Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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Crap, should had waited. Brown is ahead in the third set after breaking Auger-Aliassime service. I would had closed with a great 50-50 arb. I know: hindsight is always great :D
 
Spiersey said:
Do you bet purely with the intention of arbing?
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Not always, but in sports with 2 results it's quite tempting to do it. Tennis and European basketball (in early stages) are quite good to do it. You won't get rich, but you won't bring your account to zero either.
 
Going to do the following crazy bet:
Brazil to win Copa America
Argentina to win Copa America

If Brasil or Argentina reach the final, I can use arb as insurance.
Otherwise, I'm fecked.

Thoughts?
 
André Dominguez said:
Going to do the following crazy bet:
Brazil to win Copa America
Argentina to win Copa America

If Brasil or Argentina reach the final, I can use arb as insurance.
Otherwise, I'm fecked.

Thoughts?
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It's possible that they meet in the semi if Colombia wins the group which is fairly plausible IMO.
 
André Dominguez said:
Not always, but in sports with 2 results it's quite tempting to do it. Tennis and European basketball (in early stages) are quite good to do it. You won't get rich, but you won't bring your account to zero either.
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Fair, a friend bets full time on tennis. Whenever I followed his bets I would always trade out at 1.06 and below as seen too many lose. Betting to arb has never really appealed to me though, always interested to see how people get on doing it though. I'd struggle mentally having to make so many trading decisions daily, would be constant regret at arbing at the wrong time :lol:
 
Spiersey said:
Fair, a friend bets full time on tennis. Whenever I followed his bets I would always trade out at 1.06 and below as seen too many lose. Betting to arb has never really appealed to me though, always interested to see how people get on doing it though. I'd struggle mentally having to make so many trading decisions daily, would be constant regret at arbing at the wrong time :lol:
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I don't do it for two reasons. Eventually, you'll get banned and it also just takes the fun out of things.
 
Spiersey said:
Fair, a friend bets full time on tennis. Whenever I followed his bets I would always trade out at 1.06 and below as seen too many lose. Betting to arb has never really appealed to me though, always interested to see how people get on doing it though. I'd struggle mentally having to make so many trading decisions daily, would be constant regret at arbing at the wrong time :lol:
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It's just another approach, not better than traditional pre-match betting. If arbing was really that effective the bookies would be bankrupt by now. You have numerous online tools that make the calculations and iterations for you, so not really a big mental work tbh.

Many things can go wrong on trying to arb, no matter how blog x will tell you they can make a live out of it.
 
Berbaclass said:
I don't do it for two reasons. Eventually, you'll get banned and it also just takes the fun out of things.
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You'll only get banned if you do it in the same website. Pre-match odds are not always better in the same website and same applies to live match odds.
 
Jean claude van hire said:
Thanks Andre. And do you have much success using this technique?
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Not bankrupting can be considered a success? :D
If you know the markets very well, you might have a good turnover.
The problem with arbitrage is that you are having smaller profit margins and it means that if one bet goes wrong it will have an impact on your balance. And bookies a lot of times simply close live betting markets which can be a major problem.
 
André Dominguez said:
Not bankrupting can be considered a success? :D
If you know the markets very well, you might have a good turnover.
The problem with arbitrage is that you are having smaller profit margins and it means that if one bet goes wrong it will have an impact on your balance. And bookies a lot of times simply close live betting markets which can be a major problem.
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Thanks mate. Sounds essentially like a lower risk/lower reward type bet which is something I should really consider. Far too many of my bets end in tears:lol:
 
André Dominguez said:
In Basketabll, I think Venezia odd is way up there. They're probably going to loose, but I think their initial odd is strangely big and it could easily fluctuate. Afterall I onlu need Venezia odd to reach 1.44 minimum.
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Closed my position too soon again. Veneza is still in front of the game and it will probably win this match. Off course it's easier on hindisght.
 
Spiersey said:
Staked a treble of Brazil to Win Copa, Mexico to Win Gold Cup and USA to win Womens WC at 16s. Also added in Morocco to win Afcon for a 4fold and then Italy to win u21s for a 5 fold.

Brazil and Mexico both win easily for me barring big upsets. Both are value for me as 2nd favourites are too short imo. Argentina are massively overrated, they shouldn't be 2nd favourites. They've done nothing to suggest they are the 2nd best side bar have Messi. Colombia and Uruguay have both regressed in recent years and Chile are finished. Home advantage for Brazil also as well as a stupidly easy path to the final.
Mexico also have an easyish route to the final. USA got home advantage but 2nd best player for injured this week and will miss the tournament. Mexico have comfortably the best manager and the best team on paper.

USA is a toss up with France basically, I make it 60/40 in favour of USA so with them being priced 50/50 its the value pick for me currently. They'll meet in the quarters, whoever wins that should win the comp.

