Dutch general elections on Wednesday!

Cheimoon said:
:D

Always on the left. I have been switching between GroenLinks, PvdA, and SP over the years, usually for strategic reasons, and doing the same this year made me end up with PvdA/GroenLinks, for the reason you stated. But with the other big parties being NSC, VVD, and PVV, a right-ist coalition looks more likely either way. From my perspective, I would just have to hope PvdA/GroenLinks becomes the biggest party and will have the first shot at creating a coalition, cause otherwise I can see them being left out.

It's funny actually: the Netherlands are internationally seen as a progressive country, but there has never been a progressive majority politically, and the left hasn't really been a major player ever since the purple coalitions of the 90s. But then I would anyway also have lots of comments to make on that progressive image, so that kinda fits.

Anyway, I'm curious what will happen post-elections. It was very hard to form a coalition last time round because of the splintering of parliament into dozens of parties, and even though there will most likely be more big parties this time round, they might still find it hard to create a coalition together. Dutch politics went through a series of mergers a long time ago, when the CDA and GroenLinks etc. were formed, and it looks like it's time for that again: BBB, NSC, and CDA might as well be together, same for PVV and FvD, a bunch of tiny parties could be merged into bigger ones, and of course GroenLinks and PvdA are doing it already. I know they all have their differences, and ChristenUnie has been doing alright lately as the final piece of coalition puzzles, but in terms of wielding political power, it really is helpful to be a bigger block together.

Let's tag a bunch of other people in the Netherlands as well: @BrilliantOrange, @Stadjer, @Rams, @Stanley Road, @Terranova, @Samoerai Jack, @Rapsel, @Eendracht maakt macht, @ArjenIsM3, @DutchSerb; maybe also @King Kendrick and @BenitoSTARR as avid Eredivisie followers.
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I voted on PvdA/GL as a 'strategic vote'. I would have prefered to vote for a more middle party with an pro European stance like Volt or even D66 but imagine if Wilders became our prime minister. I think it would be a disaster if someone who is convicted for inciting discrimination becomes our prime minister. That is almost as bad as having BoJo as your prime minister :lol:

Outside of the hatred for foreigners, and most of all Muslims, Wilders his Party is actually quite 'left'. They used to be seen as the party for the lower educated and struggling citizen and that shows in their program.

What you are saying about BBB, NSC and CDA is correct. Their leaders all used to be CDA people. They arent that different but one party (BBB) has the focus on farmers (in reality the focus is on the major farm companies) while the other (NSC) has the focus on a 'better government'. FvD is basically the crazy 'wappie' party for conspiracy theorists and people who just hate everything government related and also foreigners. Pretty sure that Wilders (PVV) thinks that Baudet (FvD) is a crazy person too. Although personally i dont think Baudet or his FvD people are crazy at all. I think it is all part of their plan to become rich off stupid people. I also think its working. They are never going to receive the wages they do as a member of parlement anywhere else, are raking in donation and membership money and sells books and foodboxes while actually never going to debates or doing their work as a representative for their voters.

It will be difficult to form a government after the election im afraid. It will take ages and with many different opinion in it, they likely wont really get anything done.
 
RobinLFC said:
Not sure how a possible coalition would work or even look like but surely Yesilgöz would be better than Wilders or having to govern with Baudet (God forbid)?
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Baudet is never going to receive enough votes to be relevant. He had his moment and chance to become a serious party but ruined that with a very strange speech. A lot of people left the party and the party rebranded to a conspiracy theorist crazy people party. The only thing the FvD is now doing is catering to the crazy people so Baudet and maybe a few others can receive a massive wage (124k a year) without actually doing anything for it since they dont actually go to debates. Baudet and friends will receive their money and can focus on writing books, selling food boxes and making tiktok type videos against the World Economic Forum.
 
Cheimoon said:
The SP is interesting. The politically big left has (in many countries) not actually been very leftist economically for a long time now, and most 'leftist talk' has rather been about progressive issues (diversity and inclusion) - except of course for the SP, which has never wavered from its socialist course. But in turn, they are actually a little conservative elsewhere (although usually motivated through socialist ideas with a somewhat nationalist focus). In that sense, they're effectively sometimes not that far off from Wilders, who aside from his Islamophobia has a fairly left-wing agenda in some other aspects (and of course the nationalist focus). That makes these parties a difficult fit for the usual news reporting, but I get why people might be interested in both. (I know you said JA21, but I don't think they have that leftist bend, so I'm just kinda taking that as a jumping point. :D )

Of course, my personal hobby horse is that I don't get why the left hasn't been talking more about economic equity, cause that's what bothers people - and by leaving that unaddressed, they've allowed the right to attract that segment of the population through populist rhetorics. Such a mess. At least it has been firmly back on the agenda in these elections!
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Yeah agreed. That's why I voted SP last time. Thought Marijnissen was also pretty strong in the debates (again). Think the party suffers from strategic votes going towards GLPVDA.

And you're right about PVV. They were actually a really good fit according to Stemwijzer as well. I just don't like Wilders' Islamophobic views which is why I don't vote for them.

