Think Dumoulin will edge it but it could be very, very close. Like you said, @RobinLFC, we don't usually see the same time gaps on ITT's at the end of a three-week race.
Cycling 2017
- Thread starter Barbara Charles
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Looking at those earlier TT results Dumoulin might just edge it out again! That would be phenomenal.
This makes me doubt my decision for Quintana again in favour of a Dumoulin victory...
Top five starts between 16u45 and 17u00 GMT+1.
Dumoulin not taking the overall victory from this position would have to be considered an upset. I think he'll win it by some margin in the end. I wouldn't be surprised if Quintana doesn't make the podium either.
Dumoulin is 1/4 favourite here and Quintana is out at 7/1 which backs that up.
Dumoulin at first checkpoint, 2" behind Van Emden. If he continues like this, Quintana needs to ride the TT of his life to save his ass.
This looks over already.
Yep, Quintana already loses 55" although he's doing quite a good job so far by his standards.
Quintana was never going to do enough in this ITT
Dumoulin - nice work from the big Dutch man.
Brilliant 3 weeks of racing. Love the Giro.
Brilliant 3 weeks of racing. Love the Giro.
YESSSS GET IN THERE TOM!
As expected, a deserved victory all things considered. No one really stood out in the mountains, I expected Dumoulin to lose a lot more time there. He was the most complete rider.
Can't believe how little Quintana and Nibali took from Dumoulin in the mountains. I thought they would take 5 mins plus. Great ride from Dumoulin.
I hope we get a good young climber soon. Quintana was that guy, but he (IMO) doesn't have the killer instinct Contador had. He's not going to win more against Froome and Dumoulin.
I hope we get a good young climber soon. Quintana was that guy, but he (IMO) doesn't have the killer instinct Contador had. He's not going to win more against Froome and Dumoulin.
I love the Tour de France but I think I prefer the Giro. And I'm glad for Dumoulin.
I think I agree. I like the Tour, but the Giro feels a bit more open nowadays.
Open because of its lack of quality climbers imo. Don't get me wrong it was very exciting and Dumoulin is the deserved winner in the end of course, but I can't help but feel a true quality climber, say à la Quintana from two years ago, would've taken a lot more time from Dumoulin in the mountains. He was nowhere near as good as he was the last few years this Giro, and will probably be even worse in the Tour if recent history is anything to go by. Nibali is past his peak as well right now, I feel he got lucky last Giro and will only get worse from now on.
I love the Tour and the whole circus that comes with it, nothing beats those lazy Summer afternoons at the pool with one eye on the ongoing stage, but I definitely agree with you that the Giro is better in terms of tension and excitement - there won't be anyone good enough to compete with Froome imo.
It's definitely due to a lack of quality depth, I was looking at who will be at the Tour and wasn't at the Giro, BMC and Sky are impressive while all the other teams improve too. It's harder to play games at the Tour because Sky are stacked but the other teams can make them severely pay if they make a mistake.
Edit: And Italy is a beautiful country.
Yeah you're right, although I fear Porte will have at least one off-day and feck up his whole Tour. I've got high hopes for Bardet though and I'd much rather him than Froome, we're really due a new French winner!
Well I'm not sure about that. Nibali, Quintana, Pinot, Zakarin, Landa, Adam Yates, those are all fine climbers. Maybe none were at their absolute best but with 70 individual TT kilometers in there, many of which were flat, almost anyone would've had a tough time beating Dumoulin here. Froome is an exceptional allrounder so he would've thrived here. Contador is still a wonderful, attacking climber but past his best and is he really a better time trialist than Nibali? I don't think so. Porte has the TT ability but over 3 weeks his climbing abilities are questionable. Aru or Bardet? Still got a lot to prove in my opinion.
I'd say this was a very strong grand tour line-up. Froome is the only one who would've significantly improved it, although I still hold out hope that Contador will rediscover his best form during the Tour. It's unlikely though.
They're indeed all 'fine' climbers, but nothing special. I definitely agree that it was a strong playing field given the current situation, but I was more comparing the present with the situation ten years ago. Maybe I'm being nostalgic about the past but I compare Dumoulin with someone like Levi Leipheimer, TT specialist who can hold his own in the mountains but nothing more than a top ten candidate, maybe top five or even top three in a very good year. Back in the day you had the likes of Menchov, Mancebo, Vinokourov, Zubeldia, the Schlecks, Klöden, Sastre, ... And that's even omitting Basso, Ullrich and Armstrong due to obvious reasons (although everyone was doped back then of course). It's hard to compare different eras but it just feels to me that those guys would shit over today's competitors, especially in the mountains.
