Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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UFC 247 - Jon Jones by dec @ 3.10

The line moved in the last couple days, I actually got it at 3.40, he should win this easily but he's become wiser and more cautious as he's getting older, and not as wild or aggressive back when he was coked up.
 
Hilal 9/1 and Sadd 25/1 to win Asian CL both worth interest bets.

Hilal should be faves, best balanced side with foreigns, very good locals and probably the best manager too. Theres good value in them with Evergrande being favourites too. Chinese clubs shouldn't be near faves (especially this year). Their locals are too poor of quality currently. Chinese clubs currently have no guarantee of a season either, and will most likely be closed doors if/when it does start. Will be a massive disadvantage in ACL, will hinder them all massively. 5/1 or so would be correct for me.

Sadd probably won't win, defence is a shambles but attack wise they're as good as anyone. Xavi might leave soon which would improve the defence a lot and give it a chance of winning. Them and Hilal have a shoot out last year, wasn't much between them at all over the 2 legs. Could see something similar again this year. Won't be a single team in the comp that will dispatch them easily over 2 legs. I'd have them around 15s or something.
 
mu4c_20le said:
UFC 247 - Jon Jones by dec @ 3.10

The line moved in the last couple days, I actually got it at 3.40, he should win this easily but he's become wiser and more cautious as he's getting older, and not as wild or aggressive back when he was coked up.
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Nice, helped by the useless judges though :lol:
 
Pagh Wraith said:
There markets are poorly priced in general. But it's not a get rich quickly scheme. As far as I know, only 365 trade them and while they're a bit more lenient with account restrictions than others, I'm limiting myself to 50€ stakes to protect mine. Think I'm on my third or fourth account and intend to keep it a while longer.
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What do you reckon to the Sheffield United vs. Bournemouth game?

Over 23.5 Shots is 2.10, may sound a bit much for these two teams but with the weather today it might be a tactic to 'shoot on sight' with the ball moving all over the place.
 
Any Bundesliga watchers? Leipzig +1.5 @ 1.7 seems a bit high, considering it's to equal teams who meet? Worth a punt? First game ended 1-1
 
Spiersey said:
Hilal 9/1 and Sadd 25/1 to win Asian CL both worth interest bets.

Hilal should be faves, best balanced side with foreigns, very good locals and probably the best manager too. Theres good value in them with Evergrande being favourites too. Chinese clubs shouldn't be near faves (especially this year). Their locals are too poor of quality currently. Chinese clubs currently have no guarantee of a season either, and will most likely be closed doors if/when it does start. Will be a massive disadvantage in ACL, will hinder them all massively. 5/1 or so would be correct for me.

Sadd probably won't win, defence is a shambles but attack wise they're as good as anyone. Xavi might leave soon which would improve the defence a lot and give it a chance of winning. Them and Hilal have a shoot out last year, wasn't much between them at all over the 2 legs. Could see something similar again this year. Won't be a single team in the comp that will dispatch them easily over 2 legs. I'd have them around 15s or something.
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Thanks, will try a couple small bets - 10/1 and 40/1 at Betvictor.
 
I’ve heard a few folk saying envoi Allen could go for the champion at Cheltenham at 5/1 NRNB worth a go
 
Spiersey said:
AFC Cup isn't my best tournament but Paro +1.5 @ 1.7+ worth a small tomorrow. Biggest home bias in the world for me. Play at 2500m altitude, on astro pitch and the travel and accomodation is awful for travelling sides. Bhutan sides are really really poor but at home the difference is remarkable. The national team can draw at home and lose 9-0 away.

Bengalaru called up 9 B team players for the game, coach has hinted that they are going to rotate. Chetri was going to be kept at home for the game to rest but wanted to play so he's travelled. Weirdly they've taken their foreigners with them (which implies they won't rotate) but calling up B players and managers comments suggest otherwise. I think they'll probably play a strong side, maybe 1 B team player. Thats why only a small. Would be worthy of a better stake if I was more confident in bigger rotations + Paro defence isn't great. Paro got a really good attacker, CG7 as hes known in Bhutan. Very very good for Bhutan, was decent enough when he played for Benga last year.

