Ah no, Maple Leafs let me down on this. Was on a good roll as well.
Football Betting Thread 2017/2018
- Thread starter RedPed
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Ah no, Maple Leafs let me down on this. Was on a good roll as well.
Sydney score their second penalty after already missing one just before HT
over 1.5 goals landed at Shaktar too but didn't get onAh nice one. Rationalization of bets. Really like this strategy.
Just learn basket outside of NBA.
Looking at NBL (aussie) and KBL (korea), seems HT always under, and after HT you can bet on over. But most of times it was under
Disclaimer on. Not yet make any bet.
Exactly. And for those that have been there, chasing losses, you know that when the going gets though, you also start making bad decisions. Instead of being sensible, you start believing luck will change, it has to.
Applied this when i was young and single. When came it was so good, but when things got dire, felt like hell.
There were times when all my monthly paychecks just went away to donate a bookies.
Not recommended unless you are 100% full time gamblers like master @Spiersey .
The stress will rise your blood tension, believe me, i had been there.
There were times when all my monthly paychecks just went away to donate a bookies.
Not recommended unless you are 100% full time gamblers like master @Spiersey .
The stress will rise your blood tension, believe me, i had been there.
Sounds like you have a serious addiction, man. Maybe you should lay off betting for a while.
I could not bear myself to watch basketball outside NBA. I enjoy betting on NBA because I love NBA, winning some money recently is just a byproduct of something I genuinely like.
Atlanta United fecked me up big time last night. You just knew they were going to lose after dominating the game and hitting the post/bar 3 times.
Milwaukee also let me down.
Milwaukee also let me down.
Honestly betting on favourites in NBA seldom works. There are 82 games in a season, teams will have off days and the pressure to win every single one of them is not so hard which is why favourites can even step back sometimes when down by a large margin because they will have another game on mind already, or just not bother turning up (Cavaliers do that very often as evidenced by losing to Nets and Magic this season and beating Bulls by the tiniest margin).
Handicaps are good, betting on close games is sometimes a good idea, betting on underdogs with a handicap when it's exaggerated too. Obviously I love players markets now but let's see how it goes deeper into season, especially as some of the lines are obviously still not adjusted for the new season and new teams.
I've withdrawn 900 PLN and kept 600 PLN on my account for now, hopefully I don't go from here to zero. It's a total of almost 4000 PLN withdrawn over the last week, what a week this has been for me - absolutely spectacular stuff, and to think I still missed about 8000 PLN more because Jokic (actually Jokic is the ONLY player who has ruined my bets for the last week).
That's not going well at all...
Yeah I've realized betting on favourites in tight/evenly contested teams is not a good idea.
Like last night I was killing myself to either do Celtics +9 or take the Bucks ML. Obviously made the wrong choice but I like the idea of now taking an alternative point spread in tight games just for added security for my bets.
I also bet on Kings last night and thank god Bet365 has automatic payout if your team goes up by 18 so I won that bet.
What do you think about the Raptors tonight? It's a game I will keep an eye on. Your players bets have been so good. I do think that vegas will see that most of these players are going over on the lines and so might adjust it in the future so that the bets are harder to call. If that makes sense.
3 matches tomorrow in the Japan J2 League that caught my eye:
Vortis v Hollyhock
Roasso v VVN
Verdy v Avispa
For the Vortis-Hollyhock, I'm going for Vortis -1.5. Watched them play a few times; pretty much an attacking side but their defence is a little bit suspect. However, Hollyhock have scored the least number of goals away from home this season and they have pretty much nothing to play for, so hopefully this will turn out to be good.
Next one; VVN HT-FT. Not so confident for this one as VVN fecked up one of my bets 2 weeks ago, but Roasso have lost 10 out of 19 home games at half-time and they will be up against a team that has to win to stay in play-off contention... Worth a shot I reckon.
Verdy v Avispa - Avispa will be missing 3 players (one of them their top scorer) due to suspension. They have only lost two away games so far but I have a feeling Verdy will win due to the suspensions...