JA21 seem like a sensible alternative on the right side of the political spectrum though they haven't really gotten any traction this time around with some import members switching to other parties as well.

KirkDuyt said:
SP is more radical left than PVDA - GL though. It's why I usually vote for them. There's really nothing radical about the PVDA, though I realize the term radical has kinda lost its meaning since people used it to describe Robespierre and his cult of the supreme being.
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But not when it comes to immigration and climate. As Cheimoon says above SP has more of a nationalist focus which I like. I didn't really mind the PVDA before, my dad used to vote for them, but since the merger with GL it's all gone downhill. Especially with Timmermans at the helm. Really don't like that guy.
 
How come the election is on a Wednesday? Is it some national holiday?
 
i reckon this is the worst time in human history to be gifted with a working brain.
 
DavidDeSchmikes said:
will he struggle to build a coalition? Don't think any parties have said they'll work with him
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They will have to. VVD hasnt said no to it but said they didnt want Wilders as prime minister. Omtzigt and his NSC were vague about building a coalition with Wilders but never really excluded. They did say he has to respect the freedom of religion and Wilders himself has said that his stance on the Islam isnt the most important thing for him at this time.

Currently PVV (35) + VVD (23) + NSC (20) = 78 would be enough and it looks like the least impossible formation.
 
Stadjer said:
They will have to. VVD hasnt said no to it but said they didnt want Wilders as prime minister. Omtzigt and his NSC were vague about building a coalition with Wilders but never really excluded. They did say he has to respect the freedom of religion and Wilders himself has said that his stance on the Islam isnt the most important thing for him at this time.

Currently PVV (35) + VVD (23) + NSC (20) = 78 would be enough and it looks like the least impossible formation.
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Only have 14 seats in the senate though.
 
rimaldo said:
i reckon this is the worst time in human history to be gifted with a working brain.
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We're still dealing with the effects of leaded gasoline and lead-based paint damaging the brains of all the old people. :mad:
 
Depressing times. I can see Portugal in next year's march elections also turn right. Far right will definitely have a vote percentage increase, just hope center right keeps the promise of not accepting them in any governamental coalition. I wouldn't be surprised if they broke the promise due to the lust for power though.
 
Wilders all of a sudden acting like a reasonable person. cnut.
 
VorZakone said:
Dunno mate, the Khmer Rouge killed a lot of intellectuals in the Cambodian genocide.
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i said it was the worst time to have a working brain, not the worst time to be a nerd.
 
Stadjer said:
They will have to. VVD hasnt said no to it but said they didnt want Wilders as prime minister. Omtzigt and his NSC were vague about building a coalition with Wilders but never really excluded. They did say he has to respect the freedom of religion and Wilders himself has said that his stance on the Islam isnt the most important thing for him at this time.

Currently PVV (35) + VVD (23) + NSC (20) = 78 would be enough and it looks like the least impossible formation.
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The way I see it, based on the exit poll, NSC and VVD are the kingmakers here - but won't provide the PM themselves. Given how basically everyone else seems to become tiny, probably the only viable coalitions are them two + PVV or them two + PvdA/GL + D66. So it depends on how serious Yeşilgöz and Omtzigt were about not wanting to work with the PVV and with PvdA/GL. I think they deeply dislike the idea of both PM Wilders and PM Timmermans, and I think both Wilders and Timmermans are seasoned politicians that are happy to compromise profoundly to be able to get into power. Ideologically, a coalition with PVV might make more sense, but I think Omtzigt would be more uncomfortable with that, and VVD and NSC might have to compromise more in that case since PVV is becoming so big. That's their advantage with Timmermans, who they could make bend their way a lot more. But then Wilders after all his years alone would probably be delighted to join any coalition that finally makes any of his ideas happen (with him as PM, even!).

So I can see lots of twists and turns to this, but ultimately, I think a PVV-VVD-NSC government under Wilders (with Omtzigt remaining in parliament, and Yeşilgöz vice-PM and Minister of Justice) is most likely.
Eendracht maakt macht said:
Only have 14 seats in the senate though.
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Yeah, that's a big complication, but it's unavoidable: a PvdA/GL-VVD-NSC-D66 coalition would also have just 29 seats. It's better minority, but still 13 seats short of a majority. Either coalition would rely heavily on BBB playing ball (16 seats) - which might be a reason to add their 7 projected seats in parliament to the coalition.
 
Eendracht maakt macht said:
Wilders all of a sudden acting like a reasonable person. cnut.
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Wilders is probably the best politician around. From a purely professional standpoint, I mean: him and Timmermans know the game better than anyone of the other leaders, and Wilders will be itching to finally get to power after all those years of having a fairly large party without basically any influence. (Apart from pulling the VVD to the right because of the competition for votes.)
 
This doesn’t bode well for our federal and regional elections next year, fecking hell.

Extreme-right will win it with a landslide.
 
