It's pretty simple, really. Drop Rooney, play a 4-3-3, and allow Pogba to play in his favoured left-sided 8 position in that formation.
Even with Pogba, are there enough goals in squad to challenge for the league?
- Thread starter Fortitude
- Start date
If Zlatan and Rooney keep dropping back like they did yesterday leaving no-one in the box, then Mourinho has got big problems.
Rooney Rant:
Managers have put their eggs into the Rooney basket and got fired.
Hodgson.
LVG.
Moyes (in fairness, in Moyes' season, Rooney was one of our best players).
I'm actually at the point where I just want Rooney gone. I don't care if he scores 10 league goals (which is pitiful, IMO, but last season he scored an embarrassingly low 8 league goals).
The excuses of "Rooney was not played as No.9, so that's why his goal tally is low", does not wash with me. Rooney is a striker and he has to impress his manager (just as he did when he was 18 yrs old) that he can score many goals.
Or how about the other favourite: "Rooney needs 15 games to play himself into form".
20 league goals in the last 2 seasons. For comparison, Kane score scored 46 in the same period.
Last season he was the 26th highest goal scorer in the EPL.
The problem we have is that we can't even offload him to another EPL side, because he isn't good enough to play as striker. He isn't even a midfielder.
Which club in the right mind would want to pay any money, for the 26th best striker in the EPL, who is getting worse every season?
Hodgson.
LVG.
Moyes (in fairness, in Moyes' season, Rooney was one of our best players).
I'm actually at the point where I just want Rooney gone. I don't care if he scores 10 league goals (which is pitiful, IMO, but last season he scored an embarrassingly low 8 league goals).
The excuses of "Rooney was not played as No.9, so that's why his goal tally is low", does not wash with me. Rooney is a striker and he has to impress his manager (just as he did when he was 18 yrs old) that he can score many goals.
Or how about the other favourite: "Rooney needs 15 games to play himself into form".
20 league goals in the last 2 seasons. For comparison, Kane score scored 46 in the same period.
Last season he was the 26th highest goal scorer in the EPL.
The problem we have is that we can't even offload him to another EPL side, because he isn't good enough to play as striker. He isn't even a midfielder.
Which club in the right mind would want to pay any money, for the 26th best striker in the EPL, who is getting worse every season?
With regards to total goals scored, the OP forgot Rashford, who IMO, is our 3rd best striker behind Ibra and Martial.
If we can bench Rooney, we'll be fine.
Rooney should be dropped for 433, and play herrera and pogba has the advanced midfielders, think a few of us will have our hair ripped out every time we see season 4 of garbage from rooney
That's what my concern is. I don't think Jose will, or he won't until it's too late for us to win the league. If Rooney is still playing week in, week out by November, I think we can kiss goodbye to the league.
Yep, exactly. But like I said in the previous post, I don't think Jose will do it until it's too late for us. He's planned on playing a 4-2-3-1 all summer and it was probably with Rooney in mind.
Yeah its frustrating, we have a 30 going on 31 striker, and a 34 year old striker going on 35, its RVP and rooney all over again. I am hoping mourinho will learn what is best for the team, and not VG all over again. Zlaten I feel will offer us more things, but its rooney that will let zlaten down, with his lack of energy, pace and technical ability will be a problem
--------------Zlatan/Rashford----------
Martial----------Rooney--------MKkofjogroign
-----------Pogba-----------------------
-----------------------Carrick----------
Rooney is the clear weak link, as is Carrick.
I'd like to see Pogba pushed up in to Rooney's position, and we could still do with 2 CMs (will it ever end?).
We could of course make do for now, but we're weak defensively with any of our options for that Carrick position.
Martial----------Rooney--------MKkofjogroign
-----------Pogba-----------------------
-----------------------Carrick----------
Rooney is the clear weak link, as is Carrick.
I'd like to see Pogba pushed up in to Rooney's position, and we could still do with 2 CMs (will it ever end?).
We could of course make do for now, but we're weak defensively with any of our options for that Carrick position.
