Erik ten Hag | 2024/25

[flameinthesun]

No. That is what I want from us this season. 10-15 points of the top would mean we are winning alot of games, and say January we are in a longshot conversation about challenging but fall off slightly. Its a building block.

However; if you look at the last few seasons, the team finished 4th has been closer to the team 8th than the top 2, which is where I would have say look at the context of the season and perhaps sack him. Which is why I dont think finishing 4th is all that of a season.

Look at our season last year, 2/3 more wins and we would have been top 4.

First off, I appreciate you humouring me on this as there's no ill intent on my side.

So I am a little confused here maybe because initially you said we should be challenging this season. For me that is what Arsenal is doing/has done in the last 2 seasons. Finishing 15 points off off the top 2 (2nd place then being the bar) then last season that would be 74 points and a 4th place finish, EtH's 1st season that would be 69 points and a 5th place finish.

What I'm trying to understand is if this season we finish on 75 points, a 4th place finish and a cup, whilst showing consistency in the amount of chances we create, competitive against the top 4 teams and a better defensive display, do you think he should be sacked at the end of the season?

 

[Robbie Boy]

So again just to clarify for my understanding, if this season we finished 10-15 points off of 2nd place, won Europa league and continued the trend we've started the season off with of creating loads of chances whilst also showing better defensive improvement as the season goes on resulting in better control of matches, you think he should be sacked?

Exactly. As pointed out earlier, there's always caveats to league finishes. I'm someone who has little faith in ETH, but if he starts to dominate games, beats some of the top 6, and gets us a comfortable top four finish, then he'll start to change my mind.

The biggest thing for me is that I expect a monumental improvement in our playstyle, and a huge improvement in terms of results against stronger teams. He could conceivably get a top 4 finish where we still look hopeless, and that wouldn't cut it. There's so many nuances and variances to be considered, and saying definitively one way or the other that top 4 is/isn't good enough is far too simplistic.

 

[Lentwood]

Agree with your acid test points, those are the games where the strong separate themselves from the weak, something we've repeatedly failed to do recently.
That being said, I disagree with your whole "a team that's spent 1 Billion should be this" part. This isn't a 1 billion pound team, the whole world and it's mother knows that. So for me, it makes no sense to place that expectation on us. That's just setting yourself up for further disappointments. Set expectation on what we are, not what we should be.

On the one hand, I agree that "one billion pound team" is meaningless, in the sense that fees paid for players does not necessarily correlate with performances on the pitch.

However, in a thread specifically about evaluating the manager, I'd say it's relevant to point out that he's been very well-supported, and not just supported in the sense that money has been wildly thrown around. He's got a proper team working above/with him now and that counts for a great deal.

 

[Teja]

My northstar metric is always xGD/90 and yes small sample size but we're 4th there (just in the 4 PL games, without counting Barnsley). Chance creation has genuinely improved and our attackers look alright for once. Just on xG we're second behind City.

I really wanted the guy gone in the summer but sacking him after 3 GWs and getting an interim is a bit silly so I had my vote on back even after the Pool game. We really need the win against Palace and at least one of Spurs / Villa and that puts us in a pretty good spot to attack the easier fixtures that come after that. If we loose / draw at Palace and loose to Spurs at home we'll be back in crisis mode by the second international break and it's hard to see him turn that around.

Confidence is a very fragile thing and even if Ten Hag is brilliant manager, once the confidence levels start dropping and players start playing within themselves, it's just downhill from there.

 

[romufc]

First off, I appreciate you humouring me on this as there's no ill intent on my side.

So I am a little confused here maybe because initially you said we should be challenging this season. For me that is what Arsenal is doing/has done in the last 2 seasons. Finishing 15 points off off the top 2 (2nd place then being the bar) then last season that would be 74 points and a 4th place finish, EtH's 1st season that would be 69 points and a 5th place finish.

What I'm trying to understand is if this season we finish on 75 points, a 4th place finish and a cup, whilst showing consistency in the amount of chances we create, competitive against the top 4 teams and a better defensive display, do you think he should be sacked at the end of the season?

I will always respond as long as you are not calling names.

I mean it all gets a bit complicated when we talk about points to placement in previous seasons. It would be a 4th place finish but also further away from the chasing pack.

