Climate Change | UN Report: Code Red for humanity

[Cheimoon]

It continues to amaze me how we have specialists (or at least: knowledgeable people) about pretty much anything on here.

 

[Stack]

Its now 344 months since we last had a month with a cooler than average global temperature. Thats about 28 1/2 years. There are people on this forum who have never experienced a single cooler than average global monthly temperature.

 

[The Corinthian]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57149741


Just 20 companies are the source of more than half of all the single-use plastic items thrown away globally.
That's the conclusion of analysis of the corporate network behind plastic production.
The study looked at approximately 1,000 factories that make the raw materials needed for single-use products.
Plastic bottles, food packages and bags are among billions of items that are used once and then thrown away, often ending up in the oceans.
The research - carried out by a consortium including the London School of Economics - looked at which companies are at the base of the plastic supply chain and make polymers, the building blocks of all plastics.
It names 20 petrochemical companies which it says are the source of 55 per cent of the world's single-use plastic waste. The companies include ExxonMobil, Dow and Sinopec.

 

[sun_tzu]

Its now 344 months since we last had a month with a cooler than average global temperature. Thats about 28 1/2 years. There are people on this forum who have never experienced a single cooler than average global monthly temperature.

Doesnt that depend on what period you choose to define "average" over?

 

[sun_tzu]

Global ban on gas boilers proposed... from 2025

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57149059

That seems like a very tight timeframe for people to have alternatives in place... I know the plan was for new build homes in the UK to have alternatives by 2025... but to ban all sales is a much harder task as developing comminity heating for a whole estate is one thing (heat pumps etc)... but if somebodys boiler breaks in an older house after the ban comes in i dont see what real alternatives people will have - (beyond ripping out all gas heating in the house and installing electric?)

I think the 2025 target for new homes was almost certainly going to fail anyway but this would be even harder to implement.

dont see us getting anywhere close to the 2030 targets ... probably be lucky to get to the 2030 targets by 2050 given the structural level of change needed for some of this stuff

 

[One Night Only]

Global ban on gas boilers proposed... from 2025

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57149059

That seems like a very tight timeframe for people to have alternatives in place... I know the plan was for new build homes in the UK to have alternatives by 2025... but to ban all sales is a much harder task as developing comminity heating for a whole estate is one thing (heat pumps etc)... but if somebodys boiler breaks in an older house after the ban comes in i dont see what real alternatives people will have - (beyond ripping out all gas heating in the house and installing electric?)

I think the 2025 target for new homes was almost certainly going to fail anyway but this would be even harder to implement.

dont see us getting anywhere close to the 2030 targets ... probably be lucky to get to the 2030 targets by 2050 given the structural level of change needed for some of this stuff

Yeah it's not feasible. Its ridiculous how short that time frame is and how expensive the alternatives are going to be.

 

[Abizzz]

Global ban on gas boilers proposed... from 2025

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57149059

That seems like a very tight timeframe for people to have alternatives in place... I know the plan was for new build homes in the UK to have alternatives by 2025... but to ban all sales is a much harder task as developing comminity heating for a whole estate is one thing (heat pumps etc)... but if somebodys boiler breaks in an older house after the ban comes in i dont see what real alternatives people will have - (beyond ripping out all gas heating in the house and installing electric?)

I think the 2025 target for new homes was almost certainly going to fail anyway but this would be even harder to implement.

dont see us getting anywhere close to the 2030 targets ... probably be lucky to get to the 2030 targets by 2050 given the structural level of change needed for some of this stuff

Only makes sense if the electricity is produced cleaner than it is to heat with gas by 2025, which surely isn't likely for much of the world. We'll get coal powered electricity to heat up inefficient (because the vast amount of world population can't afford heat pumps) they'll use 'normal' electrical heaters.

Doesn't seem well thought out.

 

[calodo2003]

 

[sun_tzu]

Only makes sense if the electricity is produced cleaner than it is to heat with gas by 2025, which surely isn't likely for much of the world. We'll get coal powered electricity to heat up inefficient (because the vast amount of world population can't afford heat pumps) they'll use 'normal' electrical heaters.

Doesn't seem well thought out.

