Football Betting Thread 2017/2018

BobbyManc said:
Oh give me a fecking break. Sums it up that I had over 0.5 FHG at Sint-Trudinese. In the space of two minutes they just had a goal disallowed by the VAR and a minute later missed a penalty. Just one of those days :lol:
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Sums it all up! I was on Bucharest half time. Don't know how they contrived to not score !
 
devil in me said:
Sums it all up! I was on Bucharest half time. Don't know how they contrived to not score !
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I've just seen I had another goal disallowed notification on the 45th minute for the Sint-Trudinese game :lol: mental, two disallowed goals and a missed penalty, to compound the failure of both PSV and Bucharest to score despite having almost 40 shots between them against weaker opposition
 
Sarni said:
My recommendations for tonight:

Lauri Markkanen over 23.5 total points and rebounds @ 1.85 - this boy has been amazing since coming into the league, scoring and rebounding at a very good rate. He has covered this total in all his games so far and Atlanta will be by far the worst team he has faced all season. He has been Bulls main scoring option and their go to man so should probably enjoy his shooting tonighttop of that, Atlanta don't really rebound that we'll, so he should probably get 8-10 rebounds. It's actually a B+.

Al Horford over 13.5 points @ 1.85 - if he plays most of his time at center, he will get that because Bucks do not have great interior defence and Horford has to be one of main scoring options for Cs. Even at power forward he might knock a couple of threes to boost his total. This is a B- for me.

I will come back with something for Sacramento v New Orleans game when odds appear.
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Not feeling that amazing about Horford. Looked his stats up and he often ends up within the 10-12 range which would be a let down. Tempted by Giannis over 9.5 rebounds considering he is playing Celtics. I don't get any odds for Sacramento v New Orleans at Unibet otherwise I would probably just look at Cousins.

Markkanen I really, really like.
 
Another one I found which I like:

Tony Snell over 9.5 points @ 1.90 - he has been playing consistent minutes this season and gets plenty of open looks from Giannis passes. Middleton is still their number two but Snell is a good shooter and 9.5 is not a very high line honestly. On the other hand he will have either Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown defending him which is why I can only rate this at B- too.
 
Undone by what...1.15? Thanks a bunch, Zidane. Think I recognize two names from the complete Real line-up.

Worst part is that the ticket was just fine before this pair, which I added just to pump up the odds just that tiny tiny bit more. :)



Any tips on self-discipline?
 
Mrs Smoker said:
Undone by what...1.15? Thanks a bunch, Zidane. Think I recognize two names from the complete Real line-up.

Worst part is that the ticket was just fine before this pair, which I added just to pump up the odds just that tiny tiny bit more. :)



Any tips on self-discipline?
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Ah, the thing that ultimately fecks up almost every acca :)

I've also done it many, many times. Fecking greed :lol:
 
Sarni said:
Another one I found which I like:

Tony Snell over 9.5 points @ 1.90 - he has been playing consistent minutes this season and gets plenty of open looks from Giannis passes. Middleton is still their number two but Snell is a good shooter and 9.5 is not a very high line honestly. On the other hand he will have either Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown defending him which is why I can only rate this at B- too.
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Which betting site to do you use? Cant find these on BET365
 
Scorpy said:
Ah, the thing that ultimately fecks up almost every acca :)

I've also done it many, many times. Fecking greed :lol:
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My anti-jinx whining helped. But really should learn to ignore such odds and games. :nervous:

NBA fans, this is points only, what do you guys think might be most likely? Two or three selections only...

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Will take Markkanen for sure, but Sarni's not that confident with Horford any longer, so looking for something else.
 
I'm going for Matthews over 12.5 points; Bucks and grizzlies moneyline parlay; Marc Gasol over 22.5 points. I'm 0/6 on my own NBA bets this season, hoping to get back on track tonight.
 
Any thoughts about Atlanta United tonight? As well as Sacramento hosting Bougie Cousins back for the first time since he got traded? I like Sactown winning this game, and it's a pick-em at 1.90.
 