The reverse game will most likely end 6-0 or something in Benga go strong for it, think they won't win by loads tomorrow though.
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Reverse game priced, Benga -1.5 @1.75+ good for a med bet I think. As I said above, biggest home bias in the world for Bhutan sides, can't have the same line home and away. If Benga needed to they'd win 6-0. No Chetri for Benga (decent miss) but the foreigners should all play. Paro will be open and get cut apart I think, won't be able to park bus with them losing on Agg. Think 3-0 FT or something.
 
Spiersey said:
Reverse game priced, Benga -1.5 @1.75+ good for a med bet I think. As I said above, biggest home bias in the world for Bhutan sides, can't have the same line home and away. If Benga needed to they'd win 6-0. No Chetri for Benga (decent miss) but the foreigners should all play. Paro will be open and get cut apart I think, won't be able to park bus with them losing on Agg. Think 3-0 FT or something.
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Opinion on HT/FT @ 1.83? Will probably follow you once it's priced on Bet365.
 
Havak said:
Opinion on HT/FT @ 1.83? Will probably follow you once it's priced on Bet365.
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Yeah good value too. Prefer - as fitness isn't good for Paro so can collapse 2nd half. Would imagine Benga are winning at HT though. Always a minefield trying to decide whether to take HTFT or handicaps.
 
Spiersey said:
Reverse game priced, Benga -1.5 @1.75+ good for a med bet I think. As I said above, biggest home bias in the world for Bhutan sides, can't have the same line home and away. If Benga needed to they'd win 6-0. No Chetri for Benga (decent miss) but the foreigners should all play. Paro will be open and get cut apart I think, won't be able to park bus with them losing on Agg. Think 3-0 FT or something.
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BTTS no good at 1.9+ also. CG7 the only threat for Paro, no real quality bar him and they created very little at home, should create very little tomorrow. Benga strong defensively as well. Should be 1.5ish.
 
Small on Dortmund u19s +0.5 1.75+ in 40 mins. I had Derby the value at prices last night but prices flipped, 0 asian is fair, 2.4 win for either. No Reyna for Dortmund but Derby missing a couple of best players too. Think it's a 50/50 game, should be very open, neither side can defend at all. Will probably be high scoring, no ET either, straight to pens if its a draw. Think either side can by 2, value in current prices for me.
 
Spiersey said:
Small on Dortmund u19s +0.5 1.75+ in 40 mins. I had Derby the value at prices last night but prices flipped, 0 asian is fair, 2.4 win for either. No Reyna for Dortmund but Derby missing a couple of best players too. Think it's a 50/50 game, should be very open, neither side can defend at all. Will probably be high scoring, no ET either, straight to pens if its a draw. Think either side can by 2, value in current prices for me.
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Called game completely spot on but Dortmund unfortunately the loser. Should have scored 2 first half easily, I genuinely hate Moukoko. Didn't push on at all once they made it 2-1, conceded a scrappy corner and big deflection, draw would have been fair.
 
Spiersey said:
Yeah good value too. Prefer - as fitness isn't good for Paro so can collapse 2nd half. Would imagine Benga are winning at HT though. Always a minefield trying to decide whether to take HTFT or handicaps.
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Amen, I always prefer the handicap but HT/FT is much easier to back early pre match so I always end up eventually backing both ha.
 
Leeds vs Bristol City.. Saturday. Bristol +1.5 Asian @1.775.

Bristol have managed to beat this handicap in 14/16 away games this season, whilst Leeds have only won at home by more than 1 goal in 3/15 matches. Add Leeds current form to the mix and the fact Bristol are only 6 points behind them having won 4 of their last 5 matches (3 away) I feel this line offers some value. Bristol just to score is also the same price. Aside from drawing blanks at Sheffield Wed and Luton they've scored in 14/16 away matches this season.