- Joined
- Sep 1, 2015
- Messages
- 18,225
- Supports
️
I'd argue the following for league only:
Zlatan 15-22 (18.5)
Rooney 10-16 (13)
Martial 8-15 (11.5)
Rashford 8-15 (11.5)
Mkhitaryan 5-8(6.5)
Mata 3-7 (5)
Pogba 3-7 (5)
Lingard 2-5 (3.5)
Depay 1-3 (2)
Herrera 1-3 (2)
Fellaini 1-3 (2)
Valencia 0-2 (1)
Shaw 0-1 (0.5)
Carrick 0-1 (0.5)
Schneiderlin 0-1 (0.5)
Smalling 0-1 (0.5)
Blind 0
Bailly 0
Young 0
Jones 0
Darmian 0
Rojo 0
De Gea 0
Minimum Potential Goal Return: 57
Maximum Potential Goal Return: 110
Median Potential Goal Return: 83.5
5 Season League Goals AVG: 70
Average Expected Goal Return: 76.75
(Med Pot + 5slg)/2
+/- 5% Variance
Min Expected Goal Return: 72.9125
((83.5+ (70)/2)*0.95
Max Expected Goal Return: 80.5875
((83.5+ (70)/2)*1.05
(5 year AVG = (89+86+64+62+49)/5) =70
Final Expected Goal Return: 77 goals (+/-4 goals)
Justification:
I fully expect people to swoop in "that's pointless why bother" but I genuinely believe that looking at the trends in the PL, the players and United that 72-81 is a reasonable estimation.
Now obviously the above is only an estimate however I am very confident in it as a prediction as it takes into account the profile of each player, their general goalscoring ability and a likely min and max for each. I have also tried to factor in error of judgement (by including basic 5% error to totals) which is high enough to matter but low enough to make this a purposeful prediction. Allowing too much wiggle room for myself would not be in the spirit of things.
I would particularly endorse the min expected goal return as I am always a pessimist when it comes to predictions.
Edit: I forgot to say that yes, based on what I predict it is entirely possible for us to produce a league winning amount of goals.
If there was demand I would do the same for other PL clubs to show where we might stand.
Zlatan 15-22 (18.5)
Rooney 10-16 (13)
Martial 8-15 (11.5)
Rashford 8-15 (11.5)
Mkhitaryan 5-8(6.5)
Mata 3-7 (5)
Pogba 3-7 (5)
Lingard 2-5 (3.5)
Depay 1-3 (2)
Herrera 1-3 (2)
Fellaini 1-3 (2)
Valencia 0-2 (1)
Shaw 0-1 (0.5)
Carrick 0-1 (0.5)
Schneiderlin 0-1 (0.5)
Smalling 0-1 (0.5)
Blind 0
Bailly 0
Young 0
Jones 0
Darmian 0
Rojo 0
De Gea 0
Minimum Potential Goal Return: 57
Maximum Potential Goal Return: 110
Median Potential Goal Return: 83.5
5 Season League Goals AVG: 70
Average Expected Goal Return: 76.75
(Med Pot + 5slg)/2
+/- 5% Variance
Min Expected Goal Return: 72.9125
((83.5+ (70)/2)*0.95
Max Expected Goal Return: 80.5875
((83.5+ (70)/2)*1.05
(5 year AVG = (89+86+64+62+49)/5) =70
Final Expected Goal Return: 77 goals (+/-4 goals)
Justification:
I fully expect people to swoop in "that's pointless why bother" but I genuinely believe that looking at the trends in the PL, the players and United that 72-81 is a reasonable estimation.
Now obviously the above is only an estimate however I am very confident in it as a prediction as it takes into account the profile of each player, their general goalscoring ability and a likely min and max for each. I have also tried to factor in error of judgement (by including basic 5% error to totals) which is high enough to matter but low enough to make this a purposeful prediction. Allowing too much wiggle room for myself would not be in the spirit of things.
I would particularly endorse the min expected goal return as I am always a pessimist when it comes to predictions.
Edit: I forgot to say that yes, based on what I predict it is entirely possible for us to produce a league winning amount of goals.
If there was demand I would do the same for other PL clubs to show where we might stand.