I will generally apply context and not just say he needs to be sacked because we finished 4th. Just to let you know I am neither Ten Hag in or out, I saw a good first season poor second. I can see why we were so poor with the injuries.

If we perform like you have said in your last paragraph, I would be 50/50. I mean if we are creating chances and better defensively, we should do better than 75 points anyway. The reason I say 50/50 is I would like to see how we perform against the big teams, do we win our home games V Chelsea, Spurs, Villa, Newcastle and all other teams, Vs can we go away and compete.

I know we won at Villa park but we were pretty awful away at Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Arsenal, City, Liverpool last season. We have to see how consistent we are against the bigger teams as well.

 

[Judas]

Yes, because 4th means nothing. It gets us CL but whats the point when we go into the Cl to get embarassed?

This attitude is the worst. I can’t stand it. it’s so negative. It’s also makes it out that improvement can’t be achieved over a summer too. It’s just so painfully downbeat, like what’s the point even watching if you’re going to feel like that?

 

[romufc]

This attitude is the worst. I can’t stand it. it’s so negative. It’s also makes it out that improvement can’t be achieved over a summer too. It’s just so painfully downbeat, like what’s the point even watching if you’re going to feel like that?

Improvement can be made over the summer. However; if you have 3 years of evidence showing the manager cannot make improvement, then what makes you think without any evidence things will turn around?

 

[VP89]

Improvement can be made over the summer. However; if you have 3 years of evidence showing the manager cannot make improvement, then what makes you think without any evidence things will turn around?

We have 3 years of evidence here?

 

[FortunaUtd]

Improvement can be made over the summer. However; if you have 3 years of evidence showing the manager cannot make improvement, then what makes you think without any evidence things will turn around?

No matter who's the manager, qualifying for CL and then participating in it next season is something worthwile to root for.

 

[romufc]

We have 3 years of evidence here?

We will by the end of the season. That was the point. If at the end of this current season, he gets top 4.

No matter who's the manager, qualifying for CL and then participating in it next season is something to root for.

Yes top 4 is good but if the manager just gets top 4, that doesn't mean he can't get sacked. We could be completely inconsistent and scrape results like last season and end up in the top 4. We need to learn that its not just about getting CL footy. The team performance and how we play in games matter too.

 

[flameinthesun]

I will always respond as long as you are not calling names.

I mean it all gets a bit complicated when we talk about points to placement in previous seasons. It would be a 4th place finish but also further away from the chasing pack.

I will generally apply context and not just say he needs to be sacked because we finished 4th. Just to let you know I am neither Ten Hag in or out, I saw a good first season poor second. I can see why we were so poor with the injuries.

If we perform like you have said in your last paragraph, I would be 50/50. I mean if we are creating chances and better defensively, we should do better than 75 points anyway. The reason I say 50/50 is I would like to see how we perform against the big teams, do we win our home games V Chelsea, Spurs, Villa, Newcastle and all other teams, Vs can we go away and compete.

I know we won at Villa park but we were pretty awful away at Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Arsenal, City, Liverpool last season. We have to see how consistent we are against the bigger teams as well.

Okay then I think we have fairly similar positions in that regard tbh.

 

[Garnacho Libre]

I came into the season believing that this season truly kicks off after the first international break. With many players lacking a full preseason and the transfer window just concluding, I expected the pre-break games to be quite unpredictable, with some surprising results.

Unfortunately, this didn’t pan out as expected. Most contenders started strong, while we struggled, which may highlight our lack of preparedness. Regardless of the reasons, the outcome has made us appear weaker than we are.

Now that the break is over and players are regaining fitness, we’ll soon discover our true potential under ETH and I believe the results will surprise many.

I'm the same and I think most people are. After the first month the squad should be settled.

I hope you're right. There was a lot of freak out with many fans which I understand. I think every League game this season is going to be crucial. For this season my main hope is they don't lose too many of the games that ''should'' be wins. I'm headed over for Spurs game next week. I was at Spurs game a few years back and we lost 3-0 I think it was. Rasmus is back in training so hoping he gets a few minutes.

There was a lot of positives the last two games. Although weaker opponents, we have struggled in the past to get results against them so hopefully the team drives forward.

