Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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Danny Roberts said:
Where do you follow Bhutanese football?!
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:lol: It's just stuff I've picked up over last couple years. I watch all the national team games as I bet on the World Cup qualifiers. All the league games are streamed on Mycujoo but I don't watch too much as not many are available for betting.

Also, their stadium is probably my favourite in the world, it's an old temple converted into a stand. On my bucket list, planning on going this year or next.
Spiersey said:
AFC Cup isn't my best tournament but Paro +1.5 @ 1.7+ worth a small tomorrow. Biggest home bias in the world for me. Play at 2500m altitude, on astro pitch and the travel and accomodation is awful for travelling sides. Bhutan sides are really really poor but at home the difference is remarkable. The national team can draw at home and lose 9-0 away.

Bengalaru called up 9 B team players for the game, coach has hinted that they are going to rotate. Chetri was going to be kept at home for the game to rest but wanted to play so he's travelled. Weirdly they've taken their foreigners with them (which implies they won't rotate) but calling up B players and managers comments suggest otherwise. I think they'll probably play a strong side, maybe 1 B team player. Thats why only a small. Would be worthy of a better stake if I was more confident in bigger rotations + Paro defence isn't great. Paro got a really good attacker, CG7 as hes known in Bhutan. Very very good for Bhutan, was decent enough when he played for Benga last year.

The reverse game will most likely end 6-0 or something in Benga go strong for it, think they won't win by loads tomorrow though.
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1-0 FT, went pretty much as expected. Think Bangla can be value in return game, -1.5 or something would be very nice but they're most likely open 1.1 for win.
 
Raj70 said:
Just looked at the fixtures, FA Cup game is midweek (Tuesday), followed by home league game on Saturday against Bournemouth then AM the following Wednesday. I think Liverpool will put out a strong side v Chelsea.
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Yeah could be right, site I checked actually had fixtures wrong. Be surprised if Pool are full strength really still though, Klopp clearly has zero interest in the competition. Might change if the league is 100% won though.
 
Changlimithang Stadium @Spiersey ? Just had a look, quite a sight! Still I prefer that one in Portugal still, the one with the cliff face I think it is.

That Bhutanese one reminds me of the Tomb Raider games :lol:
 
Fecking Fluminense last night. Absolutely dominated and the other side had one shot on target and scored. Infuriating :lol:
 
Any thoughts on the POTY? Don't reckon Henderson will get it, think 10/1 on VVD is the most attractive atm?
 
John_Dooh said:
Any thoughts on the POTY? Don't reckon Henderson will get it, think 10/1 on VVD is the most attractive atm?
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I'd be leaning towards Mane or TAA, although I think the latter is more of a shoe-in for YPOTY. I think the general opinion is that VVD hasn't been as good as last season, whether that's true or not I'm not really sure, but that could have an effect on voting. Not sure if Mane at 4/1 is 'value' but if he comes back from injury and keeps playing the important games, I think he'll have the biggest impact on the remainder of Liverpool's season. KDB is a possibility as well considering there's a high chance he smashes 30+ combined goals/assists from CM this season and could lead City to a few trophies - but I think they'd have to be looking like big favourites for winning the Champion's League for him to pick up votes, even though that technically shouldn't effect this vote, it will do.

Edit: Also, just noticed that Mo Salah can be got at 16/1 which is probably well worth a punt. He's capable of going on a run and already has 18 goals & 9 assists which is slightly better than Mane already.
 
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John_Dooh said:
Any thoughts on the POTY? Don't reckon Henderson will get it, think 10/1 on VVD is the most attractive atm?
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Salah looks the value to me. It'll be him or Mane from Pool I think. VVD hasn't been as good this season as previous and the media hasn't hyped him quite as much. Henderson will get media hype but he won't keep scoring goals so it'll die down. TAA will get YPOTY.
 
Havak said:
I'd be leaning towards Mane or TAA, although I think the latter is more of a shoe-in for YPOTY. I think the general opinion is that VVD hasn't been as good as last season, whether that's true or not I'm not really sure, but that could have an effect on voting. Not sure if Mane at 4/1 is 'value' but if he comes back from injury and keeps playing the important games, I think he'll have the biggest impact on the remainder of Liverpool's season. KDB is a possibility as well considering there's a high chance he smashes 30+ combined goals/assists from CM this season and could lead City to a few trophies - but I think they'd have to be looking like big favourites for winning the Champion's League for him to pick up votes, even though that technically shouldn't effect this vote, it will do.

