If these figures are to be believed,then it is clear that Sheikh Jassim's bid is far more better than Ratchcliffe's.
This is the breakdown,based on my understanding using the figures you provided:
Ratchcliffe's offer:
Enterprise Value=£ 5.5 billion
Glazers share (69%) = £ 3.795 billion.
Ratchcliffe offers to buy 50.01% of £5.5 billion now = £ 2.75 billion.
Ratchcliffe offers to buy the remaining 19% 3 years later = £ 1.045 billion
Total amount to be paid by Ratchcliffe to the Glazers 69% = £ 3.795 billion
Sharing £ 3.795 billion among the 6 Glazers = £ 3.795 billion÷6 = £ 632,500
Therefore,On the average,each Glazer receives about six hundred and thirty -two million pounds.
Sheikh Jassim's bid:
Enterprise Value=£ 5.2 billion
Glazers share (69%) = £ 3.588 billion.
Sheikh Jassim offers to buy all the 69% owned by the Glazers now = £ 3.588 billion.
The Glazers also own 4.3% class A shares = £ 220 million).
Total amount to be paid by Sheikh Jassim to the Glazers = £ 3.588 billion + £ 220 million = £ 3.808 billion.
Sharing £ 3.808 billion among the 6 Glazers = £ 3.808 billion÷6 = £ 634,666.67 million .
Therefore,On the average,each Glazer receives about six hundred and thirty -five million pounds.
The big difference now is that, the Sheikh' offer is NOW (cash) whereas that of Sir Ratchcliffe's is in installment.
If these figures are to go by,then the Sheikh's offer is far better as the cash received now could be invested which stands the chance of giving the Glazers a far higher reward than Ratchcliffe's offer.
Am not even considering the debt, infrastructure and other investment pledges.
I have said it before and I will repeat that,the Glazers seem to be using SJR to extract more from the Sheikh.
Else, exclusivity could have been given to SJR if his offer was far higher than the Sheikh's since the second or the 3rd round/bids.
But there are a lot of things we (the supporters and the media) don't know yet. So am not believing anything I see or read until an official statement is out.
I see most of the news and tweets in the media as propaganda.
I think your are pretty much on the money, that the two bids are much closer than what’s being rumoured but still no one has answered the most important question?
you can offer an enterprise value per share of say $30 so selling all of their 113m B controlling shares for $3.39bn, Forbes recently valued the club at $6bn which is twice the market cap for a reason. If you buy controlling shares of the club you also take over considerable assets of land around old Trafford which the Glazers have been buying up since 2008, they, the Glazers want a premium ontop of the shares to relinquish their control and allow SJ to build restaurants and hotels or SJR to set up fracking Site(That’s a joke btw!)
They also have future broadcast and merchandising deals in place which are all part of Forbes $6bn evaluation and again the Glazers do not want to relinquish these since they basically have paid their dividends every year bar one of £20m per year for all 6 Siblings. Again they don’t want to relinquish these future deals unless someone compensates them accordingly.
I also thought that both Bids both like you valued at 100% and then the Glazers expected 69% of that value to buy out all of their shares(or 51% in SJR new bid) most fans assumed that this was the amount to be paid to the Glazers to relinquish control yes £6bn to the Glazers as the 100% valuation of the club is not necessarily 100% of shares it also includes Current assets, both short and long term like Player Squad Value and Property owned outright by the clubs , plus more importantly future Broadcasting and Merchandising deals.
I also like you, assumed that the Glazers would only get 69% or 51% of the valuation but the more I dig into this the more it seems that the bids by both parties are to take over the controlling shares and involve much more that a simple purchase and transfer of shares.
So for example SJR bid is £5.4 possibly going up to £6bn for 51% of the Glazer Control including compensatory payments for loss of future broadcasting, merchandise contracts, relinquishing control of the clubs short, mid and long term assets.
So SJR valued the shares at $30 which is 163 million at $30 = $4.89bn (£3.92bn) plus the club debt which must be factored into the bid even though it does not have to be cleared under a merger takeover of $675m(£570m) and then Ineos made an additional payment in lieu of Future assets, Broadcasting and Merchandising of £800m or $1bn This would mean that the Glazers would receive 113m shares at a guaranteed $30 which is $3.390 Billion plus $1bn to relinquish control of the club giving them a guaranteed buy out of $4.39bn (But it could rise to $4.99bn).
The deal from SJR and Ineos would mean 73% of that agreed deal must be paid now and 27% later in a structured put and call layered take over where they payments could go up but never down.
So for clarity SJR woulD have to pay $3.20bn (£2.6bn) now for 51% controlling shares and a minimum of $1.239bn(£1bn) over 4 years but this could also rise to $1.87bn(£1.5bn) dependent on team success.
This is how the £6bn bid is actually being pitched it’s like Sky Reporting we bought A Martial for £58m because it assumes that all the clauses to meet that value will be met.
SJ offer of $6.5/6.6bn might also value the club slightly differently on that ;
1. The debt is paid $675m
2. They value the shares at $29 so 163m 163*29 = $4.72 billion (£3.78bn)
3. Legacy payment to relinquish control $1.1bn(£882m)
Therefore the Glazers would get 113m @29 = $3.277 billion plus $1.1bn legacy plus $220m for selling remaining 4.3% of A shares giving them a total right now of $4.6bn (£3.7bn) cash and tax free right now.
I’m scratching my head right now too as this whole process is so more complicated than a normal merger needs to be.
Conclusion neither bid is accepted by the Glazers as they clearly want £6bn minimum and they want the money upfront and not a penny less !
