Putting aside the fact that Brussels is a lobbyists paradise, i should imagine that there is a goodly dose of 'better the devil you know' at play here.
EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
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Putting aside the fact that Brussels is a lobbyists paradise, i should imagine that there is a goodly dose of 'better the devil you know' at play here.
Farage showing Leave how to do it this morning. Concentrate on immigration, numbers, border controls, security, crime, services, social cohesion, wage depression, fear of Turkey, fear of young muslim men like the ones in Cologne and so on. Keep the debate away from trade as much as possible, that one's unwinnable.
surely anything with him championing it is a sure reason to vote for the opposite
It's pure fiction to believe that a Brexit will lead to a *positive effect on items such as immigration, numbers, border controls, security, services, crime and wage depression!
*Assuming that what Farage regards as 'positive' is different from what I personally regard as 'positive'. But that's another matter all together.
British expats lose legal battle for right to vote in EU referendum
It is not particularly winnable for Remain either, that is why two major economic reports have resorted to wilful distortion and the use of worst-case scenarios to prove their point. People might do well to follow Alex Salmond's advice from QT last night, and ignore the far-reaching projections of both sides of the argument. The European Union has evolved significantly as the years have passed, does the organisation of 2016 continue to hold their trust? Would they agree to join it now, were they a citizen of a country on the outside?
Personally speaking, I do think it is worth bearing in mind that the UK and the EU would enter into as negotiations as known quantities, therefore the basis for any deal shouldn't too be difficult to come by. The extent of concessions is where the tug of war shall take place, and whether Britain pays a reduced membership fee for its narrower relationship with Brussels.
It is not particularly winnable for Remain either, that is why two major economic reports have resorted to wilful distortion and the use of worst-case scenarios to prove their point. People might do well to follow Alex Salmond's advice from QT last night, and ignore the far-reaching projections of both sides of the argument. The European Union has evolved significantly as the years have passed, does the organisation of 2016 continue to hold their trust? Would they agree to join it now, were they a citizen of a country on the outside?
Personally speaking, I do think it is worth bearing in mind that the UK and the EU would enter into as negotiations as known quantities, therefore the basis for any deal shouldn't too be difficult to come by. The extent of concessions is where the tug of war shall take place, and whether Britain pays a reduced membership fee for its narrower relationship with Brussels.
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I reckon Lobbyists have a harder time in Brussels then the UK, the sheer numbers of people, the multiple languages, and the intersect of national and international politics would make it harder for them in the EU
why is immigration such a big issue? In my recent experience every hotel job, every café job, every bar job and any other average paid job in London is already being done by someone from the eastern block. Most of the staff in my office are from the eastern block and they are highly paid.
Services, social cohesion and wage stagnation are good points to concentrate on but they will always be crap in the uk whether in or out of the eu. As I've said in other threads, I feel like I have gone back in time when I go home for a visit.
Or to another country maybe?
However I wasn't putting my personal views forward, rather suggesting topics that would be the best ones for Leave to concentrate on in order to win, and ones that would be more effective for them than endlessly discussing trade.
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Just discussing the benefits of leaving would be enough, we already know what its like to stay in
Where has this line come from, that people are claiming Brexit is going to turn the UK into North Korea? I've seen it a few times on here now, best straw man I've seen in ages.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36168487
Here you go as an example.
John Minor, total tosspot
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/01/leaked-ttip-documents-cast-doubt-on-eu-us-trade-deal
Leaked TTIP documents cast doubt on EU-US trade deal
Greenpeace says internal documents show US attempts to lower or circumvent EU protection for environment and public health
Leaked TTIP documents cast doubt on EU-US trade deal
Greenpeace says internal documents show US attempts to lower or circumvent EU protection for environment and public health
It'll be passed eventually, with all of the unpopular bits rebranded to something more superficially pleasing.
And from the FT:
Germany to push for progress towards European army
By Alex Barker in Brussels and Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin
Germany is to push for progress towards a European army by advocating a joint headquarters and shared military assets, according to defence plans that could ricochet into Britain’s EU referendum campaign.
Although Berlin has long paid lip-service to forming a “European defence union”, the white paper is one of the most significant for Germany in recent years and may be seized by anti-integration Brexit campaigners as a sign where the bloc is heading.
Initially scheduled to emerge shortly before the June 23 referendum vote but now probably delayed to July, the draft paper seen by the Financial Times outlines steps to gradually co-ordinate Europe’s patchwork of national militaries and embark on permanent co-operation under common structures.
In this and other areas, its tone reflects Germany’s growing clout and confidence in pursuing a foreign policy backed by elements of hard power. Initiatives range from strengthening cyberwarfare abilities to contentious proposals to relax the postwar restrictions on army operations within Germany.
