Fredrick's, noble and rice to be booked for me, probably be the friendliest game ever now. Aslong as one gets booked it's profit.
Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020
- Thread starter Levo
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Going for a double tonight
Man City vs West Ham - City (-1)
Tottenham vs Leipzig - Under 3,5
40€ @ 1,83
also have City (-1) and Spurs under 2,5 goals
10€ @ 2,67
Man City vs West Ham - City (-1)
Tottenham vs Leipzig - Under 3,5
40€ @ 1,83
also have City (-1) and Spurs under 2,5 goals
10€ @ 2,67
Made it to recover with profit.
2 wins feels Good after a bad day yesterday.
Some NHL picks for tonight:
Dallas vs Arizona - Dallas money line @ 1,95
Edmonton vs Boston - Under 6,5 goals @ 1,44
Dallas have won 10 of the last 11 meeting go the coyotes. The road hasn’t been kind to the Coyotes overall either as they have only one victory in their last nine road games.
The Bruins are allowing just 1.6 during this stretch and the Oilers are allowing 2.4. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 head to head meetings
Game got abandoned at 3-0 for some reason, 365 voided all bets, other sites should too. Weird game, Metz looked better from in play stats.
@4.1
Brugge vs United - Double Chance United
Getafe vs Ajax - Double Chance Ajax
Olympiakos vs Arsenal - Double Chance Arsenal
Cluj vs Sevilla - Double Chance Sevilla
Brugge vs United - Double Chance United
Getafe vs Ajax - Double Chance Ajax
Olympiakos vs Arsenal - Double Chance Arsenal
Cluj vs Sevilla - Double Chance Sevilla
Sure you haven't clicked 12 instead of X2 ?
Nice one.
| Game | Choice | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Cluj - Sevilla | DC Cluj @1.98 | Sevilha away form has been astonishing in the last games, loosing with weaker teams. |
| Brugges - Man Utd | Over 2.5 @2.14 | Brugges defense is not very solid and they were always shaky against decent opposition. |
| Frankfurt - Leipzig | Over 3.5 @ 2.30 (small punt) | Frankfurt and Salzburg games always end up with tons of goals, but as this is a cup game, is a bit more risky. |
| Shakthar - Benfica | Benfia to win @3.22 (small punt) | Benfica is not playing good footy, but Shakthar has been poor this season aswel. Chance is there. |
| Sporting - Basaksehir | Under 2.25 @2.09 | Sporting games at home has been pretty much poor in terms of goals. |
| Bayer - Porto | DC Porto @1.93 (small punt) | Porto has also been poor, but they are a battling team. |
| Roma - Gent | DC Gent @2.90 (small punt) | Roma is in a terrible result streak, Gent might grab the chance here. |
| Olympiakos - Arsenal | Over 2.5 @1.80 | Seems a fair odd if you bare in mind both teams score and suffer goals in almost every matches. |
| Rangers - Braga | BTTS @2.02 | Good chance to happen. |
| Wolves - Espanyol | Wolves HT @2.16 | Gut bet. Wolves are goal thirsty, Espanyol is having a few bumps lately, so... |
| Wolfsburg - Malmo | Under 2.5 @1.84 | Malmo is very decent defensively and Wolfsburg seems to have some difficulties finding the goal. |
I'm on Rory, top 5 in the WGC. He likes the course and his consistency at the moment is insane. 2.4 sees big considering results read t5, t3, 4, t3, t26, t9, t2, 1, t19, t6, t4.
Nicely done. I was also on the bruins, under 5. Also had a small amount on the game to go to OT. Woke up with enough extra for another beer with lunch
Fancy the DC Defenders to easily beat the spread (-8) against LA this sunday in the XFL (1.95). DC comfortably won their opening 2 games, LA lost their opening 2. LA replaced the D coordinator and if not for some lucky big plays last week, and poor offence from Dallas, it wouldn't have been close.