If Morgan and herrera could do those 2 positions, which would be a huge help this season, even then its a doubt. So yea I agree even with Pogba, we need a new anchor man, and a midfielder who could dictate play so pogba can have that freedom, so yeah carrick and rooney need to be replaced if we really are going to go the next level. Hopefully summer 2017 we will sign those 2 CM players, to go alongside pogba
I think it should be but I worry there is a big gulf in class between the 1st 11 and the rest of the squad. The first 11 looks solid but take out zlatan and we have an inexperienced youth player (yes he is good but an experienced squady would be helpful)
Take out mikki and the right wing is truly awful, there is no one that does what Carrick can do, it's a shame lingard or depay arent a little better, not world class jist like Nani level and capable of some how getting 8+ goals and assists whilst never being in the first team
Take out mikki and the right wing is truly awful, there is no one that does what Carrick can do, it's a shame lingard or depay arent a little better, not world class jist like Nani level and capable of some how getting 8+ goals and assists whilst never being in the first team
Cant do any worse than previous seasons, we've added better quality to the team.
One big gripe i had last season though with regard to goal scoring, and something i hope has been worked on, is Chris Smalling. Seemed like every game last season he was putting easy chances wide at set pieces. He was actually getting a tonne of easy headed chances and blazing wide or over. Put Vidic or someone in Smalling's place last season and he would have 10+ goals. Get Smalling doing abit of work on finishing those chances and we bump our stats up a massive amount almost instantly.
One big gripe i had last season though with regard to goal scoring, and something i hope has been worked on, is Chris Smalling. Seemed like every game last season he was putting easy chances wide at set pieces. He was actually getting a tonne of easy headed chances and blazing wide or over. Put Vidic or someone in Smalling's place last season and he would have 10+ goals. Get Smalling doing abit of work on finishing those chances and we bump our stats up a massive amount almost instantly.
bailley looks a beast in the air and if we sign fabinho he'll be a threat from defense, i agree smalling should be doing better
God, I can't wait for this saga to be over. The obsession with getting to a thousand pages in the Pogba thread is the dullest thing I think I've ever seen on the Caf. That thread is 200 pages of quality, and 800 pages of circular arguments and people saying "omg, let's get to a 1,000 pages fellow muppets!!!".
You're using the numbers of last year's squad players when they were playing negative and miserable football under a philosophical tyrrant.
I expect all of last year's squad members to better their goal tally this year.
I expect all of last year's squad members to better their goal tally this year.
Last edited:
I think we can score in the range of 72-78 goals this season
Ibra + Rooney + Martial + Rashford (15+11+12+7) = 45
Mata + Mkhi + Memphis + Pogba (5 + 8 + 4 + 6) = 23
Other Players = 7 to 9
Total comes out to around 75 to 77 goals
If some one like Martial, Rashford or even Memphis steps up, we could even have more goals.
Guys, we have improved our Attack and Midfield quite a bit (considering Pogba is on his way here)
Martial or Rashford can learn a great deal from Zlatan this season.
Ibra + Rooney + Martial + Rashford (15+11+12+7) = 45
Mata + Mkhi + Memphis + Pogba (5 + 8 + 4 + 6) = 23
Other Players = 7 to 9
Total comes out to around 75 to 77 goals
If some one like Martial, Rashford or even Memphis steps up, we could even have more goals.
Guys, we have improved our Attack and Midfield quite a bit (considering Pogba is on his way here)
Martial or Rashford can learn a great deal from Zlatan this season.
I wouldn't have thought so.
it depends on Mourinho.....
