Erik ten Hag | 2024/25 | Sacked

Erik ten Hag

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I think the days of dominating a league with a squad filled of journeymen and a few stars, like Fergie did countless times are long gone. In the early and mid stages of the premier league you just had 2 or 3 teams that would go toe-to toe with the league leaders, most just sat back and tried to win something from a breakaway or corner.

With the modern money in the league you now have teams across the whole of the league filling their squads with £30-40m talent and scouting the world for hidden gems. Yes I know Fergie even got away with playing squad teams against Arsenal etc but I don't think anyone would get away with that now.

What we do need to do is stop just posing simple and obvious threats to the opposition goal. Our attacks are pedestrian and easy to predict and we don't "batter" an opposition with multiple threats across the pitch and rapid fire attacks. My abiding memory of the Fergie era is wave after wave of attacks on the opposition with a threat in every part of the pitch from multiple runners with and without the ball.
It's not about dominating the league, that is something that is so far from our reach now that it's not even worth talking about. It's about being able to play decent football consistently, even while facing some adversity, injuries etc. There is going to be inevitable decline in results when you have some of your key players unavailable, that happened during Fergie days as well despite our team being much stronger in general, but the depths that we reached last season are simply unacceptable.
 
I had a poster pretty much claim that the loss against Liverpool was down to ETH not having any choices in central midfield, the set up and tactics were fine apparently, it was just INEOS that fecked up the transfer window.

I have heard every excuse in the book when it comes to ETH. Why isn't that he simply isn't good enough for the Premier League a plausible reason why he is not delivering?

Some aren't ready to consider that as a possibility just yet it seems.
 
It's a massive disservice to accredit individual accolades in performances without assessing the relativity of the system and coaches they are playing under in retrospect.

I'm subjectively confident that neither Isak, Gordon or Harvey Barnes in this instance have the same output in a Erik Ten Hag outfit compared to the way they are deployed under Howe's philosophy. Also consider the neutrality in the way United progress the ball from the wider areas it requires so much self-intuitive attribution as most of the chance creation doesn't stem from the midfield but from the wide play which explains why Hojlund was bereft of service last season as would any traditional 9 in the way Erik organizes the phases of play.

Additionally, the season before last Newcastle had statistically the best defence in the league among Shar, Botman and Dan Burns. Not exactly the most renowned names on paper but another example of a defined system that exalts the players contribution. Reading the stats they averaged 52% possession over 38 games having the second lowest percentile for the amount of touches in their defensive penalty area (behind Arsenal). You could throw a Maguire into that Newcastle team that particular season under those parameters and he churns out high level performances as the approach is discernable looking at the data, low block with a flat three midfield that's hard to break down.

A players value massively hinges on perception of the teams collective performances, the only exception is for world class players but because of how compressed the modern game of football has become , there's almost next to teams in world football outside of Madrid that possess world class talent in a plethora of positions. Modern management asphyxiates the need for individual brilliance.
Not to give a disservice to what you’ve said and whilst there is merit and some truth to it I don’t think it applies strictly here because the likes of Watkins, Isak, Bailey and Gordon are actually very good players. I didn’t mention players like Murphy, Almiron, Wilson, Duran who also play for those clubs.
You’re implying it’s mostly playing under those managers that make those players what they are but I hugely disagree. If you watch Gordon, Isak, Bailey, Watkins etc they are very expressive players. I don’t watch Isak finish the way he does and think “oh that’s Eddie Howe coaching that, he’d be terrible under Ten Hag”.
Eddie Howe was a league one defender, I don’t think he has the facilities to teach Isak to finish with the finesse he does. In the same way Emery can’t teach Bailey how to run very very fast and dribble.

Newcastle also did not accumulate more points than Man United last season, nor did they the season before. So I don’t think Eddie Howe’s “philosophy” to be that efficient in the grand scheme of things.
Ten Hags system evidently doesn’t get the best out of attackers but he is also terrible at identifying good attackers as per his signings. Newcastle paid 40 million for Anthony Gordon, we paid 80 million for Antony. Gordon could play for United and he’d still be miles ahead of Antony.
 
I think the extent of the change compared to last season has actually been disappointingly little. I didn't watch any of our pre-season games so can't comment on those but I thought we played really well against City in the Community Shield and also in the first half vs Fulham. The team looked more compact, were pressing better etc. We actually had the second highest defensive line in the league on the opening weekend. But against both Brighton and Liverpool, a lot of the same issues have resurfaced. Even against Brighton, where I do think there were positive signs in the first half, we mostly struggled to move the ball into their defensive third. Again, a constant issue for Ten Hag's United over his 2 seasons, we just don't seem to be able to progress the ball with any conviction and often resort to bypassing the midfield entirely by playing long from our defensive third.