I've backed both lines.
 
West Ham to get relegated @ 2.37 (might be higher elsewhere)

Strongly debating this, looking at their fixture list and current form. Haven't won a League Game since New Years Day: 2D 3L in last five games.

Remaining fixtures:

Man City (A)
Liverpool (A)
Southampton (H)
Arsenal (A)
Wolves (H)
Spurs (A)
Chelsea (H)
Newcastle (A)
Burnley (H)
Norwich (A)
Watford (H)
Man Utd (A)
Aston Villa (H)

Are they going to get enough points? Probably need to average at least a point per game to stay up from now IMO. Current form is literally joint worst in the League.
 
Spiersey said:
Reverse game priced, Benga -1.5 @1.75+ good for a med bet I think. As I said above, biggest home bias in the world for Bhutan sides, can't have the same line home and away. If Benga needed to they'd win 6-0. No Chetri for Benga (decent miss) but the foreigners should all play. Paro will be open and get cut apart I think, won't be able to park bus with them losing on Agg. Think 3-0 FT or something.
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4-1 after 30, will be won now. Annoyingly wound up with split stake on cleanie so break even on game.
 
Spiersey said:
AFC Cup isn't my best tournament but Paro +1.5 @ 1.7+ worth a small tomorrow. Biggest home bias in the world for me. Play at 2500m altitude, on astro pitch and the travel and accomodation is awful for travelling sides. Bhutan sides are really really poor but at home the difference is remarkable. The national team can draw at home and lose 9-0 away.

Bengalaru called up 9 B team players for the game, coach has hinted that they are going to rotate. Chetri was going to be kept at home for the game to rest but wanted to play so he's travelled. Weirdly they've taken their foreigners with them (which implies they won't rotate) but calling up B players and managers comments suggest otherwise. I think they'll probably play a strong side, maybe 1 B team player. Thats why only a small. Would be worthy of a better stake if I was more confident in bigger rotations + Paro defence isn't great. Paro got a really good attacker, CG7 as hes known in Bhutan. Very very good for Bhutan, was decent enough when he played for Benga last year.

The reverse game will most likely end 6-0 or something in Benga go strong for it, think they won't win by loads tomorrow though.
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1-0 defeat at home in close game and 9-1 loss at home. Really is no other home bias like it in football. Even La Paz doesn't come close.
 
Gone for a treble tonight:
Luton v Sheffield Wed over 2.5 goals
AZ v NAC Breda under 3.5 goals
Vitesse v Ajax under 3.5 goals

Luton only kept a clean sheet once and failed to score in 3 out of 15 matches at home this season in the league. I think SW will score a goal or 2 despite missing Fletcher. Always a big risk betting on Championship matches though

AZ and Ajax will probably score but considering that both are cup games, there's a chance that it will both be cagey, tactical games without that many goals... :nervous:
 
Havak said:
West Ham to get relegated @ 2.37 (might be higher elsewhere)

Strongly debating this, looking at their fixture list and current form. Haven't won a League Game since New Years Day: 2D 3L in last five games.

Remaining fixtures:

Man City (A)
Liverpool (A)
Southampton (H)
Arsenal (A)
Wolves (H)
Spurs (A)
Chelsea (H)
Newcastle (A)
Burnley (H)
Norwich (A)
Watford (H)
Man Utd (A)
Aston Villa (H)

Are they going to get enough points? Probably need to average at least a point per game to stay up from now IMO. Current form is literally joint worst in the League.
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It's about correctly priced imo, but not a bad shout for them going down. I reckon they'll get 10-12 pts in the remainder. Same as Villa, so they meet at West Ham in the very last game. Could get quite dramatic.

Worth keeping an eye on Palace too @ 8.5. Will have a hard time if they only get 1-3 pts in the next 4 against bottom sides, as their remaining fixtures are very crap. Currently in bad form. LLLDDDDW in the league.
 
Millwall Fulham could end up an ugly affair, Millwall given a clearly offside goal. Fulham furious with it. Might be worth keeping an eye on cards.
 