Cheimoon said:
The way I see it, based on the exit poll, NSC and VVD are the kingmakers here - but won't provide the PM themselves. Given how basically everyone else seems to become tiny, probably the only viable coalitions are them two + PVV or them two + PvdA/GL + D66. So it depends on how serious Yeşilgöz and Omtzigt were about not wanting to work with the PVV and with PvdA/GL. I think they deeply dislike the idea of both PM Wilders and PM Timmermans, and I think both Wilders and Timmermans are seasoned politicians that are happy to compromise profoundly to be able to get into power. Ideologically, a coalition with PVV might make more sense, but I think Omtzigt would be more uncomfortable with that, and VVD and NSC might have to compromise more in that case since PVV is becoming so big. That's their advantage with Timmermans, who they could make bend their way a lot more. But then Wilders after all his years alone would probably be delighted to join any coalition that finally makes any of his ideas happen (with him as PM, even!).

So I can see lots of twists and turns to this, but ultimately, I think a PVV-VVD-NSC government under Wilders (with Omtzigt remaining in parliament, and Yeşilgöz vice-PM and Minister of Justice) is most likely.

Yeah, that's a big complication, but it's unavoidable: a PvdA/GL-VVD-NSC-D66 coalition would also have just 29 seats. It's better minority, but still 13 seats short of a majority. Either coalition would rely heavily on BBB playing ball (16 seats) - which might be a reason to add their 7 projected seats in parliament to the coalition.
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Not a great look for our country. Having a prime minister who was convincted for inciting discrimination. Imagine a Wilders and Erdogan meeting :nervous:
 
Stadjer said:
Not a great look for our country. Having a prime minister who was convincted for inciting discrimination. Imagine a Wilders and Erdogan meeting :nervous:
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Well, they just wouldn't. :nervous:

But that's an interesting point actually. As much as I dislike Rutte, he's apparently a formidable diplomat who had a lot of international influence (relatively to the size of the Netherlands, anyway) through his wide network and many years at the top. That's obviously gone now (although Timmermans probably has some of that), but Wilders would be the polar opposite of that, and a big dent in Dutch international relations with all the countries and ethnicities he's insulted over the years. It's a strong argument for any potential coalition partner against him becoming PM - but would Wilders accept that and agree to choosing someone else? And who would that even be? Cause the PVV is still really just the Geert Wilders party. (Who can even name any other PVV person outside Dion Graus?) Maybe that's another point for a PvdA/GL-VVD-NSC-D66 (-BBB?) coalition.
 
Stadjer said:
Not a great look for our country. Having a prime minister who was convincted for inciting discrimination. Imagine a Wilders and Erdogan meeting :nervous:
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Live from Saudi Arabia, exclusive to DAZN.

It's inevitable now.
 
KirkDuyt said:
Yeah, I doubt he will be able to.
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Nah. Yeşilgöz said that the VVD would not join a coalition under a PM WIlders, but will now simply say that the PVV has grown too big to ignore ('that would be undemocratic!') and refer back to her statements from the beginning of the campaign (when she did accept the idea of a coalition with the PVV) - or otherwise the VVD can replace her with someone else who hasn't made such statements. And Omtzigt's problem was that Wilders would want to take illegal and unconstitutional measures, but Wilders has already stated this evening that he won't. I can think of various ifs and buts here, the biggest being that a PM Wilders would be problematic in part of the world given everything he has said in the past; but I still think a PPV-led coalition is the most likely way forward.
 
Hoo boy, that's a spicy exit poll.

The PVV is a crazy party of one: Wilders is the only member. They own islamophobia as their main issue and otherwise identify as socially conservative and somewhat economically progressive. Their turn towards socialism this election might arguably have made the difference, as well as the exit of almost all seasoned politicians. Throughout the years Rutte especially put a lot of energy in keeping Wilders down and that clearly wasn't without reason.

Outside of the PVV however, the moderates still hold a majority. Omtzigt is unlikely to give Geert much room to maneuver. Maybe some sort of minority government with VVD and BBB? But would anyone dare let Wilders become PM? Spicy indeed!
 
Well I never thought I’d be living in a racist country, but here is where we’re at. All Jantje foreigners are no longer welcome here.
 
And what is it with these far right populist politicians and dodgy hair styles???? Hitler, Trump, Boris and now Wilders ffs.
 
What are the chances that loon Baudet will be part of the newly formed coalition? Can't stand that nutter. He's ten times worse than Wilders. At least the latter is a seasoned politician with experience and he's willing to compromise.

I actually wanted Timmermans to be the new Dutch prime minister, but here we are.

I predict a PVV-VVD-NSC coalition. The problem is the senate. The farmer party and left wing GL-PVDA are ruling the senate.
 
Unam333 said:
What are the chances that loon Baudet will be part of the newly formed coalition? Can't stand that nutter. He's ten times worse than Wilders. At least the latter is a seasoned politician with experience and he's willing to compromise.

I actually wanted Timmermans to be the new Dutch prime minister, but here we are.

I predict a PVV-VVD-NSC coalition. The problem is the senate. The farmer party and left wing GL-PVDA are ruling the senate.
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There is 0% chance Baudet wil be anywhere near a government, ever. He is not a serious party anymore. Just a fringe conspiracy loon party.
 
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