"Easy Side of the Draw"

[Wonder Pigeon]

Am I going mad, is it rose-tinted glasses misremembering my youth, or are conversations about the "easy side of the draw" in international tournaments a relatively recent thing? It's honestly not something I remember being talked about much before the Gareth Southgate England era, and while he's been in charge it seems to come up every tournament. The first time I remember a lot of talk about it was in the genius of Southgate's England losing to Belgium in 2018, which put them on the "easier side" of the World Cup bracket, where they were outplayed and beaten by the "easier" team of Croatia, ultimately leading them to lose to Belgium, again.

Is this a narrative that comes up as much outside of England? I don't remember Italy's World Cup win in 06 being put down to the "easy" draw even though their knockouts were against Australia, Ukraine and that transitional German team. England are on the "easy" side again in this Euros but might play Italy, the holders with a better big tournament pedigree, and Austria/Turkey, who have both looked exactly like the kinds of sides that have knocked England out before.

It's part of expanded tournaments I suppose, and it's a natural fan response to get excited about games that look easier to win on paper, and be relieved about avoiding sides that you're nervous about. But it definitely seems accepted these days that one half of a tournament bracket is going to be weaker. Typical English hubris, or another symptom of international football's decline (no fear factor about the Dutch and Italians)?

 

[Pexbo]

Not new by any stretch. This is particularly lopsided in terms of sides of draw but with any tournament you always look at your team’s potential route to the final.

 

[Chairman Steve]

After Iceland in 2016, I would have thought certain sections of the English media and fans would err on the side of caution when crowing about having easy knockout draws.

 

[DWelbz19]

It's something you only think about it in the moment. It's forgotten after a while when the dust settles (more so if you win it)

 

[amolbhatia50k]

Nothing new. We tend to notice it with clubs too. It is an easy draw. The biggest names on your side of the draw are Italy and Netherlands both of whom it seems nobody at all rates.

 

[Globule]

I'm English, so can't answer whether it's talked about much outside of England, but this topic predates Southgate.

There's usually a more favourable side of the draw, and it's not an issue if hubris or overconfidence. It's easier, not easy.

 

[Offside]

After Iceland in 2016, I would have thought certain sections of the English media and fans would err on the side of caution when crowing about having easy knockout draws.

It’s amazing how they’re doing it again talking about who they’ll be playing in the quarter / semi finals.

 

[El Zoido]

I’m not really seeing any England fans gloating about England having an easy draw. It’s mostly people that hate England calling them jammy. Like, every England fan I’ve ever met thinks we’re complete shite and will lose to Slovakia. I just don’t know where the narrative comes from, every England fan is miserly and expects the team to be boring and lose every game.

 

[KirkDuyt]

After the draw we got with our 3rd place, it's all we talk about in Holland.

We also all agree that we will just repeat 2008 and 2021 and get beaten by the easy opponent.

 

[Reapersoul20]

Yes, England have the easy side of the draw.

Yes its come up in every tournament.

Yes its coming home

 

[giorno]

Is this a narrative that comes up as much outside of England? I don't remember Italy's World Cup win in 06 being put down to the "easy" draw even though their knockouts were against Australia, Ukraine and that transitional German team.

Yes and it was, in Italy. We were in fact not only talking about having an easy path to the SF(which turned out to be anything but, against the Aussies), but also the possibility of an easy run to the final if only Germany did us the favour of beating Argentina(they did! Thank you Germany!)

 

[Gio]

Don't think it's a new thing. Plenty put down Brazil's win in 2002 due to 'only' facing Turkey (twice), China, Costa Rica, Belgium, England and Germany. Plenty thought England and France had lucked out at Euro 1992 drawing in with the hosts Sweden and Denmark who were not even good enough to qualify.

 

[Wonder Pigeon]

Does the opposite happen? Does anyone's winning achievement ever get lauded more for doing it from the "hard" side?

