Club Sale | It’s done!

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Don't know much about any potential owners but what's to say we don't end up with another bunch of parasites?
 
We're talking about the same Dubai, right? There isn't a different Dubai where all the things you say happen?
He's obviously exaggerating (whether voluntarily or out of ignorance, I don't know - Dubai and Saudi Arabia aren't the same with regards to human rights, treatment of women, etc) but they definitely have their issues with regards to migrant workers notably (and some archaic views with regards to women's place in society, for Emiratis born there).

They would probably be the lesser of... many evils, but I'd still have a bit of a conscience issue having them as owners.
 
Their source of income in the past has mainly been Abu Dhabi's oil money, not their own. But they have been trying to stand on their own, by building up a major tourist and financial hub not only in the region, but in the world. Hard to tell how much money the DIC got, and their growth certainly been halted a bit by COVID (due to tourism industry and financial market the main affected by it) but on the surface it seems like a well-run state. Still used for whitewashing, but then again has London been for decades (more concerned about that city's future due to sanctions against Russia).
It isnt. It’s basically borrowing to fuel its insane spending.

We will end up sponsored by poop trucks of Dubai.

All issues which Qatar is being demonised for, Dubai ticks all the boxes
 
Don't know much about any potential owners but what's to say we don't end up with another bunch of parasites?
We obviously don't. I think a lot of us got excited with the news due to exasperation regarding the Glazers, but the reality is the grass isn't always greener on the other side, and we could end up with worse, of course.
 
I can imagine their local social media influencers getting excited by the rumour now:


#

The guy, not so much.
 
Looks like we’ll basically get Chelsea’s sloppy seconds

One real possibility is that we get a placeholder until we are sold to a long-term buyer in 10 years. A venture capitalist (VC) buyer.

That is not a bad option. They are basically buying the club to get more for it when they sell it. For them, they would see the price for buying out the Glazers, the costs for renovating the stadium and Carrington and additional transfer sums — as one ‘cost’.

I just cannot see a buyer like that be willing to buy a team like Manchester United only to be looking to sell a team that would be like West Ham United in 10 years. The upside is in be looking to sell a top 2-3 football club and brand in 2035.

This type of buyer would hence see this club as like a 10 bn investment. 7 bn to the Glazers, 1.5bn to make OT and Carrington state of the art and 1.5bn to put into the playing squad over 10 years.

If they do this — and what would they get for the club in like 2035? Things don’t get cheaper. It’s not a wild guess that they would get 15-20 bn for the club with just normal growth. Additional source of income could open up, we got one of the biggest brands in the world. It feels like a very low risk investment with upside. And you get the additional benefit of ‘being the owner of Manchester United’. Don’t underestimate the value of
I work with public M&A and have a few thoughts on what is going on here, that I think are indisputable:

*”As part of this process, the Board will consider all strategic alternatives, including new investment into the club, a sale, or other transactions involving the Company.

What does this means?
(a) Look, the board has a fiduciary duty to act in the way that is best for all shareholders. If there is a sale of the club, there will be litigation in the US. If they sold the shares of the club — and someone sues them saying ‘you lost us money by not selling off the assets instead’, the board will be deemed negligible if it can’t show that they acted “with the care that an ordinarily prudent person in a like position would exercise under similar circumstances”. That includes not just ruling out options without looking into them.

I.e. it is perfectly possible that they are looking to sell 100% of close to 100% of the shares.

This is what the entire first half of the PR is about:
“We will evaluate all options … Throughout this process we will remain fully focused on serving the best interests of our fans, shareholders, and various stakeholders.”

(b) We are dealing with the Glazers here, they won’t waste money if they don’t have to.

If the Glazers want to explore selling their shares and hence wants to sign top financial and legal advisors — who pays the retainer? The Glazsers can’t ask the financial advisor to send the bill to the Club.

With this mission for the financial advisor, they are acting on behalf of the club and Glazers won’t be picking up the bill.

*Could the new buyer be worse than the Glazers?