“German security policy has relevance — also far beyond our country,” the paper states. “Germany is willing to join early, decisively and substantially as a driving force in international debates . . . to take responsibility and assume leadership”.
Jan Techau, a former defence official at Carnegie Europe, said: “This is the time of a new Germany. This is probably the first time a German defence white paper is something like important.”
At the European level, the paper calls for “the use of all possibilities” available under EU treaties to establish deep co-operation between willing member states, create a joint civil-military headquarters for EU operations, a council of defence ministers, and better co-ordinate the production and sharing of military equipment.
“The more we Europeans are ready to take on a greater share of the common burden and the more our American partner is prepared to go along the road of common decision-making, the further the transatlantic security partnership will develop greater intensity and richer results,” the paper states.
"The creation of a European army is a long way off, but it is a strategic necessity to implement important steps to pave the way towards it now" - Roderich Kiesewetter, Bundestag member
Resistance to serious defence integration is well entrenched in many EU states and has hobbled efforts to make meaningful progress in common defence. Co-ordinated hard military power in Europe remains largely the preserve of Nato.
However, about 37 EU security missions have been launched since 2003, including recent operations in Mali and against piracy. If vigorously pursued in Brussels, Germany’s call for joint civil military headquarters would be an important step in enhancing the bloc’s capabilities and ambitions.
“The creation of a European army is a long way off, but it is a strategic necessity to implement important steps to pave the way towards it now,” wrote Roderich Kiesewetter, a Bundestag foreign affairs committee member, in a recent paper.
Berlin is aware that its call for more European defence — long a bugbear of British Eurosceptics — could inadvertently resonate in the UK referendum campaign. Although publication was first expected in early June, this has been delayed to July, according to people familiar with the process.
"Their every instinct is to move towards European defence co-operation. The problem is that while they are unwilling to spend money, it is a dangerous fantasy that diverts money away from Nato" - Liam Fox, former UK defence secretary and Brexit supporter
Liam Fox, former UK defence secretary and Brexit supporter, said that “many in the European project see Nato as an impediment to ever closer union”.
Mr Fox added: “Their every instinct is to move towards European defence co-operation. The problem is that while they are unwilling to spend money, it is a dangerous fantasy that diverts money away from Nato.”
The paper says that the EU’s defence industry is “organised nationally and seriously fragmented”, raising costs, handicapping it in international competition and making it difficult for national militaries to operate together.
“It is therefore necessary that military capabilities are jointly planned, developed, managed, procured and deployed to raise the interoperability of Europe’s defence forces and to further improve Europe’s capacity to act,” the paper states.
However it adds this should not impinge Germany’s “own technological sovereignty” over crucial technologies. It comes against the backdrop of a series of embarrassing equipment failures in recent years when Germany deployed its military overseas.
The white paper also lands in the middle of the growing debate in Germany about whether the military should be deployed domestically in the event of terrorist attacks and other threats to law and order.
While German troops already assist in civil emergencies, such as floods, and have helped in the refugee crisis, deployments to deal with violence or threats of violence have long been banned for fear of evoking Nazi-era practices. The draft proposes ending that ban given “the character and dynamic of current and future security-political threats”.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e90a080e-107b-11e6-91da-096d89bd2173.html#axzz47ZzyQnhD
Remain is inextricably linked to proposals such as these, nor is it the only controversial issue to be pushed back until after the referendum result.
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Sterling Euro exchange rates made positive gains for most of April but finished the final day in a negative direction following much better than expected Eurozone GDP data.
With the economic data confirming growth for the Eurozone at 0.6% compared to the expectation of 0.4% this helped to strengthen the Euro vs the Pound.
This demonstrated that things might not be as bad in the Eurozone as previously thought and with just less than 2 months to go before the UK votes whether or not to stay in the European Union on 23rd June the currency markets are likely to be extremely uncertain during this period.
At the moment it appears likely that the Remain camp will win but currently the votes are too close to call.
On Wednesday the European Central Bank meets not to announce any change in policy but more likely to reveal expectations going forward.
Any positive comments from the central bank could see further gains for the single currency vs Sterling creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling.
The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar to its best level since May 2015 which has also helped to support the single currency vs Sterling.
With the Brexit vote causing uncertainty in the next two months many clients are opting to secure currency on forward contracts which means you can buy your currency in advance for a small deposit.
- See more at: http://www.eurorateforecast.com/category/euro-strength/#sthash.tSO4HhG0.dpuf
With the economic data confirming growth for the Eurozone at 0.6% compared to the expectation of 0.4% this helped to strengthen the Euro vs the Pound.
This demonstrated that things might not be as bad in the Eurozone as previously thought and with just less than 2 months to go before the UK votes whether or not to stay in the European Union on 23rd June the currency markets are likely to be extremely uncertain during this period.