Agreed... I'm not sure how practical it is going to be to have all electric cars by the dates they give either (materials, new factories, and the changes needed to electricity grids to cope with the demand)

 

[Buster15]

Agreed... I'm not sure how practical it is going to be to have all electric cars by the dates they give either (materials, new factories, and the changes needed to electricity grids to cope with the demand)

While I am passionate about actions to reduce man-made climate change, this aim is clearly not practical, even here in the UK.
In less than 4 years to replace highly efficient gas boilers with what?
I have looked at Heat Pumps and apart from the prohibitive costs, they will not be able to heat the house and water to the same level as a gas boiler.

 

[sun_tzu]

While I am passionate about actions to reduce man-made climate change, this aim is clearly not practical, even here in the UK.
In less than 4 years to replace highly efficient gas boilers with what?
I have looked at Heat Pumps and apart from the prohibitive costs, they will not be able to heat the house and water to the same level as a gas boiler.

I work for a dutch company and we have heat pumps in our offices and a lot of colleagues have them in homes

You can heat up a house ok but you need much bigger radiators (due to the water being a lower temperature) and you also have to accept it takes a lot longer to heat the space up - so coming back from work and banging the heating on for half an hour (or having a timer set for just before you get up) really does not do the trick... we had a new office built and its really energy efficient but again people have told me they have had to spend a fortune on their older houses (windows, insulation etc) to improve them.

Beyond that there is also the practicalities of producing enough heat pumps worldwide in a very short tiescale, and getting all the gas fitters trained up and ready to do a massive switch over.

The problem with ideas like this that seem like a good long term objective but will be massivley impractical in the short term is people simply wont buy into them (literally in this case as the cost will be very high)... policies like this will do more harm than good in getting people onboard with climate friendly policies.

 

[decorativeed]

I work for a dutch company and we have heat pumps in our offices and a lot of colleagues have them in homes

You can heat up a house ok but you need much bigger radiators (due to the water being a lower temperature) and you also have to accept it takes a lot longer to heat the space up - so coming back from work and banging the heating on for half an hour (or having a timer set for just before you get up) really does not do the trick... we had a new office built and its really energy efficient but again people have told me they have had to spend a fortune on their older houses (windows, insulation etc) to improve them.

Beyond that there is also the practicalities of producing enough heat pumps worldwide in a very short tiescale, and getting all the gas fitters trained up and ready to do a massive switch over.

The problem with ideas like this that seem like a good long term objective but will be massivley impractical in the short term is people simply wont buy into them (literally in this case as the cost will be very high)... policies like this will do more harm than good in getting people onboard with climate friendly policies.

To be fair, I don't think this has come from government, but is policy advice from an environmental group.

I'd always been told that modern gas boilers were the most efficient way to heat homes. Surely replacing that with electric heating at the same time as trying to get people to switch to electric cars is not going to happen with the current infastructure.

 

[sun_tzu]

To be fair, I don't think this has come from government, but is policy advice from an environmental group.

I'd always been told that modern gas boilers were the most efficient way to heat homes. Surely replacing that with electric heating at the same time as trying to get people to switch to electric cars is not going to happen with the current infastructure.

Energy efficient and Co2 efficient is not always the same thing though...

It is indeed a policy group and i think their aim is to try and get it included in the glasgow climate talks (I doubt they will succeed)... Their objective is I believe more heat pump type scenarios rather than electric deomestic heating - as you say switching to cars will be hard enough and i note their reccomendations actually talk about fuel cell trucks as well as electric - personally knowing the work involved with reconfiguring the grid I expect fuel cell to be the long term solution for cars as well rather than electric (how is the electricity generated, how do you get that electric where and when you need it, where does all the materials for batteries come from and what happens at the end of the batterys life) ... That said the longer we leave it to find and implement alternatives the worse the immpact of the climate change will be - we really are at the point of damage limitation already and unfortunatley the long term financial implications of CV19 for govenment finances will probably not help with them funcing big structural changes quickly and in a coordinated manner.

 

[decorativeed]

Energy efficient and Co2 efficient is not always the same thing though...