I don’t know the answer to that, of course. But it’s not 2005 anymore, where football clubs weren’t seen as investments and the sale of our club to the Glazers was perhaps not handled properly.

What I do know is this — the offers to buy the club will 100% be established against the background of what a buyer think can be justified against economical data or other concerns. Since there of course will be plenty of interested buyers, as a result, the highest bid will come from the buyer who sees the brightest future for Manchester United financially, which in its turn can motivate the highest price tag. At worst. There could of course always come in a buyer looking for an alibi, expensive toy or whatever.

The Glazers brought a club that — from a financial POV — was ‘decline proof’ for what a decade and a half. We are United, one of the the biggest club in the world. But this will not continue if the club remains outside all real competitions for titles for another 17 years or whatever. Slowly but surely our position in the football world is eroding. And it can get a lot worse fast. Under the Glazers, we haven’t contended for the title [since SAF left] really, but we been in and out of the Champions league, been the runner up for the title and so forth. There is no guarantee that we will become a CL team over the coming 10 years.

Hence, our club — for a new buyer — is anything but decline proof. This buyer could 100% buy one of the biggest clubs in the world and in 15 years time he looking to sell a mediocre PL team with a great history.

As a consequence, I personally think it’s very very likely that a new buyer will be looking to invest in the club. I just cannot imagine a scenario where a buyer — who will be the one entity that sees the brightest future for the team — will be someone who won’t look to invest in the club.

*What is the time frame?

The market is very very sour right now. There are no guarantees for any deal to get made fast.

For the Glazers to sell of their holdings of shares in United — it could be done fast. Could take a month. I've done a bigger transaction during one afternoon once, when the seller got word of that it was getting sanctioned the other day (but in that case a major owner bought out the other major owner).

But such scenario does not include a proper vendor auction process. It’s someone calling them up asking for a number, being given one, and then acting on it instantly.

A more likely scenario is Q1 2023. I think that is what they are aiming for. Q2 2023 could also be an option.

I just wanted to add one thing to the above, regarding this:
*The Raine Group is acting as the Company’s exclusive financial advisor

What can be read into the Raine Group acting as the financial advisor here? Had to make some calls and do some research to comment on this.

My first impression was that 'this will be a sale aimed at the US market' (while of course other buyers wouldn't be ruled out, but they would not be sought up). If it was a sale to including Asian/Arab/Gulf specific buyers to the same extent, I would have imagined that they would have engaged one of the bigger firms, i.e. one or more of JP, Goldman and co.

But that is probably not really the case here. Raine is a big player in sports related transactions. Did the Chelsea (advisor to Chelsea in the sale to Clearlake) and the transaction where the Abu Dabi people owning City sold 13 percent to Chinese investors. And at least a handful of other transactions in the US, including the MSG merger. They also do a lot of deals in the betting sector. A lot of transactions with Chinese investors.

Ultimately, I would like to say that we -- opposite to what I thought first -- chose the 'go to' advisor in this transaction. If anything, it is not an advisor with clear focus on the US market (although the process could focus on that market of course, we don't know).
 
The question I have is why now? Why are both Liverpool and Manchester United being put up for sale at the same time? Seems to me that there are a few things in play:
My gut feeling is that we have been put up for sale now because Liverpool have been put up for sale. If there are going to be Billionaires or rich consortiums sniffing around a club the Glazers would prefer it was us they buy rather than Liverpool.

If Dubai ended buying Liverpool, for example, then the pool of buyers who could afford United suddenly got a lot smaller. Better to sell now while there are still some big fish left out there.
 
I think the most important thing is whoever comes in has the good sense to employ the best people in key positions and has a plan for infrastructure. The Glazers would have avoided a huge percentage of the criticism they have had in recent times if they did this. We likely would have been more successful, then there isn't so much emphasis on a 20 million dividend.

It's hard to think you can both avoid morally dubious purchasers AND get someone uninterested in making a profit or some kind of business deal at our expense. That kind of utopia doesn't exist, we're a multi billion pound club, not Wrexham. We have to be realistic about these interested parties and hope for the best on that front.
 