Gone for Maple Leafs ML, Lightening ML, Grizzlies ML and Sharks/Bruins u6.5 @4.6

Best of luck all!
 
Sarni said:
My recommendations for tonight:

Lauri Markkanen over 23.5 total points and rebounds @ 1.85 - this boy has been amazing since coming into the league, scoring and rebounding at a very good rate. He has covered this total in all his games so far and Atlanta will be by far the worst team he has faced all season. He has been Bulls main scoring option and their go to man so should probably enjoy his shooting tonighttop of that, Atlanta don't really rebound that we'll, so he should probably get 8-10 rebounds. It's actually a B+.

Al Horford over 13.5 points @ 1.85 - if he plays most of his time at center, he will get that because Bucks do not have great interior defence and Horford has to be one of main scoring options for Cs. Even at power forward he might knock a couple of threes to boost his total. This is a B- for me.

I will come back with something for Sacramento v New Orleans game when odds appear.
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The Marrkanen bet has to be a winner. Hawks are looking awful at the moment and have a few injuries. Im on it!
 
Ronaldo's Mum Eh? said:
Any thoughts about Atlanta United tonight? As well as Sacramento hosting Bougie Cousins back for the first time since he got traded? I like Sactown winning this game, and it's a pick-em at 1.90.
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I think Atlanta are the most likely winners especially with their home crowd I just didn't like the price of 1.61.

Anthony Davis is most likely out so god knows how the Pelicans will be without him, they have the better starters but their bench isn't great. Tough one to call.
 
Jagga7 said:
I think Atlanta are the most likely winners especially with their home crowd I just didn't like the price of 1.61.

Anthony Davis is most likely out so god knows how the Pelicans will be without him, they have the better starters but their bench isn't great. Tough one to call.
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You can get Atlanta at a better price now
 
Sarni, you legend. Got a little bit close towards the end, but he managed 27 points and rebounds in the end. That late 3 made it not look like a win by the skin of the teeth :D
 
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theralyst said:
Sarni, you legend. Got a little bit close towards the end, but he managed 27 points and rebounds in the end. That late 3 made it not look like a win by the skin of the teeth :D
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Yeah it was close but some of them will have to be. I got 8 of them right in a row which is kind of crazy considering they are all around evens. A bit of regret that I went for half a stake tonight as I wasn't feeling that confident over Horford and he exploded for 27 but still a nice profit and it was reasonable decision to give it a smaller stake.
 
Sarni said:
Yeah it was close but some of them will have to be. I got 8 of them right in a row which is kind of crazy considering they are all around evens. A bit of regret that I went for half a stake tonight as I wasn't feeling that confident over Horford and he exploded for 27 but still a nice profit and it was reasonable decision to give it a smaller stake.
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If you put £25 on a running bet, you'd be sitting on over 3 grand. That's some fecking run.

Good thing about these bets is that you can't really find these tips anywhere else, so it's a good chance to beat the market, so long as you know what you are talking about and you seem to have this shit locked. Variance is knocking at your door though :nervous:
 
Take a look at this

https://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=23538

It's a guy using a variant of the martingale system. Say you start off with £100 and place a £3 bet (you always bet at around 2 in odds). If you win, you're up to £103. If you lose, you're down to £97, but you then bet £6 to make up for what you just lost. If that fails, you then bet £12. Then £24. Then 48. If you lose at 48 you're pretty much out of money, but you're absolutely rubbish if you lose 5 bets in a row with an odds of 2. If that feels too risky for you you could lower the risk by doing 2/4/8/16 etc or starting with 200 and not 100, or playing on different odds. Either way it should work. It doesn't work in casinos because the odds of winning in roulette is somewhere around 46%. In football betting however, it should work right? I think I'm going to do this with £100 and try to get it up to £200 before pulling out. Thoughts?
 
theralyst said:
If you put £25 on a running bet, you'd be sitting on over 3 grand. That's some fecking run.