It is indeed a policy group and i think their aim is to try and get it included in the glasgow climate talks (I doubt they will succeed)... Their objective is I believe more heat pump type scenarios rather than electric deomestic heating - as you say switching to cars will be hard enough and i note their reccomendations actually talk about fuel cell trucks as well as electric - personally knowing the work involved with reconfiguring the grid I expect fuel cell to be the long term solution for cars as well rather than electric (how is the electricity generated, how do you get that electric where and when you need it, where does all the materials for batteries come from and what happens at the end of the batterys life) ... That said the longer we leave it to find and implement alternatives the worse the immpact of the climate change will be - we really are at the point of damage limitation already and unfortunatley the long term financial implications of CV19 for govenment finances will probably not help with them funcing big structural changes quickly and in a coordinated manner.

Surely converting natural gas into electricity by burning it and back to heat after transmission down the grid is massively inefficient in every way?

 

[sun_tzu]

Surely converting natural gas into electricity by burning it and back to heat after transmission down the grid is massively inefficient in every way?

Yes electricity heating is very inneficient but as the proposal is switching gas to heat pumps (I agree in practical terms people might actually switch to electric heaters but even on the basis they want heat pumps to be the solution)

then it depends on what metrc efficiency is measured... gas will heat your house up a lot quicker than a heat pump... it will also cost less... so on two metrics there it is more efficient.

A heat pump will be the most Co2 efficient way

it really depends on what metric you want to judge it - I suspect for most people practical effectivness and cost would be the two they would win out in their brain even if their heart tells them heat pumps are the best thing to do.

If the practical result though is that people spend a fortune switching to heat pumps and they then find they dont heat stuff quick enough so people but lots of the little electric heaters then yes we end up burning gas to make elctricity to loose a lot of that through transmission - to then distribute to people to use super inneficient electric heaters ... in an ideal world i guess everybody would have a mini wind generator and solar panels installed at the same time along with a battery that provided most of their electricity without the need for additional generation and transmission - but yeah in practical terms I guess we are at 20K for the heat pumps, 20K for the solar and 20k for a mini turnine, 20k for a battery system and perhaps 20k retrofitting other stuff in the house... so yeah 100k a house and about 9 million houses... so £900,000,000,000... lets just call it a trillion quid (and thats not actually unachievable it does however require probably a 20 year plan to get there and pay for it - not a 4 year plan)

 

[decorativeed]

Yes electricity heating is very inneficient but as the proposal is switching gas to heat pumps (I agree in practical terms people might actually switch to electric heaters but even on the basis they want heat pumps to be the solution)

then it depends on what metrc efficiency is measured... gas will heat your house up a lot quicker than a heat pump... it will also cost less... so on two metrics there it is more efficient.

A heat pump will be the most Co2 efficient way

it really depends on what metric you want to judge it - I suspect for most people practical effectivness and cost would be the two they would win out in their brain even if their heart tells them heat pumps are the best thing to do.

If the practical result though is that people spend a fortune switching to heat pumps and they then find they dont heat stuff quick enough so people but lots of the little electric heaters then yes we end up burning gas to make elctricity to loose a lot of that through transmission - to then distribute to people to use super inneficient electric heaters ... in an ideal world i guess everybody would have a mini wind generator and solar panels installed at the same time along with a battery that provided most of their electricity without the need for additional generation and transmission - but yeah in practical terms I guess we are at 20K for the heat pumps, 20K for the solar and 20k for a mini turnine, 20k for a battery system and perhaps 20k retrofitting other stuff in the house... so yeah 100k a house and about 9 million houses... so £900,000,000,000... lets just call it a trillion quid (and thats not actually unachievable it does however require probably a 20 year plan to get there and pay for it - not a 4 year plan)

I'd imagine the manufacturing and installing of heatpumps would cause a fair bit of environmental damage in itself that would take years before the benefit outwieghed the initial cost.

Don't heatpumps require excavation of land so that they are installed underground?

 

[sun_tzu]

I'd imagine the manufacturing and installing of heatpumps would cause a fair bit of environmental damage in itself that would take years before the benefit outwieghed the initial cost.