Vortis v Hollyhock
Roasso v VVN
Verdy v Avispa
For the Vortis-Hollyhock, I'm going for Vortis -1.5. Watched them play a few times; pretty much an attacking side but their defence is a little bit suspect. However, Hollyhock have scored the least number of goals away from home this season and they have pretty much nothing to play for, so hopefully this will turn out to be good.
Next one; VVN HT-FT. Not so confident for this one as VVN fecked up one of my bets 2 weeks ago, but Roasso have lost 10 out of 19 home games at half-time and they will be up against a team that has to win to stay in play-off contention... Worth a shot I reckon.
Verdy v Avispa - Avispa will be missing 3 players (one of them their top scorer) due to suspension. They have only lost two away games so far but I have a feeling Verdy will win due to the suspensions...
I totally forgot to bet on it but just saw him break back. I don't think I wanna jump on it now, seems to be extremely tight.
It's a good thing you didn't
Ahh can't win them all. I just bet on Schwartzman to beat Kohlscreiber. I'll prolly lose this one instead.
Do not do this, it will end very badly trust me. You don't have to be rubbish to lose 5 bets in a row at All, I've lost 17 out of 18 bets on my worst ever run a couple of years Back and they were all odds of 1
7-2.1 (all of which were good bets and should have been lower odds) variance is a nightmare and can easily happen for 5 bets in a row.
The biggest issue with betting full time is you expect to make money. So when I place a bet and it wins, there's no real emotion, as it's what I expected. However, when I lose a few I'm utterly miserable. I basically work 18 hours a day to either win bets to feel normal or lose to feel miserable. Loads suffer depression from it, there's no where near as much highs as there is lows (despite making money more days than losing it)
I put an acca on internationals a few weeks back as I was bored and won a few k. The thrill off that is 1000x better than anything made betting full time, very weird.
Martingale is just scary. Just think about the pressure with fifth bet after you lost previous four.
I like the systems with betting with money we earned. Something like this:
Bank 100
Bet 1 10 x 2
Bet 2 Bet 1 winnings x 2
Bet 3 Bet 2 winnings x 2
---------------------------
And now we're at...
Bank 100 + Bet 3 winnings
Bet 4 10 x 2
Bet 5 Bet 4 winnings x 2
Bet 6 Bet 5 winnings x 2
And so on and on. If you lose a *round* (of three bets) you lose just 10 units. It's a slow progression, that's for sure, but also much much much much (add 17 *much*es more) safer than Martingale.
OkActually in the last NBA season, if you'd bet on underdogs you would've made big profit. Almost always betting on favs or dogs throughout the season results in a loss. At least that's what happened in NBA in the previous 6 seasons, except for the last one.
If we actually managed to talk you out of it, I say that's a good job. Make that frown into
, trust us.Anyway, took Del Potro, Goffin and no tie-break in Federer's match. First two are in the hunt for ATP Finals, plus, they are just better than opponents, so took. And Federer is Federer.
Agreed. I found myself betting on plus handicaps for underdogs and it was often a smooth win. It's important not to put them in big accumulators too because that way you will "waste" a lot of great predictions.
Odds have started to appear, so far only Hornets v Rockets game but I already like Kemba Walker's line for points plus assists, which is at 28... Houston are not so bright on defense, I am not that confident about over 22.5 points or over 5.5 assists but he might catch up one stat with another. He will IMO get minimum 20 points and minimum 4 assists, it's about where the remaining 4 are going to come from but considering he's their main scoring option and you can always trust Rockets to concede a lot of points, I like it.
Wow, Del Potro, wow.
Opponent accidentally hits him with a ball (outside of play), and he goes into meltdown soon after. Weak willed guy.
Opponent accidentally hits him with a ball (outside of play), and he goes into meltdown soon after. Weak willed guy.
One tactic I use is I'll bet on a big club if they've lost the previous game. You rarely see big clubs losing twice/three times in a row. It happens, but it's rare. For example, obviously Everton had a shit streak of games, but Arsenal lost their previous match against Watford. I wasn't expecting Arsenal to lose again because that'd mean they would lose 2 PL matches in a row. Guess what, they beat Everton.
It's also why I don't expect United to lose against Spurs tomorrow (which has become more likely now that Kane is out).
It's also why I don't expect United to lose against Spurs tomorrow (which has become more likely now that Kane is out).