Good thing about these bets is that you can't really find these tips anywhere else, so it's a good chance to beat the market, so long as you know what you are talking about and you seem to have this shit locked. Variance is knocking at your door though :nervous:
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Yeah I got a feeling it's a bit of a niche market so I might actually be able to find some good value. I am 13 out of 17 this season so far in players market, it's almost a shame I 'only' got about £300 out of the last two nights. I keep convincing myself now that it was correct decision to go for half a stak this night :lol:. It's easy to regret that when you know the bet won, I wasn't so confident before. Still a nice win tonight and 500% profit on the original stake in 2 days is not too shabby.

Looking forward to tomorrow. I obviously don't know what the lines are going to be but there are 2-3 players I am already looking forward to investigating.
 
Macern said:
Take a look at this

https://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=23538

It's a guy using a variant of the martingale system. Say you start off with £100 and place a £3 bet (you always bet at around 2 in odds). If you win, you're up to £103. If you lose, you're down to £97, but you then bet £6 to make up for what you just lost. If that fails, you then bet £12. Then £24. Then 48. If you lose at 48 you're pretty much out of money, but you're absolutely rubbish if you lose 5 bets in a row with an odds of 2. If that feels too risky for you you could lower the risk by doing 2/4/8/16 etc or starting with 200 and not 100, or playing on different odds. Either way it should work. It doesn't work in casinos because the odds of winning in roulette is somewhere around 46%. In football betting however, it should work right? I think I'm going to do this with £100 and try to get it up to £200 before pulling out. Thoughts?
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Never ever play the martingale system. It might be hard to imagine losing evens 5 on the trot but it's far more likely than what we imagine it is.

Just go to this website https://www.random.org/coins/ and make a simulation of a coin toss just to see how often you get the unexpectedly long series of the same result.
 
alan_nis said:
Never ever play the martingale system. It might be hard to imagine losing evens 5 on the trot but it's far more likely than what we imagine it is.

Just go to this website https://www.random.org/coins/ and make a simulation of a coin toss just to see how often you get the unexpectedly long series of the same result.
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If you are playing my NBA player bets which are all around 1.85 you are never going to lose 5 in a row :wenger:
 
Martingale is just scary. Just think about the pressure with fifth bet after you lost previous four.

I like the systems with betting with money we earned. Something like this:

Bank 100
Bet 1 10 x 2
Bet 2 Bet 1 winnings x 2
Bet 3 Bet 2 winnings x 2
---------------------------

And now we're at...
Bank 100 + Bet 3 winnings
Bet 4 10 x 2
Bet 5 Bet 4 winnings x 2
Bet 6 Bet 5 winnings x 2

And so on and on. If you lose a *round* (of three bets) you lose just 10 units. It's a slow progression, that's for sure, but also much much much much (add 17 *much*es more) safer than Martingale. :D
 
Macern said:
Take a look at this

https://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=23538

It's a guy using a variant of the martingale system. Say you start off with £100 and place a £3 bet (you always bet at around 2 in odds). If you win, you're up to £103. If you lose, you're down to £97, but you then bet £6 to make up for what you just lost. If that fails, you then bet £12. Then £24. Then 48. If you lose at 48 you're pretty much out of money, but you're absolutely rubbish if you lose 5 bets in a row with an odds of 2. If that feels too risky for you you could lower the risk by doing 2/4/8/16 etc or starting with 200 and not 100, or playing on different odds. Either way it should work. It doesn't work in casinos because the odds of winning in roulette is somewhere around 46%. In football betting however, it should work right? I think I'm going to do this with £100 and try to get it up to £200 before pulling out. Thoughts?
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I agree with the rest - it's a very silly idea. The house edge/profit margin is probably higher on football than roulette. If you have a value bet on football that's obviously not the case but if you have a value bet then you don't need a silly system. The system is essentially just chasing your losses.
 
I used to apply a tiny progression whenever I got a losing day (in NBA, for instance) but it was sometimes so nerve-wracking that I switched to fixed rate.