And the stats are already starting to reflect the same much dissected problems with United's system - pressing structure is poor, struggle to get the ball into the opposition's defensive third, struggle to sustain pressure once if we do manage to get the ball into the opposition's defensive third because if we lose the ball there, our pressing structure is too poor to win it back or pin the opposition/defend transitions, defensive line is too deep and drops off too readily even when their starting position is high leaving a massive gap for the midfield to cover etc. Over three games (admittedly a very small sample but when it is repeating the same patterns as the 38 games last season, it isn't unreasonable to worry) -

GW3dEuPX0AAl7Ak


For reference, field tilt measures the relative number of touches in your defensive third vs the oppositions defensive third. Meaning, if you exclude all the touches by both teams in the middle third, if roughly 75% of all remaining touches happen in the opposition final third, then you have a field tilt of 75% in your favour. Now obviously, this needs to be contextualized - if you are keeping the ball in your own defensive third in the hopes of baiting the opposition press (think De Zerbi's Brighton), you will have a lower field tilt. Plus, obviously quality of opposition also matters. We've played Liverpool and Brighton - both excellent teams who we were never going to pin back and dominate for 90 mins - but again, this is a continuation of a pattern from last season. And it is interesting in the above graphic that both us and Arsenal have roughly the same field tilt (around 50%) but combining this stat with our average defensive line height does highlight familiar failings for United, in my view. Add the context of what % of our possession happen in our own half -

GW3dQlEXUAAGnN5


And again, our field tilt of ~50% is not necessarily because we are successfully baiting the opposition press. In fact, we spend relatively little time in possession in our own half. Also interesting how high Spurs are on both the % of possession in their own half and field tilt - suggests their possession structure works much better at getting the ball in the opposition third than ours does, and is also much better at sustaining pressure in the final third through their pressing structure. Again, the data clearly shows this (both the positive for Spurs and the issues for us -

GWkkvrHWsAAs7_a

Again, I'd add the caveat that Spurs being so good at these metrics does not equate to their impending glorious season or our impending doom. For one, Spurs cannot defend for shit. But the data does reveal a lot about tactical structures and intent. Guardiola and Postecoglou's teams (for instance) have a clear and visible tactical identity - they build patiently from the back, keep possession and move patiently through the thirds, if they lose the ball in the final third, they mostly press in an organized manner to pin teams back, and they play a high defensive line to compress the pitch to make their press more effective. Tactical intent is also clearly visible for Southampton (even though they seem, at least to me, to be in for a LONG season with how they are playing) - they are the lower table side most visibly trying to implement the Guardiola blueprint. Again, the usual caveats of only a three game sample size and we have to account for quality of opposition faced - it's not a coincidence that Leicester's field tilt and defensive line height are the exact mirror of Spurs'. Or that Ipswich, having faced City and Liverpool are among the teams with the poorest field tilts and deepest defensive line.

But again, our numbers are a continuation of last season's. I don't expect Ten Hag to ever fix our defensive issues. A while back, there was a video doing the rounds of Ruud Gullit and Ten Hag debating his Ajax side's transition defending (and how much space they leave in midfield) and while Ten Hag conceded some points, his basic stance of 'these are risks you have to take to play an aggressive, entertaining style of football' is quite revealing about his coaching principles. He, much like everyone else in the world, sees the issues with our transition defending, he just thinks the risk is worth the reward if you can get the attack clicking. Problem is, we've not improved in possession nearly enough to justify this structure, yet. I would give him till the next international. We have a relatively comfortable fixture list coming up, which should give him ample opportunity to show the improvements in possession. If the numbers still look terrible, we should thank him for the two trophies and move him on and start assessing the tactical structures (and their fit to the Premier League) of the likes of Ruben Amorim, Sebastian Hoeness and Simone Inzaghi.

I'd also add that I think the issues with defensive line height are largely an issue with how direct play rather than the pace (or lack thereof) of our backline but this post is already much longer than I intended so I will leave you to it.

Bonus graph for the 'our players are too lazy/not inclined to press/unwilling to engage with the physicality of the league' crowd -

GWs2v8iWoAABVMl

Damning stuff, but obvious to anyone who's watched us play.

ETH has been absolutely horrible.
 
Field tilt? feck off :lol:

File that with xG, assists and forward passing stats as complete bollocks.
 
I think the extent of the change compared to last season has actually been disappointingly little. I didn't watch any of our pre-season games so can't comment on those but I thought we played really well against City in the Community Shield and also in the first half vs Fulham. The team looked more compact, were pressing better etc. We actually had the second highest defensive line in the league on the opening weekend. But against both Brighton and Liverpool, a lot of the same issues have resurfaced. Even against Brighton, where I do think there were positive signs in the first half, we mostly struggled to move the ball into their defensive third. Again, a constant issue for Ten Hag's United over his 2 seasons, we just don't seem to be able to progress the ball with any conviction and often resort to bypassing the midfield entirely by playing long from our defensive third.