DC on the other hand are fairly consistent and Cardale Jones is playing well. Even on the Road, i cant see them as just over a TD favourite. No spreadsheets from me, but i'm on this one based on what i've seen so far.
DC on the other hand are fairly consistent and Cardale Jones is playing well. Even on the Road, i cant see them as just over a TD favourite. No spreadsheets from me, but i'm on this one based on what i've seen so far.
Seems to have dropped a lot in an hour.
You have me worried about Sevilla.
Probably no need to worry, because Cluj is a mediocre team overall, but Sevilla latest games haven't been brilliant.
| 16.02.20 | LL | Sevilla | Espanyol | 2 : 2 | E |
| 09.02.20 | LL | Celta Vigo | Sevilla | 2 : 1 | D |
| 02.02.20 | LL | Sevilla | Alaves | 1 : 1 | E |
| 30.01.20 | CDR | Mirandes | Sevilla | 3 : 1 | D |
Two winners tonight with William Hill:
1. Over 1 goal in each of the 17:55 Europa League games @13.00
2. 1-2 goals, 3-4 cards, 7-11 corners in both Club Brugge/Man Utd and FC Copenhagen/Celtic games @91.00
They do some great multi-match combos. Getafe scored a second in the 93rd minute to seal the deal in the first bet. Great when these come off.
1. Over 1 goal in each of the 17:55 Europa League games @13.00
2. 1-2 goals, 3-4 cards, 7-11 corners in both Club Brugge/Man Utd and FC Copenhagen/Celtic games @91.00
They do some great multi-match combos. Getafe scored a second in the 93rd minute to seal the deal in the first bet. Great when these come off.
Thanks, always nice to wake up with some overnight winsNicely done. I was also on the bruins, under 5. Also had a small amount on the game to go to OT. Woke up with enough extra for another beer with lunch
My NHL picks for tonight (double)
Washington vs Montreal - Washington money line @ 1,80
St.Louis Blues vs Arizona - Under 6,5 goals @ 1,33
25€ @ 2,40
Montreal have lost five games in a row and are starting to fall even further down the conference standings. The Capitals have lost two in a row and four of their last five, but they are still the superior team.
Montreal is 3W-7L in their last 10 meetings with the Capitals so I am going for the capitals to win at home tonight despite being pretty shaky recently. Even Capitals (-1) @ 2,52 looks interesting.
The blues and Arizona barely combine for six goals per game, and Arizona has an ugly 11-20-1 over/under away record. Think its gonna be a tight game and going for the under bet.
Washington vs Montreal - Washington money line @ 1,80
St.Louis Blues vs Arizona - Under 6,5 goals @ 1,33
25€ @ 2,40
Montreal have lost five games in a row and are starting to fall even further down the conference standings. The Capitals have lost two in a row and four of their last five, but they are still the superior team.
Montreal is 3W-7L in their last 10 meetings with the Capitals so I am going for the capitals to win at home tonight despite being pretty shaky recently. Even Capitals (-1) @ 2,52 looks interesting.
The blues and Arizona barely combine for six goals per game, and Arizona has an ugly 11-20-1 over/under away record. Think its gonna be a tight game and going for the under bet.
Good start
2 shots clear after the first day.. another fiver on this one!
Had a winner on the golf with Adam Scott last week at 28/1.
Didn't fancy anyone much this, so added dechambeau top 5 into an accumulator which it's promptly let down anyway.
Didn't fancy anyone much this, so added dechambeau top 5 into an accumulator which it's promptly let down anyway.
Me too, I only had a tiny stake against MVG
yeah, so far so good. annoyed I didn’t back him for first round leader at 4/1 when he started well but gone pretty big on top five so didn’t want to risk more
Had a £50 treble of Arsenal, Wolfsburg and Roma last night for £310 but cashed out for £220 after Lacazette scored. It came in but I'm ahead so I'll take it.
I've stuck the £20 on a number of games starting tonight through to Sunday which is unusual for me.
I've stuck the £20 on a number of games starting tonight through to Sunday which is unusual for me.
