Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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Havak said:
Anybody on the ponies today at Ascot?

Lots of potential with quite a few heavy favourites touted today.
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Don’t really fancy anything today, fancied the kingman runner headman but a NR and maven but the ground is going against it, ward going to walk course at 12.30 so could b NR aswell
 
Going to take a punt on the underdogs Lyon and a small punt at Veneza.

I think Lyon has a good chance.
 
Spiersey said:
Messed up write up last time
On Spain u21s -1 asian later. Will take Italy -1 as well in play if it reaches 1.8.

Belgium and Poland are both really weak teams for me compared to Italy/Spain. I've planned to oppose Poland since the qualifying rounds. They were very fortunate to qualify. They were fortunate v Georgia (early red card) and was an evenish game, 3-0 was very flattering and it's a poor Georgia gen. They drew with Faroes twice (scored last kick to make it 2-2 one game) . They beat Denmark 3-1 but the first goal was a huge keeper error (let an easy shot through his legs/under his body iirc) and the 2nd was a back pass that put an attacker clean through. They were very fortunate to win the game. Would be very surprised if Italy don't win at the least, think it'll be 2/3-0.

Belgium I just don't rate, Spain with a much better squad and need to win by a couple probably to go through. Be surprised if -1 asian isn't a refund at worst.

Also staked a double of both to win.
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Spain refund and Italy lost. Italy were a lot better, conceded a random goal but should have been ahead by then. Ran out of ideas second half though. I'll be betting Spain against Poland again, their luck will run out eventually. If not, I'll oppose in the semi's.
 
Uruguay v Japan – Uruguay -1.5,-2.0 Asian Handicap @1.975.
 
under 21.5 on Federer match might happen.
On the Tsitsipas match: he certainly has some unfavoured historical against Auger-Aliassime.

Still undecided about Goffin - Zverev match.
 
Well, no matter what happens on the 3 open markets I still have, I will close on positive numbers today.
 
Zurich 2 - 2 Winterthur 70' over 3.5 is done.

Too bad I closed my position at 1-1. This market could be won without needing to make an arbitrage or insurance bet.
 
Poland u21 +1.75 is worth a small bet v Spain @1.8.

I tipped Italy -1 against Poland. I do not rate Poland at all but the price is wrong. Italy kicked off -1.25 which was probably around fair. Italy deserved to win, Poland jsut parked the bus and got a lucky goal, Italy ran out of ideas after 65 minutes though. Italy are better than Spain and have more cutting edge as well, can't justify a 0.5 line movement in favour of Spain. Spain need to win by a couple which is mainly the reasoning the line is high. Poland need a draw to win group, they might even be fine with a 1 goal loss. Fairly sure they will completely park the bus at 0-0 and possibly even 1-0 and just hope for a late counter. I'd have Spain -1.25 around 1.8 or so.
 
Goffin beat Zverev and Tsitsipas lost easily to Auger-Aliassime.

Another two games where arbitrage was not needed, but this is always easier to lament in hindsight.
 
Wacker Innsbruck worth a bet at 10/1 to beat Zenit. They haven't released their lineup yet so it could be a horrendous bet BUT Zenit are so so lazy in the first friendlies every year. I've watched 90% of their friendlies for the past 4 years and they barely even run most of the time, usually zero interest. Negative is that Azmoun starts and he's probably keen to impress but bar that their lineup isn't great. Not much pace in the side. It's a shame they aren't playing against better opposition or I'd have a proper bet on.
 
Spiersey said:
Wacker Innsbruck worth a bet at 10/1 to beat Zenit. They haven't released their lineup yet so it could be a horrendous bet BUT Zenit are so so lazy in the first friendlies every year. I've watched 90% of their friendlies for the past 4 years and they barely even run most of the time, usually zero interest. Negative is that Azmoun starts and he's probably keen to impress but bar that their lineup isn't great. Not much pace in the side. It's a shame they aren't playing against better opposition or I'd have a proper bet on.
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I'm in that game also, but I'm on the over 4 goals market.

Edit: Followed your tip. A small punt on Wacker HA +2.5 with a very good odd
 
Spiersey said:
Wacker Innsbruck worth a bet at 10/1 to beat Zenit. They haven't released their lineup yet so it could be a horrendous bet BUT Zenit are so so lazy in the first friendlies every year. I've watched 90% of their friendlies for the past 4 years and they barely even run most of the time, usually zero interest. Negative is that Azmoun starts and he's probably keen to impress but bar that their lineup isn't great. Not much pace in the side. It's a shame they aren't playing against better opposition or I'd have a proper bet on.
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André Dominguez said:
I'm in that game also, but I'm on the over 4 goals market.

Edit: Followed your tip. A small punt on Wacker HA +2.5 with a very good odd
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Trade out, Wacker just released their lineup. They're playing B team, mainly kids. Didn't think they'd be near as weak as they are, terrible lineup.
 
Spiersey said:
Trade out, Wacker just released their lineup. They're playing B team, mainly kids. Didn't think they'd be near as weak as they are, terrible lineup.
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Not a problem. A small punt doesn't hurt that much and HA 2.5 is quite a decent one.
 