39 year old Franco Pelizotti was one of the best riders in the last two mountain stages this week, I like the guy but he has no business being there anymore. Maybe it's just a disappointment for me that the favourites did so little in the mountains when we've had a Spring full of adventurous breakaways and attacking riders such as Sagan, Van Avermaet and Gilbert. Those are experts in their field and pushed each other to their limits this year, whereas this Giro it felt more like who's the best of an average bunch. To me, at least
Maybe I'm a bit too harsh, I don't know - De Cauwer predicted Dumoulin as a future Tour-winner and he's not wrong often about those things.
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There may be a very good reason for that, one that should be celebrated instead of viewed as a negative... That may be naive or wishful thinking, but it's a possible explanation. One other explanation is the widespread use of or reliance on power meters nowadays. Traditional climbers like to attack in bursts to wear out there opponents. Someone like Dumoulin just rides at his own tempo, dictated by his power meter. He doesn't counter attacks, he just keeps his own rhythm and steadily gains on his attackers again. We've seen him react like this to attacks by Quintana and Nibali several times this Giro.They're indeed all 'fine' climbers, but nothing special. I definitely agree that it was a strong playing field given the current situation, but I was more comparing the present with the situation ten years ago. Maybe I'm being nostalgic about the past but I compare Dumoulin with someone like Levi Leipheimer, TT specialist who can hold his own in the mountains but nothing more than a top ten candidate, maybe top five or even top three in a very good year. Back in the day you had the likes of Menchov, Mancebo, Vinokourov, Zubeldia, the Schlecks, Klöden, Sastre, ... And that's even omitting Basso, Ullrich and Armstrong due to obvious reasons (although everyone was doped back then of course). It's hard to compare different eras but it just feels to me that those guys would shit over today's competitors, especially in the mountains.
39 year old Franco Pelizotti was one of the best riders in the last two mountain stages this week, I like the guy but he has no business being there anymore. Maybe it's just a disappointment for me that the favourites did so little in the mountains when we've had a Spring full of adventurous breakaways and attacking riders such as Sagan, Van Avermaet and Gilbert. Those are experts in their field and pushed each other to their limits this year, whereas this Giro it felt more like who's the best of an average bunch. To me, at least
I guess in a grand tour this tough, it's unrealistic to expect the GC riders to mount attacks at 60+km from the finish in tough mountain stages. Is that the price of clean racing? We saw those attacks in the past, and eventually none of them turned out to be clean.
Mont du Chat is looking like a proper beast climb Aru looking good, Porte and Froome okay-ish but the likes of Bardet, Contador and Valverde are clearly struggling.
Aru looking good, Porte and Froome okay-ish but the likes of Bardet, Contador and Valverde are clearly struggling.Feck Froome is destroying this descent.
He's gotten so much better in descents since two years ago, last year's descent of the Peyresourde was fecking incredible (and crazy), today as well against riders who are supposed to be better descenders in Aru, Fuglsang (ex-MTB'er) and Porte...
He fecks Porte in the sprint though, if he doesn't close the door Porte would win easily, but I'm happy for Fuglsang who doesn't win that many races anyway.
Tour prospect is looking grim at the moment - Porte always has at least one bad day, Aru doesn't have a good TT, Valverde, Bardet and Contador don't look good enough and Quintana has just done the Giro... Hopefully Chavez and Dumoulin(?) can be a threat for Froome, or one of the others has to improve a lot over the next three weeks or it doesn't bode well for the intensity and excitement of the Tour imo.
He fecks Porte in the sprint though, if he doesn't close the door Porte would win easily, but I'm happy for Fuglsang who doesn't win that many races anyway.
Tour prospect is looking grim at the moment - Porte always has at least one bad day, Aru doesn't have a good TT, Valverde, Bardet and Contador don't look good enough and Quintana has just done the Giro... Hopefully Chavez and Dumoulin(?) can be a threat for Froome, or one of the others has to improve a lot over the next three weeks or it doesn't bode well for the intensity and excitement of the Tour imo.