Edit: Also, just noticed that Mo Salah can be got at 16/1 which is probably well worth a punt. He's capable of going on a run and already has 18 goals & 9 assists which is slightly better than Mane already.
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Spiersey said:
Salah looks the value to me. It'll be him or Mane from Pool I think. VVD hasn't been as good this season as previous and the media hasn't hyped him quite as much. Henderson will get media hype but he won't keep scoring goals so it'll die down. TAA will get YPOTY.
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Didn't notice Salah was that high, should be the better value then, agreed. Also as you say TAA should get YPOTY, but personally I don't see De Bruyne winning unless they go all the way in the CL and find some real form. Disappointing season for them if not, and then a Liverpool player should get it by default unless something weird happens...

Edit; Salah 20/1 on Betfair Exchange, had a small punt on him.
 
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On Al Sadd HTFT and -1.5 @ 1.7-8 for either, tomorrow in Qatar Cup. If they go strong it can be 5/6-0 or so. Big gulf between top tier and 2nd and Sadd are the best team in the country by a distance (despite league table). They rotate heavily for the other cup but should be a strong side tomorrow. Will be very one sided but Sadd have a weird ability where they either draw/lose or win 5-0.
 
Havak said:
I'd be leaning towards Mane or TAA, although I think the latter is more of a shoe-in for YPOTY. I think the general opinion is that VVD hasn't been as good as last season, whether that's true or not I'm not really sure, but that could have an effect on voting. Not sure if Mane at 4/1 is 'value' but if he comes back from injury and keeps playing the important games, I think he'll have the biggest impact on the remainder of Liverpool's season. KDB is a possibility as well considering there's a high chance he smashes 30+ combined goals/assists from CM this season and could lead City to a few trophies - but I think they'd have to be looking like big favourites for winning the Champion's League for him to pick up votes, even though that technically shouldn't effect this vote, it will do.

Edit: Also, just noticed that Mo Salah can be got at 16/1 which is probably well worth a punt. He's capable of going on a run and already has 18 goals & 9 assists which is slightly better than Mane already.
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TAA is 100% nailed on for Young but I think he's value for the double too.
 
17 and a half for Real Madrid in the UCL seems worth a punt? 21 games undefeated atm, see them as even or slight favourites vs City myself...
 
Spiersey said:
Chelsea v Pool will be priced up in the next couple of days for the FA Cup. Can be decent value at opening prices. Fair price for a Prem game would be around 6/5 - 13/10 for Pool.

99% sure Pool will put out a team similar to the one against Everton. The game is just before the 2nd leg of the Atletico game, that'll be their focus. Chelsea's 2nd leg won't be until the week after. Chelsea 0 would be a big bet if prices and then teams are as I'd expect.
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Staked Chelsea now at 2.75 and draw no bet 2.2.
 
Spiersey said:
On Al Sadd HTFT and -1.5 @ 1.7-8 for either, tomorrow in Qatar Cup. If they go strong it can be 5/6-0 or so. Big gulf between top tier and 2nd and Sadd are the best team in the country by a distance (despite league table). They rotate heavily for the other cup but should be a strong side tomorrow. Will be very one sided but Sadd have a weird ability where they either draw/lose or win 5-0.
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Didn't get on on time but it's 2-1 after 30 minutes. Only managed to get a over 4 goal market (when it was 1-0, which was pretty good value given what you said at 2.5/1
 
muller said:
Didn't get on on time but it's 2-1 after 30 minutes. Only managed to get a over 4 goal market (when it was 1-0, which was pretty good value given what you said at 2.5/1
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Will be more goals 2nd half, Sadd rested couple good attackers, should all come on. Defence is a mess so think we can concede again but 4/5-2 FT or something I think.
 
Spiersey said:
Will be more goals 2nd half, Sadd rested couple good attackers, should all come on. Defence is a mess so think we can concede again but 4/5-2 FT or something I think.
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Good to know! Fingers crossed, didnt seem to be able to convert chances in the last 15 minutes - based on my very reliable bet365 ball tracker thingy.. :lol:
 
Homer 1.20 ( 2-1 )
On The Slopes 2.25 ( 7-2 )
Lord Baddesley 4.00 ( 4-1 )

All at Kempton today
 
I'm often wrong when it comes to Liverpool, but have done quite well betting against us and predicting lineups for cups. I just can't see the logic of betting Chelsea @2,75 ish in this one @Spiersey, and I blindly back every bet you post.
Chelsea are very likely in a dogfight for 4th when this match arrives, while Liverpool will likely be 22+ points ahead of the pack with 10 games to go in the league. Adrian should(but so will Caballero) play, maybe Elliot and Jones, but with quite a few players just or possibly back from injury(Lovren/Matip/Milner/fabinho/Keita/Shaquiri/Mane, the squad looks a lot better than it did and just had a weeks holiday. I just don't see Klopp handing away a place in the quarter final, and think we will see close to a full strength lineup this time.

