Lecland07
Full Member
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- Oct 23, 2021
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Manchester Petroleum FC
The India option is scary, this board will be full of Sachin Tendulkar fans polluting all forums!
*that's racist.
He's obviously exaggerating (whether voluntarily or out of ignorance, I don't know - Dubai and Saudi Arabia aren't the same with regards to human rights, treatment of women, etc) but they definitely have their issues with regards to migrant workers notably (and some archaic views with regards to women's place in society, for Emiratis born there).We're talking about the same Dubai, right? There isn't a different Dubai where all the things you say happen?
It isnt. It’s basically borrowing to fuel its insane spending.Their source of income in the past has mainly been Abu Dhabi's oil money, not their own. But they have been trying to stand on their own, by building up a major tourist and financial hub not only in the region, but in the world. Hard to tell how much money the DIC got, and their growth certainly been halted a bit by COVID (due to tourism industry and financial market the main affected by it) but on the surface it seems like a well-run state. Still used for whitewashing, but then again has London been for decades (more concerned about that city's future due to sanctions against Russia).
Don't know much about any potential owners but what's to say we don't end up with another bunch of parasites?
We obviously don't. I think a lot of us got excited with the news due to exasperation regarding the Glazers, but the reality is the grass isn't always greener on the other side, and we could end up with worse, of course.Don't know much about any potential owners but what's to say we don't end up with another bunch of parasites?
Looks like we’ll basically get Chelsea’s sloppy seconds
I work with public M&A and have a few thoughts on what is going on here, that I think are indisputable:
*”As part of this process, the Board will consider all strategic alternatives, including new investment into the club, a sale, or other transactions involving the Company.”
What does this means?
(a) Look, the board has a fiduciary duty to act in the way that is best for all shareholders. If there is a sale of the club, there will be litigation in the US. If they sold the shares of the club — and someone sues them saying ‘you lost us money by not selling off the assets instead’, the board will be deemed negligible if it can’t show that they acted “with the care that an ordinarily prudent person in a like position would exercise under similar circumstances”. That includes not just ruling out options without looking into them.
I.e. it is perfectly possible that they are looking to sell 100% of close to 100% of the shares.
This is what the entire first half of the PR is about:
“We will evaluate all options … Throughout this process we will remain fully focused on serving the best interests of our fans, shareholders, and various stakeholders.”
(b) We are dealing with the Glazers here, they won’t waste money if they don’t have to.
If the Glazers want to explore selling their shares and hence wants to sign top financial and legal advisors — who pays the retainer? The Glazsers can’t ask the financial advisor to send the bill to the Club.
With this mission for the financial advisor, they are acting on behalf of the club and Glazers won’t be picking up the bill.
*Could the new buyer be worse than the Glazers?
I don’t know the answer to that, of course. But it’s not 2005 anymore, where football clubs weren’t seen as investments and the sale of our club to the Glazers was perhaps not handled properly.
What I do know is this — the offers to buy the club will 100% be established against the background of what a buyer think can be justified against economical data or other concerns. Since there of course will be plenty of interested buyers, as a result, the highest bid will come from the buyer who sees the brightest future for Manchester United financially, which in its turn can motivate the highest price tag. At worst. There could of course always come in a buyer looking for an alibi, expensive toy or whatever.
The Glazers brought a club that — from a financial POV — was ‘decline proof’ for what a decade and a half. We are United, one of the the biggest club in the world. But this will not continue if the club remains outside all real competitions for titles for another 17 years or whatever. Slowly but surely our position in the football world is eroding. And it can get a lot worse fast. Under the Glazers, we haven’t contended for the title [since SAF left] really, but we been in and out of the Champions league, been the runner up for the title and so forth. There is no guarantee that we will become a CL team over the coming 10 years.
Hence, our club — for a new buyer — is anything but decline proof. This buyer could 100% buy one of the biggest clubs in the world and in 15 years time he looking to sell a mediocre PL team with a great history.
As a consequence, I personally think it’s very very likely that a new buyer will be looking to invest in the club. I just cannot imagine a scenario where a buyer — who will be the one entity that sees the brightest future for the team — will be someone who won’t look to invest in the club.
*What is the time frame?
The market is very very sour right now. There are no guarantees for any deal to get made fast.