And the stats are already starting to reflect the same much dissected problems with United's system - pressing structure is poor, struggle to get the ball into the opposition's defensive third, struggle to sustain pressure once if we do manage to get the ball into the opposition's defensive third because if we lose the ball there, our pressing structure is too poor to win it back or pin the opposition/defend transitions, defensive line is too deep and drops off too readily even when their starting position is high leaving a massive gap for the midfield to cover etc. Over three games (admittedly a very small sample but when it is repeating the same patterns as the 38 games last season, it isn't unreasonable to worry) -

GW3dEuPX0AAl7Ak


For reference, field tilt measures the relative number of touches in your defensive third vs the oppositions defensive third. Meaning, if you exclude all the touches by both teams in the middle third, if roughly 75% of all remaining touches happen in the opposition final third, then you have a field tilt of 75% in your favour. Now obviously, this needs to be contextualized - if you are keeping the ball in your own defensive third in the hopes of baiting the opposition press (think De Zerbi's Brighton), you will have a lower field tilt. Plus, obviously quality of opposition also matters. We've played Liverpool and Brighton - both excellent teams who we were never going to pin back and dominate for 90 mins - but again, this is a continuation of a pattern from last season. And it is interesting in the above graphic that both us and Arsenal have roughly the same field tilt (around 50%) but combining this stat with our average defensive line height does highlight familiar failings for United, in my view. Add the context of what % of our possession happen in our own half -

GW3dQlEXUAAGnN5


And again, our field tilt of ~50% is not necessarily because we are successfully baiting the opposition press. In fact, we spend relatively little time in possession in our own half. Also interesting how high Spurs are on both the % of possession in their own half and field tilt - suggests their possession structure works much better at getting the ball in the opposition third than ours does, and is also much better at sustaining pressure in the final third through their pressing structure. Again, the data clearly shows this (both the positive for Spurs and the issues for us -

GWkkvrHWsAAs7_a

Again, I'd add the caveat that Spurs being so good at these metrics does not equate to their impending glorious season or our impending doom. For one, Spurs cannot defend for shit. But the data does reveal a lot about tactical structures and intent. Guardiola and Postecoglou's teams (for instance) have a clear and visible tactical identity - they build patiently from the back, keep possession and move patiently through the thirds, if they lose the ball in the final third, they mostly press in an organized manner to pin teams back, and they play a high defensive line to compress the pitch to make their press more effective. Tactical intent is also clearly visible for Southampton (even though they seem, at least to me, to be in for a LONG season with how they are playing) - they are the lower table side most visibly trying to implement the Guardiola blueprint. Again, the usual caveats of only a three game sample size and we have to account for quality of opposition faced - it's not a coincidence that Leicester's field tilt and defensive line height are the exact mirror of Spurs'. Or that Ipswich, having faced City and Liverpool are among the teams with the poorest field tilts and deepest defensive line.

But again, our numbers are a continuation of last season's. I don't expect Ten Hag to ever fix our defensive issues. A while back, there was a video doing the rounds of Ruud Gullit and Ten Hag debating his Ajax side's transition defending (and how much space they leave in midfield) and while Ten Hag conceded some points, his basic stance of 'these are risks you have to take to play an aggressive, entertaining style of football' is quite revealing about his coaching principles. He, much like everyone else in the world, sees the issues with our transition defending, he just thinks the risk is worth the reward if you can get the attack clicking. Problem is, we've not improved in possession nearly enough to justify this structure, yet. I would give him till the next international. We have a relatively comfortable fixture list coming up, which should give him ample opportunity to show the improvements in possession. If the numbers still look terrible, we should thank him for the two trophies and move him on and start assessing the tactical structures (and their fit to the Premier League) of the likes of Ruben Amorim, Sebastian Hoeness and Simone Inzaghi.

I'd also add that I think the issues with defensive line height are largely an issue with how direct play rather than the pace (or lack thereof) of our backline but this post is already much longer than I intended so I will leave you to it.

Bonus graph for the 'our players are too lazy/not inclined to press/unwilling to engage with the physicality of the league' crowd -

GWs2v8iWoAABVMl
This is a great articulation of how we are playing, hopefully helps a LOT of others who are struggling to join the dots behind what their eyes are seeing. Thanks for taking the time to post.

Also, a post is never too long if it’s informative and well written.
 
Do you not think the way we're set up makes these mistakes more likely? When Casemiro is basically playing as the lone midfielder while the other two bomb forward as attackers in possession, are mistakes not likely to happen? Considering Casemiro's strengths and weaknesses, that's a recipe for disaster and everyone can see it except for ETH apparently. Mainoo dropped into his position after he came off and the same thing happened again. Also, when something like this is happening so consistently, it's absolutely the managers intention for this to be the way we are set up. He's basically set up the team treating Casemiro as De Jong, who is press resistant and capable of bringing the ball out defence at a much higher level. The system is absolutely the cause of the habitual errors we keep seeing. It wouldn't be as much of a problem if we actually scored goals, but at the moment it's very much high risk with no reward.

Sure, the errors don't happen every game but that's because most teams don't press as hard or effectively as Liverpool, which really highlighted Casemiro's deficiencies. But on that note, shouldn't a manager play to his players strengths or at least not make him the focal point of the whole system when he clearly isn't the kind of player it requires.
This.
A manager should be able to set up a system to suit the players he has available. Not have a system and then try to force players who are clearly unsuitable for the system.
It’s not just Casemiro, I think that any player would struggle as a single DM in a gaping midfield. There's a reason why many top teams play with 2 DMs.
 