Morocco are too big of price for me at 13s, should be 6 or 7/1. They're the best side in Africa for me and the most balanced. They were excellent in the World Cup. The other top sides rely too heavily on one player for me. Egypt are rightly favourites given they're at home though.

Italy is a bit of a toss up really, think they should be favourites for the comp though with the squad they've named and with them being hosts. France squad is strong but they are lazy. England squad lacks balance for me, they're stacked with attack minded midfielders and think they've a few weak areas.
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Called Argentina perfectly and didn’t tip Colombia +0.5 today, silly.
 
I think the Stuttgart final will be good for arbing. Aliassime odd is too high, if you bare in mind that he didn't play the semi-finals. Risky because Berrettini is on a good form.

Let's risk arbing on Veneza match again...
 
Gone for Italy U21 to win against Spain U21. Their squad looks strong in midfield and attack, not too familiar with their defence but playing at home should be an advantage
 
Under 7 Goal line is a bet in Socceraid. It's never had more than 6 goals I think and England defence is incredible on paper.
 
Spiersey said:
Staked a treble of Brazil to Win Copa, Mexico to Win Gold Cup and USA to win Womens WC at 16s. Also added in Morocco to win Afcon for a 4fold and then Italy to win u21s for a 5 fold.

Brazil and Mexico both win easily for me barring big upsets. Both are value for me as 2nd favourites are too short imo. Argentina are massively overrated, they shouldn't be 2nd favourites. They've done nothing to suggest they are the 2nd best side bar have Messi. Colombia and Uruguay have both regressed in recent years and Chile are finished. Home advantage for Brazil also as well as a stupidly easy path to the final.
Mexico also have an easyish route to the final. USA got home advantage but 2nd best player for injured this week and will miss the tournament. Mexico have comfortably the best manager and the best team on paper.

USA is a toss up with France basically, I make it 60/40 in favour of USA so with them being priced 50/50 its the value pick for me currently. They'll meet in the quarters, whoever wins that should win the comp.

Morocco are too big of price for me at 13s, should be 6 or 7/1. They're the best side in Africa for me and the most balanced. They were excellent in the World Cup. The other top sides rely too heavily on one player for me. Egypt are rightly favourites given they're at home though.

Italy is a bit of a toss up really, think they should be favourites for the comp though with the squad they've named and with them being hosts. France squad is strong but they are lazy. England squad lacks balance for me, they're stacked with attack minded midfielders and think they've a few weak areas.
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Pretty confident the treble wins after the first games. Brazil can't play any worse and still got the job done. Mexico did what they had to do against a poor side. USA impressive again today.

Italy look good as well, impressing performance so far.

Morocco is a worry after the last two friendlies, they've massively struggled against pacey sides.
 
Very good underdogs on tennis today.

Games to pay atention for possible arbs. I'm going for set victories for arbs this time. (beware of the risk):

Ebden - Albot
Albot is favourite, but he's playing his first grass tournament, while Ebden already started playing grass a few weeks ago.

Johnson - Kohlschreiber (or whatever his name is written)
The german is favourite, but both players are in poor form. It's going to be even.

João Sousa - Hurkacz
The portuguese player usually gives a good fight, so I think there's some potential here.

Haase - Zverev
The historical between both players is quite balanced. I don't think it's going to be as one sided as the odds show them to be.

Verdasco - Medvedev
very risky, but Medvedev is in a very poor form.
 
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Ebden - Albot
Johnson - Kohlschreiber

position closed at first set! Good start.
 
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Verdasco - Medvedev: fail. But I made a very small punt, so not a big loss (Verdasco is already 37)
 
On Denmark u21 +1 asian later on. I've got Germany 1.75 Win fair price. Also did a double of Denmark and Austria both to win at 20/1. Both too big of prices for me, Austria defence is really strong, they are good going forward as well.
 
Closed the Sousa game right now. Took a risk on waiting after that 1st set, but got a higher profit on this one.
 
a small punt in Anderson to recover on this set and game.

Edit: small punt on Tiafoe to recover
 
Spiersey said:
On Denmark u21 +1 asian later on. I've got Germany 1.75 Win fair price. Also did a double of Denmark and Austria both to win at 20/1. Both too big of prices for me, Austria defence is really strong, they are good going forward as well.
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Went for Serbia U21 to win instead before I read this - not familiar with Austria's squad. Just found out that they beat France U21 a week ago :nervous:
 
relx said:
Went for Serbia U21 to win instead before I read this - not familiar with Austria's squad. Just found out that they beat France U21 a week ago :nervous:
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You coudl be right tbf, it's just opinions really. A friend likes Serbia as well. Austria were missing 3/4 of their best players for that game as well. France don't try in friendlies though so wouldn't read into it too much. Serbia got Jovic but barring that their side isn't anything special for me. Austria defence will all be Bundesliga starters next season, got Schlager and Wolf in midfield as well. Don't know too much about the locals for Serbia but if Jovic is kept quiet I'd be surprised if serbia win.
 
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