brann - Aalesun Over 3.5 @1.88 When these teams meet either at competitions or friendlies, goals usually happen. Lillestrom - Bodo/Glimt DC Lillestrom @1.95 It's a friendly, so... Valencia - Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi @2.20 I think Maccabi has a very good chance here. Valencia has been very inconsistent this season and Maccabi is sitting at a playoff qualify spot, but they can't afford to loose much more points because from top4 to top8 is quite easy to suddenly drop positions. Fundão - Elétrico Fundão @2.20 Fundão is actually a very competent team, but due to their good perfomances on the last couple of seasons they lost some good players to bigger clubs, but I think they can recover. They are facing an equally fragile opponent and they had played well on their last three games.
Well, not that bad. My picks had a decent 50% rate. Again a bit of luck that the game I had put the larger stake (Farense game) went well, which provided a 7.34€
Made some good bucks on this great tip(111,50€). Unfortunatelly, didnt got the odd at @2.4 like you, but 2.23 was still above par. Keep those tips coming
| Game | Choice | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt - Union Berlin | Frankfurt @1.89 | I think this is a decent value if you bare in mind the home results by Frankfurt. |
| Gil Vicente - Benfica | BTTS @2.02 Over 2,5 @1.81 | Benfica rarely doesnt concede a goal and both teams usually have games with lot of goals. Over 3,5 would be nice for the brave and it might happen |
| Liverpool - West Ham | Liverpool -2 @2.05 | Can't see why not. |
| Manama Club - Al Ahed | NDB Al Ahed @1.99 | This is a quite balanced match and I think this is a good value odd. |
| Sertanense - Fátima | Draw @3.22 | A very possible outcome. Fátima has more draws away from home than any other result. Campeonato Nacional has a lot of draws and both these teams draw a lot. |
| Horsens - Aarhus | Aarhus @2.11 | Going to be tough, but I see Aarhus having a fair chance to win this away match. They have a stronger team, despite Horsens having some decent result at home. |
| Djokovic - Jaziri | Dojokovic -7.5 @1.94 | Seems good value |
| Carballes Baena - Munar | Carballes Baena @2.25 | Seems good value if you bare in mind Baena is quite competent on clay. |
| Norrie - Mannarino | NOrrie @2.05 | Norrie usually gives Mannarino (or any other top player) a good run for the money. Won't be surprised if he can pull a result here. |
| OFK Beogrado - Mladost | Mladost +10 @1.84 | Baffling odd here. Must be something happening that I'm missing. |
Nice one, glad it came in and a few got on. He didn't play great but at the moment his so-so is good enough for top 5. It more or less came down to the last putt of the entire tournament - if Thomas had holed a 25 footer on the last it would have been a dead heat. Fine margins.
Djokovic won 6-1 6-2, which means my sweet largest stake of the day @1.94 on AH-7.5 gave me a very good profit. Let's hope the profit does not gets diluted in my other picks of the day
Ended up not betting on OFK Beogrado - Mladost match. Euro basket qualifiers took many players senior and u21 players from the teams.
Made some cash on Liverpool in-play. You just know those jammy motherfeckers are gonna win somehow!
Yep. As soon as it went 2-1 to West Ham with nearly a whole half left, had to put money on both Liverpool win, and DNB Pool. Odds were good for that. in the league, if i see liverpool not winning especially around half time, thats where odds work in favour.
Had some on Yangon -0.5 from 2-1. Think it's fixed for 3-1, Lao fix almost every game, will give away a pen or concede a ridiculous goal. Just a small as hate guessing fixes but they're usually reliable.
Huge odds drop now at 75, exact same as against Hougang and they rugby tackled a guy twice to give a pen, expecting something similar again.
Huge odds drop now at 75, exact same as against Hougang and they rugby tackled a guy twice to give a pen, expecting something similar again.
Funny, Lao conceded on purpose for 3-1, then their foreign got a pen. Locals were trying to take it off him so they could miss on purpose but he took it and scored 92nd. They then tried to concede for the final 2 minutes but wasn't enough time left. Foreigner probably just cost fixers £200k or something, wouldn't fancy being him.
