I'm more concered about our wide areas. We need that pacy dribbler. And it's a huge drop in quality going from Martial and Micky to the others.
That's what my concern is. I don't think Jose will, or he won't until it's too late for us to win the league. If Rooney is still playing week in, week out by November, I think we can kiss goodbye to the league.
We won't defend as well as either of those teams, so it's on us to score more. I don't know if we can do it, but the pressure is also on every other team that fancies themselves for the title. This is going to be one of the most competitive league seasons ever, and I really think that every "big" team is going to concede quite a lot. If we can get our attack going and get a few of our best players in form then we have a shotI think we do.
That said, usually you need a great attack or defense to win the league(or a player spearheading your efforts like RVP in 2012-2013). I mean Chelsea in 04-05 won the league with only 72 goals. Relatively small amount of goals for a title winning side. Of course they only conceded 15.
We in 2008-2009 won with only 68 goals, but we conceded 24 and had that amazing run of games with zero goals conceded.
My concern is the number of chances we create.
The draw against Everton wasn't inspiring, I know pre-season blah blah, but the inability to break down teams who defend in numbers is scary....
Hopefully the team clicks and creates chances galore!!!
Mkhi can definitely play that role. He won't score as many as Greizmann but he'll have more assists and a decent goal return. A front three of Martial, Zlatan and Rashford supported by Mkhi and Pogba will get us 70+ goals guaranteed. Having just Carrick or Schneiderlin as a defensive midfielder can result in us conceding a few goals but we should believe that we can outscore our opponents with our quality upfront.I can see Martial, Rashford and Lingard upping their output, the biggest issue in the squad is neither of the #10's are ideal, we could use a Griezmann to play off Ibra.
I agree with with the idea that Ibra Martial and Rashford will get us goals. But I want Rashford to be developed as a striker a proper number 9.Mkhi can definitely play that role. He won't score as many as Greizmann but he'll have more assists and a decent goal return. A front three of Martial, Zlatan and Rashford supported by Mkhi and Pogba will get us 70+ goals guaranteed. Having just Carrick or Schneiderlin as a defensive midfielder can result in us conceding a few goals but we should believe that we can outscore our opponents with our quality upfront.
Agree. Just having goal scorers in the line up is not enough. You need creative players behind them to supply them with enough scoring chances. Ronaldo would not have scored 50+ goals each season if he was not assisted by players like Ozil, Di Maria, Bale, Modric, etc. Mkhi and Pogba can be the creative outlets in our team. We should play Mkhi as No.10 instead of Rooney and play Rashford on the wing. This way, we'll have a good balance of goal scorers and creative players to break down any team.I'll never get that argument about enough or not enough 'goals in our squad'.
Fottball is not math and even if it were, it's not just an addition of individuals.
If our team plays fluid and direct, dominating in attack, goals will come from everywhere. Is Memphis a 5 goal or a 12 goal winger? Mkhitaryan can score 3 or 15, how would we know? Well, totally depends on our team. Same for pretty much everyone. Zlatan has kind of a goal guarantee as had Rooney back then, but you can't just add goalscorers and expect them to each score a ton.
RVP-Falcao
Rooney
was your typical 'lots of goals in that attack' type of formation but oh boy....
Yes, Rashford's future is definitely as a CF. But at his age, playing for sometime on the wing shouldn't affect his development too much. With Zlatan dropping deep often, he'll have plenty of chances to get into good scoring positions. I would be worried only if he is forced to stick to the wing. If the front 3 are afforded the freedom by the manager to drift freely, then he'll be the perfect player to have on the wing. Anyway, Zlatan at his age won't be starting all games, so he'll still get plenty of games as a CF.I agree with with the idea that Ibra Martial and Rashford will get us goals. But I want Rashford to be developed as a striker a proper number 9.
Sure Rashford can come on a in a few games and occupy that wing spot to add pace and width, but I don't want that to be his main role this season.
THIS !!!Im pretty sure the team from the first half would have scored eventually in a normal game.
Mkhi can definitely play that role. He won't score as many as Greizmann but he'll have more assists and a decent goal return. A front three of Martial, Zlatan and Rashford supported by Mkhi and Pogba will get us 70+ goals guaranteed. Having just Carrick or Schneiderlin as a defensive midfielder can result in us conceding a few goals but we should believe that we can outscore our opponents with our quality upfront.