For the Glazers to sell of their holdings of shares in United — it could be done fast. Could take a month. I've done a bigger transaction during one afternoon once, when the seller got word of that it was getting sanctioned the other day (but in that case a major owner bought out the other major owner).
But such scenario does not include a proper vendor auction process. It’s someone calling them up asking for a number, being given one, and then acting on it instantly.
A more likely scenario is Q1 2023. I think that is what they are aiming for. Q2 2023 could also be an option.
My gut feeling is that we have been put up for sale now because Liverpool have been put up for sale. If there are going to be Billionaires or rich consortiums sniffing around a club the Glazers would prefer it was us they buy rather than Liverpool.The question I have is why now? Why are both Liverpool and Manchester United being put up for sale at the same time? Seems to me that there are a few things in play:
I hope Dubai do buy us..
I highly doubt someone would be willing to spend billions and just let United be, out of the goodness of their hearts. They will milk it, just like the Glazers did. Honestly, it could get better or worse if this happens, no way of knowing.
The only people who can just spend money purely for PR are nations like UAE and Qatar. They'd want success on the pitch more than return on their investment. Which at least bodes well for the club and it's fans. But of course, you never know when the West will sanction countries at will, leaving a lot of these 'oil clubs' reeling.
Who do you think is rich enough out there without having some corruption?
Dubai is one of the least corrupt and havent we had enough of 'rich' businessmen that see the club as a money making machine and be at least as bad as the parasites we have now.
Put it another way, do you want to fight Arsenal Spurs and Chelsea for 4th place every season, without moaning, whilst Newcastle City and Liverpool (will probably have owners like the other 2) fight for the title?
Think of Abu Dhabi and Dubai as two out of seven monarchies/emirates that decided to work together and were federated in 1971 — whereas the likes of Bahrain and Qatar established separate nation states in close proximity. Much of the pertinent information can be deduced from a couple of maps...Wait, aren't Dubai and Abu Dhabi both cities of the same country UAE? What's the difference in ownership?
Can’t see anyone paying 5-6 billion for us.Very promising news but difficult to get too excited until we know who's interested and it actually looks like happening.
Wait, aren't Dubai and Abu Dhabi both cities of the same country UAE? What's the difference in ownership?
They are distinct emirates in a state that incorporates seven different emirates, governed by different families. The most powerful and wealthy emirate of the seven is Abu Dhabi by far.
They are separate and somewhat independent emirates in United Arab Emirates - which consists of seven emirates. Abu Dhabi is the main emirate due to having UAE's oil income. Abu Dhabi have funded the other emirates for decades (and even bailed out Dubai after the last financial crisis) but the last decade or so has seen Dubai becoming more independent due to being a major tourist and financial hub. Also Dubai is the most western-oriented emirate by far - Abu Dhabi is way more conservative.
UAE isn't a country its more like the UK with a few states making it up
Their source of income in the past has mainly been Abu Dhabi's oil money, not their own. But they have been trying to stand on their own, by building up a major tourist and financial hub not only in the region, but in the world. Hard to tell how much money the DIC got, and their growth certainly been halted a bit by COVID (due to tourism industry and financial market the main affected by it) but on the surface it seems like a well-run state. Still used for whitewashing, but then again has London been for decades (more concerned about that city's future due to sanctions against Russia).
I think it'll be Americans taking over as part of a consortium like our sale. Or an investor who will remain silent allowing Glazers to continue running the club, but gives them the extra cash boost they would like.
No,I can only go on what I have read in the broadsheets, on Wikipedia, on what I have culled from the web. I realise that this is not the be all and end all of knowledge. However, there have been constant articles of European women being raped in Dubai, and being imprisoned for having drunk alcohol, of questionable working practices (akin to Qatar). so forgive me if I have been led up the garden path by various news outletsHave you ever been to Dubai?
I think you might be painting an entire region with a pretty broad brush.
It isnt. It’s basically borrowing to fuel its insane spending.
We will end up sponsored by poop trucks of Dubai.
All issues which Qatar is being demonised for, Dubai ticks all the boxes
That's 3.5% - 6.0% annualized return. This is not a good return for an illiquid investment. Which is exactly why there isn't much of a financial play here, and no one who cares about the returns is looking to buy the club for $7B and spend $3B on top of it.One real possibility is that we get a placeholder until we are sold to a long-term buyer in 10 years. A venture capitalist (VC) buyer.