I wonder how long it will take him to realise that Rooney isn't worthy of a first team place
Even last night when Rooney was half-decent it became apparent that Ibra dropping back into Rooney territory means we could end up with a cluttered midfield and a lack of cutting edge
I'd like to see
------------------------Rashford------------------------
Martial------------------Ibra---------------------Mhiki
----------------Pogba--------------Carrick---------------
or
-------------------------Ibra-----------------------------
Martial---------------------------------------------Mhiki
----------------Pogba-----------Herrera----------------
------------------------Carrick--------------------------
I think both these sides have a better balance than Ibra and Rooney together and Pogba is better in a 3
I wonder how long it will take him to realise that Rooney isn't worthy of a first team place
Even last night when Rooney was half-decent it became apparent that Ibra dropping back into Rooney territory means we could end up with a cluttered midfield and a lack of cutting edge
I'd like to see
------------------------Rashford------------------------
Martial------------------Ibra---------------------Mhiki
----------------Pogba--------------Carrick---------------
or
-------------------------Ibra-----------------------------
Martial---------------------------------------------Mhiki
----------------Pogba-----------Herrera----------------
------------------------Carrick--------------------------
I think both these sides have a better balance than Ibra and Rooney together and Pogba is better in a 3
I get to 99 with Ibra - 20, Martial - 17, Rashford - 10, Mkhi - 10, Pogba - 8, Mata - 7, Fellaini - 7, Rooney - 6, Memphis - 5, Herrera - 4, Young/Valencia/Shaw/Darmian - 5
That's probably too much but I think 90-100 is a fair target assuming everyone stays healthy. Might seem high but I think there will be more focus on running up scores when possible. When we've lost a title and a CL spot both to GD, it would criminal to sit back and not go for more.
That's probably too much but I think 90-100 is a fair target assuming everyone stays healthy. Might seem high but I think there will be more focus on running up scores when possible. When we've lost a title and a CL spot both to GD, it would criminal to sit back and not go for more.
- Joined
- Sep 1, 2015
- Messages
- 18,225
- Supports
- ️
Regardless of what you think about Rooney he has consistently scored in the league. I would be amazed if under Mourinho ,with players like Rashford, Martial, Ibra and Mkhitaryan dribbling about the place, we didn't get a fair few penalties that rightly or wrongly Rooney will take and likely score. That's got to be worth IMO at least 2 goals which means he just needs 8 from open play operating as a No 10 in that kind of side.
All it takes is a brace in one game and boom he's nearly halfway to that target.
Last season was the only season he has scored less than 10 goals and he was playing CM for a significant portion of it.
As much as I dislike him for the whole contract saga, and for not being anywhere near as entertaining to watch as his younger self, I don't see how Rooney won't hit 10 or more this season.
- Joined
- Sep 1, 2015
- Messages
- 18,225
- Supports
- ️
90-100 is far too much. You would literally have to have every player performing to pretty much their maximum in each game they played including our squad players.
The way I think it through is a first team player should really be getting 32 plus starts in the league (fitness permitting) so based on that think about what statistically would you expect that player to average in terms of goals to games.
I know my max estimate came out at 112 but we all know that can't happen hence why I adjusted for that outlier.
In order to get an 80+ goal season you need at least 2 strikers to be in absolute hot form which I think is too much to ask of youngsters like Rashford and Martial (who will be winging it again). That in itself will be challenging.
73-81 (expecting us to do well this season and at least get 3rd or 2nd)
Schweinsteiger scored 1 against Leicester, or even two if you want to give him the Watford equaliser.
People shouldn't forget OG, who is probably good for 5-7 as well.
In the last 3 seasons only 4 teams (Man City twice, Liv and Chelsea) have scored more than 71 goals. No side managed it last season.
During Mourinho's most recent 3 (2 and a bit) seasons at Chelsea, they scored 71, 73 and 18 in 16 games for an overall average of 67 goals per season.
You will come up with far more realistic numbers if you start by allocating the 38 games x 11 starters then work out how many goals the player would score in that amount of playing time.
So for instance, if Zlatan is starting 28 games and Rooney 30 starts, that might leave Rashford with 15 starts and almost 0 for Mata if he is still around. Hard for Mata to score many if he is restricted to the occasional sub appearance.
I expect United to score in the mid to high 60s, assuming Mourinho's first choice attack is Zlatan + Rooney, with Martial and Mkhitaryan wide.
Rooney has been at United for 12 seasons. In 7 of those seasons he scored 12 or less in the PL.
With Zlatan, you either believe he has become a truly astonishing player at PSG or that Ligue 1 is a relatively easy league to score in if you happen to play for the dominant team. I tend towards the 2nd view.
To answer the OP, I suspect our problem is more team selection rather than a squad issue.