Don't heatpumps require excavation of land so that they are installed underground?

Can be based underground - a ground level watersource can also be used (though again not entirely environmentally neutral) ... https://www.icax.co.uk/Water_Source_Heat_Pump.html

The key disadvantage of using a very large body of water to achieve heat exchange with a relatively constant temperature is that you are not able to store summer heat in that body of water – to have the benefit of retrieving those higher temperatures in winter.

largly depends on the geography - I dont think there is much geothermal potential in most parts of the UK

And yes the worldwide manufactire at mass scale of heat pumps as well as new radiators, pipes, how to recycle / landfill the stuff that is ripped out... all of it seems to make the timescale they talk about a non starter i think

Even batteries, solar and wind power have resonably high environmental impact in the short term through the extraction, manufacture and transport process - and of course some of these have major end of life issues (batteries for example)

 

[Buster15]

I work for a dutch company and we have heat pumps in our offices and a lot of colleagues have them in homes

You can heat up a house ok but you need much bigger radiators (due to the water being a lower temperature) and you also have to accept it takes a lot longer to heat the space up - so coming back from work and banging the heating on for half an hour (or having a timer set for just before you get up) really does not do the trick... we had a new office built and its really energy efficient but again people have told me they have had to spend a fortune on their older houses (windows, insulation etc) to improve them.

Beyond that there is also the practicalities of producing enough heat pumps worldwide in a very short tiescale, and getting all the gas fitters trained up and ready to do a massive switch over.

The problem with ideas like this that seem like a good long term objective but will be massivley impractical in the short term is people simply wont buy into them (literally in this case as the cost will be very high)... policies like this will do more harm than good in getting people onboard with climate friendly policies.

Thank you. Very interesting. I am sure that Heat Pumps will have their place going forward. But, regarding new builds, in the UK they are building ever smaller houses and in much more density.
So very little space for ground source ones. And the air source ones will be significantly more expensive than a traditional gas boiler and require a fair amount of additional electricity.
I do know that gas boiler manufacturers say their new boilers will be capable of running on Hydrogen. But producing Hydrogen is still energy intensive.
I very much agree with you about how these policies are best delivered. If it is Heat Pumps, there is a lot of explaining to do.

 

[sun_tzu]

Thank you. Very interesting. I am sure that Heat Pumps will have their place going forward. But, regarding new builds, in the UK they are building ever smaller houses and in much more density.
So very little space for ground source ones. And the air source ones will be significantly more expensive than a traditional gas boiler and require a fair amount of additional electricity.
I do know that gas boiler manufacturers say their new boilers will be capable of running on Hydrogen. But producing Hydrogen is still energy intensive.
I very much agree with you about how these policies are best delivered. If it is Heat Pumps, there is a lot of explaining to do.

Ref The hydrogen... somebody told me the theory was that windfarms at night produce quite a lot of unised energy - this could be used to get the hydrogen from water and this hydrogen sent to houses for power... however my understanding was that it would only work for up to 17% of houses in the Uk due to distance to a lot of wind farms (scotland etc)... and its actually one of the reasons the government is reluctant to enforce a law makinng boilers capable of running on hydrogen or existing gas as they dont want to burden the 83% with a cost when only 17% can benefit

I would also add that if everbbody moves to electric cars and we increase the use of batter storage and hyro electric we have even less spare capacity to produce hydrogen ... as with a lot of these things each idea in isolation sounds achievable but putting everything together (especially on an accelerated timescale) less so

Nuclear Fusion remains the long term hope I guess... but its been that for well over 50 years now and being realistic even if breakthroughs are made in the coming years to scale that up and design / build mass scale plants is probably going to be 50 years again

 

[nimic]

Heat pumps are ubiquitous in residential heating in Norway, and they are not that expensive to set up and maintain. We do have cheap electricity though, and very high standards for housing construction.