 

[Kag]

I think we look a little better under him this season. Less open and fewer shots on target against us, albeit far from perfect. Our new signings definitely raise the floor of the squad (though gaps remain). If we can avoid the injury plague then I think he’s going to see some progress.

 

[FortunaUtd]

Yes top 4 is good but if the manager just gets top 4, that doesn't mean he can't get sacked. We could be completely inconsistent and scrape results like last season and end up in the top 4. We need to learn that its not just about getting CL footy. The team performance and how we play in games matter too.

You won't get top 4 by being "completely inconsistent". If we end up in the top 4 it means we will have been good, and will have massively improved from last season.
And then Ten Hag will deserve another season, just like he didn't deserve another after last season's shit show. But since he survived that, we can assume he'd certainly survive coming 4th, and I would be okay with it.

 

[romufc]

You won't get top 4 by being "completely inconsistent". If we end up in the top 4 it means we will have been good, and will have massively improved from last season.
And then Ten Hag will deserve another season, just like he didn't deserve another after last season's shit show. But since he survived that, we can assume he'd certainly survive coming 4th, and I would be okay with it.

What I think should happen and what the club will do are 2 different things. Regardless of what happened in the last 2 seasons the excuses will not fly anymore.

1. No structure above - This has been sorted and we have a proper structure now.
2. Not backed in the window - Although I dont buy the he spent xyz so he is backed because backing a manager isn't about speing 100m on a player who you should get for 40m. Its about getting him the profiles required and getting rid of players that dont suit. We have done that this season, got a ST, full back, 2 CB's and a CM.
3. Injuries - He saw how last season went, so its up to him to learn and adapt, so again that excuse is not there.

So now, we dont have any excuses but to see a consistent style of play. I dont even think we will need to wait till the end of the season, I think we will know if he survives the season or not by the next 10 games.

 

[FortunaUtd]

What I think should happen and what the club will do are 2 different things. Regardless of what happened in the last 2 seasons the excuses will not fly anymore.

1. No structure above - This has been sorted and we have a proper structure now.
2. Not backed in the window - Although I dont buy the he spent xyz so he is backed because backing a manager isn't about speing 100m on a player who you should get for 40m. Its about getting him the profiles required and getting rid of players that dont suit. We have done that this season, got a ST, full back, 2 CB's and a CM.
3. Injuries - He saw how last season went, so its up to him to learn and adapt, so again that excuse is not there.

So now, we dont have any excuses but to see a consistent style of play. I dont even think we will need to wait till the end of the season, I think we will know if he survives the season or not by the next 10 games.

I completely agree.

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

2nd season I was expecting a more dominant style, competitive in getting to quarters of CL, 10-15 points off the top 2 and maybe a cup.

I dont expect to see a manager in his third season get schooled by a manager in his first 5 games at home. I really dont expect to wonder what team will turn up at every football game.

That is a big ask, saying 2 or 3 signings away to challenge. A manager who after 2 full seasons has got a brand new 11 signed for him, should not need 2 / 3 players to challenge.

I at least expect going into home games and thinking we are here to compete, not thinking oh oh what will the score be today?

Winning league and FA cups is good, I think that is what has saved his job but not being competitive at all against clubs we aspire to be like is not good enough for me.

Agree with this. I've said before the season started that comfortably top 4 with significant performance improvements should be the baseline at this point, we shouldn't be moving the goalposts year over year because the previous year was poor just to accomodate a manager.

Quite frankly I don't care about the cups in terms of evaluating the performance, they are great to win and I always want more trophies but anyone with a brain can tell you that they rely on a fair bit of luck quite often (mostly in who you draw and when). League is priority, and then Europa performance after that. If we get 5th and crash out of Europa with middling metrics while getting dominated by top sides still he should be sacked without a second thought. Not really much else to it considering the money and time he's been afforded at that point.

 

[ArmaDino]

Improvement can be made over the summer. However; if you have 3 years of evidence showing the manager cannot make improvement, then what makes you think without any evidence things will turn around?

What 3 years?

He improved us year 1 when we finished 3rd and won our first trophy in 5 years. We regressed in year 2, however the take away is that he seems to have abandoned his suicidal tactics and denied a City domestic double.

