I work with public M&A and have a few thoughts on what is going on here, that I think are indisputable:
*”As part of this process, the Board will consider all strategic alternatives, including new investment into the club, a sale, or other transactions involving the Company.”
What does this means?
(a) Look, the board has a fiduciary duty to act in the way that is best for all shareholders. If there is a sale of the club, there will be litigation in the US. If they sold the shares of the club — and someone sues them saying ‘you lost us money by not selling off the assets instead’, the board will be deemed negligible if it can’t show that they acted “with the care that an ordinarily prudent person in a like position would exercise under similar circumstances”. That includes not just ruling out options without looking into them.
I.e. it is perfectly possible that they are looking to sell 100% of close to 100% of the shares.
This is what the entire first half of the PR is about:
“We will evaluate all options … Throughout this process we will remain fully focused on serving the best interests of our fans, shareholders, and various stakeholders.”
(b) We are dealing with the Glazers here, they won’t waste money if they don’t have to.
If the Glazers want to explore selling their shares and hence wants to sign top financial and legal advisors — who pays the retainer? The Glazsers can’t ask the financial advisor to send the bill to the Club.
With this mission for the financial advisor, they are acting on behalf of the club and Glazers won’t be picking up the bill.
*Could the new buyer be worse than the Glazers?
I don’t know the answer to that, of course. But it’s not 2005 anymore, where football clubs weren’t seen as investments and the sale of our club to the Glazers was perhaps not handled properly.
What I do know is this — the offers to buy the club will 100% be established against the background of what a buyer think can be justified against economical data or other concerns. Since there of course will be plenty of interested buyers, as a result, the highest bid will come from the buyer who sees the brightest future for Manchester United financially, which in its turn can motivate the highest price tag. At worst. There could of course always come in a buyer looking for an alibi, expensive toy or whatever.
The Glazers brought a club that — from a financial POV — was ‘decline proof’ for what a decade and a half. We are United, one of the the biggest club in the world. But this will not continue if the club remains outside all real competitions for titles for another 17 years or whatever. Slowly but surely our position in the football world is eroding. And it can get a lot worse fast. Under the Glazers, we haven’t contended for the title [since SAF left] really, but we been in and out of the Champions league, been the runner up for the title and so forth. There is no guarantee that we will become a CL team over the coming 10 years.
Hence, our club — for a new buyer — is anything but decline proof. This buyer could 100% buy one of the biggest clubs in the world and in 15 years time he looking to sell a mediocre PL team with a great history.
As a consequence, I personally think it’s very very likely that a new buyer will be looking to invest in the club. I just cannot imagine a scenario where a buyer — who will be the one entity that sees the brightest future for the team — will be someone who won’t look to invest in the club.
*What is the time frame?
The market is very very sour right now. There are no guarantees for any deal to get made fast.
For the Glazers to sell of their holdings of shares in United — it could be done fast. Could take a month. But that does not include a proper vendor auction process. It’s someone calling them up asking for a number, being given one, and then acting on it instantly.
A more likely scenario is Q1 2023. I think that is what they are aiming for. Q2 2023 could also be an option.