Its feeling less and less to me like Trump has much chance. The guy needs to gain on his 2020 result. Roe vs Wade is probably enough by itself to ensure that can't happen. Then on top you have the insurrection, 4 indictments, 34 felonies, E Jean Carrroll rape, being on wrong side of the Ukraine war, 4 year demographic shift, his own cognitive/bodily function decline, increasingly open fascist rhetoric and no doubt other factors I'm not remembering right now.
Republicans seem to have consistently under-performed in local elections the last few years, most recently an Ohio district yesterday in a very safe red house seat. 2020 lead of 28 points shrunk to 8 against a Dem who only spent around $25k vs $700k of the republican. The general polls also appear to be moving away from Trump recently, if you give much credence to those.
Of course the GOP has far better media control and that's expanded since the twitter takeover, that's what wins elections. The main worry for me though is what shady shit they are going to get up to this time around. This is pretty much life and death for Trump, there will be no holding back.