It's probably just me being biased though, and I'll miss out big time on this one, although I trust your judgement more than mine so will stay away from betting Liverpool @3ish. In the end you probably made me money again by saving me money this time! :D
 
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muller said:
Ended 3-1.. dammit! Good original bet though.
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No idea how your bet lost. Sadd got a goal disallowed by VAR around 55th minute. Was a mythical foul in build up, joke decision. Sadd missed about 4/5 huge chances and away team should have 100% scored as well.
 
John_Dooh said:
I'm often wrong when it comes to Liverpool, but have done quite well betting against us and predicting lineups for cups. I just can't see the logic of betting Chelsea @2,75 ish in this one @Spiersey, and I blindly back every bet you post.
Chelsea are very likely in a dogfight for 4th when this match arrives, while Liverpool will likely be 22+ points ahead of the pack with 10 games to go in the league. Adrian should(but so will Caballero) play, maybe Elliot and Jones, but with quite a few players just or possibly back from injury(Lovren/Matip/Milner/fabinho/Keita/Shaquiri/Mane, the squad looks a lot better than it did and just had a weeks holiday. I just don't see Klopp handing away a place in the quarter final, and think we will see close to a full strength lineup this time.

It's probably just me being biased though, and I'll miss out big time on this one!:wenger:
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The logic is that it’s a no lose bet. The prices reflect a full strength Liverpool team, which is possible. However in that scenario I would just cash out/trade. There’s zero value in the bet if Liverpool go full strength. Worst case scenario is no loss. Best case scenario Liverpool play some kids and Chelsea will kick off about 1/3.
 
Spiersey said:
The logic is that it’s a no lose bet. The prices reflect a full strength Liverpool team, which is possible. However in that scenario I would just cash out/trade. There’s zero value in the bet if Liverpool go full strength. Worst case scenario is no loss. Best case scenario Liverpool play some kids and Chelsea will kick off about 1/3.
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Full strength Liverpool should be around 1.8+, similar as away to Leicester and Spurs? I've always been a bit thick, so what am I missing this time?:nervous:
 
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John_Dooh said:
Full strength Liverpool should be around 1.8+, similar as away to Leicester and Spurs? I've always been a bit thick, so what am I missing this time?:nervous:
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Chelsea are quite a bit better than these two sides. They kicked off at 2.85 at Leicester for example (against an equal team the away side would be ~3.6). Using current market ratings, Liverpool should be ~2.4 at Stamford Bridge in a league game which is precisely what the opening price for the upcoming cup game was. But Chelsea have been backed now.

Personally though, I kind of expect Liverpool to go really strong. Klopp wasn't known for disrespecting the cup in Germany (quite the opposite actually). The situation in England is of course different with the much higher number of games but with the giant lead they have, it would make sense to go full strength against Chelsea and Atletico and rest players in the weekend league game in between. It's only Bournemouth at home as well.
 
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John_Dooh said:
Full strength Liverpool should be around 1.8+, similar as away to Leicester and Spurs? I've always been a bit thick, so what am I missing this time?:nervous:
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Basically what Pagh said. Chelsea are much better rated by the market than Leicester and Spurs. Chelsea were 0 asian favourites away to Leicester which says it all. Liverpool were 2.2 in the league away to Chelsea and the market now rates Chelsea higher than it did back then.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Chelsea are quite a bit better than these two sides. They kicked off at 2.85 at Leicester for example (against an equal team the away side would be ~3.6). Using current market ratings, Liverpool should be ~2.4 at Stamford Bridge in a league game which is precisely what the opening price for the upcoming cup game was. But Chelsea have been backed now.

Personally though, I kind of expect Liverpool to go really strong. Klopp wasn't known for disrespecting the cup in Germany (quite the opposite actually). The situation in England is of course different with the much higher number of games but with the giant lead they have, it would make sense to go full strength against Chelsea and Atletico and rest players in the weekend league game in between. It's only Bournemouth at home as well.
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Pagh Wraith said:
Chelsea are quite a bit better than these two sides. They kicked off at 2.85 at Leicester for example (against an equal team the away side would be ~3.6). Using current market ratings, Liverpool should be ~2.4 at Stamford Bridge in a league game which is precisely what the opening price for the upcoming cup game was. But Chelsea have been backed now.