Good to see the same faces here and some in good form of late.

Got three for Premier League darts for Thursday night.

Rob Cross vs Nathan Aspinall - highest checkout over 118.5 @1.83
Gerwyn Price vs Michael Smith - highest checkout over 118.5 @1.83

Both of the above same reasoning, both games potential to go deep and usual line would be 120.5 which it is for both other regular games on the card. (so not the Fallon Sherrock game for which the line is the same as these two) Obviously we're dealing with the elite of the game here and goes without saying all capable of big finishes and big difference in a 118.5 line compared to a 120.5 as 120 and under only needs one treble and a single to leave a double finish whereas over needs either 2 trebles to leave a double or a treble and a single to leave a bull finish. These (and the third below) are all with 3-6-5 while most other places have the line at the usual 120.5


Glen Durrant vs Fallon Sherrock - final leg winning colour GREEN @2.62

Durrant is a huge favourite for this game and he leaves double 16 at almost any opportunity, he would marry it if he could and it happens to be green.
 
Bullhitter said:
Good to see the same faces here and some in good form of late.

Got three for Premier League darts for Thursday night.

Rob Cross vs Nathan Aspinall - highest checkout over 118.5 @1.83
Gerwyn Price vs Michael Smith - highest checkout over 118.5 @1.83

Both of the above same reasoning, both games potential to go deep and usual line would be 120.5 which it is for both other regular games on the card. (so not the Fallon Sherrock game for which the line is the same as these two) Obviously we're dealing with the elite of the game here and goes without saying all capable of big finishes and big difference in a 118.5 line compared to a 120.5 as 120 and under only needs one treble and a single to leave a double finish whereas over needs either 2 trebles to leave a double or a treble and a single to leave a bull finish. These (and the third below) are all with 3-6-5 while most other places have the line at the usual 120.5


Glen Durrant vs Fallon Sherrock - final leg winning colour GREEN @2.62

Durrant is a huge favourite for this game and he leaves double 16 at almost any opportunity, he would marry it if he could and it happens to be green.
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Nice, sounds interesting, cheers.
 
Bullhitter said:
Good to see the same faces here and some in good form of late.

Got three for Premier League darts for Thursday night.

Rob Cross vs Nathan Aspinall - highest checkout over 118.5 @1.83
Gerwyn Price vs Michael Smith - highest checkout over 118.5 @1.83

Both of the above same reasoning, both games potential to go deep and usual line would be 120.5 which it is for both other regular games on the card. (so not the Fallon Sherrock game for which the line is the same as these two) Obviously we're dealing with the elite of the game here and goes without saying all capable of big finishes and big difference in a 118.5 line compared to a 120.5 as 120 and under only needs one treble and a single to leave a double finish whereas over needs either 2 trebles to leave a double or a treble and a single to leave a bull finish. These (and the third below) are all with 3-6-5 while most other places have the line at the usual 120.5


Glen Durrant vs Fallon Sherrock - final leg winning colour GREEN @2.62

Durrant is a huge favourite for this game and he leaves double 16 at almost any opportunity, he would marry it if he could and it happens to be green.
Click to expand...

Thanks, will follow these. Checkouts are 1,85 on Unibet. There is also Checkout Colour - Legs @2,71 on Marathon, would that be slightly better value?
 
Bullhitter said:
Good to see the same faces here and some in good form of late.

Got three for Premier League darts for Thursday night.

Rob Cross vs Nathan Aspinall - highest checkout over 118.5 @1.83
Gerwyn Price vs Michael Smith - highest checkout over 118.5 @1.83

Both of the above same reasoning, both games potential to go deep and usual line would be 120.5 which it is for both other regular games on the card. (so not the Fallon Sherrock game for which the line is the same as these two) Obviously we're dealing with the elite of the game here and goes without saying all capable of big finishes and big difference in a 118.5 line compared to a 120.5 as 120 and under only needs one treble and a single to leave a double finish whereas over needs either 2 trebles to leave a double or a treble and a single to leave a bull finish. These (and the third below) are all with 3-6-5 while most other places have the line at the usual 120.5


Glen Durrant vs Fallon Sherrock - final leg winning colour GREEN @2.62

Durrant is a huge favourite for this game and he leaves double 16 at almost any opportunity, he would marry it if he could and it happens to be green.
Click to expand...

