We have too few verified facts at our disposal to reach any firm conclusions as to what the real agenda was.
My take, which is as useless as anyone else's speculation, is that we were never serious about bringing in Fabregas. My support for that conclusion is that a bid of 25m was far too low of a bid to be of any interest to Barcelona. And even if the idea were to start low and work your way up, it was too low of a bid to be taken seriously. And when we raised that bid to a still absurdly low 30m, it should have been clear this was never going to happen.
Then why? You got me there. The grassy knoll conspiracy theorist in my suspect it was merely an effort by United management to set the table for settling on Fellaini. That may an unwarranted leap, but that's my leap. And take careful note that I do not suggest this necessarily makes any sense.
What makes more sense to me is putting in a serious bid for Modric, who seems more surplus to requirements to Real than Fabregas does to Barcelona. I have no idea whether Real would sell Modric at any price, but an opening bid of 40m would have been difficult to toss in the trash can.
But it could well be that Moyes as surveys the battlefield he sees the following: no way in Hades does he sell Rooney and that what he needs more than a midfielder in the mold of Fabregas and Modric is a midfielder in the mold of Fellaini. Rather than a silky passer in the last third (Fabregas and Modric) he needs a defensive midfielder who's good for the oddball goal off the cross.
Moyes knows a bit more about football than I do, so if that's his judgment then I will defer to him, sit back in my barcalounger and witness the unfolding of events as the gods proclaim.