Usually a team that can't attack is pretty good in defence to balance the play so that they concede less. It's extremely rare to find a top team that can't defend and can't attack. The worst part is we also don't have a midfield too. This is unacceptable after spending more than 600 mil and in his 3rd year
 
Do you not think the way we're set up makes these mistakes more likely? When Casemiro is basically playing as the lone midfielder while the other two bomb forward as attackers in possession, are mistakes not likely to happen? Considering Casemiro's strengths and weaknesses, that's a recipe for disaster and everyone can see it except for ETH apparently. Mainoo dropped into his position after he came off and the same thing happened again. Also, when something like this is happening so consistently, it's absolutely the managers intention for this to be the way we are set up. He's basically set up the team treating Casemiro as De Jong, who is press resistant and capable of bringing the ball out defence at a much higher level. The system is absolutely the cause of the habitual errors we keep seeing. It wouldn't be as much of a problem if we actually scored goals, but at the moment it's very much high risk with no reward.

Sure, the errors don't happen every game but that's because most teams don't press as hard or effectively as Liverpool, which really highlighted Casemiro's deficiencies. But on that note, shouldn't a manager play to his players strengths or at least not make him the focal point of the whole system when he clearly isn't the kind of player it requires.

This would be more understandable 6-12 months into a managers reign. But we're a 3rd season into this project now after 5 transfer windows.
 
Usually a team that can't attack is pretty good in defence to balance the play so that they concede less. It's extremely rare to find a top team that can't defend and can't attack. The worst part is we also don't have a midfield too. This is unacceptable after spending more than 600 mil and in his 3rd year

Some people have a different vision and would say being able to attack, defend and having a functional midfield isn't necessary in modern football.
 
Some people have a different vision and would say being able to attack, defend and having a functional midfield isn't necessary in modern football.
Those people also think that (regularly) winning isn't important.
 
AWB improved some aspects but seemed to get worse in others. Overall I'd say he at stayed about the same rather than declined. De Gea didn't really get worse under him either, he stayed about the same as he had the previous three and a half seasons before ETH joined. Martial was just destroyed by injuries (which started before ETH) so wouldn't link that to ETH either.

Otherwise yeah I'd agree with the rest of it.

I think AWB was brilliant defensively, but he somehow negated that side of his game also. In the brief bits he's played for West Ham, he has actually looked decent. Even in attack!

Martial got worse somehow under ETH in my opinion, he became absolutely useless whenever he played. I look at both players and I can say that I would have took their pre-ETH version/form over what they showed under him. Whether that is entirely his fault is another matter, but it's probably not Ten Hag's great coaching that has made Dalot look better either.
 
I think AWB was brilliant defensively, but he somehow negated that side of his game also. In the brief bits he's played for West Ham, he has actually looked decent. Even in attack!

Martial got worse somehow under ETH in my opinion, he became absolutely useless whenever he played. I look at both players and I can say that I would have took their pre-ETH version/form over what they showed under him. Whether that is entirely his fault is another matter, but it's probably not Ten Hag's great coaching that has made Dalot look better either.
Bruno looks less effective as well in Ten Hag’s tactics than before Ten Hag.
 
Come on, that's ridiculous.

Onana hasn't been as bad as many make out and I still haven't written him off, but there are huge question marks over him. Most of the teams who have a big focus on building out from the back would probably take Onana (and would then have the positioning and team organisation to take advantage of his passing more than we do), but the rest of the teams wouldn't even hesitate to take Pope. Other than his passing he's one of the best keepers in the league and is solid to very good at every aspect.
Totally agree, it's absolutely relative to what you want to do with the team. If you're going to play out to bring the other team on and beat the press then Onana is probably good for that. It needs to be effective though, and see us actually successfully playing out more often than not and mounting good attacks to make that worthwhile.

As it is in reality, we struggle when pressed, make mistakes and give up a lot of chances. We now have a keeper who isn't a very good shot stopper trying to keep them out.
 
I think the extent of the change compared to last season has actually been disappointingly little. I didn't watch any of our pre-season games so can't comment on those but I thought we played really well against City in the Community Shield and also in the first half vs Fulham. The team looked more compact, were pressing better etc. We actually had the second highest defensive line in the league on the opening weekend. But against both Brighton and Liverpool, a lot of the same issues have resurfaced. Even against Brighton, where I do think there were positive signs in the first half, we mostly struggled to move the ball into their defensive third. Again, a constant issue for Ten Hag's United over his 2 seasons, we just don't seem to be able to progress the ball with any conviction and often resort to bypassing the midfield entirely by playing long from our defensive third.