Durrant at 1.3 appeals despite short odds. Would be huge on if it was pre world championships. She played out her skin double wise at the World champs, can't live with Durrant's scoring and not convinced she can hit doubles like she did at the World's. Not massively clued up on darts though but seems a big reaction to World Champs in terms of pricing.
 
Spiersey said:
Durrant at 1.3 appeals despite short odds. Would be huge on if it was pre world championships. She played out her skin double wise at the World champs, can't live with Durrant's scoring and not convinced she can hit doubles like she did at the World's. Not massively clued up on darts though but seems a big reaction to World Champs in terms of pricing.
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I actually got 1.38 last Friday morning. I was against her on the handicaps in both her World's wins and still convinced I was on the right side of both.

Just about the crowd and occasion for Durrant but playing well and getting the win last week should help. Sherrock did come through a UK Open qualifier last week but she got a couple of byes and I don't have any numbers in terms of how she played. Had a poor showing at qualifying school though where she won 4 of 8 matches but only beat averages of 65, 81, 89 and 80 while losing to 81, 90, 86 and 91 and she herself only averaged over 90 in 2 of 8 games and that is over short formats (she played an average of 7.5 legs per match)
 
John_Dooh said:
Thanks, will follow these. Checkouts are 1,85 on Unibet. There is also Checkout Colour - Legs @2,71 on Marathon, would that be slightly better value?
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Yes I would say so. Durrant will leave D16 99% of the time when he has the option. I don't know Sherrock's tendencies as well but she likes D16 too (as most do to be fair). And he is rated to win probably 7-4 or 7-3 so contributing more anyway.
 
Milan vs Juventus
- Juventus @ 2.20

Think it Will be a close game but Milan havent won against Juve since 2016. Ronaldo, Dybala starting.
 
Bullhitter said:
Yes I would say so. Durrant will leave D16 99% of the time when he has the option. I don't know Sherrock's tendencies as well but she likes D16 too (as most do to be fair). And he is rated to win probably 7-4 or 7-3 so contributing more anyway.
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Thanks for the tips, great profit! :drool:

If only that f..... Durrant knew how to hit a double it would've been a great night:mad:
 
Bullhitter said:
Yes I would say so. Durrant will leave D16 99% of the time when he has the option. I don't know Sherrock's tendencies as well but she likes D16 too (as most do to be fair). And he is rated to win probably 7-4 or 7-3 so contributing more anyway.
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Ended on a double 16.. what a shout!

well done mate!
 
Bullhitter said:
I actually got 1.38 last Friday morning. I was against her on the handicaps in both her World's wins and still convinced I was on the right side of both.

Just about the crowd and occasion for Durrant but playing well and getting the win last week should help. Sherrock did come through a UK Open qualifier last week but she got a couple of byes and I don't have any numbers in terms of how she played. Had a poor showing at qualifying school though where she won 4 of 8 matches but only beat averages of 65, 81, 89 and 80 while losing to 81, 90, 86 and 91 and she herself only averaged over 90 in 2 of 8 games and that is over short formats (she played an average of 7.5 legs per match)
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She’s unbeatable with a crowd, opponent just crumbles on doubles when booed. Dire from Durrant.
 
Todays biathlon, 7,5 km sprint for women:

Hermann a good shout for lead after 1st, 4 / 1. Best track time on the mixed relay, 5 hits gives her a great chance.
Anais Bescond 6 / 1 for top 6, really enjoys it in Antholz and has a great record there. 1700m altitude makes it a difficult place for many, Bescond hasn't finished outside the top 6 here last 5 years.
Both at 365.
 
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