Personally though, I kind of expect Liverpool to go really strong. Klopp wasn't known for disrespecting the cup in Germany (quite the opposite actually). The situation in England is of course different with the much higher number of games but with the giant lead they have, it would make sense to go full strength against Chelsea and Atletico and rest players in the weekend league game in between. It's only Bournemouth at home as well.
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Spiersey said:
Basically what Pagh said. Chelsea are much better rated by the market than Leicester and Spurs. Chelsea were 0 asian favourites away to Leicester which says it all. Liverpool were 2.2 in the league away to Chelsea and the market now rates Chelsea higher than it did back then.
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Thanks for explaining lads, very informative. Are these market ratings you use available somewhere? I would however argue that the Chelsea - Liverpool game was the 5th league game of the season, and was initially priced @1,8-1,9, if anything the 4 months after that should have made a full strength LFC side bigger favourites, given what we now know?


Edit; Out of daily posts, so adding my Oscar picks here, as I must watch it I needed to make it more entertaining;

1u @34.00 Coolbet - Scarlett Johanssen BSA - Don't see much water between the boats in this category, and Jojo Rabbit is the best movie IMO.
1u @109.57 Pinnacle - Jojo Rabbit best picture - Fantastic movie, original score with great performances, and a great emotional spectrum.
0,1u@109.57 Pinnacle - Marriage Story best picture - 2nd best movie for me, probably to mainstream to win, but wonderfully made with a new take on a universal subject so wouldn't rule it out....
3u @5.00 Marathon - Jojo rabbit BCD - different era, some great touches with Hitler and the boy with the paper uniform. Could be "consolation" Oscar for a great flick probably snubbed in big categories.
3u @1.60 Marathon - Jojo rabbit BAS - Should be a lock, others down to 1,3ish...
5u @1.67 Coolbet - Parasite BOS - Another lock, odds above others.
 
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MC89 said:
Homer 1.20 ( 2-1 )
On The Slopes 2.25 ( 7-2 )
Lord Baddesley 4.00 ( 4-1 )

All at Kempton today
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First 2 in..

I put a fiver on in total (£2.50 on EW), so cheers. Now offering a £50 cash out, or do I try and win the £220.. have 3 places on EW so might just let it ride.

I hate cash out as an option sometimes!
 
muller said:
First 2 in..

I put a fiver on in total (£2.50 on EW), so cheers. Now offering a £50 cash out, or do I try and win the £220.. have 3 places on EW so might just let it ride.

I hate cash out as an option sometimes!
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I'd probably cash out but then back the horse again with around £20~ but it depends how much you see as enough profit. If it did lose though, £30 from £5 is good and gives you something to bet on the weekend or buy the takeaway and some beers for nowt!

How confident are you in this last donkey? I followed your first two as singles but also picked out Ofalltheginjoints and Imperial Elysian (started with a small stake and put it all on each time) so now I'm up to £105.50. Debating how much, if any of it to lump on Lord Baddesley - it's been a boring day at work so this has made it interesting :D

Edit: Did miss the three places on each way so that does make it trickier haha
 
Cresswell card vs City is 6.00 at Betvictor, had a medium bet on that. 3ish elsewhere, 6 yellows in 19 this far.
 
Everton v Crystal Palace
- under 24.5 shots @ 1.90

Brighton v Watford
- under 25.5 shots @ 1.83
- Brighton under 4.5 shots on target @ 2.20
 
One Night Only said:
Nice work, seems to be a market that is working well for you at the moment.
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There markets are poorly priced in general. But it's not a get rich quickly scheme. As far as I know, only 365 trade them and while they're a bit more lenient with account restrictions than others, I'm limiting myself to 50€ stakes to protect mine. Think I'm on my third or fourth account and intend to keep it a while longer.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
There markets are poorly priced in general. But it's not a get rich quickly scheme. As far as I know, only 365 trade them and while they're a bit more lenient with account restrictions than others, I'm limiting myself to 50€ stakes to protect mine. Think I'm on my third or fourth account and intend to keep it a while longer.
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I think bet365 are generous with shots too, they count blocked shots, sky don't iirc, sure sky used to do a shots market, think they still do actually.
 
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