Last edited:
I feel Rooney will get subbed a lot for Rashford. I see Ibra dropping to number 10 with Rashford up top in the last 10/15 mins of most games.
Do you? We scored 86 in 12/13. RVP scored 26 but the next highest scorer was Rooney on 12 and Hernandez on 10.
Do you? We scored 86 in 12/13. RVP scored 26 but the next highest scorer was Rooney on 12 and Hernandez on 10.
In that season, Hernandez's goals per 90 mins record was superior to RVP's. It it totally unrealistic to expect a sub to come off the bench and rescue you again and again.
Jose's team in the PL on avg scored around 70 goals.
Last season we scored 49. So the difference is ~20
Doing some plus-minus, we've more than 20 goals there.
The worry for me is whether we'll be able to defend like a Jose team. His teams even when they're up by a goal used to be very comfortable defending that lead. Our league position will be determined on how well we do this part of the game. We won't be scoring goals for fun.
Last season we scored 49. So the difference is ~20
- Our playing style will be different and we'll be more direct. We'll attack smaller teams more if Jose's past record is anything to go by. So a change of playing style should add about 10 extra goals.
- We now have a fixed ST in Ibra (and Rashford). Last season Rooney's shambolic performances crippled the whole team performances as well. So this should add another 5~8 goals.
- We got only a few goals from our MFs. If we sign Pogba and with Mkhi being already here, this should give us another 10 goals.
Doing some plus-minus, we've more than 20 goals there.
The worry for me is whether we'll be able to defend like a Jose team. His teams even when they're up by a goal used to be very comfortable defending that lead. Our league position will be determined on how well we do this part of the game. We won't be scoring goals for fun.
Wasnt saying that, was pointing out that you dont need 2 strikers in absolute hot form to score 80+.
Fair enough. Now that I think about it, 90-100 (and those related individual estimates) is probably a better estimate for all comps. The PL is not a league where 100 goals can come very easily and Mourinho will be more practical.
Good thread.
Last season was dreadful for goals (amongst other things). I know Jose isn't exactly an attack minded coach but I expect vast improvement on what van Gaal served up. Being a bit lazy here so not bothering to type out squad members and expected returns, but looking at what other posters have put up I'd agree that 70-odd goals should be a realistic target and I expect that will be enough to propel us into the champions league places as a minimum.
Last season was dreadful for goals (amongst other things). I know Jose isn't exactly an attack minded coach but I expect vast improvement on what van Gaal served up. Being a bit lazy here so not bothering to type out squad members and expected returns, but looking at what other posters have put up I'd agree that 70-odd goals should be a realistic target and I expect that will be enough to propel us into the champions league places as a minimum.
If our style of play changes, then yes. However, if we continue to try and go through the middle every time we attack, then it will be very hard to score goals.
I think we could do with another goalscorer. I think Mane would have been a pretty good option but we always have Rashford and hopefully he is as prolific as he was last season. Yes, we do and can win the league but we need to gel. We need the likes of Lingard, Depay especially to be productive players. We should forget the last two years certainly. The lack of goals was because of how we played. It's an insult to people to go a number of games - not score in however many first halves...and go...gee I wonder what the problem is. I think everyone saw what the problem was. So if we are strong at the back then we can take it from there. I tend to think out wide, we'd probably be too reliant on Martial. Micky doesn't really offer a similar threat and looks to be someone who would be better suited centrally.
If Pogba joins we have one of the best attacks in the league IMO, If our morale is good and Miki and Pogba provide great service then the skys the limit, Lets not forget Rashford if given game time will bag double figures IMO.
Have we more goals in us than Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs? I think so, Have City got a better attack? No not IMO, not much between them Us and Chelsea
We are going to give this one hell of go this season
Have we more goals in us than Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs? I think so, Have City got a better attack? No not IMO, not much between them Us and Chelsea
We are going to give this one hell of go this season
- Joined
- Sep 1, 2015
- Messages
- 18,225
- Supports
- ️
I am working on the basis that the figures I set out above are at a minimum fair for many of the players and at a maximum only slightly ambitious.