And the stats are already starting to reflect the same much dissected problems with United's system - pressing structure is poor, struggle to get the ball into the opposition's defensive third, struggle to sustain pressure once if we do manage to get the ball into the opposition's defensive third because if we lose the ball there, our pressing structure is too poor to win it back or pin the opposition/defend transitions, defensive line is too deep and drops off too readily even when their starting position is high leaving a massive gap for the midfield to cover etc. Over three games (admittedly a very small sample but when it is repeating the same patterns as the 38 games last season, it isn't unreasonable to worry) -

GW3dEuPX0AAl7Ak


For reference, field tilt measures the relative number of touches in your defensive third vs the oppositions defensive third. Meaning, if you exclude all the touches by both teams in the middle third, if roughly 75% of all remaining touches happen in the opposition final third, then you have a field tilt of 75% in your favour. Now obviously, this needs to be contextualized - if you are keeping the ball in your own defensive third in the hopes of baiting the opposition press (think De Zerbi's Brighton), you will have a lower field tilt. Plus, obviously quality of opposition also matters. We've played Liverpool and Brighton - both excellent teams who we were never going to pin back and dominate for 90 mins - but again, this is a continuation of a pattern from last season. And it is interesting in the above graphic that both us and Arsenal have roughly the same field tilt (around 50%) but combining this stat with our average defensive line height does highlight familiar failings for United, in my view. Add the context of what % of our possession happen in our own half -

GW3dQlEXUAAGnN5


And again, our field tilt of ~50% is not necessarily because we are successfully baiting the opposition press. In fact, we spend relatively little time in possession in our own half. Also interesting how high Spurs are on both the % of possession in their own half and field tilt - suggests their possession structure works much better at getting the ball in the opposition third than ours does, and is also much better at sustaining pressure in the final third through their pressing structure. Again, the data clearly shows this (both the positive for Spurs and the issues for us -

GWkkvrHWsAAs7_a

Again, I'd add the caveat that Spurs being so good at these metrics does not equate to their impending glorious season or our impending doom. For one, Spurs cannot defend for shit. But the data does reveal a lot about tactical structures and intent. Guardiola and Postecoglou's teams (for instance) have a clear and visible tactical identity - they build patiently from the back, keep possession and move patiently through the thirds, if they lose the ball in the final third, they mostly press in an organized manner to pin teams back, and they play a high defensive line to compress the pitch to make their press more effective. Tactical intent is also clearly visible for Southampton (even though they seem, at least to me, to be in for a LONG season with how they are playing) - they are the lower table side most visibly trying to implement the Guardiola blueprint. Again, the usual caveats of only a three game sample size and we have to account for quality of opposition faced - it's not a coincidence that Leicester's field tilt and defensive line height are the exact mirror of Spurs'. Or that Ipswich, having faced City and Liverpool are among the teams with the poorest field tilts and deepest defensive line.

But again, our numbers are a continuation of last season's. I don't expect Ten Hag to ever fix our defensive issues. A while back, there was a video doing the rounds of Ruud Gullit and Ten Hag debating his Ajax side's transition defending (and how much space they leave in midfield) and while Ten Hag conceded some points, his basic stance of 'these are risks you have to take to play an aggressive, entertaining style of football' is quite revealing about his coaching principles. He, much like everyone else in the world, sees the issues with our transition defending, he just thinks the risk is worth the reward if you can get the attack clicking. Problem is, we've not improved in possession nearly enough to justify this structure, yet. I would give him till the next international. We have a relatively comfortable fixture list coming up, which should give him ample opportunity to show the improvements in possession. If the numbers still look terrible, we should thank him for the two trophies and move him on and start assessing the tactical structures (and their fit to the Premier League) of the likes of Ruben Amorim, Sebastian Hoeness and Simone Inzaghi.

I'd also add that I think the issues with defensive line height are largely an issue with how direct play rather than the pace (or lack thereof) of our backline but this post is already much longer than I intended so I will leave you to it.

Bonus graph for the 'our players are too lazy/not inclined to press/unwilling to engage with the physicality of the league' crowd -

GWs2v8iWoAABVMl
The most damning graph of all. Our players work harder, recover the ball more, but because of the shitheap structure and philosophy when we have the ball, it's all for nothing.

Mind you, much like with Onana's save %s last season, it's also a symptom of a shit team playing shit football.

Ole had us relying on individual moments of brilliance to score goals. Ten Hag has us relying on dozens of moments of individual defensive brilliance to not concede 3+ goals a game.
The volume of defending our players need to do is ridiculous. It is a consequence of high risk approach and no actual clue how to move the ball to the final third apart from being "direct".
 
Your correct i quoted the wrong stats we man utd had the most individual injuries 45, chelsea 43, newcastle 41.
However Newcastle had the longest total time injured at 1950 days, chelsea 1745, man utd 1620.
More telling is that Newcastle and Chelsea injuries caused them to miss more games than utd, newcastle 245, chelsea 214 man utd 202.

As we had our players available for substantially more games than newcastle snd chelsea it was a pretty poor effort by ETH to finish behind them in the league.

Stats are from premierinjuries.com..
I think ETH should be on his way soon as well but still, leaning on statistics like this without context makes them less useful. Which Newcastle players were out vs which united players? For how long were their key players out? As for Chelsea, they have about 500 players so is it really a surprise that they'd come through an injury 'crisis' more easily?