 

[Buster15]

Ref The hydrogen... somebody told me the theory was that windfarms at night produce quite a lot of unised energy - this could be used to get the hydrogen from water and this hydrogen sent to houses for power... however my understanding was that it would only work for up to 17% of houses in the Uk due to distance to a lot of wind farms (scotland etc)... and its actually one of the reasons the government is reluctant to enforce a law makinng boilers capable of running on hydrogen or existing gas as they dont want to burden the 83% with a cost when only 17% can benefit

I would also add that if everbbody moves to electric cars and we increase the use of batter storage and hyro electric we have even less spare capacity to produce hydrogen ... as with a lot of these things each idea in isolation sounds achievable but putting everything together (especially on an accelerated timescale) less so

Nuclear Fusion remains the long term hope I guess... but its been that for well over 50 years now and being realistic even if breakthroughs are made in the coming years to scale that up and design / build mass scale plants is probably going to be 50 years again

That is what I understand as well for potential Hydrogen production. In the UK, the vast majority of wind farms are at sea for obvious reasons.
I do understand that heat pumps are being used in northern European countries. And there is a separate thread on this very subject.

Electric propulsion for vehicles is now perfectly good enough for cars. But a very significant traffic volume involves trucks. And electric propulsion is not yet suitable for the larger trucks. And again, hydrogen is being seen as a solicitation.

Whatever the answers, we are all going to have to make significant changes to the way we use energy if we are going to reach the climate change targets.

 

[Buster15]

Heat pumps are ubiquitous in residential heating in Norway, and they are not that expensive to set up and maintain. We do have cheap electricity though, and very high standards for housing construction.

Are these ground source or air source heat pumps?

 

[nimic]

Are these ground source or air source heat pumps?

Both, but I would guess air source are much more common for houses and apartments that are part of smaller units. Larger apartment complexes I can't really speak to.

Certainly gas heating is a non-starter here; the fact that the heating was already nearly completely electrical probably made the transition to heat pumps easier. We're two or three decades into their common use by now.

 

[Buster15]

Both, but I would guess air source are much more common for houses and apartments that are part of smaller units. Larger apartment complexes I can't really speak to.

Certainly gas heating is a non-starter here; the fact that the heating was already nearly completely electrical probably made the transition to heat pumps easier. We're two or three into their common use by now.

Again, that is very interesting.
When you compare the unit price we pay for home energy, electricity is over four times the price as gas. That must explain the fact that the vast majority of home heating and hot water uses natural gas.
The very latest high efficiency gas boilers are well over 90% efficient.
I wonder what the relative figures are for heat pumps.

 

[Cheimoon]

Again, that is very interesting.
When you compare the unit price we pay for home energy, electricity is over four times the price as gas. That must explain the fact that the vast majority of home heating and hot water uses natural gas.
The very latest high efficiency gas boilers are well over 90% efficient.
I wonder what the relative figures are for heat pumps.

Same here. Well, not exactly the same, but electricity is also more expensive in Ontario than gas. They also want people to switch to electrical heating and heat pumps, but it's going to be a big effort to convince people that it's worth it - and it will require ginormous amounts of subsidies.

I would love to have full electric heating btw, especially the kind we had in a previous house, where we had a programmable thermostat in each room, so temperatures adjusted as required for each part of the day individually in different parts of the house. But I am also waiting for subsidies to come available... (They keep saying they're coming.)

 

[Buster15]

Same here. Well, not exactly the same, but electricity is also much more expensive in Ontario than gas. They also want people to switch to electrical heating and heat pumps, but it's going to be a big effort to convince people that it's worth it - and it will require ginormous amounts of subsidies.

I would love to have full electric heating btw, especially the kind we had in a previous house, where we had a programmable thermostat in each room, so temperatures adjusted as required for each part of the day individually in different parts of the house. But I am also waiting for subsidies to come available... (They keep saying they're coming.)

Here, houses/flats which doesn't have gas ch are very difficult to sell for that very reason.

 

[Buster15]

Very interesting and potentially highly significant article on the BBC website regarding the UK MAST Nuclear Fusion experimental reactor. It involves a process for the removal of excess heat allowing the fusion process to operate longer.
Hopefully another small step toward a commercial nuclear fusion reactor.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57232644

 

[berbatrick]

Actually, I'm going to post this one in another, more appropriate thread too.