At the moment it appears likely that the Remain camp will win but currently the votes are too close to call.
On Wednesday the European Central Bank meets not to announce any change in policy but more likely to reveal expectations going forward.
Any positive comments from the central bank could see further gains for the single currency vs Sterling creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling.
The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar to its best level since May 2015 which has also helped to support the single currency vs Sterling.
With the Brexit vote causing uncertainty in the next two months many clients are opting to secure currency on forward contracts which means you can buy your currency in advance for a small deposit.
- See more at: http://www.eurorateforecast.com/category/euro-strength/#sthash.tSO4HhG0.dpuf
How much of that growth is thanx to the southern countries?
Is anyone else as confused as I am with the Referendum? It seems with every issue there are alternate theories being thrown at us and it's almost a question of who you believe, not what you believe.
Maybe a kind person could tell me the highly likely outcomes from the brexit?
Maybe a kind person could tell me the highly likely outcomes from the brexit?
Think you'll have the read the previous 48 pages of this thread to see all the different scenarios but even after that you'll be just as confused.
Problem is no-one knows really and it is a leap in the dark.
The utopia for Brexit is to return to a little olde worlde Englande (or UK) where all the nasty foreigners go home, no more immigrants, the democratically elected government brings in laws that suits everyone perfectly, these fantastic trade deals where the UK earns billions and billions of pounds and no longer spends any money on the nasty EU but spends all the lovely profits they're going to make on the NHS and unemployment etc.etc.
Back in the real world....
[QUOTE="Paul the Wolf, post: 19137057, member: 87651"]Think you'll have the read the previous 48 pages of this thread to see all the different scenarios but even after that you'll be just as confused.
Problem is no-one knows really and it is a leap in the dark.
The utopia for Brexit is to return to a little olde worlde Englande (or UK) where all the nasty foreigners go home, no more immigrants, the democratically elected government brings in laws that suits everyone perfectly, these fantastic trade deals where the UK earns billions and billions of pounds and no longer spends any money on the nasty EU but spends all the lovely profits they're going to make on the NHS and unemployment etc.etc.
Back in the real world....[/QUOTE]
This is my point really, it seems to be all opinions and predictions but no proven facts. At present I will vote to stay in as I believe a lot of the exit ideals appear to be deep rooted in Ukip tainted racism.
Problem is no-one knows really and it is a leap in the dark.
The utopia for Brexit is to return to a little olde worlde Englande (or UK) where all the nasty foreigners go home, no more immigrants, the democratically elected government brings in laws that suits everyone perfectly, these fantastic trade deals where the UK earns billions and billions of pounds and no longer spends any money on the nasty EU but spends all the lovely profits they're going to make on the NHS and unemployment etc.etc.
Back in the real world....[/QUOTE]
This is my point really, it seems to be all opinions and predictions but no proven facts. At present I will vote to stay in as I believe a lot of the exit ideals appear to be deep rooted in Ukip tainted racism.
Dont believe it has anything to do with racism. To quote the guardian slightly...
People are fed up with the rulers in brussels that dont live lives like the average joe and dont like the way we live.
Im in favour of brexit and my least concern is immigration, its not even a problem in uk
People are fed up with the rulers in brussels that dont live lives like the average joe and dont like the way we live.
Im in favour of brexit and my least concern is immigration, its not even a problem in uk
Sorry, I didn't intend to imply that that's the rule for everyone and am sure there are arguments for exit that are completely reasonable. I just tend to associate UK independence with UKIP or similar which I do feel has racist connotations.
It can only ever be conjecture, especially the Brexit side as nobody is really in the position to say how hard a line the EU will take on trade with a former EU member that jilts them (remainers would guess it will not be too amicable, brexiters guess nothing much will change as the EU needs our business) or how good deals with other nations cut from a position of one smaller nation rather than a larger trade bloc may be. Even the idea of taking back our border control and limiting immigration divides debate with the brexit side overplaying the affect EU migrants have on the UK and claiming we could stop immigration with no difficulty whilst the remain side point out that without the collaboration between UK and EU border forces the situation at Calais would be moved to Dover posing greater problems for our border forces whilst most EU migrants are actually needed within the UK economy and contribute to a net gain by their presence.
The EU isn't perfect, it's governance is largely a sack of bureaucratic bullshit that sucks up money and resources whilst giving us very little and it has made a complete hash of handling the north/south divide in Europe. It's not likely to get any better if we stay in either, although we could contribute positively to the debate and try to steer Europe to do our democratic bidding if only we'd stop electing clowns like Farage and the other 21 UKIP loonies who occupy a disproportionate amount of our 73 EU seats, or would if they could be arsed to turn up to debate and vote rather than just claiming their expenses and stating that their absence from the chamber is a protest against the pointlessness of Europe.