So the jury is still out in year 3. So far the signs are a bit more positive than last year. We seem to create more, concede less chances and look more and more like a team. By Christmas time it will be clear if Erik has it in him to turn things around.

 

[afrocentricity]

did not expect to see such a large margin for sack...

 

[leontas]

Back to back wins with 10 goals scored.

Happy days, for now at least.

I hope it continues, but let's not get carried away here - we beat the 2nd worst team in the PL and the team with the 3rd worst defence in League One.

 

[FrankWhite]

did not expect to see such a large margin for sack...

This was right after the Liverpool game.

 

[Andycoleno9]

In DM, there are Garner's quotes about Erik:
The midfielder says the Dutch manager runs a tight ship, and that he is 'strict' implementer of his regime.

He revealed Ten Hag is a 'very approachable guy' but is 'very strict', and doesn't mince his words.

I think that he is not doing well this season and i am worried about lot of things but regarding his personality i am pleased that he is like this. As manager should be.

 

[erikcred]

I hope it continues, but let's not get carried away here - we beat the 2nd worst team in the PL and the team with the 3rd worst defence in League One.

Have to begin the remontada somewhere.

 

[NLunited]

Why shouldn't fans expect a club that's spent the obscene money we have over the past two summers, to not at least resemble a team that's looking to challenge? When should we expect to challenge if not now?

We have a manager who should have a clear, dominant playing style at this point, and should have United very consistent in the league this season.

Yes, I expect alot more than lets aim for 4th every season.

In essence you are both right, but look where we are coming from.

The squad is getting sorted and we are 80% there (abouts). But not 100%. Two inexperienced strikers and two inexperienced wingers and we are thin at left back and in midfield. Our squad isn‘t ready to challenge for the title.

The football structure around Ten Hag has been improved, check. No more excuses.

We do need time to bed in new players and get some consistency.

If we get CL and show improved in gameplay, that would be fine with me.

A title challenge is a couple years away probably (if all goes well). But if Cheaty get relagated and Arsenal lose their shit, all bets are off.

 

[romufc]

What 3 years?

He improved us year 1 when we finished 3rd and won our first trophy in 5 years. We regressed in year 2, however the take away is that he seems to have abandoned his suicidal tactics and denied a City domestic double.

So the jury is still out in year 3. So far the signs are a bit more positive than last year. We seem to create more, concede less chances and look more and more like a team. By Christmas time it will be clear if Erik has it in him to turn things around.

This is his 3rd season right? So at the end of the season he would have had 3 years at the club. I am sorry but you cant only count the good and not the bad, I am not going to take last season away.

Just because we are not conceding 20 shots a game? I mean even tony pulis can get you that improvement, that's not the level of improvement I want to see.

We seem to create more and concede less but we have a 0 GD.

I dont even think we will need till Christmas, the next 5 games will tell us if he has improved or not.

 

[NLunited]

This is his 3rd season right? So at the end of the season he would have had 3 years at the club. I am sorry but you cant only count the good and not the bad, I am not going to take last season away.

Just because we are not conceding 20 shots a game? I mean even tony pulis can get you that improvement, that's not the level of improvement I want to see.

We seem to create more and concede less but we have a 0 GD.

I dont even think we will need till Christmas, the next 5 games will tell us if he has improved or not.

We are lacking an experienced striker, and will need Højlund or Zirkzee to hit scoring form. Do you think there are managers out there that instantly turn these two into goalscoring monsters?

We have fecking RvN on the coaching staff, give it some time.

 

[romufc]

We are lacking an experienced striker, and will need Højlund or Zirkzee to hit scoring form. Do you think there are managers out there that instantly turn these two into goalscoring monsters?

We have fecking RvN on the coaching staff, give it some time.

There are teams out there without experienced ST who have a better GD.

Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea are all clubs who dont have experienced strikers but get goals.

 

[Ødegaard]

Out of curiosity? Which one position do you think we're one injury away from a crisis. I think in terms of bodies, we have quite a lot when you take a look at the squad. Next is quality. I think the quality our squad is a rather fluid one as it is so dependent on confidence and form. I think our confidence has been on the low side over the past fews months, which is making our appear to be one of less quality than it really is.
I think with a be of luck, the team gelling and putting some results together, people's perceptions of our squad quality would be very different.

