Why SJ looks like winning.
Caveat, I would prefer SJ, he will remove the Glazers and I appreciate that SJR will be similarly looking to do so but his strategy, in my opinion, leaves then lurking and not certain.
1. SJ has and retains the financial capacity to bid the most.
2 why has he not ended the process, because he knows, within a margin of error, that his bid is the most attractive, financially and practically.
We have been frustrated by his bids which appear, on face value, as being lower that SJR's, however he may have factored in the following:
The Glazer family need and want to sell. They have on average removed about £50 million a year for the last 12 years via share sales and dividends. They have one year left of doing the same but after one more year of share sales that is it.They can't go below 2/3 ownership.
Some of the siblings have already sold their, sellable allowance of shares, assuming those siblings have sold about 3.5%ish each of the 20% that the Glazers had available to sell on the NYSE (20% ÷ 6 siblings). Originally sold 10% and then over the last 10 years 20%.
The club needs a financial injection, Old Trafford/facilities. The Glazers do not intend to enter into any meaningful upgrade.
They have never looked to put their own money in and would not do so now. Each pound put in, as direct investment, would, theoretically amount to giving the Class A shareholders 30p for their holding. They are not going to do that, unless a new stadium allowed them to recoup a massive return on their outlay, but that would have to be almost doubling their investment when taking into account the 30p they are immediately benefitting the class A shareholders with and then added to the costs of obtaining that investment money.
Take a loan out against United - not an option because of the lack of lenders willing to provide finance at a reasonable rate, only option appears to be Investment Funds who are the lenders of last resort due to their aggressive nature to see a good return.
The portrayed option of only selling off only the Glazer share to the disadvantage of Class A shareholders. A poor option because the Class A shareholders will take them to court if they are sold out and investors must be correspondence reminding the board of their duty.
AV and Joel to stay on? A leveraging ruse to create the fiction of options. AV is one of the biggest sibling stake sellers, he has no interest in the club beyond taking out as much as possible. There may be upside in the future but it is not obviously foreseeable and involves more risk than other alternatives.
SJR's creative option has been overplayed for leverage. For the reasons above, they cannot ignore the Class A shareholders and they know/realised this. Some of the institutional investors increased their stakes, during the process, and will only have done so after fully considering their positions and options. They have the Glazers in their sights and the Glazers track record as poor custodians and their self serving governance are no doubt backed up with the investors lawyers assurances of a sound legal case, if necessary.
Based on the above there is only one option available to the Glazers, full sale to SJ.
Knowing this, the Glazers have manipulated the process to be as obscure as possible, hoping that SJ will be fooled into bidding more.
However the reality is SJ's team will know this and have been patiently tagging along, although now are increasingly frustrated by the Glazer's sham tactic of creating a bidding war.
The Glazers have used everything possible to muddy the process:
minority stake
may not sell
silent treatment
however SJ's team have not just conceded and paid the OTT sum the Glazer's want, even if they are still paying more than the club is technically worth.
The question remains, will SJR be able to improve his bid and appease the Class A shareholders. This will be extremely difficult given the highly leveraged nature of his bid. SJR is not stupid but perhaps pride has fogged his judgement on this occasion.
I can't believe that SJR is participating in a scam with the Glazers to get SJ to just pay more, SJR is much wealthier than the Glazers combined, why sully your reputation for the Glazer family, INEOS make billions per month. He is definitely not a patsy, he wants the club but hopefully that won't involve the Glazers or funding from the investment fund sharks.
The final question is how long will the Glazers give SJR?
SJ will wait but he must be disturbed with all the delays and hopefully has given the Glazer's an incentivised time driven option.
The media blackout suggests that things are coming to a conclusion otherwise the SJ team, in particular, would have vocalised their frustration, as they have done during the silent treatment/SJR is winning phase.