Yep your pretty much spot on, however the VC will want two things, their own President/CEO on the board plus a say in how future investment will be made. Hypothetically the VC offers £4bn for the club but buy out the 4 siblings at £2Bn, this money only goes to the other 4 glazers not the club, so they would want something for this, no way they are doing that and then adding another £2bn for club investment which is what would be needed for stadium, training complex and squad improvements to own only A shares.
The more likely scenario is that they would gain 49% of new voting B shares with Joel and Avram retaining 51% in a restructure that would completely leave both remaining brothers wide open for a hostile takeover later on. Let’s be clear here, they would also expect the additional £1.5-2bn loan for restructure and stadium improvements to be repaid back all be it at reduce rate or interest free loan. This is structural refinancing of the club and more DEBT which may hopefully result in huge penalties to the Glazers that result in non repayments to the VC resulting in transfer of B share equity from Joel and Avram to the minority stake holder.
The club would be almost dual owned and the VC would want a significant return on their investment. If they invested £4Bn they would want back at least £6bn back in 7 years when all the investment has finished. So the two glazers left theoretically would be able to make £1.5/2bn each rather than £650,000- 750,000k now but neither are hands managers of successful businesses so this just won’t work.
Could they do it ? Yes they could but the problems will be monumental, on the plus side.
1. Only 2 Glazers will be left from the original 6
2. No dividends will be allowed by Vc as part of the agreement unless a serious profit is made after repaying the existing debt.
3. Transfers would be relatively unaffected and still driven by payer sales under FSP
4. Arnold and Murtourgh would stay who seem to have built up a good relationship with ETH
5. I’m pretty confident that a part of the agreement will be the introduction of a new CEO from the VC side who will be put in above Arnold and be more hands on.
6. The contract that The VC make with the two remaining Glazers will completely find them out, they could leave with very little if the debt gets out of control.
7. This maybe true and may force SJ to bid £6 billion now and that might still not enough with these parasites