Game Choice Reasoning Outcome Cluj - Sevilla DC Cluj @1.98 Sevilha away form has been astonishing in the last games, loosing with weaker teams. Brugges - Man Utd Over 2.5 @2.14 Brugges defense is not very solid and they were always shaky against decent opposition. Frankfurt - Leipzig Over 3.5 @ 2.30 (small punt) Frankfurt and Salzburg games always end up with tons of goals, but as this is a cup game, is a bit more risky. Shakthar - Benfica Benfia to win @3.22 (small punt) Benfica is not playing good footy, but Shakthar has been poor this season aswel. Chance is there. Sporting - Basaksehir Under 2.25 @2.09 Sporting games at home has been pretty much poor in terms of goals. Bayer - Porto DC Porto @1.93 (small punt) Porto has also been poor, but they are a battling team. Roma - Gent DC Gent @2.90 (small punt) Roma is in a terrible result streak, Gent might grab the chance here. Olympiakos - Arsenal Over 2.5 @1.80 Seems a fair odd if you bare in mind both teams score and suffer goals in almost every matches. Rangers - Braga BTTS @2.02 Good chance to happen. Wolves - Espanyol Wolves HT @2.16 Gut bet. Wolves are goal thirsty, Espanyol is having a few bumps lately, so... Wolfsburg - Malmo Under 2.5 @1.84 Malmo is very decent defensively and Wolfsburg seems to have some difficulties finding the goal.
Well... not the best picks I've made. Lucky for me I had my biggest stake at Wolves match and manage just to close the day at -4.56€
| Game | Choice | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern - Paderborn | Muller to score @2.03 | Paderborn is really a very fragile team. The odds for Lewa to score are veryvery low, so... |
| Vilafranquense - Farense | Farense to win @2.10 | LigaPro is a very extensive and leveled league, but Farense needs a result to get out of the recent inconsistent patch of results because they need points to make sure they will be promoted, which is their season goal. |
| Aves - Vitória SC | Vitória HT @2.20 | Aves is the weakest team on the PT Premier League, while Vitória still dreams about reaching top4, so my guess is that they will have a strong start in order to try and solve the game ASAP. |
| CSKA - Rapperswil | Over 4.5 @2.35 (small punt) | These russian team friendlies either finish with little or lots of goals. No midterm |
| Brann - Aalesun | Over 3.5 @1.88 | When these teams meet either at competitions or friendlies, goals usually happen. |
| Lillestrom - Bodo/Glimt | DC Lillestrom @1.95 | It's a friendly, so... |
| Valencia - Maccabi Tel Aviv | Maccabi @2.20 | I think Maccabi has a very good chance here. Valencia has been very inconsistent this season and Maccabi is sitting at a playoff qualify spot, but they can't afford to loose much more points because from top4 to top8 is quite easy to suddenly drop positions. |
| Fundão - Elétrico | Fundão @2.20 | Fundão is actually a very competent team, but due to their good perfomances on the last couple of seasons they lost some good players to bigger clubs, but I think they can recover. They are facing an equally fragile opponent and they had played well on their last three games. |
On Aurora +1.25 v Nacional Potosi at the weekend @1.85.
Was on Vinto +1.5 v Potosi a couple weeks ago, Vinto played great, was a very good bet despite losing, were 2-1 up and got a red, conceded last kick to lose 4-2. Would have won/drawn at worst without the red. Vinto and Aurora are both from Cochabamba (2600m), Aurora are a little better, isn't much between them though. Shame can't get +1.5 again but +1.25 should be good.
Nacional Potosi had a massive game in Peru 2 days ago, won 2-0 away and lost on Pens, was a huge effort from them, should have some signs of fatigue at the weekend or may make rotations. Think Aurora can defend well and counter. Think it can be an even game.
Also on Always Ready +1 small. Would be bigger on this if Always didn't have Copa last night, put in a great performance, could be tired also. Wilster been poor recently, missing best player still but Serginho and Gilbert both back recently annoyingly. Always are very strong this year, think they can win if they have a strong side out, Wilster 1.8 win is probably fair.