Again, I think we need a change from ETH at this point, but to say that we were hampered by injuries more than most is just the reality.
 
Usually a team that can't attack is pretty good in defence to balance the play so that they concede less. It's extremely rare to find a top team that can't defend and can't attack. The worst part is we also don't have a midfield too. This is unacceptable after spending more than 600 mil and in his 3rd year
Yes, but you see, it’s not his fault…or something
 
I've also gone from hopeful after the cup final to really downhearted now. We need to start seeing good performances and wins. I want us to blow Southampton away by a few goals and get the confidence up, I just can't see it though. We very rarely have a comfortable win these days or even a win at all.
Here’s the thing, we might just do that. You know why? Southampton so far are the worst team in the league and look like they won’t a scratch card competition to play in the PL this season. The problem is we’ll be right back to this shite as soon as we come up against a semi decent team from the top half of the table.
 
I think ETH should be on his way soon as well but still, leaning on statistics like this without context makes them less useful. Which Newcastle players were out vs which united players? For how long were their key players out? As for Chelsea, they have about 500 players so is it really a surprise that they'd come through an injury 'crisis' more easily?

Again, I think we need a change from ETH at this point, but to say that we were hampered by injuries more than most is just the reality.

Do you have those stats yourself?
 
Nope, but like I said, those facts mean very little in isolation. And they also confirm that we were unusually injury hit last year.

Fair enough but if you don't have those stats yourself, that you say are needed to contextualize which team was affect by injuries most. Then how can you say it's just reality that United were the most affected by injuries compared to the likes of Chelsea and Newcastle? :confused:
 
I think the extent of the change compared to last season has actually been disappointingly little. I didn't watch any of our pre-season games so can't comment on those but I thought we played really well against City in the Community Shield and also in the first half vs Fulham. The team looked more compact, were pressing better etc. We actually had the second highest defensive line in the league on the opening weekend. But against both Brighton and Liverpool, a lot of the same issues have resurfaced. Even against Brighton, where I do think there were positive signs in the first half, we mostly struggled to move the ball into their defensive third. Again, a constant issue for Ten Hag's United over his 2 seasons, we just don't seem to be able to progress the ball with any conviction and often resort to bypassing the midfield entirely by playing long from our defensive third.

And the stats are already starting to reflect the same much dissected problems with United's system - pressing structure is poor, struggle to get the ball into the opposition's defensive third, struggle to sustain pressure once if we do manage to get the ball into the opposition's defensive third because if we lose the ball there, our pressing structure is too poor to win it back or pin the opposition/defend transitions, defensive line is too deep and drops off too readily even when their starting position is high leaving a massive gap for the midfield to cover etc. Over three games (admittedly a very small sample but when it is repeating the same patterns as the 38 games last season, it isn't unreasonable to worry) -

GW3dEuPX0AAl7Ak


For reference, field tilt measures the relative number of touches in your defensive third vs the oppositions defensive third. Meaning, if you exclude all the touches by both teams in the middle third, if roughly 75% of all remaining touches happen in the opposition final third, then you have a field tilt of 75% in your favour. Now obviously, this needs to be contextualized - if you are keeping the ball in your own defensive third in the hopes of baiting the opposition press (think De Zerbi's Brighton), you will have a lower field tilt. Plus, obviously quality of opposition also matters. We've played Liverpool and Brighton - both excellent teams who we were never going to pin back and dominate for 90 mins - but again, this is a continuation of a pattern from last season. And it is interesting in the above graphic that both us and Arsenal have roughly the same field tilt (around 50%) but combining this stat with our average defensive line height does highlight familiar failings for United, in my view. Add the context of what % of our possession happen in our own half -

GW3dQlEXUAAGnN5


And again, our field tilt of ~50% is not necessarily because we are successfully baiting the opposition press. In fact, we spend relatively little time in possession in our own half. Also interesting how high Spurs are on both the % of possession in their own half and field tilt - suggests their possession structure works much better at getting the ball in the opposition third than ours does, and is also much better at sustaining pressure in the final third through their pressing structure. Again, the data clearly shows this (both the positive for Spurs and the issues for us -

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Again, I'd add the caveat that Spurs being so good at these metrics does not equate to their impending glorious season or our impending doom. For one, Spurs cannot defend for shit. But the data does reveal a lot about tactical structures and intent. Guardiola and Postecoglou's teams (for instance) have a clear and visible tactical identity - they build patiently from the back, keep possession and move patiently through the thirds, if they lose the ball in the final third, they mostly press in an organized manner to pin teams back, and they play a high defensive line to compress the pitch to make their press more effective. Tactical intent is also clearly visible for Southampton (even though they seem, at least to me, to be in for a LONG season with how they are playing) - they are the lower table side most visibly trying to implement the Guardiola blueprint. Again, the usual caveats of only a three game sample size and we have to account for quality of opposition faced - it's not a coincidence that Leicester's field tilt and defensive line height are the exact mirror of Spurs'. Or that Ipswich, having faced City and Liverpool are among the teams with the poorest field tilts and deepest defensive line.