We've got a higher proportion of useless, out of touch pen pushers and civil servants who are undemocratically appointed within the UK than in the EU, I'm not fond of either set to be honest but at least the EU ones aren't dictated to by the likes of Murdoch. The UK should take on a greater and more responsible role in Europe if it wants things to get better, if it stays on the outskirts and sticks two fingers up at Brussels whilst moaning about it then nothing much will change. If we leave however I can see it badly harming the UK for a lengthy period and it's a risk that I don't think is worth taking.
I'd agree that it's not really about race or immigration but sadly our press and political right wing are determined to make it about that by blaming migrants for many of the UK's ills and a great many people will be mobilized to vote on the 23rd of June because they believe it's a vote to kick Johnny Foreigner out, ban muslims, build a wall and join Nige down the Westminster Arms for a pint of best. If the debate over here hadn't been centred on immigration for so long I doubt we'd even be having a referendum as 90% of the UK are blissfully ignorant of the pros and cons of the EU and wouldn't even bother turning out to vote on financial matters that barely affect them.
This about covers it for me. Personally, I'm bemused by all the remain rhetoric about how we won't get a good trade deal outside the EU considering what being inside the EU looks like if TTIP & CETA get agreed.
I'm equally bemused by the unbridled optimism of the brexiteers. If the EU, despite the size of it's trade bloc, gets stuck with TTIP & CETA and the conditions are as bad as people are presently guessing then why would we think as a small lone nation Britain would be able to drive a better deal with the US and Canada?
The president of the US has said we will go to the back of the queue and all the Brexit pack could do was criticise his use of Anglicised grammar to suggest he was doing Dodgy Dave's bidding.
I believe that Greenpeace acquired a copy of the agreement a few days ago, I've not seen that verified yet, but from the initial comments I've seen posted it's supposedly every bit as bad, if not worse, than feared.
Size isn't everything. In fact, in these sort of negotiations it's often a detrimental factor because the deal ends up being massively bloated & full of compromises in order to fit everyone's requirements. A deal between two independent countries should be a damn sight simpler to achieve.
Size isn't everything but in trade negotiations leverage tends to be used to force fit on any incongruities, as a far smaller trading partner we'd be entering these negotiations with a far smaller lever arm and much less weight to apply on the end of it suggesting we'd suffer even more from elements of the deal we did not want.
CETA negotiations begun in 2004 and TTIP in 2006 and neither look likely to be completed this year with TTIP looking like it won't be through until 2020. That's a hell of a long queue/line/bus or whatever the hell you want to call it if we are really going to go back to the drawing board and gambling that we'll get things rushed through as we're old mates is hardly filling me with optimism that we won't just end up with a rushed copy of TTIP and CETA with even more objectionable clauses foisted on us.
There is a big push from the US, and Merkel too apparently, to get it completed this year. It was one of the big factors behind Obama's statements about us and the EU IMO, he sees TTIP as being a big part of his legacy as president.
Just heard the EU to ban menthol cigs by 2020.
Excellent, priorities correct as usual
Excellent, priorities correct as usual
UK are already in it and cant change anything, thats blatantly obvious.
Being on the outside we can only speculate. i just hate how the eu works, it only seems to benefit the well off countries and thats not the idea.
Reading about the leaked TTIP text today has put me on the fence again. I was reluctantly siding with remain but seeing how much more sovereignty the EU are willing to surrender to fecking US corporations of all things has made me really question whether its worth staying in.
It should be put to a referendum to all 28 members or at the very least be at the forefront of the EU debate. Disgraceful agreement to say the least.
It should be put to a referendum to all 28 members or at the very least be at the forefront of the EU debate. Disgraceful agreement to say the least.
To me it highlights a major issue with the EU, this deal is being done in secret without sharing the details wth the people it affects most. And when some of those details do get out suddenly a few EU bureaucrats emerge to say "oh no, you've got it all wrong".
Nothing has been agreed and before It can it'll have to have a realistic of passing through a lot of parliaments
On a totally side note, I'm in the district now that always gets their count in first in the GE. Is there likely to be that level of competitiveness for the count tomorrow?
It looks like it's everything everyone feared it would be. The paradox is that Leave argues that a trade deal with the US will be negotiated after the exit too, but that's a terrible reason for a leftist to leave.
If the UK leaves, it's going to be in a weaker negotiating position with the EU... If the EU surrenders, the UK probably will, too.
If Katie Hopkins, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove & Donald Trump are on one side, I'm on the other.
I'd watch her walk down Regent Street with a sausage up her bum.
You said the same about Michael Portillo though.
I think the fact Donald Trump has warned the UK against staying and advised us to leave is more than enough reason to stay.
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