 

[Alex99]

The draw is objectively more favourable on one side, but to use 2018 as the example, people kept specifically naming Italy, Netherlands and Germany as teams that England were lucky to avoid (despite the first two not even qualifying for the tournament, and the latter failing to get out of their group), with the argument being that England would have been knocked out before the semi-finals had they had to play any of them. However, when England beat Germany in Euro 2020, Germany were suddenly a nothing opponent, and in Euro 2024 when England are on the same side of the draw as Netherlands and Italy, suddenly England have an "easy" path to the final.

They're like Schrodinger's Opponent. Simultaneously an easily beatable opponent when England (might) have to play them and an insurmountable obstacle if England don't have to.

Probably an element of England being a bigger topic of discussion than other nations on here though.

Any tournament with a fixed knockout bracket is going to be prone to "easier" sides of the draw. They could have actually fixed that with a 24 team format by expanding the ranking of third placed teams to the first and second placed teams, and doing 1st vs 16th, 2nd vs 15th, etc.

That could have given us this bracket:

Spain vs Slovenia
Switzerland vs France

England vs Denmark
Portugal vs Netherlands
--------------------------------------------
Germany vs Slovakia
Turkey vs Belgium

Romania vs Italy
Austria vs Georgia

If you want to avoid teams from the same group instantly playing each other again, swap Denmark and Italy around.

 

[Kirk lazarus]

I'd bet Switzerland , one of the teams who supposedly make it the easier side of the draw are not quaking looking at the prospect of England , Holland and Italy.

It's got a reverse. flip , it's an easier draw for the underdog aswell and I'd imagine they are less likely to be complacent .

It's the next 90 mins , do or die .

 

[Markolan]

When EURO championship had 16 teams it was pretty much impossible to see "easy" sides of the bracket because the KO stage started with 8 teams, from the QF so usually all the 5-6 top NT were there..

With 16 teams in the bracket is normal one of the sides is more doable. Let's see in the past 3 editions which NT got more luck though:

- EURO 2016 Croatia, Poland, Suisse, Portugal, Belgium, Wales, Hungary, NIR in the easy half.. Spain, Italy, Germany, France. England, Iceland, Slovakia, Ireland in the other half

- EURO 2020 Spain, Croatia, Suisse, France, Belgium, Portugal, Italy, Austria in the tough side. Germany, England, Czechia, Denmark, Netherlands, Wales, Sweden Ukraine in the other one

-EURO 2024 Spain, Georgia, Germany, Denmark, France, Belgium,Portugal, Slovenia vs
England, Slovakia, Suisse, Italy, Romania, Netherlands, Austria, Turkey

Spain and France the most unlucky of them all, 3 times out of 3 got the hard route while Netherlands and Wales the luckiest..
All the other teams have been have bern sometimes maybe luck soemtimes maybe not

 

[Berbasbullet]

I’d like to know what the draw would look like if all of the favourites won their group, suspect it’d be seen as more balanced.

 

[spe88]

After Iceland in 2016, I would have thought certain sections of the English media and fans would err on the side of caution when crowing about having easy knockout draws.

Not sure it’s all or just the English fans. I’ve seen as many Scottish saying England have the ‘easy side’ as they must feel deep down England have a great chance.

 

[Cutch]

I’m not really seeing any England fans gloating about England having an easy draw. It’s mostly people that hate England calling them jammy. Like, every England fan I’ve ever met thinks we’re complete shite and will lose to Slovakia. I just don’t know where the narrative comes from, every England fan is miserly and expects the team to be boring and lose every game.

It is this in fairness. No one fit to believe Southgates luck

 

[bosnian_red]

It's always a thing in club and international football. United had a piss easy draw to the CL final in 2011 for example. You still have to heat who is in front of you so fair play for that. But beating teams who have a massive quality drop from your own team is not the same as beating the top teams. To win it, you'll eventually come up against the top side.