I highly doubt someone would be willing to spend billions and just let United be, out of the goodness of their hearts. They will milk it, just like the Glazers did. Honestly, it could get better or worse if this happens, no way of knowing.

The only people who can just spend money purely for PR are nations like UAE and Qatar. They'd want success on the pitch more than return on their investment. Which at least bodes well for the club and it's fans. But of course, you never know when the West will sanction countries at will, leaving a lot of these 'oil clubs' reeling.
 
I highly doubt someone would be willing to spend billions and just let United be, out of the goodness of their hearts. They will milk it, just like the Glazers did. Honestly, it could get better or worse if this happens, no way of knowing.

The only people who can just spend money purely for PR are nations like UAE and Qatar. They'd want success on the pitch more than return on their investment. Which at least bodes well for the club and it's fans. But of course, you never know when the West will sanction countries at will, leaving a lot of these 'oil clubs' reeling.

I doubt the Glazers will want to sell at a market value. Anybody looking to make a profit will be priced out as long as there is an oil nation interested.
 
Who do you think is rich enough out there without having some corruption?
Dubai is one of the least corrupt and havent we had enough of 'rich' businessmen that see the club as a money making machine and be at least as bad as the parasites we have now.
Put it another way, do you want to fight Arsenal Spurs and Chelsea for 4th place every season, without moaning, whilst Newcastle City and Liverpool (will probably have owners like the other 2) fight for the title?

That's a false dichotomy. Even under the Glazers we have spent enough money to be competitive against state backed clubs. Maybe at a disadvantage over a long run, but still competitive. We just haven't spent that money well enough.

We don't need state backing. Some people just want state backing, preferring to frame it as a need because that's an easier argument for them to make.
 
Wait, aren't Dubai and Abu Dhabi both cities of the same country UAE? What's the difference in ownership?
Think of Abu Dhabi and Dubai as two out of seven monarchies/emirates that decided to work together and were federated in 1971 — whereas the likes of Bahrain and Qatar established separate nation states in close proximity. Much of the pertinent information can be deduced from a couple of maps...

YBLjRU1.jpg

  • Abu Dhabi is the largest in terms of land area, by far (at roughly 87% of the total).

T3gDTqA.jpg

  • Abu Dhabi also claims the lion's share of proven hydrocarbon reserves (roughly 90 billion barrels out of a total 98 billion barrels of oil, and much of the gas as well).
Dubai has certain things going for — it has the largest population of the seven emirates, is more cosmopolitan and globally oriented, and its economy is diverse (focused on services, commerce, real estate, tourism, and so forth instead of mining and quarrying); but Abu Dhabi is the real economic nucleus (accounting for ⅔rd of the collective GDP) as well as the administrative capital.
 
Wait, aren't Dubai and Abu Dhabi both cities of the same country UAE? What's the difference in ownership?
They are distinct emirates in a state that incorporates seven different emirates, governed by different families. The most powerful and wealthy emirate of the seven is Abu Dhabi by far.
They are separate and somewhat independent emirates in United Arab Emirates - which consists of seven emirates. Abu Dhabi is the main emirate due to having UAE's oil income. Abu Dhabi have funded the other emirates for decades (and even bailed out Dubai after the last financial crisis) but the last decade or so has seen Dubai becoming more independent due to being a major tourist and financial hub. Also Dubai is the most western-oriented emirate by far - Abu Dhabi is way more conservative.
UAE isn't a country its more like the UK with a few states making it up
Their source of income in the past has mainly been Abu Dhabi's oil money, not their own. But they have been trying to stand on their own, by building up a major tourist and financial hub not only in the region, but in the world. Hard to tell how much money the DIC got, and their growth certainly been halted a bit by COVID (due to tourism industry and financial market the main affected by it) but on the surface it seems like a well-run state. Still used for whitewashing, but then again has London been for decades (more concerned about that city's future due to sanctions against Russia).

