The immigration has been shown quite a few times to either a.) not be a problem at all or b.) not an issue that is solved by leaving the EU or c.) even if we left the EU, would not change significantly anyway. Whether the leavers choose to ignore it or not because it doesn't fit their narrative is their choice, but the argument has been made many times.
EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
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The immigration has been shown quite a few times to either a.) not be a problem at all or b.) not an issue that is solved by leaving the EU or c.) even if we left the EU, would not change significantly anyway. Whether the leavers choose to ignore it or not because it doesn't fit their narrative is their choice, but the argument has been made many times.
I disagree with you there. I think that you're right that some of the predictions are very wacky but there's some short term impacts that are very tangible. If we vote leave on Thursday some people will lose their jobs, the pound will weaken against the Euro, we will lose some (most probably more likely) of inward EU investment (which totals ~50% of all investment in the UK). We know that we overestimate the amount of migrants in the country and we also know that those here have an economic benefit.
I'm not going to get into the arguments surrounding trade deals as I suspect you may already question some of that.
So I think the question we should be asking on the economy isn't will it get worse it's how bad will it get, can we ride it out and recover and is it a price worth paying? The fact only 33% of people believe that (And that is the highest percentage since polling began on the issue) shows the problems we have in having an informed debate on the subject imo.
If the referendum goes through, how many expat Brits in Europe are going to have to return?
This bit's spot on and well put. Whilst leave are in denial about any economic effects at all though it does make it hard to support them.
Historically, the UK has been very successful in getting its own way in Europe, particularly when the UK government actively engaged with the EU. The UK has special treatment over things like the Euro and its rebate, so it's not fair to say that the UK has no say over things. Leaving the EU just means the rest of Europe get to dictate terms of trade across the continent and the UK will have to get into line to continue to get access to european markets.
Leaving the EU will have a negligible impact on net migration.
They tend to be a big boost to the economies of the countries they live in, from their spending and associated tourism, it's unlikely those countries would want to throw them out. Expats might want to leave themselves if their reciprocal medical care goes, but the UK could still pay for that by bilateral agreement if it wanted, and there's always insurance anyway of course.
Hard to say, most countries will make special dispensation for the wealthy and the highly skilled but if we start deporting EU citizens they will deport the not so well off British citizens in return.
What, the "we're full" argument? Really, when there's 1 immigrant every 10 square miles.
Why not build more housing, it would help reinvigorate the economy and if more immigrants arrive and work here happily paying their taxes then their contribution will help pay for our increasingly ageing population as well as our idle minority who don't want the work.
The reason the remain campaign have probably not raised the immigration argument is that they realise that neither side has the answer to it, in fact they know it's not really a problem anyway. Of our immigrants only 1 in 10 illegal immigrants smuggle their way into Britain, most arrive legally and then overstay their visas so taking back our borders (which we never actually gave up) will achieve very little. If anything seeing how well most of our civil service works we'll probably allow more through than get through at present. We try to tackle the black market employers who keep illegal immigrants in usury and modern slavery, the traffickers who bring them over etc but successive governments have failed to put a significant dent in the numbers because our incessant need for cheaper services and goods creates the market conditions that bring them here in the first place. The legal economic migrants from the EU and elsewhere actively contribute to our society and are a net benefit to the countries purse despite many of them living in pretty horrendous conditions and doing work our own labour force will not, even if we leave the EU we will still need similar numbers of willing workers prepared to accept low wages and poor conditions, I'd love it if all workers were well paid and well treated but capitalism put paid to that dream decades ago.
The simple fact is, immigration is not actually a problem so no government is going to go to great lengths to try and tackle it other than staging a few high profile raids in support of the modern day slavery bill. That won't stop the politicians using immigration as a convenient smoke screen for everything else that ails us, it's always been easier to blame our woes on Johnny Foreigner than to tackle the real issues and frankly our ruling class would rather their mates in big business are left in peace to dodge tax and exploit the poor whilst we're busy buying into the press manipulation that demonises the immigrant, the poor, the sick and the needy.
That seems a reasonable response from EU countries, but if we start deporting people then they will deport people in return, if for no other reason because of public pressure to do so.
Well said.
So, just like the immigrants in the UK then.
Spot on. Annoys me that no one seems to be able to articulate this argument pubically. The Remain campaign has been a complete shambles.
Not 'just like', as British expats tend to pump money made from outside the local economies straight into those economies, whereas immigrants to Britain make money here by working here and becoming part of our economy.
If you're trying to make the point that immigration is of benefit to Britain from an economic perspective though, then yes, I agree.
edit: I've just realised with expats I'm thinking mostly of my own age group (I suppose we all do it) that's the retired, whereas of course there are a lot of younger people in Europe to work. That is an analogy.