You shouldn't get any special praise for reaching a final if your route was piss easy. Fair play for reaching a final in a tough draw though. Those big games are quite often 50/50 games, so having a route where you have to play a big game 3 games in a row makes it significantly tougher than playing against teams you should be beating in every round.

 

[bosnian_red]

I’d like to know what the draw would look like if all of the favourites won their group, suspect it’d be seen as more balanced.

Still had England on the easier side. England playing a 3rd placed side in the round of 16 and a 2nd placed side in the quarter final while many others have a 1st placed side in the quarters and a 2nd placed team in the round of 16. Then also on the same half of draw as the 1st from group E where the top seed is Belgium who is nowhere near the other top teams.

It really couldn't have been hand picked any better.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

It’s been around for my entire lifetime and I’m old as feck.

 

[RobinLFC]

Still had England on the easier side. England playing a 3rd placed side in the round of 16 and a 2nd placed side in the quarter final while many others have a 1st placed side in the quarters and a 2nd placed team in the round of 16. Then also on the same half of draw as the 1st from group E where the top seed is Belgium who is nowhere near the other top teams.

It really couldn't have been hand picked any better.

Nowhere near Germany and Spain but that's about it. None of Italy, Netherlands, France, England, Portugal have looked convincing (or have had a game as convincing as ours against Romania).

 

[whitbyviking]

After Iceland in 2016, I would have thought certain sections of the English media and fans would err on the side of caution when crowing about having easy knockout draws.

It’s amazing how they’re doing it again talking about who they’ll be playing in the quarter / semi finals.

Whilst you could argue it is technically true England are in the "easy" side of the draw it is more often used as a stick to beat them with and deride any potential win, rather than a reason to "crow".

 

[Real Name]

Fek sake. If we hadnt concede in 90.+8 we would have a pretty easy path to the final.

 

[next_number_seven]

Am I going mad, is it rose-tinted glasses misremembering my youth, or are conversations about the "easy side of the draw" in international tournaments a relatively recent thing? It's honestly not something I remember being talked about much before the Gareth Southgate England era, and while he's been in charge it seems to come up every tournament. The first time I remember a lot of talk about it was in the genius of Southgate's England losing to Belgium in 2018, which put them on the "easier side" of the World Cup bracket, where they were outplayed and beaten by the "easier" team of Croatia, ultimately leading them to lose to Belgium, again.

Is this a narrative that comes up as much outside of England? I don't remember Italy's World Cup win in 06 being put down to the "easy" draw even though their knockouts were against Australia, Ukraine and that transitional German team. England are on the "easy" side again in this Euros but might play Italy, the holders with a better big tournament pedigree, and Austria/Turkey, who have both looked exactly like the kinds of sides that have knocked England out before.

It's part of expanded tournaments I suppose, and it's a natural fan response to get excited about games that look easier to win on paper, and be relieved about avoiding sides that you're nervous about. But it definitely seems accepted these days that one half of a tournament bracket is going to be weaker. Typical English hubris, or another symptom of international football's decline (no fear factor about the Dutch and Italians)?

Nothing new.
We used to have wall charts as kids (some of us still do as adults) and predict outcomes.

I remember Ireland in 2002 had a handy route to the final. If we had beaten Spain, we had South Korea in the 1/4s.

England, on paper at least, are the strongest team on their side of the draw.

Italy aren't great but they're Italy, so you'd expect them to be difficult.

 

[Bastian]

It’s amazing how they’re doing it again talking about who they’ll be playing in the quarter / semi finals.

And funnily enough the same press that had all but eviscerated this England team and the setup. But somehow they're still supposed to sail through.

The absolute worst part about the England team, and yes it has most had unsuitable managers who have chosen unbalanced teams to fit in their favourites, is the English media.

 

[The Cat]

At least the age old adage that is is better to be lucky than be good will finally be disproven by Southgate.

 

[saivet]

I find it hard to believe that the likes of Netherlands, Austria and Italy aren't also very happy with the draw.