The United Arab Emirates is an elective monarchy formed from a federation of seven emirates, consisting of Abu Dhabi (the capital), Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain. Each emirate is governed by an Emir.

map-of-administrative-division-of-united-arab-emirates-vector-id1270126717


The Emirate of Dubai is ruled by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Dubai is the capital of Emirate of Dubai and is bordered to the south by the emirate of Abu Dhabi, to the northeast by the emirate of Sharjah, to the southeast by the country of Oman, to the east by the emirate of Ajman, and to the north by the emirate of Ras Al Khaimah.

BvNFClyf1b7Xt1oht8pzxO9YfvodcV-BAgq9hxWHBbs.png


The UAE capital – and by far the wealthiest emirate – Abu Dhabi has also seen a population boom in the last 50 years. But there is a marked difference between the UAE’s two most successful emirates – Abu Dhabi still relies on oil for much of its wealth. Today less than 1% of Dubai’s GDP is from oil – at one time it was over half.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/11/dubai-uae-transformation/
 
I think it'll be Americans taking over as part of a consortium like our sale. Or an investor who will remain silent allowing Glazers to continue running the club, but gives them the extra cash boost they would like.

There's not a chance in hell a new buyer puts the Glazers in charge of his investment. It would be like Credit Suisse bringing Nick Leeson in to steady the ship.
 
Have you ever been to Dubai?

I think you might be painting an entire region with a pretty broad brush.
No,I can only go on what I have read in the broadsheets, on Wikipedia, on what I have culled from the web. I realise that this is not the be all and end all of knowledge. However, there have been constant articles of European women being raped in Dubai, and being imprisoned for having drunk alcohol, of questionable working practices (akin to Qatar). so forgive me if I have been led up the garden path by various news outlets
 
It isnt. It’s basically borrowing to fuel its insane spending.

We will end up sponsored by poop trucks of Dubai.

All issues which Qatar is being demonised for, Dubai ticks all the boxes

I'm not saying you are wrong, but where do you got this info from? They got hit by covid obviously but their GDP is expected to rise significantly and the whole UAE economy seems stable in an overall unstable financial situation.

As for the Qatar comparison - Dubai is gearing towards a way more liberal and modern political and religious direction, which, with additional international scrutiny, I kinda expect will improve many areas they have received criticism for.
 
One real possibility is that we get a placeholder until we are sold to a long-term buyer in 10 years. A venture capitalist (VC) buyer.

That is not a bad option. They are basically buying the club to get more for it when they sell it. For them, they would see the price for buying out the Glazers, the costs for renovating the stadium and Carrington and additional transfer sums — as one ‘cost’.

I just cannot see a buyer like that be willing to buy a team like Manchester United only to be looking to sell a team that would be like West Ham United in 10 years. The upside is in be looking to sell a top 2-3 football club and brand in 2035.

This type of buyer would hence see this club as like a 10 bn investment. 7 bn to the Glazers, 1.5bn to make OT and Carrington state of the art and 1.5bn to put into the playing squad over 10 years.

If they do this — and what would they get for the club in like 2035? Things don’t get cheaper. It’s not a wild guess that they would get 15-20 bn for the club with just normal growth
. Additional source of income could open up, we got one of the biggest brands in the world. It feels like a very low risk investment with upside. And you get the additional benefit of ‘being the owner of Manchester United’. Don’t underestimate the value of
That's 3.5% - 6.0% annualized return. This is not a good return for an illiquid investment. Which is exactly why there isn't much of a financial play here, and no one who cares about the returns is looking to buy the club for $7B and spend $3B on top of it.

As I said before, a "prestige"/sportswashing buyer is more likely. Anyone who cares about the financials will run it pretty much as the Glazers have from a capital structure perspective (debt, dividends, reinvestment).

Also, look up VC, you're using it incorrectly.
 
Funny how all rumoured numbers are rounded despite that we are talking about bloody billions. "They will sell for 5 billion."
"They plan to get 7 billion"
"Glazers want 8 billion."
 
I'm not saying you are wrong, but where do you got this info from? They got hit by covid obviously but their GDP is expected to rise significantly and the whole UAE economy seems stable in an overall unstable financial situation.