But again, our numbers are a continuation of last season's. I don't expect Ten Hag to ever fix our defensive issues. A while back, there was a video doing the rounds of Ruud Gullit and Ten Hag debating his Ajax side's transition defending (and how much space they leave in midfield) and while Ten Hag conceded some points, his basic stance of 'these are risks you have to take to play an aggressive, entertaining style of football' is quite revealing about his coaching principles. He, much like everyone else in the world, sees the issues with our transition defending, he just thinks the risk is worth the reward if you can get the attack clicking. Problem is, we've not improved in possession nearly enough to justify this structure, yet. I would give him till the next international. We have a relatively comfortable fixture list coming up, which should give him ample opportunity to show the improvements in possession. If the numbers still look terrible, we should thank him for the two trophies and move him on and start assessing the tactical structures (and their fit to the Premier League) of the likes of Ruben Amorim, Sebastian Hoeness and Simone Inzaghi.

I'd also add that I think the issues with defensive line height are largely an issue with how direct play rather than the pace (or lack thereof) of our backline but this post is already much longer than I intended so I will leave you to it.

Bonus graph for the 'our players are too lazy/not inclined to press/unwilling to engage with the physicality of the league' crowd -

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Excellent post! Nothing really to add. The issues are clearly mostly tactical and less so about personnel. It's disappointing and demoralising to see this manager kept despite all of this. I have stated this before but I firmly believe a proper manager would have this team perform noticeably better in a month's time.

Ten Hag just isn't it. Far from it, in fact. He was always a risk and appointing him was worth trying, but it's obviously not going to happen and persisting with him is just utterly pointless. There isn't going to be this moment of epiphany, recruitement, or anything, when everything clicks together and this team suddenly goes from utter shit to world class.
 
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My take on the injury front is that the losses of Martinez and Shaw for virtually the w tire season did significantly impact our overall team performances, but that’s no excuse for our ineptitude at the keeper position and the lack of goals that contributed to us only managing 8th place in the PL.
 
Fair enough but if you don't have those stats yourself, that you say are needed to contextualize which team was affect by injuries most. Then how can you say it's just reality that United were the most affected by injuries compared to the likes of Chelsea and Newcastle? :confused:
I didn't say that, did I?
 
My take on the injury front is that the losses of Martinez and Shaw for virtually the w tire season did significantly impact our overall team performances, but that’s no excuse for our ineptitude at the keeper position and the lack of goals that contributed to us only managing 8th place in the PL.
It definitely did. I think with Onana, we haven't got the use that was intended from him. He might be too reliant on a very specific style of play and the right players in front of him which hasn't been the case. It will be interesting to see if we have a solid fit defence for the season how everything will work.
 
Well we gotta back him for a few months first right? Anyway, INEOS already only extended his contract by a year. We probably wouldn't have to sack him but if we don't further extend him, he would know he is a lame duck manager and walk anyway.
 






If this is true, I'll be shocked if he's here at the start of next season. Could possibly be gone as early as Nov/Dec too IMO.
 
It's a massive disservice to accredit individual accolades in performances without assessing the relativity of the system and coaches they are playing under in retrospect.

I'm subjectively confident that neither Isak, Gordon or Harvey Barnes in this instance have the same output in a Erik Ten Hag outfit compared to the way they are deployed under Howe's philosophy. Also consider the neutrality in the way United progress the ball from the wider areas it requires so much self-intuitive attribution as most of the chance creation doesn't stem from the midfield but from the wide play which explains why Hojlund was bereft of service last season as would any traditional 9 in the way Erik organizes the phases of play.

Additionally, the season before last Newcastle had statistically the best defence in the league among Shar, Botman and Dan Burns. Not exactly the most renowned names on paper but another example of a defined system that exalts the players contribution. Reading the stats they averaged 52% possession over 38 games having the second lowest percentile for the amount of touches in their defensive penalty area (behind Arsenal). You could throw a Maguire into that Newcastle team that particular season under those parameters and he churns out high level performances as the approach is discernable looking at the data, low block with a flat three midfield that's hard to break down.

A players value massively hinges on perception of the teams collective performances, the only exception is for world class players but because of how compressed the modern game of football has become , there's almost next to teams in world football outside of Madrid that possess world class talent in a plethora of positions. Modern management asphyxiates the need for individual brilliance.
There is no substitute for individual brilliance. The best teams have the best players it’s quite often that simple. The best players allow you to play better systems and play better football because of the consistency in their ability to execute the simple and their ability to execute the sublime.

A great example of this is Salah last game. He made a simple run, a perfect right footed cross to the back post and Liverpool scored. He executed the correct pass at the correct time. Decision and precision = goal.

We are actually doing tactically the right things, or at least the things other managers get lauded for. So I find it amusing this season at least when people say we have no plan, we do, or that we aren’t doing X Y Z. I think we’ve been on the wrong side of errors and variance. Over the season I expect this to balance out. Think about the Garnacho goal etc.