Ultimately, if someone from this half of the draw wins the title, they won't give a shit, nor will it be remembered.

Argentina won the World Cup playing Australia, Netherlands and Croatia in the knock outs to make the final and no one cares or remembers.

 

[Gio]

The draw is objectively more favourable on one side, but to use 2018 as the example, people kept specifically naming Italy, Netherlands and Germany as teams that England were lucky to avoid (despite the first two not even qualifying for the tournament, and the latter failing to get out of their group), with the argument being that England would have been knocked out before the semi-finals had they had to play any of them. However, when England beat Germany in Euro 2020, Germany were suddenly a nothing opponent, and in Euro 2024 when England are on the same side of the draw as Netherlands and Italy, suddenly England have an "easy" path to the final.

Nah I think that is contrived.

In 2018 England were lucky to avoid the path that Belgium ended up with, because that was the two options on the table depending on who won the group. Belgium faced Mexico, Brazil and France. England faced Colombia, Sweden and Croatia. There was no sensible mention of Netherlands, Italy or Germany. Those countries were irrelevant - it was simply about the two paths that were on the table. One a lot more challenging than the other.

In 2020 I don't think Germany were re-evaluated after the England game based on a bias against England. They were already regarded as a fallen giant at a low ebb after the disaster in 2018. For example, in the Guardian's Euro 2020 preview, their fan's view was " I do not expect much from the Euros. I would be surprised if we make it out of the group."

Perhaps that view consolidated after the England game because they offered little in that game and England ended up looking a bit better all over. I'm not sure if that's a view borne out of a jealousy of England or just because Germany were a bit average at the time.

 

[Diego_Milito]

In international football the single most decisive factor is players' condition, even more so than players' mere ability.
After a full season many players are tired, some of them are trying to recover from exhaustion/injuries or are in desperate need of a break.

Which is why theoretically easy predictions are often proven wrong ... and one shouldn't be fooled by how big and mighty a team might sound on paper.

 

[Stadjer]

In the Netherlands we are very happy to be at the easy side of the draw.

Already seen a few opinions that we will reach the final because we wont lose to Austria twice and England has been absolute shit (relative to the quality of the players atleast)

Personally i think we beat Romania and go out after that. We considered ourselfs lucky to match with Czechia last Euros and they knocked us out

 

[Oranges038]

Nothing new. We tend to notice it with clubs too. It is an easy draw. The biggest names on your side of the draw are Italy and Netherlands both of whom it seems nobody at all rates.

Which means that England will more than likely lose on penalties to one of them.

 

[bosnian_red]

Nowhere near Germany and Spain but that's about it. None of Italy, Netherlands, France, England, Portugal have looked convincing (or have had a game as convincing as ours against Romania).

Maybe I'm underrating you guys. On paper it's really nothing impressive IMO, especially at the back (and it's not like you did that great in the group stage, all 4 teams on 4 points). Only watched your first game though.

 

[Alex99]

Nah I think that is contrived.

In 2018 England were lucky to avoid the path that Belgium ended up with, because that was the two options on the table depending on who won the group. Belgium faced Mexico, Brazil and France. England faced Colombia, Sweden and Croatia. There was no sensible mention of Netherlands, Italy or Germany. Those countries were irrelevant - it was simply about the two paths that were on the table. One a lot more challenging than the other.

In 2020 I don't think Germany were re-evaluated after the England game based on a bias against England. They were already regarded as a fallen giant at a low ebb after the disaster in 2018. For example, in the Guardian's Euro 2020 preview, their fan's view was " I do not expect much from the Euros. I would be surprised if we make it out of the group."

Perhaps that view consolidated after the England game because they offered little in that game and England ended up looking a bit better all over. I'm not sure if that's a view borne out of a jealousy of England or just because Germany were a bit average at the time.