That is not a bad option. They are basically buying the club to get more for it when they sell it. For them, they would see the price for buying out the Glazers, the costs for renovating the stadium and Carrington and additional transfer sums — as one ‘cost’.
I just cannot see a buyer like that be willing to buy a team like Manchester United only to be looking to sell a team that would be like West Ham United in 10 years. The upside is in be looking to sell a top 2-3 football club and brand in 2035.
This type of buyer would hence see this club as like a 10 bn investment. 7 bn to the Glazers, 1.5bn to make OT and Carrington state of the art and 1.5bn to put into the playing squad over 10 years.
If they do this — and what would they get for the club in like 2035? Things don’t get cheaper. It’s not a wild guess that they would get 15-20 bn for the club with just normal growth. Additional source of income could open up, we got one of the biggest brands in the world. It feels like a very low risk investment with upside. And you get the additional benefit of ‘being the owner of Manchester United’. Don’t underestimate the value of
Mike Ashley is rubbing his hands together.Can someone convince me that there isnt a scenario where we actually regret the Glazers going and somehow end up with even worse owners??
They were the first one to break the news of Qatar buying PSG and MBS buying Newcastle, if I remember it right.https://www.arabianbusiness.com/lif...ubai-on-red-alert-to-make-surprise-10-6bn-bid
It's a few hours old. Is Arabian Business a reputable news outlet?
I'm not saying you are wrong, but where do you got this info from? They got hit by covid obviously but their GDP is expected to rise significantly and the whole UAE economy seems stable in an overall unstable financial situation.
As for the Qatar comparison - Dubai is gearing towards a way more liberal and modern political and religious direction, which, with additional international scrutiny, I kinda expect will improve many areas they have received criticism for.
Can you post a few of these? Genuinely curious.No,I can only go on what I have read in the broadsheets, on Wikipedia, on what I have culled from the web. I realise that this is not the be all and end all of knowledge. However, there have been constant articles of European women being raped in Dubai, and being imprisoned for having drunk alcohol, of questionable working practices (akin to Qatar). so forgive me if I have been led up the garden path by various news outlets
Can someone convince me that there isnt a scenario where we actually regret the Glazers going and somehow end up with even worse owners??
I can imagine their local social media influencers getting excited by the rumour now:
#
The guy, not so much.
I mean journalists are hardly going to say the Glazers are looking for $5,972,441,038.68. They round it to make is easier to parse.Funny how all rumoured numbers are rounded despite that we are talking about bloody billions. "They will sell for 5 billion."
"They plan to get 7 billion"
"Glazers want 8 billion."
No,I can only go on what I have read in the broadsheets, on Wikipedia, on what I have culled from the web. I realise that this is not the be all and end all of knowledge. However, there have been constant articles of European women being raped in Dubai, and being imprisoned for having drunk alcohol, of questionable working practices (akin to Qatar). so forgive me if I have been led up the garden path by various news outlets
My gut feeling is that we have been put up for sale now because Liverpool have been put up for sale. If there are going to be Billionaires or rich consortiums sniffing around a club the Glazers would prefer it was us they buy rather than Liverpool.
If Dubai ended buying Liverpool, for example, then the pool of buyers who could afford United suddenly got a lot smaller. Better to sell now while there are still some big fish left out there.
Have you actually studied about Dubai or just lazily grouped the whole region together with a stereotype mindset?I will be uneasy if we are bought by any Middle Eastern buyer. Their record of human rights, treatment of women (women who have reported rape have been jailed for being drunk), workers rights etc etc in Dubai are almost on a par with Qatar or Saudi Arabia. As odious as the Glazers were, Dubai or Saudi will be worse
From what I've heard they both used to support United together and their favourite player was Ronaldo, Prince Hamdan is also now good friends with Ronaldo.Yeah, Dubai is loving international attention and wants to be the biggest and most important city in the world (see financial centre, DXB, Burj Khalifa etc - they even made Dubai Eye slightly taller than London Eye just because ) can be tempted into buying perhaps the most globally well-known sporting institution. I knew the former crown prince was a United fan (the one who died a few years ago) but according to the cliff on here the current crown prince, Hamdan is also a United fan so you never know.
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense for an oil rich country to buy us. The only bright side in all that is that they'll probably sack everyone and appoint the best in business at key positions and let them run things.