What Sarni is doing with applying wages to different events seems really smart (it's like Kelly's Criterion) but it requires very good knowledge of the league in order to evaluate each bet and comparing it to the price of the bettor.
 
I got my £10 up to £87 yesterday in a few Unders bets. It's crazy how often and quickly I can build it in a day, but I had a bad beat in the UAE league. 94th Min Penalty to make a game 3-2 when I had Under 4.5. It's crushed me and was planning on banking after that win too. Might start again today.
 
Macern said:
Take a look at this

https://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=23538

It's a guy using a variant of the martingale system. Say you start off with £100 and place a £3 bet (you always bet at around 2 in odds). If you win, you're up to £103. If you lose, you're down to £97, but you then bet £6 to make up for what you just lost. If that fails, you then bet £12. Then £24. Then 48. If you lose at 48 you're pretty much out of money, but you're absolutely rubbish if you lose 5 bets in a row with an odds of 2. If that feels too risky for you you could lower the risk by doing 2/4/8/16 etc or starting with 200 and not 100, or playing on different odds. Either way it should work. It doesn't work in casinos because the odds of winning in roulette is somewhere around 46%. In football betting however, it should work right? I think I'm going to do this with £100 and try to get it up to £200 before pulling out. Thoughts?
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It's a stupid system precisely because people apply this logic. Go find the best tipsters in the world in any sport and I guarantee they could give you numerous examples of where they lost more than five bets in a row, and that's with all the insight and research you could ask for. You need a proper staking system. The Martingale system is dangerous not only because it's going to lose you money but it's such a slippery slope towards chasing your losses and therefore a gambling addiction.
 
Sydney v Perth looks good for a first half goal (1/2), and I'd expect over 1.5 goals at Shaktar Donetsk u-21 (8/15). Will take one of them at evens, not sure which at the moment though. Leaning towards Perth.
 
Congrats @Sarni ...keep share the tips, mate...

Actually if you have a time to research, a single bet is more profitable than parlays.

Weekend football is coming, time to make a profit....hahahahaha.
 
Macern said:
Take a look at this

https://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=23538

It's a guy using a variant of the martingale system. Say you start off with £100 and place a £3 bet (you always bet at around 2 in odds). If you win, you're up to £103. If you lose, you're down to £97, but you then bet £6 to make up for what you just lost. If that fails, you then bet £12. Then £24. Then 48. If you lose at 48 you're pretty much out of money, but you're absolutely rubbish if you lose 5 bets in a row with an odds of 2. If that feels too risky for you you could lower the risk by doing 2/4/8/16 etc or starting with 200 and not 100, or playing on different odds. Either way it should work. It doesn't work in casinos because the odds of winning in roulette is somewhere around 46%. In football betting however, it should work right? I think I'm going to do this with £100 and try to get it up to £200 before pulling out. Thoughts?
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Haha, You may as well just do this with Blackjack. You'll double your money eventually.
 
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Thinking of going for Struff to beat Edmund and Del Potro to beat Bautista Agut

Will be close between Struff and Edmund but indoor hard court will favor Struff I suppose
 
Aza Boy said:
Congrats @Sarni ...keep share the tips, mate...

Actually if you have a time to research, a single bet is more profitable than parlays.

Weekend football is coming, time to make a profit....hahahahaha.
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I have been doing doubles as they are usually 3.3 to 3.5, I think I will be better off this way as they bring significant winnings in one turn.

I will split my stake into three different thresholds: 150 PLN, 300 PLN and 600 PLN based on how I rate each games on the coupon. Last night I went for 150, the night before it was 300. I will keep 50 PLN as a flat stake for longer accumulators I will occasionally play. 600 PLN will be strictly reserved for absolute pearls and probably just singles, very seldom doubles.
 
maba723 said:
Thinking of going for Struff to beat Edmund and Del Potro to beat Bautista Agut

Will be close between Struff and Edmund but indoor hard court will favor Struff I suppose
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I think i'm going to jump on the Struff bet as well. Edmund had a tough game yesterday and from the bits I saw he wasn't that great against Novak.
 
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