Fantasy Premier League 2024/25

This week my transfer has been done (Ndiaye to Larsen).

Raya
Gabriel, TAA, Mazraoui
Mbuemo, Palmer, Semenyo, ESR
Haaland, Larsen, Solanke

Subs: Fabianski, Rogers, Andersen, Greaves

Next week I can do one of the below.

Raya, TAA, ESR & Solanke to Verbruggen, Hall, Salah & Welbeck (-4 point hit and 0.5 in the bank)

or

Raya, ESR & Solanke to Verbruggen, Saka & Welbeck (no hits & 0.5 in the bank)

Any thoughts?
 
Dirty Schwein said:
This week my transfer has been done (Ndiaye to Larsen).

Raya
Gabriel, TAA, Mazraoui
Mbuemo, Palmer, Semenyo, ESR
Haaland, Larsen, Solanke

Subs: Fabianski, Rogers, Andersen, Greaves

Next week I can do one of the below.

Raya, TAA, ESR & Solanke to Verbruggen, Hall, Salah & Welbeck (-4 point hit and 0.5 in the bank)

or

Raya, ESR & Solanke to Verbruggen, Saka & Welbeck (no hits & 0.5 in the bank)

Any thoughts?
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Ndiaye is going to score a hat trick next week.
 
Ive managed to shoehorn Haaland, Salah and Palmer into my team - lets see if its worth the spend !
 
Planning to use my 3 FTs to move on from Lewis, Dibling and Haaland to Mazraoui, Palmer and Evanilson. Use savings and remaining budget after international break to move from Bowen to Salah. Thoughts?
 
Sarni said:
Planning to use my 3 FTs to move on from Lewis, Dibling and Haaland to Mazraoui, Palmer and Evanilson. Use savings and remaining budget after international break to move from Bowen to Salah. Thoughts?
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Move on haaland?
 
Sarni said:
Planning to use my 3 FTs to move on from Lewis, Dibling and Haaland to Mazraoui, Palmer and Evanilson. Use savings and remaining budget after international break to move from Bowen to Salah. Thoughts?
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Hasn't Bowen got great fixtures soon? I'll be looking to get him in when they turn.

In fact Mbeumo to Bowen GW14 looks like the play.
 
El-Manos said:
Move on haaland?
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Yeah I'm finding it boring to just have him stuck as captain every single week, and feels counter productive to have him if I'm not captaining him. It's been the most boring season yet for me, and it's not like I have the points to compensate for this.
 
CassiusClaymore said:
Hasn't Bowen got great fixtures soon? I'll be looking to get him in when they turn.

In fact Mbeumo to Bowen GW14 looks like the play.
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They are terrible though. Fixtures don't matter when the team is abysmal.
 
United with LEI (H) IPS (A) EVE (H) next. Beautiful fixtures and I think I'll need to bring at least one of our lads.
 
Red Star One said:
United with LEI (H) IPS (A) EVE (H) next. Beautiful fixtures and I think I'll need to bring at least one of our lads.
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Trouble is we don't know who will be the ones to get with the new manager and system he'll implement. I guess Bruno is the safest bet if you can afford him. And Hojlund?
 
Dirty Schwein said:
This week my transfer has been done (Ndiaye to Larsen).

Raya
Gabriel, TAA, Mazraoui
Mbuemo, Palmer, Semenyo, ESR
Haaland, Larsen, Solanke

Subs: Fabianski, Rogers, Andersen, Greaves

Next week I can do one of the below.

Raya, TAA, ESR & Solanke to Verbruggen, Hall, Salah & Welbeck (-4 point hit and 0.5 in the bank)

or

Raya, ESR & Solanke to Verbruggen, Saka & Welbeck (no hits & 0.5 in the bank)

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
Any thoughts on this anyone?
 
Dirty Schwein said:
Any thoughts on this anyone?
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I got Solanke too, and for what it's worth I think he's got some decent fixtures coming up, you just need to rotate him with Rogers.

He's definitely more of a poacher for Spurs than he was at Bournemouth and was really considering getting rid before this GW.

Personally I think going for Salah is a bit overkill as his value spread out on other players is better - He mostly gets 1-2 goals-assists these days, which you can get from other players too, so not too worried about not owning him. Going for Welbeck or Joao Pedro (if fit) makes good sense after next GW. Don't see any benefit of owning Hall, except if it's only for bench-appearances. Raya's still a decent keeper to have as he gets some save points against big opponents too.
 