For example watch 13mins in. It’s a really lovely and honest critique and bit of analysis of the difference between us and Liverpool. It’s decision making not the principles themselves that are going wrong here:

 
It definitely did. I think with Onana, we haven't got the use that was intended from him. He might be too reliant on a very specific style of play and the right players in front of him which hasn't been the case. It will be interesting to see if we have a solid fit defence for the season how everything will work.

Fewer shots on goal would definitely help Onana, but he needs to improve every aspect of his play -- positioning when under threat, shot stopping itself, command of the box, organizing his back line, short and long ball distribution. There's no aspect of his game about which one could plausibly argue meets the standard of what is expected of a United keeper. Or even a Spurs keeper.
 
Fewer shots on goal would definitely help Onana, but he needs to improve every aspect of his play -- positioning when under threat, shot stopping itself, command of the box, organizing his back line, short and long ball distribution. There's no aspect of his game about which one could plausibly argue meets the standard of what is expected of a United keeper. Or even a Spurs keeper.

That just isn't true at all, though, is it. His distribution is probably at least top 5 in the world.
 
If this is true, I'll be shocked if he's here at the start of next season. Could possibly be gone as early as Nov/Dec too IMO.
If this is true, I cant believe why we kept him, even if we had a fine season,, He has to go, better now than tomorrow.. If not true, it still better now than tomorrow
 
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If this is true, I'll be shocked if he's here at the start of next season. Could possibly be gone as early as Nov/Dec too IMO.
He's got 4 very winnable games coming up to build a bit of momentum (Southampton, Barnsley, Palace & Twente) then comes Spurs, Porto and Villa leading into the next international break. If we are still struggling in the next 4, I think Spurs and Villa could be the tipping point of him going.

If he can build up a head of steam and get some decent results across those 3 games I think he'll be here until at least Christmas.
 
Well we gotta back him for a few months first right? Anyway, INEOS already only extended his contract by a year. We probably wouldn't have to sack him but if we don't further extend him, he would know he is a lame duck manager and walk anyway.
His contract runs for another two years. It would be quite remarkable to just keep him for the duration of it with similar performance.
 
He's got 4 very winnable games coming up to build a bit of momentum (Southampton, Barnsley, Palace & Twente) then comes Spurs, Porto and Villa leading into the next international break. If we are still struggling in the next 4, I think Spurs and Villa could be the tipping point of him going.

If he can build up a head of steam and get some decent results across those 3 games I think he'll be here until at least Christmas.

Well, I think he basically threw last season away in order to make his philosophy work, and to build the physical level of the squad. If that doesn't bear fruit this season, and the style of play still cedes possession and concedes 20 shots per game even to lower league level opposition, I don't think he'll survive, even if the results are acceptable.

For example, somehow fluking 4th with minimal improvement on last season's performances will not save his job IMO, whereas getting unlucky and ending up 5th or 6th, but with an effective, working tactical system, would save it IMO.
 
Yes, but you see, it’s not his fault…or something
No, no you don't get it. Having any of our key players injured means that we are unable to defend or attack. Having any defender out also means that our midfield can't function, obviously. You see, ETH's system is special and injuries clearly impact us greater than other teams since the system is so advanced. Duh
 
There is no substitute for individual brilliance. The best teams have the best players it’s quite often that simple. The best players allow you to play better systems and play better football because of the consistency in their ability to execute the simple and their ability to execute the sublime.

A great example of this is Salah last game. He made a simple run, a perfect right footed cross to the back post and Liverpool scored. He executed the correct pass at the correct time. Decision and precision = goal.

We are actually doing tactically the right things, or at least the things other managers get lauded for. So I find it amusing this season at least when people say we have no plan, we do, or that we aren’t doing X Y Z. I think we’ve been on the wrong side of errors and variance. Over the season I expect this to balance out. Think about the Garnacho goal etc.

For example watch 13mins in. It’s a really lovely and honest critique and bit of analysis of the difference between us and Liverpool. It’s decision making not the principles themselves that are going wrong here:

Have to disagree. I could take over right now and ask the team to play 2011 Barca style tiki-taka with Casemiro playing the Messi role. Same principles that Pep gets lauded for. Not sure I'd be offered the same praise after getting walloped by a cricket score at home to Ipswich.

Either ETH has to coach a system that the players at his disposal can competently execute or he teaches them to play his complex but rewarding system or he signs players who arrive already knowing the 'ETH way' and can hit the ground running from day one.

Considering he seems to be pretty shit at the first two, we can hardly blame the club for going with option 3 and signing a bunch of players who already know him and his so-called style.
 
Here’s the thing, we might just do that. You know why? Southampton so far are the worst team in the league and look like they won’t a scratch card competition to play in the PL this season. The problem is we’ll be right back to this shite as soon as we come up against a semi decent team from the top half of the table.
I'm not so sure. Sheffield united were beyond terrible last season, and in the away game vs them last year we looked pretty shite. There was large periods of the game where they were the better team.
 
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