The 70 goal mark is for the whole team not just the front five. But yes it does depend on how fast Pogba and Mkhi adapt. Rashford will most likely play as a backup to Zlatan but this formation could be tried out in a few games to see how it works.Even being optimistic I would say 60 goals would be an achievement for that front 5 and I honestly don't see Rashford playing as a starter this season. I also think we need to see how Micki settles as it's taken him time previously and Pogba will be playing deeper than he played for Juve.
For the attack, my worry would be Rooney. He's not really good as outright #10. He is more of second forward. Then Rooney is very indisciplined in his style that he may step into Zlatan's foot. Other than that, IMO we can do well without Rooney with our personnels up front.
I am more worry about the defense. We ditch LVG possession based defense method so we need to defend properly. the DM role after these years, now has become our weakness. Carrick is on the decline. Schneiderlin is not suited for holding role. He wants to roam/ hunting for action. Herrera and Fellaini don't give me confidence as holding midfielders. Bastian had terrible season and likely on the way out.
We lack a leader in the heart of defense. Bailly is young and new to the league. Smalling simply does well on his own but can lead others. Then not too convinced with Valencia as our starting RB (as back up would be very good option). Then the annual injury curse. Smalling is the current victim. The rotational option is suspect and unreliable: Jones (crock), Rojo (pointless), Blind (lack physicality and not a natural CB)
The 70 goal mark is for the whole team not just the front five. But yes it does depend on how fast Pogba and Mkhi adapt. Rashford will most likely play as a backup to Zlatan but this formation could be tried out in a few games to see how it works.
Of course, I am in no way suggesting that we are favourites to the title. We are still a work in progress. But as far as I can tell, none of the other teams are clear favourites either. Pretty hard to guess how this season will turn out for us as well as our rivals.Don't get me wrong, I think we are building towards an excellent team, I just feel we will end up a couple of pieces short of a title win.
I can't help wondering that a right sided forward position could me Rashfords best position. Still too early to tell. If Micky makes that position his own then Marcus will be schooled by Zlatan on the art of being a centre forward. If Micky struggles to adapt then Marcus could be used and whilst I think he'll make a great number nine, he's so good that he'll adapt and make that wide position his own. He's the guy I'm most excited about this season.I agree with with the idea that Ibra Martial and Rashford will get us goals. But I want Rashford to be developed as a striker a proper number 9.
Sure Rashford can come on a in a few games and occupy that wing spot to add pace and width, but I don't want that to be his main role this season.
I'd argue the following for league only:
Zlatan 15-22 (18.5)
Rooney 10-16 (13)
Martial 8-15 (11.5)
Rashford 8-15 (11.5)
Mkhitaryan 5-8(6.5)
Mata 3-7 (5)
Pogba 3-7 (5)
Lingard 2-5 (3.5)
Depay 1-3 (2)
Herrera 1-3 (2)
Fellaini 1-3 (2)
Valencia 0-2 (1)
Shaw 0-1 (0.5)
Carrick 0-1 (0.5)
Schneiderlin 0-1 (0.5)
Smalling 0-1 (0.5)
Blind 0
Bailly 0
Young 0
Jones 0
Darmian 0
Rojo 0
De Gea 0
Minimum Potential Goal Return: 57
Maximum Potential Goal Return: 110
Median Potential Goal Return: 83.5
5 Season League Goals AVG: 70
Average Expected Goal Return: 76.75
(Med Pot + 5slg)/2
+/- 5% Variance
Min Expected Goal Return: 72.9125
((83.5+ (70)/2)*0.95
Max Expected Goal Return: 80.5875
((83.5+ (70)/2)*1.05
(5 year AVG = (89+86+64+62+49)/5) =70
Final Expected Goal Return: 77 goals (+/-4 goals)
Justification:
I fully expect people to swoop in "that's pointless why bother" but I genuinely believe that looking at the trends in the PL, the players and United that 72-81 is a reasonable estimation.
Now obviously the above is only an estimate however I am very confident in it as a prediction as it takes into account the profile of each player, their general goalscoring ability and a likely min and max for each. I have also tried to factor in error of judgement (by including basic 5% error to totals) which is high enough to matter but low enough to make this a purposeful prediction. Allowing too much wiggle room for myself would not be in the spirit of things.
I would particularly endorse the min expected goal return as I am always a pessimist when it comes to predictions.
Edit: I forgot to say that yes, based on what I predict it is entirely possible for us to produce a league winning amount of goals.
If there was demand I would do the same for other PL clubs to show where we might stand.