Plenty of people were specifically mentioning Germany, Italy and Netherlands in 2018. England, objectively, were on the more favourable side of the draw (especially when Spain lost to Russia), but it was absolutely something that was brought up, many, many times. I'm not judging whether that view was sensible or not.

The fact is that England did have to beat Germany in Euro 2020, but suddenly Germany were seen for what they were (not great) by the very same people bigging them up as a huge threat in 2018.

The same is happening now with Netherlands and Italy.

This isn't a defense of England either. They should have beaten Croatia, they should have beaten Italy, and they absolutely should be making the final based on this draw. The point is that the quality of the "big" nations is only actually taken into account when England are in the same part of the draw as them.

 

[The Firestarter]

In the Netherlands we are very happy to be at the easy side of the draw.

Already seen a few opinions that we will reach the final because we wont lose to Austria twice and England has been absolute shit (relative to the quality of the players atleast)

Personally i think we beat Romania and go out after that. We considered ourselfs lucky to match with Czechia last Euros and they knocked us out

Light-hearted Ralfter

 

[stefan92]

The fact is that England did have to beat Germany in Euro 2020, but suddenly Germany were seen for what they were (not great) by the very same people bigging them up as a huge threat in 2018.

Teams are always rated based on the previous tournament(s)

Germany had won the World Cup in 2014 and the Confed Cup 2017 - the latter with a complete B-Team. It was expected that merging the best of that team with the still existing core from 2014 should be a very strong team 2018. Instead it totally went wrong, but that wasn't expected. After the failure of 2018 there were few signs of improvement, so of course in 2020 they were seen as a weaker team.

 

[KirkDuyt]

Nowhere near Germany and Spain but that's about it. None of Italy, Netherlands, France, England, Portugal have looked convincing (or have had a game as convincing as ours against Romania).

Portugal was pretty good against Turkey werent they?

 

[Pintu]

Nah I think that is contrived.

In 2018 England were lucky to avoid the path that Belgium ended up with, because that was the two options on the table depending on who won the group. Belgium faced Mexico, Brazil and France. England faced Colombia, Sweden and Croatia. There was no sensible mention of Netherlands, Italy or Germany. Those countries were irrelevant - it was simply about the two paths that were on the table. One a lot more challenging than the other.

In 2020 I don't think Germany were re-evaluated after the England game based on a bias against England. They were already regarded as a fallen giant at a low ebb after the disaster in 2018. For example, in the Guardian's Euro 2020 preview, their fan's view was " I do not expect much from the Euros. I would be surprised if we make it out of the group."

Perhaps that view consolidated after the England game because they offered little in that game and England ended up looking a bit better all over. I'm not sure if that's a view borne out of a jealousy of England or just because Germany were a bit average at the time.

Italy and the Netherlands failed to qualify for that World Cup… Germany lost to Korea and Meixco and went out in the GS… Sweden who had miraculously eliminated the Netherlands of the qualifiers and Italy in the playoffs somehow topped that World Cup group despite losing to Germany…

 

[Alex99]

Teams are always rated based on the previous tournament(s)

Germany had won the World Cup in 2014 and the Confed Cup 2017 - the latter with a complete B-Team. It was expected that merging the best of that team with the still existing core from 2014 should be a very strong team 2018. Instead it totally went wrong, but that wasn't expected. After the failure of 2018 there were few signs of improvement, so of course in 2020 they were seen as a weaker team.

They should have been seen as a weaker team when they finished bottom their group. This also doesn't explain why Italy and Netherlands were considered opponents England were fortunate to have avoided when neither had managed to even qualify for the tournament. Funnily enough, Sweden, who England did beat in 2018, finished ahead of Netherlands in the qualifiers to eliminate Netherlands, beat Italy in the play-offs to eliminate them, and topped Germany's group (also ahead of Mexico and South Korea).

This isn't an argument against the idea that England have benefitted from "easier" draws. They have. It's just pointing out the narrative surrounding England's draws tends to reach exaggerated levels of dismissal of any of their (potential) opponents.