As for the Qatar comparison - Dubai is gearing towards a way more liberal and modern political and religious direction, which, with additional international scrutiny, I kinda expect will improve many areas they have received criticism for.

Its debt to gdp ratio is 80% and recovery is still not expected till 2023. It has already been bailed out once in 2009.

All i am saying is being owned by State is bad and Dubai might be the worst option as it doesn’t have the financial power that other state entities have. Then what is the upside of getting such owner?
 
No,I can only go on what I have read in the broadsheets, on Wikipedia, on what I have culled from the web. I realise that this is not the be all and end all of knowledge. However, there have been constant articles of European women being raped in Dubai, and being imprisoned for having drunk alcohol, of questionable working practices (akin to Qatar). so forgive me if I have been led up the garden path by various news outlets
Can you post a few of these? Genuinely curious.
 
I can imagine their local social media influencers getting excited by the rumour now:


#

The guy, not so much.


Who is this guy? Anime fan? Club will have Dragon Ball statues outside like Fulham did with MJ. feck’s sake
 
Funny how all rumoured numbers are rounded despite that we are talking about bloody billions. "They will sell for 5 billion."
"They plan to get 7 billion"
"Glazers want 8 billion."
I mean journalists are hardly going to say the Glazers are looking for $5,972,441,038.68. They round it to make is easier to parse.
 
No,I can only go on what I have read in the broadsheets, on Wikipedia, on what I have culled from the web. I realise that this is not the be all and end all of knowledge. However, there have been constant articles of European women being raped in Dubai, and being imprisoned for having drunk alcohol, of questionable working practices (akin to Qatar). so forgive me if I have been led up the garden path by various news outlets

I think there are a lot of half-truths there. In my experience Dubai and Singapore are the two safest places I have ever been. There is a huge drinking culture there but like anywhere you try to avoid walking down the streets with an open bottle of vodka in your hand, I would bet significant money that the level of rape in Dubai is far lower than London or Vegas.
 


According to sky it will probably be an American consortium
 
My gut feeling is that we have been put up for sale now because Liverpool have been put up for sale. If there are going to be Billionaires or rich consortiums sniffing around a club the Glazers would prefer it was us they buy rather than Liverpool.

If Dubai ended buying Liverpool, for example, then the pool of buyers who could afford United suddenly got a lot smaller. Better to sell now while there are still some big fish left out there.

100%.

The Glazers have, reportedly, been on the fence for awhile. However, the fact Chelsea and Necastle have been bought and Liverpool's on the market is reducing the number of potential buyers. This lessens the chance of an auction that will drive up the price to the level the Glazers want. For example, you have to think if the Saudis were still looking to buy a team the auction for United could be driven higher. The more people divert their money elsewhere the less interest there will be in United and the lower the price they can get. Had the Glazers waited for Liverpool to suck up all the attention they might be left dangling. Clearly they didn't want that.
 
I will be uneasy if we are bought by any Middle Eastern buyer. Their record of human rights, treatment of women (women who have reported rape have been jailed for being drunk), workers rights etc etc in Dubai are almost on a par with Qatar or Saudi Arabia. As odious as the Glazers were, Dubai or Saudi will be worse
Have you actually studied about Dubai or just lazily grouped the whole region together with a stereotype mindset?
 
Yeah, Dubai is loving international attention and wants to be the biggest and most important city in the world (see financial centre, DXB, Burj Khalifa etc - they even made Dubai Eye slightly taller than London Eye just because:D ) can be tempted into buying perhaps the most globally well-known sporting institution. I knew the former crown prince was a United fan (the one who died a few years ago) but according to the cliff on here the current crown prince, Hamdan is also a United fan so you never know.
From what I've heard they both used to support United together and their favourite player was Ronaldo, Prince Hamdan is also now good friends with Ronaldo.
 
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense for an oil rich country to buy us. The only bright side in all that is that they'll probably sack everyone and appoint the best in business at key positions and let them run things.

Yeah long as that doesn't involve Erik booted
 
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