Was on Vinto +1.5 v Potosi a couple weeks ago, Vinto played great, was a very good bet despite losing, were 2-1 up and got a red, conceded last kick to lose 4-2. Would have won/drawn at worst without the red. Vinto and Aurora are both from Cochabamba (2600m), Aurora are a little better, isn't much between them though. Shame can't get +1.5 again but +1.25 should be good.
Nacional Potosi had a massive game in Peru 2 days ago, won 2-0 away and lost on Pens, was a huge effort from them, should have some signs of fatigue at the weekend or may make rotations. Think Aurora can defend well and counter. Think it can be an even game.
Also on Always Ready +1 small. Would be bigger on this if Always didn't have Copa last night, put in a great performance, could be tired also. Wilster been poor recently, missing best player still but Serginho and Gilbert both back recently annoyingly. Always are very strong this year, think they can win if they have a strong side out, Wilster 1.8 win is probably fair.
with a lot of these bets is the value not the same in the match odds but with a better chance of increased account longevity?
What's the decent value-odds for a +1 Always? Can get about 2.2 for X2
Edit: Can get 1.58 for Aurora +1.5 - is that high enough to be value?
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Moplay bankrupt, hopefully no one in here has money in them as 99% sure you won't be able to withdraw anything. looks like they're withholding all funds.
Short answer, generally yes it'll be value.
Long answer, In theory if Asian handicap is value then Win + every market in favour of the team is value. However, there's a lot of bets where win isn't value and handicaps are. Vinto +2.5 last week is a good example. The most likely score is a 2 goal win for Strongest with a 1 goal win a likely outcome too. Vinto winning is probably a 25/1 shot with the altitude. If they were leading it would be an absolutely battering for the rest of the game and eventually they'd concede. In that scenario win isn't value at price whilst +2.5 is good value. Obviously this is a rare example but there are a few occasions this is the case but probably in 80% of cases win is good value too (but variance will be much higher and can have big losing spells). Theres games where I bet a +3 asian and I think the team can win and theres times when I bet a +1 and I think a win is unlikely but +1 is value still. Aurora tonight, most likely outcomes are a draw/1 goal win for Potosi. 2+ win would be a surprise but equally so would Aurora winning.
Tying in with + being value and win not being, is usually when there are specific circumstances with what a team needs. One of my favourite bets is opposing teams who need to win once prices go too far. (aggregate score, avoid relegation, promotion etc) Motivation can result in teams being 1.1 to win when they would usually be 1.9. This can result in the opponent being on a +2 asian. Once the team that needs to win has the lead then there is no motivation to win by 3 but realistically they are unlikely to lose the game. In this scenario theres no value in the team to win but +2 can be nice value.
Apologies was away all weekend so just seen now. I staked +1 asian at 1.8, prices look correct now so if you staked anything yesterday you're on value.
Cheers for the response. I definitely like the logic behind the last point you make and see how it can apply generally.
Tyson Fury’s win and Scotland, France & England all winning in the rugby this weekend netted a nice wee profit for myself
Looks like they have the lowest level of protection for customer funds. Ironically they weren't able to cough up on sponsorship deals with United & Watford.
More info here: https://www.latestbettingoffers.co.uk/articles/what-happened-to-moplay/
Aurora half win, probably fair result.
Always ready been great first half, very even game.
I've staked under 2.75 at HT @1.8. Mental goal line for 45, game is very open, midfields are non existent but the quality in final third isn't there for either side. Hasn't been much good chances at all. Think worse case scenario is 2-1 either side so would be a half loss. Game would have to change a lot for 4 goals 2nd half I think. Whoever takes the lead won't be so open at 1-0 so should change the game a bit. It's huge value. Fair line is probably 1.75 or 2.
Hopefully doesn't end 3-1 so all bets lose.
FC Porto 62% possession, 22 shots, 3 on target against bottom club Portimonense.
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