Followed you and couldnt stop laughing, even if it cost a few quid, comedy gold!
Great tip again though, unlucky. Hope you only took a small hit.
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On Liverpool Montevideo -1.25 and -1.5 tomorrow v Llaneros @1.7+ and 1.9+
Was on Liverpool in reverse leg, should have been 5-0 up at HT and played score 2nd half. Llaneros went bust, lost almost all their players and relegated to 2nd division. South Americans love playing the Agg score which is the worry but if it was first leg, it would be 4/5-0 most of the time.
Was on Liverpool in reverse leg, should have been 5-0 up at HT and played score 2nd half. Llaneros went bust, lost almost all their players and relegated to 2nd division. South Americans love playing the Agg score which is the worry but if it was first leg, it would be 4/5-0 most of the time.
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Had a look and cant it priced on bet365, skybet or betfair. But it does have every other game and the liverpool reserve team games.. Odd.
Should be on most sites now, not sure why 365 were so late in pricing. I staked on Asian sites via broker.
Ah, it's just come on now, although very limited markets. Will keep an eye and see if they bring on any more.
Thanks as always.
@Pagh Wraith What do you make fair prices in Chelsea Bayern tonight?
No real opinion on it but thought Chelsea +0.75 seemed big considering Pool would be -0.25 away to Chelsea (and probably closer to 0s if it was a 1st leg away). Pool overrated by the public but market pretty spot on with them generally. Even considering that, not sure Bayern are better than them at all.
No real opinion on it but thought Chelsea +0.75 seemed big considering Pool would be -0.25 away to Chelsea (and probably closer to 0s if it was a 1st leg away). Pool overrated by the public but market pretty spot on with them generally. Even considering that, not sure Bayern are better than them at all.
Messi and Lewandowski to both have two shots or more on target 2/1
Agreed, that seems really big. While Chelsea are massively underrated by the public (see any related thread on here for example), markets have them well ahead of the pack in 3rd. As you said, they'd be 0.25 vs Liverpool and 0.5 vs City at home and Bayern are worse than them imho (certainly than City). I quite confidentally staked Leipzig to win the league at 4s during the winter break when they were four points ahead of Bayern as I don't think there is that much between the two sides at all. Also, Chelsea's bad home form isn't really bad at all, certainly not performance-wise.
Bayern are even shorter than they were at Spurs in October. They've changed managers and improved slightly and still find it hard to justify such a big handicap.
Game Choice Reasoning Result Frankfurt - Union Berlin Frankfurt @1.89 I think this is a decent value if you bare in mind the home results by Frankfurt. Gil Vicente - Benfica BTTS @2.02 Over 2,5 @1.81 Benfica rarely doesnt concede a goal and both teams usually have games with lot of goals. Over 3,5 would be nice for the brave and it might happen Liverpool - West Ham Liverpool -2 @2.05 Can't see why not. Manama Club - Al Ahed NDB Al Ahed @1.99 This is a quite balanced match and I think this is a good value odd. Sertanense - Fátima Draw @3.22 A very possible outcome. Fátima has more draws away from home than any other result. Campeonato Nacional has a lot of draws and both these teams draw a lot. Horsens - Aarhus Aarhus @2.11 Going to be tough, but I see Aarhus having a fair chance to win this away match. They have a stronger team, despite Horsens having some decent result at home. Djokovic - Jaziri Dojokovic -7.5 @1.94 Seems good value Carballes Baena - Munar Carballes Baena @2.25 Seems good value if you bare in mind Baena is quite competent on clay. Norrie - Mannarino NOrrie @2.05 Norrie usually gives Mannarino (or any other top player) a good run for the money. Won't be surprised if he can pull a result here. OFK Beogrado - Mladost Mladost +10 @1.84 Baffling odd here. Must be something happening that I'm missing.
Started so well and then went downhill. Only got a 40% hit rate, and it could had been worse if I went ahead with the Mladost bet, but was lucky to check that Basketball NT's are playing simultaneously as some league game. Regret not taking large stake in Aarhus game, but hindsight is tricky. An overall -5,40€
I usually only need near 50% up hit rate to get profit, so I hope to recover soon.