Small stake Leon II No Clean Sheet at 6/4.
Really fancy Sturm Graz II tonight. Coin flip between draw no bet @2.00 and FT result @ 2.70.
Should be a first half goal at Go Ahead Eagles v AZ Reserves, currently just over 1/2.
Took me hours but it's there:
Gortat over 10.5 rebounds @ 1.85 - as long as he plays against Green, he should be able to beat him to most defensive rebounds due to size difference. The two times he did not go above 11 season were against Drummond who is a monster and Jokic who was having immense game on the perimeter and inside. He got 17 against Sixers and 14 against Lakers the other night. This is B.
Kanter over 25.0 points and rebounds - again he will be the best rebounded on the floor, this time the line is not wrong though so no easy money to be made there to be fair. Still, his inside presence should IMO secure him a good number of points against Nets who don't have anybody to defend him, and he will still get a lot of rebounds. This is IMO a B+.
Kemba Walker over 28.0 points and assists @ 1.85 - he is Hornets main scoring option these days and gets 4-6 assists in most games. Rockets games have high intensity but they don't guard backcourts that well, would be different story if CP3 played but he won't. He should cover 22 points easily but I like having insurance of assists. Again, a B.
Gortat over 10.5 rebounds @ 1.85 - as long as he plays against Green, he should be able to beat him to most defensive rebounds due to size difference. The two times he did not go above 11 season were against Drummond who is a monster and Jokic who was having immense game on the perimeter and inside. He got 17 against Sixers and 14 against Lakers the other night. This is B.
Kanter over 25.0 points and rebounds - again he will be the best rebounded on the floor, this time the line is not wrong though so no easy money to be made there to be fair. Still, his inside presence should IMO secure him a good number of points against Nets who don't have anybody to defend him, and he will still get a lot of rebounds. This is IMO a B+.
Kemba Walker over 28.0 points and assists @ 1.85 - he is Hornets main scoring option these days and gets 4-6 assists in most games. Rockets games have high intensity but they don't guard backcourts that well, would be different story if CP3 played but he won't. He should cover 22 points easily but I like having insurance of assists. Again, a B.
Going to try and put the profit on Go Ahead Eagles to score in the 2nd half. Currently 1/2. Will take it at about 1.70.
Got gortat over 9.5 rebounds @1.83 on bet365
Also kanter over 25.5 points assists and rebounds @1.83 also
And onto the next one. Lech Poznan to score, currently 1/2, same approach. Will take this at around 1.8.
Bet365 is illegal in Poland and you cannot access the site unless from VPN but even then you need to use a card from abroad which I don't have and register under foreign address which I also don't have. Oh, and be able to show foreign ID to have your account verified - guess what.
Basically the only place where I can play is Unibet and I'm not even sure how long this one is going to be up.
This one was a big blowout.
How come they don't want you to bet in Poland?
It's the law. Unibet are somehow getting around that for some reason but they are one of two or three foreign bookmakers who do. Even then, you have to deposit and withdraw in EUR through some third party providers.
There are local bookmakers but they charge 12% tax and not just on winnings but also the stake so it's pointless. Putting 100 on 1.85 can win you 162.8.
94th min!
Had a million chances but scored in the very last minute of stoppage time.
Had over 9 corners in PSG - Nice. Almost cashed out at HT on 6, since the game was lacking action and the corners really coming cheaply at the end. Got greedy and waited, didn’t happen anything so I cashed out still at 6 after 70 minutes at 1/3 of my stake. Spent it all on PSG to score the 4th goal to have some excitement. Then of course corners arrive and we have 3 in the last 10 minutes, and at the very end PSG get a 100% chance to score - but Lucas finishes extremely badly and his shot goes to the 10th corner instead. Very good betting by me....
I went for Ibaka over 5.5 rebounds, George over 5.5 rebounds and Jokic (yes him) over 17.5 points too for a smaller stake. Ibaka and George because the lines are small and in Ibaka's case there will be lots to rebound from Lakers shots, George is a very good rebounder too. Jokic is silly given my history with that bastard but Hawks are rotating Collins and Dedmon. Collins is a BAD defender.