Sarni said:
They are terrible though. Fixtures don't matter when the team is abysmal.
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He's still got loads of points and there's apparently a good chance Lopetegui will be sacked if they lose this weekend.
 
Red Star One said:
Do you still want to sell Dom?
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ROFLUTION said:
I got Solanke too, and for what it's worth I think he's got some decent fixtures coming up, you just need to rotate him with Rogers.

He's definitely more of a poacher for Spurs than he was at Bournemouth and was really considering getting rid before this GW.

Personally I think going for Salah is a bit overkill as his value spread out on other players is better - He mostly gets 1-2 goals-assists these days, which you can get from other players too, so not too worried about not owning him. Going for Welbeck or Joao Pedro (if fit) makes good sense after next GW. Don't see any benefit of owning Hall, except if it's only for bench-appearances. Raya's still a decent keeper to have as he gets some save points against big opponents too.
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CassiusClaymore said:
Depends how badly you want Salah.
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Thanks. The plan was always to sell Solanke after Ipswich. He's good but seems to drop deep a lot.
 
ROFLUTION said:
And just disappears a lot too. Keeping him depends on the opponents for me and the overall amount of chances Spurs create.
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I think Welbeck is a better choice from GW12. Brighton are very attacking and he is always in the box. Reckon he'll outscore Solanke over that 6-7 game period.
 
Dirty Schwein said:
This week my transfer has been done (Ndiaye to Larsen).

Raya
Gabriel, TAA, Mazraoui
Mbuemo, Palmer, Semenyo, ESR
Haaland, Larsen, Solanke

Subs: Fabianski, Rogers, Andersen, Greaves

Next week I can do one of the below.

Raya, TAA, ESR & Solanke to Verbruggen, Hall, Salah & Welbeck (-4 point hit and 0.5 in the bank)

or

Raya, ESR & Solanke to Verbruggen, Saka & Welbeck (no hits & 0.5 in the bank)

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
If you have FTs you might want to keep it in the bank cause of the international break coming up. No point taking a hit one GW before the break in case there are injuries to deal with. At least keep 2 FTs and you can take -4 if things go south during the break.
 
El-Manos said:
Digne replacement ? (Cheap) have gvardiol mazroui keane
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I've started using this for ideas - https://fantasy.sortitoutsi.net/

Predicted points across a specified number of GWs for different positions. Important to factor in price vs points of course, what else you could do with the money and it depends on how long you might be planning on holding the player too.

Not to be taken as gospel, but not bad for brainstorming.

Is it any good? I don't know overall but it is the best performing completely free resource* so far when it comes to picking wildcard or team of week style predictions each week. Someone tests them on reddit as well as paid options. The thing is, that may not translate to accuracy with players at all price points as these team of week / wildcard style predictions will feature pricier players a lot more often than cheaper ones.

*FF Scout does outperform it for their team of the week predictions, and they do release that for free but you can't get all their data for every player without paying, unlike this one.

Anyway, worth a bit of a look for ideas. No surprise they have Ait Nouri as the best performing 4.7m or lower defender over the next few weeks due to his fixtures and he has been popular. I don't know if you have that much (it is Digne's current price too). Thing is it's very close between a ton of them and he is a yellow card away from suspension.

Combine it with anyone you get a hunch over looking at fixtures and your own bit of research on stats and that's how I'd use it rather than rely on it to completely make my picks. Think it's worth a look though.



Edit: Just noticed this one doing well too, actually missing a week of data from the guy compiling it all on reddit or it might be on top for the free stuff - https://fplreview.com/free-planner/ Scroll down to the projected points part. You can only go 3 weeks in advance though by the looks of it. Nifty little value filter in each position on that one.

The two of them producing quite similar results.
 
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Wondering if it might be time to leave Jimenez behind now. I was lucky to bring him in just in time for his good run of form but I feel Silva has been waiting for an excuse to restore Rodrigo to first choice, and back-to-back blanks might have done the job now - it's how Muniz got dropped, after all.

Raul has also never scored against Palace or Wolves, his next two opponents, and was particularly unthreatening yesterday, registering just 0.08xG.