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They're not at all tangible, only estimates can ever be given on this as the worst of it will come with negative sentiment in the markets
You can equally make the argument that a lot of the impact has been priced in to the markets and it may rebound if a satisfactory negotiation is made. I very much expect strong intervention from both the ECB and BoE should we vote Leave. The world will not fall in as quickly as some here believe.
I'm struggling to see which part you don't agree with me on? You seem to think that I'm overstating how bad the economy will get (even though I'd argue I'm only focusing on issues that we know will happen, or already have happened and am ignoring some very possible scenario's that would make us a whole lot worse off) but are you challenging my point that the economy would get worse at all? I don't think you are.
If that puts you in the Leave campaign because you think we'd recover easily and it's a price worth paying then so be it, but at least that's a more honest posistion than some people's on the issue.
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Do people realise that if the Uk wants to export products, these products have to comply with the laws of whichever country they are exporting to, so if the EU have rules to say what the packaging says for example, the UK will still have to apply these laws in order for them to sell them - the only difference will be is that the UK will have no say in what these laws will be if they leave
No I'm remain, just disagree completely that there's going to be strong short term economic impacts and that these are already known. Long term it will harm growth but the nightmare scenarios of interest rates being increased and jobs losses occuring in the short term are IMO wide of the mark.
Well if we do vote to leave let's hope you're right, hey?
Britain is, and will continue to be a significant country, no matter what other politicians will tell you. Saying we will have all the power and significance of Guernsey is a ridiculous statement to make. The only reason why comments like these are made is because they fear that if the UK leaves and shows that it can prosper outside the EU then other countries will think of doing the same, ultimately meaning the end.
I fail to see why people think the economic impact will only be short term, what is going to change after the short term to make things suddenly rosy again?
Significant as compared to who though?
As part of the EU, Britain is part of an economy larger than that of the United States.
Alone, the British economy is only about 30% larger than that of the state of California.
But that logic is defied by every successful independent country on the planet.
There are very few countries with an economy larger than California. It has the largest economy in the US by some way. The comparison with Guernsey was hilarious. Its crap like that from both sides this debate could do without.
Most smaller, independent countries are part of a large trade bloc. Something Leave wants to remove Britain from.
At last, I've been waiting to hear who these countries are
I cannot wait for Friday and this all to be over. After all the calls for more reasoned debate after Jo Cox's murder, it seems like nothing has changed given this morning's posturing.
Yet California survives because it is part of a larger economy (which is itself part of a larger trade bloc).
If California were removed from the Union, could it survive on its own?
- the worrying part is that Boris will believe you and try to do a deal with themIndeed!
How many successful Independent countries are there? America is a given but has a massive population so lots of internal consumers. Canada and Aus are helped by their mineral wealth. Japan and South Korea are good examples but I don't belive we can become manufacturing titans like them. Singapore is a city state
He doesn't have to answer your questions!
No-one from Brexit ever does
I was simply trying to highlight a popular phrase that politicians use when talking about migration, be it inside or outside the EU. It's an easy answer to an otherwise complex question. Where do you build all these new homes? We already have many parts of the country who suffer from severe flooding, do we continue to encroach into our countryside, build on every little piece of land we can find? Last time I checked successive governments have continued to fail to meet their targets for new build homes, so how is that going to improve in the future?
I'm not saying people who move here don't contribute because a majority of them do. The 'idle minority' is another argument entirely.
But the problem is that you shouldn't say you're going to reduce the rate of migration and then fail to do so but then come back with 'well it's difficult to do' as an excuse. The government know that they can't control the numbers arriving from within the EU but they do have greater control in those arriving from outside, so why has that number continued to increase?
Canada USA Mexico have a deal
True, and are working on others
Below is a map of the world's major trade agreements. The world's "successful" countries are all in them.
ok, in this analogy I'm a mechanic who says your brakes may not be shot, and if you go to this big EU garage you're going to get the arse ripped out of you and pay far more than you should do to the tune of many $Billions over the next twenty years.
Well yes but they are not really comparable in case you haven't noticed yet. There is not just one "trade agreement" and they are all equal. If your argument is that without a "major trade agreement" the UK will be insignificant in the short term you might want to check on your competence debating this issue (and start thinking of whether or not California could survive without the US). Several bilateral trade agreements might be just as effective as being part of a "major trade agreement", it might be even better.
That's not to say that the UK will be better off leaving the EU as I find it rather obvious that it's vice versa.
Besides, and that's not exclusively directed at you: Independence and trade agreements do not conflict each other in any way.
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