As you point out Mourinho has a good record in the PL for hitting above 70 goals and I would argue our current attacking options are superior to those of his most recent title winning Chelsea squad. I believe 72-81 is achievable though as I said I always tend towards the lower scale of estimates.
I don't feel you have to allocate games perfectly for the estimate which is why I have essentially done that without explicitly saying Ibra will start most and Rashford will make sub appearances etc. I feel the high low estimate adequately takes this into consideration but if I had more time your system would likely provide a clearer understanding as to why we each player might get that return.
It's incredibly unfair to base Rooney's achievements on scoring 12 or less in the PL. Arguing in 7 seasons he dropped equal to or below 12 goals in the league isn't really fair critique.
It doesn't consider that he has played CM in the most recent sub 12 season (15/16), was pushed out of striker by Ronaldo and others in 07/08 (also least amount of APPs) and 08/09. He got 11 goals in his debut year at United (aged 18 where he also bagged the goals in Europe), 12 in the season he was placed behind RVP by Fergie 12/13, 12 under LVG in his first season (a miracle anyone scored then!) and the 10/11 season which I won't argue against as being unreasonably poor.
So by my checking there is one season where I would have reasonably expected Rooney to exceed 12 goals in 10/11 where he failed to do so (by 2 goals).
I thought Zlatan was an astonishing player before PSG tbf but despite it being a weaker league I still don't see how anyone can argue 38 goals in the league wasn't a monumental achievement (plus his CL goals) otherwise other strikers worth their salt would be hitting at least 25+ regularly there.
My initial low estimate had a 10% error to it and worked out around 69 goals for what it's worth.
Having considered this I will concede that yes you can achieve this with one in outstanding form and 2 doing well but that generally speaking you need two forwards in excellent form/ exceeding expectations to hit those kinds of numbers.
Most sides in the PL don't have the luxury of 2/3 quality strikers like we have had over the years.
There will always be exceptions to the rule but every season we have got 80+ goals we've had the following as top scorers in the league.
93/94 80 Eric C 18, Giggs 13, Hughes 12
98/99 80 Yorke 18, Cole 17, Solskjaer 12
99/00 97 Yorke 20, Cole 19, Solskjaer 12
01/02 87 RVN 23, Solskjaer 17, Becks 11
06/07 83 C.Ron 17, Rooney 14, Saha 8
07/08 80 C.Ron 31, Tevez 14, Rooney 12
09/10 86 Rooney 26, Berba 12, OG 10
11/12 89 Rooney 27, Chica 10, D.Wel 9
12/13 86 RVP 26, Rooney 12, Chica 10
I would argue that out of the 9 seasons (PL history) 4 are comfortably in the remit of 2 forward players having outstanding seasons (93/94, 98/99, 99/00, 01/02).
I would argue 2 seasons are still in that bracket (06/07 and 07/08) though not as comfortably.
I would concede that the 3 most recent 80+ goal seasons at United we have had 1 outstanding forward and two players (or OG own goals) having good seasons.
I would therefore agree you can perform this with 1 main man and two supporting but that I would argue it is more likely that a high scoring season will occur if you have 2 outstanding forwards rather than 1 and 2 supporting.
Either way I believe it shows that we actually have a very good set of strikers/goal scorers to take us into next season and I am confident of my 73-81 (77) prediction.
If Martial and Rashford are used properly I can see them both getting 13+ league goals. I expect both and Ibra to score 20+ for the season in all comps.
If we play 433 the left side of our team with shaw pogba and martial could be pretty damn exciting.
No chance. Martial adapted as well as you're likely to see anyone, and he got 11 in the league; 17 in all comps. Martial is clinical (some might say striker is his best position), Mkhi is not. As someone else said, he missed a tonne of chances last season for Dortmund, and his main job will be providing assists.
A 0-0 didn't help huh?
My concern is the number of chances we create.
The draw against Everton wasn't inspiring, I know pre-season blah blah, but the inability to break down teams who defend in numbers is scary....
Hopefully the team clicks and creates chances galore!!!
The draw against Everton wasn't inspiring, I know pre-season blah blah, but the inability to break down teams who defend in numbers is scary....
Hopefully the team clicks and creates chances galore!!!