Can't stretch to Cunha without a hit, but could go Wissa or Strand Larsen.
 
Does anyone understand the difference between xAG and xA on FBref?

The little explanatory tooltips that pop up don't make sense to me.

KOspe6p.png


DWeJTjn.png


So reading that I thought xAG was when you pass it someone and they shoot. That it's how likely they are to score from the shot so xG for the player shooting will be the same number as xAG for the player creating any given chance.

xA would then apply to all passes whether the player shoots or not. You could feed someone through one-on-one with the goalie but if he controls it then dwells on the ball and gets tackled you'd still get some xA. Or he could square it to a teammate for an even easier chance and you'd still get some for the original ball.

I don't think that is it though. If it were, I'd have thought every player would have way more xA than xAG. Every little pass should accumulate some xA if that were the case whether the receiver shoots or not.

As it is some players have more xAG than xA, some more xA than xAG. I don't understand it.

Palmer 4.7 xAG, 2.4 xA
Maddison 1.9 xAG, 3.6 xA
:confused:
 
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Chipper said:
Does anyone understand the difference between xAG and xA on FBref?

The little explanatory tooltips that pop up don't make sense to me.

KOspe6p.png


DWeJTjn.png


So reading that I thought xAG was when you pass it someone and they shoot. That it's how likely they are to score from the shot so xG for the player shooting will be the same number as xAG for the player creating any given chance.

xA would then apply to all passes whether the player shoots or not. You could feed someone through one-on-one with the goalie but if he controls it then dwells on the ball and gets tackled you'd still get some xA. Or he could square it to a teammate for an even easier chance and you'd still get some for the original ball.

I don't think that is it though. If it were, I'd have thought every player would have way more xA than xAG. Every little pass should accumulate some xA if that were the case whether the receiver shoots or not.

As it is some players have more xAG than xA, some more xA than xAG. I don't understand it.

Palmer 4.7 xAG, 2.4 xA
Maddison 1.9 xAG, 3.6 xA
:confused:
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This help?

https://herfootballhub.com/data-metrics-explained-expected-assists/
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
This help?

https://herfootballhub.com/data-metrics-explained-expected-assists/
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Cheers, and kind of. I think I'm slow. :lol:

Struggling with this part:
In Scenario A, a player delivers a precise through ball that sets up a one-on-one situation for the striker, resulting in a high xA value. However, if the striker fails to convert the chance, the xAG associated with that assist might be lower, since it was a more difficult opportunity to score. In Scenario B, another player provides a simple square pass to a teammate. That player then unleashes a powerful shot from a favorable position, resulting in a lower xA value. However, the xAG on that assist could be higher since it had a higher probability of resulting in a goal.
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So the xAG goes down if the player misses the one-on-one and retro-actively it's decided that a one-on-one which looked like a good chance was in fact a more difficult opportunity to score because the player misses?

I don't understand how the outcome of the shot would dictate change in anything called expected. At that point you know what's happened, either it's a goal or not so I'd have thought it's no longer an expected value, at least in my head. It's more of a known one. It's also an actual assist or not an assist for the passer and you could just look at assists?
 
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Chipper said:
Cheers, and kind of. I think I'm slow. :lol:

Struggling with this part:


So the xAG goes down if the player misses the one-on-one and retro-actively it's decided that a one-on-one which looked like a good chance was in fact a more difficult opportunity to score because the player misses?

I don't understand how the outcome of the shot would dictate change in anything called expected. At that point you know what's happened, either it's a goal or not so I'd have thought it's no longer an expected value, at least in my head. It's more of a known one. It's also an actual assist or not an assist for the passer and you could just look at assists?
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You’re asking the wrong person sorry :)

I can’t stand anything ‘modern footballish’ and spend 5 minutes picking FPL players based on who I like and who seems to have a decent fixture run.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
You’re asking the wrong person sorry :)

I can’t stand anything ‘modern footballish’ and spend 5 minutes picking FPL players based on who I like and who seems to have a decent fixture run.
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Thanks for trying anyway, appreciate it!

Time to watch United!
 
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I'm taking out TAA today if anyone wants his haul at the weekend. Happened to be with Gabriel and Palmer already so jump on those free points if you want them.
 
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