I'm not so sure about either conclusion. In fact, I can see them hanging on or going with Ratcliffe.
United's debt is on United. Yes, a financial collapse will be catastrophic for us but not the Glazers. They can watch it collapse and make do with their athwart billions, as could other shareholders.
They won't want this to happen hence the assessment of options, including a potential sale. It is early to suggest they are desperate. Remember, United will have much easier access to the CL money-pit soon and seem to have turned a corner. The announcement of record profit will influence the Glazer's ultimate decision, either to stay or increase the price.
As for being in good hands post-sale, I cannot see what you are basing this on. Qatar's psg comedy is the biggest circus in town, whilst Ineos represent continuity Glazers. We don't particularly know how things will develop but all evidence is worrying.
Whilst I vehemently agree with you both potential owners do not inspire confidence, I do agree that the Glazer siblings remote managing a behemoth like united with increasing interest rates and more importantly the Leveraged buy out was a 20 year loan, the club has only been service the interest for that loan, they have not paid the debt off but they have to either ;
A. Settle the debt of £535m
B. Or reschedule the Debt but that would entail some debt repayment of at least 33/50%
The Glazers have just been sanctioned FFP for the first time during their tenure only £287,000 however this is because the Goblins have never put a penny into the club and they will continue to never put a penny in when they or whoever buys the club must to prevent huge FFP/FSP issues going forward. They could have put £120m FFP over 3 years to help the club through the covid Crisis but they never did.
Fast forward 1 year with all 6 still in charge best case scenario ;
1. Club finishes top 3 - 80 points
2. Club 1/4 CL
3. Club Wins Fa Cup
4. Club gets to Carabo 1/4
5. Revenue grows to £675m
6. Accounts look better but FFP fine us €20m
7. Accounts state that no dividends can be taken second year running
8. Interest rates go up new cost to service £535m debt is £55m, so another £15m on top of this year.
9. Current Cash position of club is worse than 2023 of £73m to £35m for 2024, Credit card now only has £100m from £300m left on it.
10. No stadium or training improvements
11. Financial Sustainability for 2024 would be 80% of £675m so the club can only spend £540m on
Wages, Net Transfers, Amortised Transfer Fees , Agent and Expenses Fees and Financial Costs and running. Assuming our wage bill will be at least £350m by then with new player recruits, Amortised transfer yearly cost of £90m, Agent Fees & Expenses £40m, Financial £50m interest to service debt plus a loss or a profit, looking at the last 3 years this is another loss of at least £60/70m that’s a cost of £580/590m against an allowance of £540m!
We could get kicked out if Europe but probably accrue a huge fine which the Glazers simply can’t afford?
Summary
My point, if they don’t sell by the latest time period, which is this winter window, then the value of the club starts to go down dramatically, both Bidders are aware that the financial situation is so bad, that if the Glazers left it another two years and the shares plummet back to $12 each, the club value might be nearer £4.5bn not £5.5bn!
This is the double bluff that Joel and Avram are hoping for they are sitting there hoping SJ will say ok I’ll give you £6bn for the club now, however 92 Foundation might double bluff them and just walk away, the reality is we as fans really don’t have a clue but one thing is sure if the Glazers do not get investment, they have to sell and probably within 12 months!