Egypt to smash Zimbabwe in the ACN tonight, got in @1.87 -1.5 at Unibet, prices down to around 1.70 now. Egypt far better players and home advantage. Only worry is that it's an opening game, but think this will be less of a problem and maybe more of a benefit as opposed to in the WC/Euros.
 
I think Zimbabwe to score tonight is too big. Billiat and Musona will be a huge threat on the counter. None of the North African sides (Egypt, Morocco, Algeria etc) can deal with the central African sides pace.
 
John_Dooh said:
Egypt to smash Zimbabwe in the ACN tonight, got in @1.87 -1.5 at Unibet, prices down to around 1.70 now. Egypt far better players and home advantage. Only worry is that it's an opening game, but think this will be less of a problem and maybe more of a benefit as opposed to in the WC/Euros.
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Smashed em' 1-0!
 
Had Egypt HT/FT, France U21's, Romania U21's. Good return with Romania being @3.60.

Not sure why they were so high odds considering they smashed Croatia 4-1 first game and have some good youngsters. Add to the fact, Bothroyd is a dinosaur and can't pick a team.
 
Spain u21 - Poland U21
Spain -6 corners EH @2.12, medium bet (uni)

Poland with 5 at the back again, conceding a lot of corners, Spain needs to win by two so should be attacking for close to 90mins....
 
Anyone follow women’s World Cup and can give thoughts as to France v Brazil - Brazil is 9-1, seems quite generous or is that fair odds?

Ditto Japan at 4s vs Netherlands.

I’ll be honest I haven’t watched much of the WWCs, so purely an odds based question?
 
John_Dooh said:
Spain u21 - Poland U21
Spain -6 corners EH @2.12, medium bet (uni)

Poland with 5 at the back again, conceding a lot of corners, Spain needs to win by two so should be attacking for close to 90mins....
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10-1, was covered @HT. Also added a small medium bet on Spain -1.25 when the odds went up, following @Spiersey 's (as always) excellent tip, thanks bud!

Flanders Devil said:
Anyone follow women’s World Cup and can give thoughts as to France v Brazil - Brazil is 9-1, seems quite generous or is that fair odds?

Ditto Japan at 4s vs Netherlands.

I’ll be honest I haven’t watched much of the WWCs, so purely an odds based question?
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Think they'll both lose, haven't considered the odds though. Brazil slow and lethargic, Martha doesn't seems like the same player. Japan could shock i guess, but on a downward spiral for a while, the dutch I haven't seen but should be one of the top european sides after France.

I'm on Åsane vs Kaupanger in Norwegian 1.div Women @1.85. 5-1 last season should be easy win again. Edit: 0-0 thanks for nothing.
 
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Think they'll both lose, haven't considered the odds though. Brazil slow and lethargic, Martha doesn't seems like the same player. Japan could shock i guess, but on a downward spiral for a while, the dutch I haven't seen but should be one of the top european sides after France.

Thanks mate, appreciate the response
 
I think Brazil is too good of a price tbh, France haven't been amazing by any stretch. I know the knockout games are completely different, but still, Brazil aren't exactly shite
 
Had some on Qatar +2 asian. Genuinely think they can win the game. They’ll park the bus and hit on the counter. When they park the bus they are really solid and compact. Colombia are a much better unit than Argentina and struggled to break them down. Paraguay scored early which changed things.
Qatar counter will be strong, it wasn’t as efficient v Colombia as Colombia defence is really quick so they could match Qatar’s attackers for pace. Argentina defence isn’t really that quick. If Argentina don’t score early can see them getting very frustrated as the game goes on.

I’m also on a penalty to be awarded at 2/1. Individually Qatar are a little bit erratic at times, a late challenge/handball wouldn’t surprise me.
 
Under 6 corners at 6.5 in Holland W vs Japan W looks a nice price. I don't normally bet on corners but I know that 365's corner line is pretty much guesswork, and they're weighing more towards the tournament average than the true value.
 
luke511 said:
Under 6 corners at 6.5 in Holland W vs Japan W looks a nice price. I don't normally bet on corners but I know that 365's corner line is pretty much guesswork, and they're weighing more towards the tournament average than the true value.
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Followed you with a small bet here, price seems too high, as you say!

On Johnson - Opelka o25.5 @1.93 in ATP Eastbourne, there shouldn't be to many broken serves in that match.
 
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Spiersey said:
Had some on Qatar +2 asian. Genuinely think they can win the game. They’ll park the bus and hit on the counter. When they park the bus they are really solid and compact. Colombia are a much better unit than Argentina and struggled to break them down. Paraguay scored early which changed things.
Qatar counter will be strong, it wasn’t as efficient v Colombia as Colombia defence is really quick so they could match Qatar’s attackers for pace. Argentina defence isn’t really that quick. If Argentina don’t score early can see them getting very frustrated as the game goes on.

I’m also on a penalty to be awarded at 2/1. Individually Qatar are a little bit erratic at times, a late challenge/handball wouldn’t surprise me.
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Push, early error from Qatar changed how game played out. 2 goal loss probably fair.


France Romania is worth watching. The odds have been smashed as both go through with a draw, however both also go through with a 1/2 goal win for France. In play it should be pretty apparent how much each team is trying, should be nice for a bet.
 
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