Sorry for the slow answer, health issues holding me up these days. My formulation is also going to be rather poor, but I'll try to get the point somewhat down.
I agree that we have a lot of bodies, number wise we actually have quite a bit of depth as well, which is nice. I think we're a developing squad due to how few of our core players are in their prime or entering it. Both our strikers & current favorite wingers are very young and need time to settle and develop, despite being quite good already. We also have a few areas where the quality falloff from the main choice to the next one is not great, especially if something happens during a match, and we need to make changes.

If one of Garnacho, Diallo or Rashford aren't available, then the one coming off the bench will be Antony.
If Shaw is injured, like he almost always is, and something happens to either of Dalot or Mazraoui, then we're either playing people out of position or putting a lot of pressure on a 17-year-old Amass.
If Ugarte gets injured or needs time to settle, we're still playing a Casemiro who has shown he can't be overly relied on, or a very young and inexperienced Collyer.

I want to be clear, I think they are building the squad the right way, but I want to give them time to actually do the building. Getting more and more players ready to hit their prime will do the squad good. A lot of our core is now between 20 and 26, so in 3–5 years we should be very good if we continue to work on the players we have and find upgrades that fit into this group. But at the moment I believe too many in the squad are on one of the further ends of their prime than it would be in a squad I would expect to be performing at their best.

 

[DJ_21]

There are teams out there without experienced ST who have a better GD.

Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea are all clubs who dont have experienced strikers but get goals.

Yes but for all 3 of them teams it helps when you have goalscoring wingers. Salah challenges for golden boot each year, Arsenal have Saka and Martinelli who chips in with a lot of goals. Chelsea have palmer and wide players that score. We have young wingers but heavily rely on Rashford to rack up the numbers. If he’s poor then we rarely score.

 

[VP89]

Yes but for all 3 of them teams it helps when you have goalscoring wingers. Salah challenges for golden boot each year, Arsenal have Saka and Martinelli who chips in with a lot of goals. Chelsea have palmer and wide players that score. We have young wingers but heavily rely on Rashford to rack up the numbers. If he’s poor then we rarely score.

The positive this season is Garnacho looks to be taking that level up which Martinelli had 2 seasons ago. Amad might have a year akin to Garnacho's season last year and both of these things will be massive.
If Hojlund can improve even slightly on his tally and we get Rashford to double digits (both more than plausible) then it's a very positive outlook for us.

This is before we consider Zirkzee's eye for a goal or Bruno's impact.

 

[romufc]

Yes but for all 3 of them teams it helps when you have goalscoring wingers. Salah challenges for golden boot each year, Arsenal have Saka and Martinelli who chips in with a lot of goals. Chelsea have palmer and wide players that score. We have young wingers but heavily rely on Rashford to rack up the numbers. If he’s poor then we rarely score.

I mean when was the last time Martinelli chipped in with lot of goals? We have Bruno who chips in with goals, Hojlund scored 15 last season.

I mean you cant say Chelsea have Palmer and in the very next sentence say we have young wingers when it was literally Palmers first senior season last. Amad, Garnacho are more experienced than Palmer.

 

[NLunited]

There are teams out there without experienced ST who have a better GD.

Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea are all clubs who dont have experienced strikers but get goals.

Oh no, I guess we are fecked then

 

[romufc]

Oh no, I guess we are fecked then

No, we can still have expectations on our young forwards to get goals?

Amad, Garnacho, Hojlund, Bruno need to get us the goals

 

[flameinthesun]

No, we can still have expectations on our young forwards to get goals?

Amad, Garnacho, Hojlund, Bruno need to get us the goals

I do think it is a valid point regarding goal scorers. The two teams who have won the league recently have had the likes of Aguero, Haaland, Sala. It's why its hard to see Arsenal winning a title because I'm not sure they have any players that can hit 30+ goals. Now that's not the same barrier to get top 4 where I do think we have should have enough if the attackers find form, however unless one of them e.g. Rasmus, Garnacho suddenly develops into a 30+ goals a season player we will likely have to invest in one if we do eventually want to win a league.