 

[Buster15]

95 years old and still telling all of the us what we need to listen to.
I just hope that his pleas to the worlds leaders about taking actions rather than just more hot air come to fruition before he is no longer with us.

https://news.sky.com/story/g7-summi...te-change-decisions-in-human-history-12331232

 

[Cheimoon]

Leaked report sends dire climate warning
The next Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report will deliver an unprecedented climate-change wake-up call, reports the AFP news agency. The leaked draft report, due to be released next year, says that global temperatures are already at 1.1 ℃ above levels in the mid-nineteenth century. Even if we meet the Paris climate agreement target of keeping temperatures below 1.5 ℃, “conditions will change beyond many organisms' ability to adapt”. And if we continue on current trends, we are headed to break 3 ℃ — with serious, irreversible consequences. “The worst is yet to come, affecting our children’s and grandchildren’s lives much more than our own,” the draft report states. “We need transformational change operating on processes and behaviours at all levels.”

Full article: https://news.yahoo.com/crushing-climate-impacts-hit-sooner-010253436.html

Urgh...

 

[WPMUFC]

Full article: https://news.yahoo.com/crushing-climate-impacts-hit-sooner-010253436.html

Urgh,...

“The worst is yet to come, affecting our children’s and grandchildren’s lives much more than our own,” the draft report states.

i'll try my best to vote for parties that have drastic climate policies to help try and solve this crisis for us and the next generation, but every time we get new reports, I'm so glad I decided to never have children.

 

[Irwin99]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...eratures-limits-human-climate-emergency-earth

Depressing.

 

[Cal?]

Thanos was right

 

[kidbob]

This shit is going to make Covid look like child's play. Thank God we never listen to the experts. The worst is that there isn't a thing that the average Joe can do because the top polluters by far are the rich and they are just going to let us die. If ever there was a time for mass rebellion is it now but to be honest its probably a good thing that we die off. Climate change won't be the end of Earth it may be just the end of humans. Good riddance.

 

[Pexbo]

This shit is going to make Covid look like child's play. Thank God we never listen to the experts. The worst is that there isn't a thing that the average Joe can do because the top polluters by far are the rich and they are just going to let us die. If ever there was a time for mass rebellion is it now but to be honest its probably a good thing that we die off. Climate change won't be the end of Earth it may be just the end of humans. Good riddance.

Climate change will be the start of it, the wars and domestic unrest over the limited resources will be what kills the most.

 

[Cheimoon]

Climate change will be the start of it, the wars and domestic unrest over the limited resources will be what kills the most.

I've read it's already happening. I don't remember the details, but it's supposedly one of the triggers behind the war(s) in Syria. And I suppose you could also argue that desertification has contributed to various of the conflicts around the southern Sahara. Climate change isn't the only factor in either situation, but it won't ever be (or very rarely); it will be a trigger to exacerbate existing tensions into violent conflict.

 

[kidbob]

Climate change will be the start of it, the wars and domestic unrest over the limited resources will be what kills the most.

Yeah that's what I kind of meant in terms of child's play. I mean we have a 'refugee crisis' now apparently, imagine what it will be when those places become literally inhabitable. It makes me so sad for my daughter and I do really think sometimes that, as much as I lover her, it was somewhat inhumane to bring her into this World.

 

[kidbob]

I've read it's already happening. I don't remember the details, but it's supposedly one of the triggers behind the war(s) in Syria. And I suppose you could also argue that desertification has contributed to various of the conflicts around the southern Sahara. Climate change isn't the only factor in either situation, but it won't ever be (or very rarely); it will be a trigger to exacerbate existing tensions into violent conflict.

Just wait until clean drinking water becomes a rare and sought after thing. Which is horribly a real eventuality in a couple of life times.

 

[Cheimoon]

Just wait until clean drinking water becomes a rare and sought after thing. Which is horribly a real eventuality in a couple of life times.

Yep, we're almost there is many areas. And within a decade or so, we'll be seeing huge population displacements as well, as mass-inhabited coastal areas like the Nile Delta or Bangladesh will get into trouble due to rising waters.

But let's talk about this a little more. We can't let green policy hurt the economy. And is it really that bad? Sorry, I have the current electorate to consider you know!

 

[esmufc07]