Only saw the score, how was the game?
What chance have the rest of us foot with results like that?!
Todays fun watch. PSM v Shan. Shan notorious fixers. Over 3.5 heavily backed at the end of FH despite the game being terrible. PSM moved from -1 at 2.2 to -1.75 at HT also, looks 3-1, 4-0 FT. Not staking anything as theres no value considering how high lines are. It's worth watching though for interest as it should be blatant goals if Shan are fixing, always a good laugh.
| Game | Choice | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Braga - Rangers | DC Ranges @2.05 (small punt) | After what I saw in Ibrox, I can see Rangers causing troubles to Braga. But beware, because Braga is a very strong team at their home ground. |
| Lyon - Juventus | BTTS @2.00 | Seems reasonable looking at both teams result. Juve form away from home has been far from good and Lyon is a very strong offensive force. |
| Real Madrid - Man City | Real to win @2.94 (small punt) | The odd is very good and Madrid usually man-up in this kind of matches. |
| New York - San Carlos | New York HT/FT @2.25 | I really have the gut on this, unless they put the foot off the gas. |
| Oslo - Ham Kam | Over 3.5 @2.10 | Nordic friendlies are usually more a hit than a miss on goals |
| Flekkeroy - Jerv Lunds - Trelleborgs | Jerv & Trelleborgs to win @2.44 (small punt) | both are better teams, but it's a friendly |
| Liverpool M - Llaneros | Liverpool -1.5 | following Spiersey tip |
| Struff - Basilasvhili | Basilashvili +3.5 @1,87(small punt) | The georgian is in poor shape, but he has a good history against Struff. |
| Djokovic - Kohlschreiber | Over 18 @1,77 (small punt) | Kohlschreiber can be a pain in the butt if he's concentrated. He can make any player a good run for the money if he starts well. |
| Barrios - Dellien | Barrios @2.68 (small punt) | Home crowd can motivate this fella. |
| Kwon - Lajovic | Kown @2.00 (small punt) | The young tennis player motivation might give him an edge in this game (or not) |
3-1 with the last kick of the game. Wasn't quite as blatant as yesterdays but the keeping for the Shan goal was hilarious!
The Shan goal was legit, just a horrendous keeping error
The past couple of years, Shan (along with the other teams that fix) have all been really poor even when trying but they've all improved. In the past they'd fix for overs and - handicap to win but now they've got decent foreigners up top they just try to score when they attack and try to concede when defending. Pretty sure they'll fix every group game, they fixed late on at home to Kaya so I'd imagine they'll concede late the next 4 group games too.Bayern deserved the win, -0.5 played out a good bet in the end. Maybe -0.75 was fair, 3rd goal was just a case of Chelsea getting caught short chasing a goal really. Quite interesting how highly the market rated Bayern, pricing for them against Pool or City in later rounds would be interesting.
A nice start from today's picks: Olso - Ham Kam over 3.5 was done after 70'. Let's hope it won't go downhill from here.
Yeah, Bayern really impressed last night and fully deserved the win. Chelsea's line-up was kind of strange with no pace on the counter (summed up by Mount's hopeless attempt at running in behind Davies). Also thought Kanté was a big miss as they were big gaps between central midfield and defense for Bayern (particularly Müller) to exploit in the first half already.
I think Bayern was much more aggressive while defending which made a huge difference in the outcome.
I had 500 on Bayern last night at 2/1 minus a goal . I couldn't see anything but Bayern humping Chelsea . It didn't last long the wife just bought a new iPhone
Bayern just pressed high and had a high defensive line as Chelsea had no pace to hurt them at all in behind. Was really odd lineup from Lampard considering Bayern struggle against the counter and we offered nothing. Really did make it easy for Bayern.
The problem is: does Chelsea could had used some pacey players to stretch the field or would that just leave those pacey players a bit unsupported while launching counters, breaking the team balance while on transition?
I think the idea of Lampard was to avoid getting caught on transition trying to make a more patient build up, but it backfired because there was no depth on the final third.
Wow, good win!
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