I enjoyed that.
Must say Porte hasn't put a foot wrong this year, starting from the TDU, but I feel he's peaked too early wheras someone like Froome is a tad undercooked, yet I have little doubt he'll be just right for the Tour in 3 weeks time. Also, like you say Porte always has his bad day during a grand tour race, and despite his form thus far, I don't see why this year should be any different.
As ever I think the quality of the Sky superbots will make it exceptionally difficult for anyone to challenge Froome, but I'm hoping for Bardet to do something special. I'd be delighted if Poels ends up on the podium, given that he was passed over for the Giro. I think the excitement this year might be in the order of the top 10 rather than the fight for the top step of the podium....
If Poels is doing the Tour (Which I assume he will) He'll do the same as last year. Destroy Froome's competition on the mountain stages and enjoying the sight of people's pain while he calmly climbs the mountain. He rides on the pain and agony in the riders behind him.I enjoyed that.
Must say Porte hasn't put a foot wrong this year, starting from the TDU, but I feel he's peaked too early wheras someone like Froome is a tad undercooked, yet I have little doubt he'll be just right for the Tour in 3 weeks time. Also, like you say Porte always has his bad day during a grand tour race, and despite his form thus far, I don't see why this year should be any different.
As ever I think the quality of the Sky superbots will make it exceptionally difficult for anyone to challenge Froome, but I'm hoping for Bardet to do something special. I'd be delighted if Poels ends up on the podium, given that he was passed over for the Giro. I think the excitement this year might be in the order of the top 10 rather than the fight for the top step of the podium....
I bet he'll go to the Tour, Sky's team looked very thin yesterday, only Kwiatkowski lasted a little bit longer but Froome was isolated for most of the climb (so were the others to be fair except for Aru). Landa and Poels would come in handy for Froome as I think he benefits more from having a strong team in front of him than others.
Queen stage today.
Froome isn't winning the tour. He's usually very good in the build up races. He's not ready. Porte or Quintana for me. However, I hope Contador pulls it off.
The top riders hold peak form for about, what, a month roughly? Froome's got 3 weeks to hit form. He's doing the numbers in training apparently but definitely undercooked at the moment. He may just time this to perfection but I don't know!
I think the opposite this time actually, I think he'll still improve towards the beginning of July and won't be gassed in the third week unlike someone like Porte who seems to be too good already right now.
Firmly in the Contador camp as well by the way, would be awesome if he wins it. I don't like Porte and Froome so I wouldn't mind Aru, Bardet or Valverde either. Don't think Quintana has a shot.
Quintana winning it after contesting the Giro would be really something. I don't see it happening. Froome will improve in time for the Tour, I wouldn't doubt it. He might even be better off having his peak a week or two later instead of dominating the first week and having to hang on in the final week. Porte looks magnificent right now but he still has a lot to prove in a Grand Tour. Aru looks very good as well, Contador and Bardet both decent if they can improve a little, which I'm sure they will. Valverde is difficult to judge as Quintana is supposed to be the main man for the Tour.
As it stands right now I'd say Porte, Froome and Aru are the main candidates with Contador, Bardet and Quintana behind them, perhaps Valverde as well. Yates, Chaves, Dan Martin etc. some way behind.
I'd like Valverde to lead Movistar in the tour, he's had an exceptional season and just a great all round rider/racer. It'll be Quintana though, who may podium but won't win.
I'm quite enjoying this Criterium. I like unexpected winners. Good weather, beautiful scenery, what more do you want.
Porte already proving how vulnerable he is. If he's attacked from early stages, he just can't cope and was isolated early as well.
Also Kwiatkowski, what the feck? He was behind Porte at the top of the Colombière and is now doing work in Froome's group Must've done an insane descent.
Also Kwiatkowski, what the feck? He was behind Porte at the top of the Colombière and is now doing work in Froome's group
Must've done an insane descent.Fuglsang the virtual leader 3 Km to go. Climbing beautifully.
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Porte proving me wrong atm, riding a very strong climb.
Yesss. Haha. Fuglsang tops the GC! Love to hate Porte
Love it
Fantastic stage. That was tough on Porte, completely isolated at a very early stage and put in a very difficult position by all his rivals. He responded magnificently but it was just too much to ask. What now for Fuglsang and Aru? Who'll be the main man in the Tour?