 

[DJ_21]

I mean when was the last time Martinelli chipped in with lot of goals? We have Bruno who chips in with goals, Hojlund scored 15 last season.

I mean you cant say Chelsea have Palmer and in the very next sentence say we have young wingers when it was literally Palmers first senior season last. Amad, Garnacho are more experienced than Palmer.

Fair point. But you can’t really include Liverpool and Arsenal in the debate. Liverpool and Arsenal are ahead of us in terms of style and playing within a system. We really need players to step up, especially our attackers or more experienced players like Bruno and Rashford. Hopefully scoring 10 goals in 2 games will give us the much needed boost and confidence that we need

 

[tenpoless]

I guess what really annoys me is the fact that he's crap against Liverpool. It makes everything look so much worse. It's like every time we get beaten by pool (and embarrassingly) all progress are gone.
Van Gaal was a snoozefest but you can bet he's always ready for Liverpool.

 

[erikcred]

I guess what really annoys me is the fact that he's crap against Liverpool. It makes everything look so much worse. It's like every time we get beaten by pool (and embarrassingly) all progress are gone.
Van Gaal was a snoozefest but you can bet he's always ready for Liverpool.

Not always. Just that when things went wrong in the two losses, they went really wrong.

 

[romufc]

I do think it is a valid point regarding goal scorers. The two teams who have won the league recently have had the likes of Aguero, Haaland, Sala. It's why its hard to see Arsenal winning a title because I'm not sure they have any players that can hit 30+ goals. Now that's not the same barrier to get top 4 where I do think we have should have enough if the attackers find form, however unless one of them e.g. Rasmus, Garnacho suddenly develops into a 30+ goals a season player we will likely have to invest in one if we do eventually want to win a league.

Fair point. But you can’t really include Liverpool and Arsenal in the debate. Liverpool and Arsenal are ahead of us in terms of style and playing within a system. We really need players to step up, especially our attackers or more experienced players like Bruno and Rashford. Hopefully scoring 10 goals in 2 games will give us the much needed boost and confidence that we need

I understand where Arsenal and Liverpool are but I dont think liverpool are that far ahead of us really. Apart from Salah, their attack isnt much better than ours, same as Arsenal, is their attack that much better than ours?

But this is the problem, we dont have a defined style yet which is holding us back. Lets hope the 2 games has given our attack some confidence.

We talk about investing, but thats what we done with Hojlund, he is meant to be that investment that gets us goals?

Also in this market, it is very difficult to sign a proven goal scorer, they almost dont exist. Spurs signed Solanke for 65m, is he any good? Sesko is the only one I can think of at the moment.

 

[flameinthesun]

I understand where Arsenal and Liverpool are but I dont think liverpool are that far ahead of us really. Apart from Salah, their attack isnt much better than ours, same as Arsenal, is their attack that much better than ours?

But this is the problem, we dont have a defined style yet which is holding us back. Lets hope the 2 games has given our attack some confidence.

We talk about investing, but thats what we done with Hojlund, he is meant to be that investment that gets us goals?

Also in this market, it is very difficult to sign a proven goal scorer, they almost dont exist. Spurs signed Solanke for 65m, is he any good? Sesko is the only one I can think of at the moment.

I think Rasmus is a good investment (maybe paid a bit too much for him) as his profile is pretty interesting, I can see why we think he might become a 30+ striker. But yeah in general there are a very few number of Haalands/Salahs/Mbappes out there. I think if we keep on creating loads of chances and our attacker keep missing then it would say less about the style and more that maybe we need to invest in new attackers. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[romufc]

I think Rasmus is a good investment (maybe paid a bit too much for him) as his profile is pretty interesting, I can see why we think he might become a 30+ striker. But yeah in general there are a very few number of Haalands/Salahs/Mbappes out there. I think if we keep on creating loads of chances and our attacker keep missing then it would say less about the style and more that maybe we need to invest in new attackers. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Yep, I think its difficult to rely on individuals to get those goals, its about sharing them around. Madrid, City all scored goals prior to getting Haaland / Mbappe, so its more created enough chances.

I think next 4 weeks will be crucial for Ten Hag.